Maxwell Week 7 Summary: Packers continue to climb higher

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association's 422 teams throughout the 2018 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:

- As expected Colquitt County dominated Alcovy in a 56-0 outing leaving only three games, all against region foes, on the remaining regular season schedule. The closest, Lowndes, is a three-touchdown underdog. Rush Propst’s team is now over two touchdowns better than their closest competitor, Grayson, whom they already defeated in Week 6, and has a 63.9% chance to win the state title. The win also pushed the Packer’s rating over 100.00, a significant milestone in the ratings that only 58 teams have accomplished since 1948.

- If you're following region standings, then 3-AAAAAA has the most parity left in any of them. Out of 1,000,000 simulations, there's only a 1.0% chance the region top four would finish the same way twice. On the other end of the spectrum,there’s a 76.1% chance that Region 6-AA will be 1) Hapeville Charter, 2) Douglass, 3) Washington, and 4) South Atlanta.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 14.13%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 1,083 of 1,145 total games including 0 tie(s) (94.59%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.73 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Home Advantage: 1.91

By Class

AAAAAAA				AAAAAA
Rank	Team	Rec	Rating	Rank	Team	Rec	Rating
1	Colquitt County	7-0	101.32	1	Lee County	6-0	80.12
2	Grayson	3-2	86.13	2	Coffee	6-0	72.63
3	Archer	4-1	84.77	3	Creekview	6-0	68.43
4	North Gwinnett	4-2	84.35	4	Harrison	6-0	65.76
5	Walton	5-0	83.71	5	Northside (Warner Robins)	3-3	64.16
6	Parkview	5-0	83.11	6	Valdosta	3-3	63.28
7	McEachern	4-1	81.82	7	Sequoyah	4-1	61.16
8	Lowndes	6-1	80.99	8	Allatoona	3-2	60.53
9	Hillgrove	5-0	75.81	9	Tucker	4-2	60.21
10	Mill Creek	4-2	74.36	10	Mays	3-2	59.49
11	Milton	3-2	72.18	11	Dacula	4-2	59.08
12	Tift County	4-2	71.88	12	Glynn Academy	2-4	56.59
13	Camden County	5-1	71.49	13	Douglas County	5-1	56.21
14	Brookwood	4-1	70.82	14	Centennial	3-2	54.43
15	Roswell	4-1	69.95	15	Alpharetta	3-2	53.96

AAAAA				AAAA
Rank	Team	Rec	Rating	Rank	Team	Rec	Rating
1	Rome	6-0	83.24	1	Blessed Trinity	5-0	83.76
2	Buford	4-2	76.88	2	Cartersville	6-0	75.63
3	Warner Robins	5-1	74.83	3	Troup	6-0	74.66
4	Jones County	6-0	71.19	4	Mary Persons	6-0	72.93
5	Stockbridge	6-0	70.53	5	St. Pius X	5-1	71.37
6	Dutchtown	6-0	66.98	6	Marist	5-1	67.45
7	Ware County	4-2	65.17	7	Burke County	4-2	60.33
8	Carrollton	5-1	63.68	8	Eastside	5-0	59.04
9	Wayne County	6-0	63.14	9	Sandy Creek	3-2	57.35
10	Veterans	6-0	57.77	10	Ridgeland	3-2	56.59
11	Southwest DeKalb	6-0	56.96	11	Chapel Hill	4-1	56.27
12	Kell	3-2	56.83	12	Flowery Branch	5-0	55.57
13	East Paulding	2-3	53.56	13	Woodward Academy	3-2	53.57
14	Locust Grove	2-4	52.91	14	Upson-Lee	4-2	52.75
15	Banneker	5-1	52.77	15	Cedartown	3-3	50.98

AAA				AA
Rank	Team	Rec	Rating	Rank	Team	Rec	Rating
1	Cedar Grove	5-1	73.06	1	Hapeville Charter	5-0	72.73
2	Calhoun	5-0	70.58	2	Callaway	5-1	60.77
3	Benedictine	4-1	70.56	3	Rockmart	6-0	59.76
4	Peach County	4-2	64.79	4	Dodge County	6-0	58.89
5	Greater Atlanta Christian	4-2	62.37	5	Thomasville	4-2	56.88
6	Westminster (Atlanta)	3-2	59.33	6	Rabun County	5-1	53.98
7	Monroe Area	6-0	58.85	7	Bremen	4-1	53.01
8	Crisp County	4-3	54.47	8	Washington County	5-0	51.88
9	Pace Academy	4-2	53.34	9	Fitzgerald	4-2	51.06
10	Jefferson	5-1	52.18	10	Brooks County	4-2	49.50
11	Dawson County	6-0	51.34	11	Vidalia	5-0	48.66
12	Lovett	2-4	50.66	12	Heard County	3-2	47.47
13	Liberty County	3-1	49.54	13	Dublin	5-1	47.16
14	North Hall	5-1	47.45	14	Douglass	5-1	46.16
15	Jackson	3-2	46.27	15	Early County	5-1	45.34

A - Public				A - Private
Rank	Team	Rec	Rating	Rank	Team	Rec	Rating
1	Irwin County	6-0	62.51	1	Eagle's Landing Christian	5-1	61.62
2	Clinch County	5-1	52.42	2	Athens Academy	5-0	56.23
3	Commerce	5-0	45.50	3	Prince Avenue Christian	5-1	51.07
4	Marion County	6-0	42.83	4	Fellowship Christian	5-0	44.12
5	Mount Zion (Carroll)	5-1	38.69	5	Calvary Day	5-0	41.19
6	Charlton County	4-2	37.64	6	George Walton Academy	6-0	40.68
7	Pelham	6-0	36.93	7	Mount Paran Christian	3-2	39.33
8	Schley County	4-1	33.37	8	Savannah Christian	4-1	38.83
9	Emanuel County Institute	3-3	32.57	9	Darlington	5-1	37.56
10	Mitchell County	4-1	30.79	10	Aquinas	5-0	35.84
11	Dooly County	2-3	30.73	11	Mount Vernon Presbyterian	5-1	35.22
12	Macon County	2-3	28.73	12	Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)	4-2	34.46
13	Turner County	4-2	28.50	13	Whitefield Academy	5-1	31.18
14	Manchester	3-2	28.46	14	Wesleyan	2-4	31.02
15	Wilcox County	4-2	26.78	15	Christian Heritage	4-1	31.00

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

Rank	Team	Region	Rec	Rating	SchStr	Rank
1 [1]	Colquitt County	1 - AAAAAAA	7-0	101.32	67.76	9
2 [2]	Grayson	8 - AAAAAAA	3-2	86.13	72.79	4
3 [3]	Archer	8 - AAAAAAA	4-1	84.77	71.91	5
4 [4]	North Gwinnett	6 - AAAAAAA	4-2	84.35	65.28	11
5 [1]	Blessed Trinity	7 - AAAA	5-0	83.76	60.52	20
6 [5]	Walton	4 - AAAAAAA	5-0	83.71	60.79	18
7 [1]	Rome	7 - AAAAA	6-0	83.24	45.92	110
8 [6]	Parkview	7 - AAAAAAA	5-0	83.11	69.62	7
9 [7]	McEachern	3 - AAAAAAA	4-1	81.82	60.68	19
10 [8]	Lowndes	1 - AAAAAAA	6-1	80.99	52.73	54
11 [1]	Lee County	1 - AAAAAA	6-0	80.12	40.71	157
12 [2]	Buford	8 - AAAAA	4-2	76.88	52.54	55
13 [9]	Hillgrove	3 - AAAAAAA	5-0	75.81	54.57	46
14 [2]	Cartersville	5 - AAAA	6-0	75.63	38.83	175
15 [3]	Warner Robins	1 - AAAAA	5-1	74.83	59.45	24
16 [3]	Troup	5 - AAAA	6-0	74.66	51.98	58
17 [10]	Mill Creek	6 - AAAAAAA	4-2	74.36	61.19	17
18 [1]	Cedar Grove	5 - AAA	5-1	73.06	36.97	192
19 [4]	Mary Persons	2 - AAAA	6-0	72.93	43.55	128
20 [1]	Hapeville Charter	6 - AA	5-0	72.73	30.73	249
21 [2]	Coffee	1 - AAAAAA	6-0	72.63	34.99	211
22 [11]	Milton	5 - AAAAAAA	3-2	72.18	73.89	2
23 [12]	Tift County	1 - AAAAAAA	4-2	71.88	58.22	28
24 [13]	Camden County	1 - AAAAAAA	5-1	71.49	53.04	52
25 [5]	St. Pius X	8 - AAAA	5-1	71.37	49.02	75
26 [4]	Jones County	4 - AAAAA	6-0	71.19	47.44	90
27 [14]	Brookwood	7 - AAAAAAA	4-1	70.82	48.44	81
28 [2]	Calhoun	6 - AAA	5-0	70.58	30.93	248
29 [3]	Benedictine	3 - AAA	4-1	70.56	8.10	400
30 [5]	Stockbridge	4 - AAAAA	6-0	70.53	39.04	171
31 [15]	Roswell	4 - AAAAAAA	4-1	69.95	58.52	26
32 [3]	Creekview	6 - AAAAAA	6-0	68.43	47.40	91
33 [16]	Marietta	3 - AAAAAAA	1-4	68.42	75.81	1
34 [17]	Westlake	2 - AAAAAAA	3-2	68.30	62.53	14
35 [6]	Marist	7 - AAAA	5-1	67.45	46.56	101
36 [18]	North Paulding	3 - AAAAAAA	5-0	67.32	43.66	126
37 [6]	Dutchtown	4 - AAAAA	6-0	66.98	43.38	129
38 [19]	North Cobb	3 - AAAAAAA	5-0	66.63	50.35	66
39 [20]	Norcross	7 - AAAAAAA	2-4	66.10	73.80	3
40 [4]	Harrison	6 - AAAAAA	6-0	65.76	41.72	145
41 [7]	Ware County	2 - AAAAA	4-2	65.17	62.29	15
42 [21]	South Forsyth	5 - AAAAAAA	3-2	65.11	59.47	23
43 [4]	Peach County	4 - AAA	4-2	64.79	53.47	51
44 [5]	Northside (Warner Robins)	1 - AAAAAA	3-3	64.16	57.04	33
45 [8]	Carrollton	7 - AAAAA	5-1	63.68	46.10	108
46 [6]	Valdosta	1 - AAAAAA	3-3	63.28	66.82	10
47 [9]	Wayne County	2 - AAAAA	6-0	63.14	39.32	167
48 [22]	Mountain View	6 - AAAAAAA	4-2	62.72	57.20	32
49 [23]	Wheeler	2 - AAAAAAA	5-0	62.55	46.30	105
50 [1]	Irwin County	2 - A	6-0	62.51	40.15	161
51 [5]	Greater Atlanta Christian	7 - AAA	4-2	62.37	46.33	104
52 [1]	Eagle's Landing Christian	5 - A	5-1	61.62	34.74	213
53 [7]	Sequoyah	6 - AAAAAA	4-1	61.16	46.80	96
54 [2]	Callaway	5 - AA	5-1	60.77	30.15	251
55 [8]	Allatoona	6 - AAAAAA	3-2	60.53	49.00	77
56 [7]	Burke County	3 - AAAA	4-2	60.33	45.15	114
57 [9]	Tucker	4 - AAAAAA	4-2	60.21	45.95	109
58 [3]	Rockmart	7 - AA	6-0	59.76	28.83	267
59 [10]	Mays	5 - AAAAAA	3-2	59.49	40.08	162
60 [6]	Westminster (Atlanta)	5 - AAA	3-2	59.33	58.06	29
61 [11]	Dacula	8 - AAAAAA	4-2	59.08	46.60	99
62 [8]	Eastside	4 - AAAA	5-0	59.04	35.61	200
63 [24]	Newton	8 - AAAAAAA	3-3	58.95	54.57	45
64 [4]	Dodge County	3 - AA	6-0	58.89	41.20	154
65 [7]	Monroe Area	8 - AAA	6-0	58.85	29.75	256
66 [25]	Collins Hill	6 - AAAAAAA	1-4	58.16	70.66	6
67 [26]	West Forsyth	5 - AAAAAAA	1-4	57.99	61.64	16
68 [10]	Veterans	1 - AAAAA	6-0	57.77	42.08	142
69 [9]	Sandy Creek	5 - AAAA	3-2	57.35	47.11	93
70 [11]	Southwest DeKalb	5 - AAAAA	6-0	56.96	31.80	236
71 [5]	Thomasville	1 - AA	4-2	56.88	53.49	50
72 [12]	Kell	7 - AAAAA	3-2	56.83	51.01	62
73 [10]	Ridgeland	6 - AAAA	3-2	56.59	54.61	44
74 [12]	Glynn Academy	2 - AAAAAA	2-4	56.59	55.33	38
75 [11]	Chapel Hill	5 - AAAA	4-1	56.27	47.06	94
76 [2]	Athens Academy	8 - A	5-0	56.23	29.14	262
77 [13]	Douglas County	5 - AAAAAA	5-1	56.21	42.25	140
78 [12]	Flowery Branch	7 - AAAA	5-0	55.57	35.56	201
79 [27]	Woodstock	4 - AAAAAAA	2-3	54.63	56.33	36
80 [8]	Crisp County	1 - AAA	4-3	54.47	53.88	48
81 [14]	Centennial	7 - AAAAAA	3-2	54.43	51.72	59
82 [6]	Rabun County	8 - AA	5-1	53.98	27.82	273
83 [15]	Alpharetta	7 - AAAAAA	3-2	53.96	47.93	84
84 [13]	Woodward Academy	4 - AAAA	3-2	53.57	31.08	245
85 [13]	East Paulding	7 - AAAAA	2-3	53.56	57.21	31
86 [9]	Pace Academy	5 - AAA	4-2	53.34	29.37	260
87 [7]	Bremen	5 - AA	4-1	53.01	40.59	159
88 [14]	Locust Grove	4 - AAAAA	2-4	52.91	62.91	12
89 [15]	Banneker	6 - AAAAA	5-1	52.77	36.48	194
90 [14]	Upson-Lee	2 - AAAA	4-2	52.75	49.85	69
91 [2]	Clinch County	2 - A	5-1	52.42	35.26	205
92 [16]	Stephenson	4 - AAAAAA	4-1	52.38	31.06	246
93 [28]	Etowah	4 - AAAAAAA	2-4	52.35	56.84	34
94 [10]	Jefferson	8 - AAA	5-1	52.18	31.31	242
95 [16]	Thomas County Central	1 - AAAAA	4-1	52.07	41.26	151
96 [8]	Washington County	3 - AA	5-0	51.88	32.87	229
97 [29]	East Coweta	2 - AAAAAAA	0-5	51.66	69.42	8
98 [30]	Cherokee	4 - AAAAAAA	3-3	51.60	55.05	40
99 [17]	Dalton	6 - AAAAAA	3-3	51.39	48.73	79
100 [11]	Dawson County	7 - AAA	6-0	51.34	26.47	284
101 [18]	Brunswick	2 - AAAAAA	3-3	51.26	41.32	150
102 [19]	Lanier	8 - AAAAAA	4-2	51.23	44.78	118
103 [3]	Prince Avenue Christian	8 - A	5-1	51.07	28.04	271
104 [9]	Fitzgerald	1 - AA	4-2	51.06	40.62	158
105 [15]	Cedartown	5 - AAAA	3-3	50.98	46.37	102
106 [16]	West Laurens	2 - AAAA	4-2	50.68	41.18	155
107 [12]	Lovett	5 - AAA	2-4	50.66	59.65	22
108 [31]	Kennesaw Mountain	3 - AAAAAAA	4-1	50.59	41.71	146
109 [32]	Newnan	2 - AAAAAAA	2-3	50.18	52.08	57
110 [33]	South Gwinnett	8 - AAAAAAA	2-4	49.67	57.60	30
111 [13]	Liberty County	2 - AAA	3-1	49.54	41.64	147
112 [10]	Brooks County	1 - AA	4-2	49.50	42.64	138
113 [34]	Central Gwinnett	7 - AAAAAAA	2-4	49.16	53.03	53
114 [17]	Starr's Mill	3 - AAAAA	3-3	49.06	45.51	113
115 [35]	Meadowcreek	7 - AAAAAAA	6-0	48.91	24.80	292
116 [17]	Howard	2 - AAAA	4-2	48.74	43.30	130
117 [36]	Pebblebrook	2 - AAAAAAA	2-3	48.72	50.35	65
118 [20]	Johns Creek	7 - AAAAAA	4-1	48.67	28.85	266
119 [11]	Vidalia	2 - AA	5-0	48.66	20.11	333
120 [18]	Cairo	1 - AAAA	4-2	48.62	38.98	173
121 [19]	Carver (Columbus)	1 - AAAA	6-0	48.41	29.90	254
122 [21]	Richmond Hill	2 - AAAAAA	2-3	48.36	54.78	43
123 [20]	Oconee County	8 - AAAA	4-2	48.04	42.69	135
124 [18]	Hiram	7 - AAAAA	3-2	47.85	44.37	121
125 [12]	Heard County	5 - AA	3-2	47.47	42.68	136
126 [14]	North Hall	7 - AAA	5-1	47.45	28.01	272
127 [13]	Dublin	3 - AA	5-1	47.16	29.58	259
128 [22]	Effingham County	2 - AAAAAA	4-2	47.11	35.08	208
129 [19]	Clarke Central	8 - AAAAA	3-3	47.09	47.58	88
130 [20]	Griffin	3 - AAAAA	3-3	46.93	44.60	120
131 [23]	Creekside	5 - AAAAAA	3-3	46.65	46.66	98
132 [21]	Bainbridge	1 - AAAAA	2-4	46.43	48.92	78
133 [15]	Jackson	4 - AAA	3-2	46.27	44.64	119
134 [14]	Douglass	6 - AA	5-1	46.16	27.19	279
135 [24]	Northgate	5 - AAAAAA	3-3	46.01	47.99	83
136 [22]	Cedar Shoals	8 - AAAAA	4-2	45.74	39.71	164
137 [21]	Thomson	3 - AAAA	2-4	45.65	50.19	67
138 [22]	Perry	2 - AAAA	4-2	45.55	42.17	141
139 [3]	Commerce	8 - A	5-0	45.50	23.19	311
140 [15]	Early County	1 - AA	5-1	45.34	31.77	237
141 [25]	Lovejoy	4 - AAAAAA	3-3	45.02	46.37	103
142 [23]	Richmond Academy	3 - AAAA	6-0	45.00	26.37	286
143 [37]	Lambert	5 - AAAAAAA	3-2	44.95	41.21	153
144 [38]	North Forsyth	5 - AAAAAAA	2-3	44.88	46.27	106
145 [24]	Stephens County	8 - AAAA	4-2	44.70	41.24	152
146 [16]	Pierce County	2 - AAA	5-0	44.53	10.95	394
147 [17]	Westside (Macon)	4 - AAA	4-2	44.23	36.13	195
148 [4]	Fellowship Christian	6 - A	5-0	44.12	22.99	314
149 [39]	Lassiter	4 - AAAAAAA	1-4	44.00	54.99	41
150 [26]	Houston County	1 - AAAAAA	2-4	43.54	49.02	76
151 [23]	Arabia Mountain	5 - AAAAA	3-3	43.37	43.05	133
152 [27]	Alexander	5 - AAAAAA	2-3	43.36	43.11	132
153 [4]	Marion County	4 - A	6-0	42.83	19.92	337
154 [28]	Hughes	5 - AAAAAA	1-5	42.57	55.05	39
155 [29]	Sprayberry	6 - AAAAAA	1-4	42.52	59.25	25
156 [30]	Mundy's Mill	4 - AAAAAA	5-2	42.46	33.47	223
157 [40]	Campbell	2 - AAAAAAA	1-4	42.34	62.82	13
158 [16]	Jefferson County	4 - AA	4-2	42.21	29.62	258
159 [25]	Pickens	6 - AAAA	6-0	41.98	6.74	403
160 [24]	Jonesboro	3 - AAAAA	3-3	41.88	47.52	89
161 [17]	Swainsboro	2 - AA	3-2	41.43	37.38	189
162 [26]	Spalding	2 - AAAA	3-3	41.25	40.45	160
163 [5]	Calvary Day	3 - A	5-0	41.19	2.19	412
164 [25]	Statesboro	2 - AAAAA	2-4	40.89	49.30	73
165 [6]	George Walton Academy	8 - A	6-0	40.68	12.76	386
166 [31]	Heritage (Conyers)	3 - AAAAAA	2-3	40.65	44.18	122
167 [26]	New Hampstead	2 - AAAAA	3-2	40.61	33.21	225
168 [27]	Woodland (Stockbridge)	4 - AAAAA	2-4	40.60	48.69	80
169 [18]	Appling County	2 - AAA	2-3	40.40	47.66	87
170 [28]	Riverwood	6 - AAAAA	4-2	40.37	29.90	253
171 [29]	Villa Rica	7 - AAAAA	3-2	40.29	36.00	197
172 [18]	Washington	6 - AA	5-2	39.92	23.41	308
173 [32]	Winder-Barrow	8 - AAAAAA	2-4	39.72	44.13	123
174 [19]	Union County	8 - AA	6-0	39.69	13.92	376
175 [30]	Carver (Atlanta)	6 - AAAAA	3-3	39.65	37.90	185
176 [31]	Harris County	1 - AAAAA	2-4	39.36	49.51	70
177 [7]	Mount Paran Christian	6 - A	3-2	39.33	17.65	351
178 [32]	Ola	4 - AAAAA	1-5	39.01	56.64	35
179 [33]	Riverdale	3 - AAAAA	5-1	38.97	27.05	280
180 [33]	South Paulding	5 - AAAAAA	1-4	38.97	51.49	60
181 [19]	Pike County	4 - AAA	4-1	38.89	15.57	362
182 [8]	Savannah Christian	3 - A	4-1	38.83	17.96	350
183 [27]	Americus-Sumter	1 - AAAA	2-3	38.80	39.05	170
184 [28]	North Oconee	8 - AAAA	5-1	38.70	27.20	278
185 [5]	Mount Zion (Carroll)	6 - A	5-1	38.69	20.90	327
186 [29]	Baldwin	3 - AAAA	1-5	38.59	58.29	27
187 [20]	Berrien	1 - AA	5-1	38.41	28.79	268
188 [30]	West Hall	7 - AAAA	2-4	38.27	46.84	95
189 [34]	Union Grove	4 - AAAAA	3-2	38.09	39.01	172
190 [35]	Maynard Jackson	6 - AAAAA	3-3	37.85	34.69	214
191 [34]	Alcovy	3 - AAAAAA	2-3	37.82	53.97	47
192 [36]	Loganville	8 - AAAAA	3-3	37.76	41.75	144
193 [6]	Charlton County	2 - A	4-2	37.64	32.20	233
194 [9]	Darlington	6 - A	5-1	37.56	24.51	296
195 [35]	Pope	7 - AAAAAA	2-4	37.31	46.13	107
196 [20]	North Murray	6 - AAA	4-2	37.30	29.64	257
197 [21]	Southwest	3 - AA	2-3	37.30	47.25	92
198 [36]	Bradwell Institute	2 - AAAAAA	2-4	37.27	46.58	100
199 [37]	Woodland (Cartersville)	7 - AAAAA	4-2	37.16	32.72	230
200 [7]	Pelham	1 - A	6-0	36.93	-7.54	419
201 [37]	Habersham Central	8 - AAAAAA	3-3	36.86	38.64	177
202 [38]	Evans	3 - AAAAAA	0-5	36.40	51.27	61
203 [31]	Columbus	1 - AAAA	2-3	36.34	44.95	117
204 [32]	Northwest Whitfield	6 - AAAA	3-2	36.27	11.88	390
205 [39]	Northview	7 - AAAAAA	4-2	36.08	29.76	255
206 [33]	Salem	4 - AAAA	3-2	35.94	35.64	199
207 [10]	Aquinas	7 - A	5-0	35.84	12.58	387
208 [40]	Gainesville	8 - AAAAAA	0-6	35.82	53.68	49
209 [38]	Eagle's Landing	4 - AAAAA	1-5	35.73	46.73	97
210 [22]	Elbert County	8 - AA	4-2	35.55	21.58	324
211 [41]	Peachtree Ridge	6 - AAAAAAA	0-6	35.46	60.27	21
212 [11]	Mount Vernon Presbyterian	5 - A	5-1	35.22	22.71	316
213 [21]	Jenkins	3 - AAA	4-1	34.89	20.27	332
214 [41]	South Cobb	6 - AAAAAA	1-5	34.49	54.93	42
215 [12]	Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)	5 - A	4-2	34.46	28.29	270
216 [34]	Hardaway	1 - AAAA	3-3	33.98	31.66	238
217 [35]	LaGrange	5 - AAAA	1-4	33.66	45.01	116
218 [8]	Schley County	4 - A	4-1	33.37	20.85	328
219 [42]	Rockdale County	8 - AAAAAAA	2-4	33.35	39.51	165
220 [36]	Central (Carrollton)	5 - AAAA	2-4	33.15	45.90	111
221 [42]	Grovetown	3 - AAAAAA	1-4	32.99	45.70	112
222 [22]	Southeast Bulloch	3 - AAA	4-0	32.97	17.21	354
223 [43]	Shiloh	8 - AAAAAAA	2-4	32.66	36.03	196
224 [9]	Emanuel County Institute	3 - A	3-3	32.57	26.21	288
225 [37]	Denmark	7 - AAAA	4-2	32.48	27.60	275
226 [23]	Cook	1 - AAA	2-5	32.37	41.62	148
227 [44]	Forsyth Central	5 - AAAAAAA	4-1	32.20	13.67	379
228 [24]	Hart County	8 - AAA	2-3	32.05	35.22	207
229 [38]	Westover	1 - AAAA	2-3	31.95	33.63	221
230 [23]	Chattooga	7 - AA	4-2	31.61	23.82	301
231 [25]	Central (Macon)	4 - AAA	1-5	31.58	42.66	137
232 [43]	Drew	4 - AAAAAA	1-4	31.26	47.90	85
233 [13]	Whitefield Academy	6 - A	5-1	31.18	12.14	389
234 [39]	Northside (Columbus)	1 - AAAA	2-4	31.03	37.66	186
235 [14]	Wesleyan	5 - A	2-4	31.02	38.40	180
236 [15]	Christian Heritage	6 - A	4-1	31.00	19.95	336
237 [10]	Mitchell County	1 - A	4-1	30.79	6.54	404
238 [11]	Dooly County	4 - A	2-3	30.73	35.40	202
239 [44]	Apalachee	8 - AAAAAA	3-3	30.73	33.80	219
240 [24]	Harlem	4 - AA	4-2	30.55	23.84	300
241 [25]	Northeast	3 - AA	2-4	30.49	37.55	187
242 [45]	Discovery	6 - AAAAAAA	1-4	30.28	49.46	71
243 [26]	Pepperell	7 - AA	4-2	30.25	21.54	325
244 [39]	Paulding County	7 - AAAAA	0-6	30.09	49.40	72
245 [45]	Morrow	4 - AAAAAA	1-5	30.07	50.41	63
246 [46]	River Ridge	6 - AAAAAA	1-5	30.07	55.89	37
247 [27]	Toombs County	2 - AA	4-2	29.90	22.42	317
248 [47]	New Manchester	5 - AAAAAA	1-5	29.61	48.08	82
249 [48]	North Atlanta	7 - AAAAAA	3-2	29.49	28.93	265
250 [49]	M.L. King	4 - AAAAAA	1-4	29.44	41.88	143
251 [40]	White County	7 - AAAA	1-5	29.12	43.75	125
252 [50]	Cambridge	7 - AAAAAA	2-4	28.93	40.78	156
253 [16]	Hebron Christian Academy	8 - A	3-2	28.93	23.64	304
254 [26]	Ringgold	6 - AAA	2-4	28.88	35.39	203
255 [12]	Macon County	4 - A	2-3	28.73	24.59	294
256 [28]	Metter	2 - AA	4-2	28.50	23.90	299
257 [13]	Turner County	2 - A	4-2	28.50	19.84	338
258 [14]	Manchester	4 - A	3-2	28.46	13.62	381
259 [40]	Decatur	6 - AAAAA	2-3	28.33	32.13	234
260 [46]	Duluth	6 - AAAAAAA	2-4	28.31	42.71	134
261 [51]	Tri-Cities	5 - AAAAAA	0-5	28.21	49.95	68
262 [41]	Whitewater	3 - AAAAA	0-6	28.13	50.37	64
263 [29]	Bleckley County	3 - AA	2-4	28.11	35.05	209
264 [30]	South Atlanta	6 - AA	4-2	28.03	18.58	343
265 [17]	Mount de Sales	7 - A	5-0	27.99	17.37	353
266 [42]	South Effingham	2 - AAAAA	2-4	27.92	35.31	204
267 [31]	Spencer	5 - AA	1-5	27.77	36.84	193
268 [41]	Madison County	8 - AAAA	2-4	27.72	33.63	220
269 [32]	Screven County	4 - AA	4-2	27.42	14.63	373
270 [18]	Savannah Country Day	3 - A	4-1	27.32	15.31	364
271 [27]	Morgan County	8 - AAA	2-4	27.28	34.28	216
272 [42]	Hampton	4 - AAAA	2-3	27.23	31.46	240
273 [33]	Hephzibah	4 - AA	4-2	27.10	22.25	320
274 [52]	Lakeside (Evans)	3 - AAAAAA	2-2	26.81	26.39	285
275 [15]	Wilcox County	2 - A	4-2	26.78	18.36	346
276 [43]	Luella	4 - AAAA	2-3	26.46	38.34	181
277 [53]	Greenbrier	3 - AAAAAA	0-5	26.41	43.92	124
278 [43]	Cass	7 - AAAAA	1-5	26.39	43.59	127
279 [44]	Walnut Grove	8 - AAAAA	1-5	26.35	38.48	179
280 [16]	Claxton	3 - A	4-1	26.25	20.09	334
281 [44]	Shaw	1 - AAAA	3-2	26.22	24.54	295
282 [19]	Brookstone	4 - A	4-1	26.05	3.13	409
283 [45]	Lithonia	5 - AAAAA	4-2	25.88	20.01	335
284 [34]	Jeff Davis	2 - AA	5-1	25.34	14.07	375
285 [17]	Atkinson County	2 - A	3-3	24.63	27.62	274
286 [18]	Hancock Central	7 - A	4-1	24.35	12.79	385
287 [28]	Adairsville	6 - AAA	3-3	24.31	23.95	298
288 [46]	Miller Grove	5 - AAAAA	1-4	24.22	38.22	183
289 [47]	North Springs	6 - AAAAA	1-4	24.15	32.31	232
290 [29]	East Hall	7 - AAA	1-5	24.06	45.14	115
291 [30]	Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe	6 - AAA	4-2	24.04	16.54	359
292 [48]	Columbia	5 - AAAAA	1-5	23.64	49.21	74
293 [49]	McIntosh	3 - AAAAA	1-4	23.58	34.26	217
294 [20]	North Cobb Christian	6 - A	5-0	23.50	12.39	388
295 [31]	Windsor Forest	3 - AAA	2-2	23.49	23.36	309
296 [32]	Franklin County	8 - AAA	1-4	23.00	38.25	182
297 [19]	Telfair County	2 - A	2-4	22.98	26.92	281
298 [21]	Stratford Academy	7 - A	1-4	22.97	31.52	239
299 [54]	Mount Zion (Jonesboro)	4 - AAAAAA	1-5	22.77	39.09	169
300 [55]	Chattahoochee	7 - AAAAAA	0-6	22.59	39.25	168
301 [45]	Heritage (Ringgold)	6 - AAAA	2-4	22.43	30.30	250
302 [33]	Monroe	1 - AAA	3-4	22.11	29.16	261
303 [22]	Holy Innocents	5 - A	2-4	21.93	28.74	269
304 [23]	Pinecrest Academy	6 - A	2-3	21.24	24.73	293
305 [35]	Butler	4 - AA	2-3	20.90	26.75	283
306 [20]	Trion	6 - A	4-2	20.67	13.90	377
307 [34]	Sonoraville	6 - AAA	2-3	20.43	25.87	290
308 [21]	Greene County	7 - A	3-2	20.17	15.20	365
309 [35]	Jackson County	8 - AAA	2-4	20.13	25.90	289
310 [22]	Washington-Wilkes	7 - A	2-4	19.94	23.18	312
311 [36]	Bacon County	2 - AA	1-5	19.92	35.23	206
312 [47]	Lakeside (Atlanta)	7 - AAAAAAA	1-5	19.68	37.29	190
313 [37]	B.E.S.T. Academy	6 - AA	1-5	19.68	42.30	139
314 [50]	Grady	6 - AAAAA	1-5	19.67	32.93	228
315 [51]	Fayette County	3 - AAAAA	0-5	19.23	35.01	210
316 [38]	Lamar County	5 - AA	3-3	18.86	17.05	355
317 [56]	Dunwoody	7 - AAAAAA	1-5	18.80	38.96	174
318 [46]	LaFayette	6 - AAAA	4-2	18.73	14.87	371
319 [23]	Jenkins County	3 - A	3-3	18.47	15.38	363
320 [47]	Henry County	4 - AAAA	0-5	18.15	38.56	178
321 [24]	Montgomery County	3 - A	3-2	18.12	11.78	391
322 [36]	Haralson County	6 - AAA	4-1	17.85	6.09	406
323 [37]	Brantley County	2 - AAA	1-4	17.70	28.99	263
324 [38]	Islands	3 - AAA	1-4	17.53	31.17	244
325 [39]	Tattnall County	2 - AAA	0-5	17.26	34.59	215
326 [25]	Chattahoochee County	1 - A	4-2	16.85	10.82	395
327 [48]	North Clayton	4 - AAAA	0-5	16.71	47.69	86
328 [24]	Tattnall Square	7 - A	3-3	16.49	11.19	393
329 [26]	Lincoln County	7 - A	2-4	16.26	19.75	339
330 [27]	Johnson County	3 - A	3-2	16.06	13.45	382
331 [25]	Strong Rock Christian	5 - A	3-3	15.97	19.29	340
332 [39]	Coosa	7 - AA	1-5	15.95	27.34	276
333 [40]	Therrell	6 - AA	1-5	15.83	43.26	131
334 [41]	Laney	4 - AA	3-3	15.61	20.56	331
335 [26]	Mount Pisgah Christian	6 - A	2-4	15.38	23.70	303
336 [28]	Taylor County	4 - A	2-3	15.33	15.13	368
337 [49]	Cross Creek	3 - AAAA	3-2	15.32	10.61	396
338 [50]	Chestatee	7 - AAAA	1-5	15.19	38.76	176
339 [27]	First Presbyterian	7 - A	1-4	14.90	26.83	282
340 [42]	Monticello	8 - AA	2-4	14.87	25.46	291
341 [43]	KIPP Atlanta Collegiate	6 - AA	2-4	14.79	23.78	302
342 [40]	Worth County	1 - AAA	1-5	14.72	39.33	166
343 [52]	Johnson (Gainesville)	8 - AAAAA	4-2	13.82	3.03	410
344 [28]	Athens Christian	8 - A	2-3	13.78	20.64	330
345 [51]	Dougherty	1 - AAAA	0-5	13.77	41.51	149
346 [44]	McNair	6 - AA	2-4	12.87	33.01	226
347 [57]	Forest Park	4 - AAAAAA	0-5	12.86	32.51	231
348 [29]	St. Francis	6 - A	2-3	11.58	13.22	383
349 [52]	Southeast Whitfield	6 - AAAA	2-4	11.24	24.48	297
350 [45]	Model	7 - AA	2-4	11.01	18.20	348
351 [29]	Miller County	1 - A	2-3	10.69	14.91	370
352 [41]	Redan	5 - AAA	0-6	10.48	39.94	163
353 [42]	Beach	3 - AAA	0-4	10.40	37.47	188
354 [46]	Banks County	8 - AA	3-3	10.32	8.13	399
355 [47]	Bryan County	2 - AA	1-4	9.62	26.36	287
356 [30]	McIntosh County Academy	3 - A	0-5	9.55	34.94	212
357 [31]	Gordon Lee	6 - A	2-4	9.18	18.37	345
358 [32]	Warren County	7 - A	3-3	8.93	9.64	397
359 [48]	East Laurens	3 - AA	1-5	8.74	32.93	227
360 [33]	Bowdon	6 - A	0-5	8.61	23.11	313
361 [49]	Putnam County	8 - AA	1-5	7.90	28.98	264
362 [53]	Druid Hills	4 - AAAA	2-3	7.87	19.21	341
363 [53]	Lithia Springs	6 - AAAAA	2-4	7.76	21.49	326
364 [43]	Lumpkin County	7 - AAA	2-3	7.49	14.78	372
365 [30]	Riverside Military Academy	8 - A	2-3	7.34	15.05	369
366 [34]	Hawkinsville	4 - A	2-3	7.07	16.78	358
367 [44]	Fannin County	7 - AAA	2-3	6.47	8.02	401
368 [35]	Seminole County	1 - A	4-2	6.39	-2.35	416
369 [36]	Greenville	4 - A	1-4	6.07	27.27	277
370 [31]	Landmark Christian	5 - A	2-4	5.32	13.75	378
371 [50]	Jordan	5 - AA	2-4	5.20	12.89	384
372 [51]	Glenn Hills	4 - AA	0-5	5.12	22.40	318
373 [37]	Wilkinson County	7 - A	0-5	4.90	30.94	247
374 [52]	Temple	5 - AA	1-5	3.99	23.56	307
375 [54]	Chamblee	5 - AAAAA	0-6	3.97	52.18	56
376 [32]	Walker	6 - A	0-5	3.68	22.01	322
377 [45]	Long County	2 - AAA	0-5	2.70	37.05	191
378 [46]	Towers	5 - AAA	0-6	2.69	33.53	222
379 [53]	Westside (Augusta)	4 - AA	1-4	0.93	20.79	329
380 [54]	Dade County	7 - AA	1-5	0.76	17.38	352
381 [58]	Osborne	6 - AAAAAA	0-6	0.75	33.34	224
382 [38]	Portal	3 - A	1-4	0.26	19.08	342
383 [33]	Georgia Military College	7 - A	3-3	-0.12	1.09	413
384 [39]	Towns County	8 - A	2-4	-0.18	37.95	184
385 [34]	Providence Christian	8 - A	2-3	-1.18	30.03	252
386 [47]	Kendrick	4 - AAA	1-5	-1.42	18.58	344
387 [55]	Gordon Central	7 - AA	1-5	-1.72	18.24	347
388 [40]	Terrell County	1 - A	1-5	-2.18	14.20	374
389 [56]	Armuchee	7 - AA	1-5	-2.83	16.82	357
390 [41]	Lanier County	2 - A	0-6	-3.38	23.62	305
391 [57]	Josey	4 - AA	0-5	-4.03	21.78	323
392 [48]	Coahulla Creek	6 - AAA	1-4	-4.10	16.89	356
393 [35]	Lakeview Academy	8 - A	0-5	-4.18	23.19	310
394 [49]	Johnson (Savannah)	3 - AAA	1-3	-4.34	35.81	198
395 [42]	Wheeler County	3 - A	1-4	-4.34	15.96	361
396 [50]	Rutland	4 - AAA	0-6	-4.66	22.38	319
397 [36]	King's Ridge Christian	6 - A	0-5	-4.89	18.17	349
398 [37]	Our Lady of Mercy	5 - A	0-6	-5.10	22.86	315
399 [38]	Pacelli	4 - A	3-3	-6.36	-2.11	415
400 [51]	Savannah	3 - AAA	0-5	-7.61	31.90	235
401 [52]	East Jackson	8 - AAA	1-5	-7.78	22.01	321
402 [48]	Berkmar	7 - AAAAAAA	2-4	-8.09	23.60	306
403 [58]	Social Circle	8 - AA	2-3	-8.14	-5.43	417
404 [53]	Groves	3 - AAA	1-5	-8.51	31.21	243
405 [43]	Calhoun County	1 - A	1-4	-8.82	7.01	402
406 [44]	Treutlen	3 - A	2-4	-9.51	5.24	408
407 [54]	Cherokee Bluff	7 - AAA	0-6	-11.00	31.37	241
408 [55]	Murray County	6 - AAA	0-6	-11.29	13.65	380
409 [59]	Oglethorpe County	8 - AA	1-5	-11.86	5.90	407
410 [45]	Crawford County	4 - A	2-3	-11.87	-8.91	420
411 [56]	Stone Mountain	5 - AAA	0-5	-12.56	34.06	218
412 [46]	Baconton Charter	1 - A	2-3	-14.24	2.44	411
413 [54]	Gilmer	6 - AAAA	0-5	-17.17	8.95	398
414 [47]	Central (Talbotton)	4 - A	0-5	-21.96	15.15	367
415 [55]	Clarkston	5 - AAAAA†	0-6	-23.15	16.32	360
416 [48]	Twiggs County	7 - A	0-6	-23.49	15.18	366
417 [49]	Stewart County	1 - A	2-4	-23.97	0.09	414
418 [1]	ACE Charter	7 - A†	3-4	-31.48	-6.39	418
419 [50]	Randolph-Clay	1 - A	0-5	-32.73	11.59	392
420 [2]	Glascock County	7 - A†	0-6	-38.53	-9.85	421
421 [3]	Pataula Charter	1 - A†	1-5	-48.98	-25.80	422
422 [56]	Cross Keys	5 - AAAAA†	0-7	-68.33	6.12	405

† - Plays a non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the Competitive Rating is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank	Region	Comp Rating	Avg Rating
1	1 - AAAAAAA	93.63	80.33
2	8 - AAAAAAA	81.73	56.03
3	3 - AAAAAAA	80.95	68.75
4	1 - AAAAAA	77.52	65.44
5	6 - AAAAAAA	77.04	53.28
6	4 - AAAAAAA	75.75	58.17
7	7 - AAAAAAA	75.65	52.26
8	5 - AAAA	73.25	54.67
9	7 - AAAA	72.76	43.92
10	7 - AAAAA	71.94	47.68
11	4 - AAAAA	70.95	51.19
12	6 - AAAAAA	68.55	48.85
13	5 - AAAAAAA	68.45	52.93
14	1 - AAAAA	67.66	53.39
15	2 - AAAAAAA	66.38	53.72
16	2 - AAAA	65.65	51.16
17	5 - AAA	65.25	39.14
18	8 - AAAAA	64.03	40.01
19	2 - AAAAA	62.62	47.25
20	8 - AAAA	61.87	44.99
21	5 - AAAAAA	59.34	43.46
22	6 - AA	58.07	28.31
23	1 - AA	57.92	48.29
24	2 - AAAAAA	57.84	48.22
25	4 - AAA	55.94	34.77
26	4 - AAAAAA	55.65	36.03
27	3 - AA	55.42	38.25
28	8 - AAAAAA	55.42	41.79
29	3 - AAAA	55.32	42.08
30	5 - AA	55.21	30.66
31	7 - AAA	55.16	26.47
32	7 - AAAAAA	54.67	36.41
33	2 - A	54.27	31.26
34	6 - AAA	53.55	22.34
35	3 - AAA	52.93	16.59
36	4 - AAAA	52.61	29.16
37	8 - AAA	52.15	29.61
38	8 - A	52.10	23.02
	8-Div A - A	52.67	34.96
	8-Div B - A	35.87	13.27
39	1 - AAAA	50.22	34.56
40	3 - AAAAA	49.96	35.61
41	5 - A	49.14	24.67
42	6 - AAAAA	48.62	31.60
43	6 - AAAA	47.95	25.60
44	2 - AAA	46.93	29.20
45	5 - AAAAA	46.72	29.01
46	1 - AAA	45.55	29.56
47	7 - AA	45.30	15.60
48	6 - A	45.14	22.22
	6-Div B - A	40.29	20.03
	6-Div A - A	39.18	24.33
49	2 - AA	44.73	28.90
50	8 - AA	44.62	16.49
51	3 - AAAAAA	44.12	33.54
52	3 - A	40.36	18.47
	3-Div A - A	39.89	24.77
	3-Div B - A	27.80	12.57
53	4 - A	39.87	16.65
	4-Div A - A	35.35	13.71
	4-Div B - A	33.61	18.83
54	4 - AA	37.68	18.72
55	7 - A	34.55	15.87
	7-Div B - A	31.65	17.98
	7-Div A - A	26.05	13.14
56	1 - A	29.35	1.70

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date	Team	Opponent	Score	Diff	Pct	Likelihood
08/17	Archer	Milton	19 - 21	12.60	77.9%	0.311
09/21	Lincoln County	Warren County	21 - 28	9.25	71.6%	0.346
09/14	Claxton	Montgomery County	0 - 41	6.22	65.1%	0.355
08/31	Liberty County	Statesboro	6 - 23	6.74	66.2%	0.366
08/24	Cedar Shoals	Winder-Barrow	7 - 14	7.93	68.9%	0.369
09/27	Hardaway	Shaw	28 - 30	7.75	68.5%	0.389
09/14	Adairsville	Haralson County	28 - 51	4.55	61.2%	0.403
08/24	Shiloh	Discovery	0 - 31	4.29	60.6%	0.403
09/14	Pepperell	Gordon Central	28 - 27	30.06	95.3%	0.404
09/28	Winder-Barrow	Apalachee	6 - 7	7.08	67.0%	0.404
09/14	Mount Zion (Carroll)	Christian Heritage	22 - 30	5.78	64.1%	0.404
08/17	Decatur	Lakeside (Atlanta)	20 - 21	6.74	66.2%	0.409
09/07	Toombs County	Claxton	14 - 21	5.56	63.5%	0.410
09/07	Newnan	Griffin	17 - 26	5.16	62.6%	0.412
08/24	Eagle's Landing Christian	Pace Academy	16 - 17	6.37	65.4%	0.415

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating	Date	Team	Opponent	Score	Diff	Pct
89.69	09/21	Colquitt County	Grayson	26 - 14	13.28	79.0%
85.19	10/12	Grayson	Archer	-	3.27	58.1%
83.99	09/14	Walton	North Gwinnett	27 - 24	1.27	53.2%
83.82	08/18	Colquitt County	McEachern	41 - 7	19.50	87.5%
81.71	10/26	Colquitt County	Lowndes	-	22.24	90.2%
81.65	08/31	Parkview	Lowndes	39 - 27	4.03	59.9%
78.52	09/21	Archer	Buford	48 - 24	9.81	72.7%
78.40	10/05	McEachern	Hillgrove	-	4.09	60.1%
77.19	09/14	Colquitt County	Warner Robins	41 - 14	24.58	92.1%
76.94	08/18	Walton	Mill Creek	48 - 27	9.34	71.8%
76.05	10/05	North Gwinnett	Mill Creek	-	11.90	76.7%
76.04	09/07	Archer	Mill Creek	42 - 0	12.32	77.4%
75.61	11/02	Lee County	Coffee	-	5.58	63.6%
75.41	09/14	Parkview	Tift County	31 - 28	9.31	71.7%
74.96	08/17	Blessed Trinity	St. Pius X	35 - 13	10.48	74.0%