Sports

Maxwell Week 2 Summary: History says don't count out Sandy Creek, Washington County, or ELCA

By Loren Maxwell
Sept 1, 2015

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 417 teams throughout the 2015 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results after week 2:

- Sandy Creek was shocked by 37-point underdog Jonesboro 17-15 to drop nearly 13 points in the ratings. The shift brought them down from #2 to #7 in Class AAAA. Jonesboro received a nice boost of a full 15 points to land at #10 in the Class AAAA ratings. Still, the ratings would label Sandy Creek, currently 90-7 with three state titles and two undefeated seasons since 2008, as an 11-point favorite in a rematch.

- Washington County, last week's top team in Class AAA, also lost a close game to a heavy underdog with a 49-42 shootout to Thomson in spite of being a 24-point favorite. As a result, Washington County dropped over 11 points while Thomson shot up nearly 13 to debut at #8 in the Class AAAA ratings. However, the ratings still view Washington County, 38-4 over the last three years and last year's state runner-up, as a solid Class AAA contender at #3.

- Perhaps one of the more interesting results in this week's ratings is from the game between Eagle's Landing Christian Academy and Stockbridge. ELCA lost 28-21 despite a late comeback bid against Stockbridge, currently ranked #6 in Class AAAAA in the ratings and #3 in the AJC rankings. ELCA, last season's state runner-up, entered the game ranked #1 in Class A with a rating of 59.76, but dropped a mere 0.01 points with the loss and remained on top. ELCA is 56-14 since 2010, but that includes a 7-7 record last season when the school played a grueling out-of-region schedule including two games against the Class A-Private state champion and four teams from higher classes, all of which were among the losses.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 56.66%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 260 of 271 total games including 1 tie(s) (96.13%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.15 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.

Home Advantage: 2.36

By Class

AAAAAA AAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Colquitt County 2-0 101.27 1 Northside (Warner Robins) 1-0 81.78
2 McEachern 1-0 89.61 2 Creekside 2-0 76.89
3 Grayson 1-0 88.30 3 Ware County 2-0 75.20
4 Archer 2-0 87.37 4 Coffee 2-0 73.23
5 North Gwinnett 1-1 84.63 5 Mays 2-0 72.15
6 Norcross 2-0 84.53 6 Stockbridge 2-0 71.11
7 Mill Creek 2-0 84.10 7 East Paulding 2-0 70.00
8 Dacula 1-0 82.84 8 Gainesville 0-1 69.45
9 Valdosta 1-1 78.31 9 Kell 1-1 69.22
10 Tucker 1-1 78.28 10 Allatoona 1-1 68.96
11 Lassiter 2-0 78.20 11 Glynn Academy 2-0 67.99
12 Camden County 2-0 77.97 12 Stephenson 1-1 67.82
13 Peachtree Ridge 0-2 76.87 13 Warner Robins 1-0 67.32
14 Etowah 2-0 76.66 14 South Paulding 1-0 66.13
15 Walton 2-0 76.51 15 Houston County 1-0 65.00
AAAA AAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 2-0 96.53 1 Calhoun 1-0 81.28
2 Marist 0-1 74.86 2 Blessed Trinity 1-0 76.38
3 Cartersville 1-0 71.23 3 Washington County 0-1 70.64
4 St. Pius X 0-1 69.06 4 Westminster (Atlanta) 1-0 66.94
5 Griffin 1-0 68.84 5 Jefferson 2-0 66.62
6 Woodward Academy 1-0 68.70 6 Cedar Grove 1-1 62.64
7 Sandy Creek 1-1 68.48 7 Hart County 1-0 60.72
8 Thomson 2-0 65.82 8 Elbert County 1-0 59.41
9 West Laurens 2-0 63.10 9 Central (Carrollton) 1-0 57.57
10 Jonesboro 2-0 59.58 10 Peach County 0-1 56.51
11 Cairo 0-0 59.46 11 Westside (Macon) 1-0 55.84
12 Burke County 2-0 59.35 12 Cook 0-1 54.22
13 Mary Persons 1-0 59.21 13 Pierce County 1-0 51.23
14 Thomas County Central 0-1 58.34 14 Dodge County 2-0 50.89
15 Wayne County 1-1 57.22 15 Callaway 1-1 50.46
AA A
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Benedictine 1-0 76.04 1 Eagle's Landing Christian 1-1 59.75
2 Greater Atlanta Christian 1-1 72.47 2 Mount Paran Christian 2-0 56.08
3 Fitzgerald 2-0 63.43 3 Marion County 1-0 52.47
4 Vidalia 1-1 56.30 4 Prince Avenue Christian 1-0 50.96
5 Lovett 0-2 55.59 5 Calvary Day 1-0 49.75
6 Pace Academy 2-0 53.56 6 Clinch County 2-0 48.91
7 Thomasville 0-1 50.72 7 Landmark Christian 2-0 47.30
8 Brooks County 0-2 50.54 8 Charlton County 1-0 46.59
9 Dublin 2-0 47.57 9 Irwin County 1-0-1 46.58
10 Lamar County 1-1 47.07 10 Dooly County 1-0 45.43
11 Macon County 1-0 46.48 11 Lincoln County 2-0 45.34
12 Jefferson County 0-2 45.33 12 Aquinas 1-1 43.49
13 Darlington 2-0 44.22 13 Mount Pisgah Christian 1-0 43.38
14 Bowdon 0-1 44.04 14 Tattnall Square 1-0 41.53
15 Wesleyan 2-0 44.00 15 Hawkinsville 0-1 40.16

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Colquitt County 1-AAAAAA 2-0 101.27 84.63 6
2 [1] Buford 8-AAAA 2-0 96.53 43.00 195
3 [2] McEachern 4-AAAAAA 1-0 89.61 78.28 13
4 [3] Grayson 8-AAAAAA 1-0 88.30 71.80 34
5 [4] Archer 8-AAAAAA 2-0 87.37 67.63 48
6 [5] North Gwinnett 7-AAAAAA 1-1 84.63 88.48 3
7 [6] Norcross 7-AAAAAA 2-0 84.53 73.38 31
8 [7] Mill Creek 7-AAAAAA 2-0 84.10 60.89 73
9 [8] Dacula 8-AAAAAA 1-0 82.84 70.00 39
10 [1] Northside (Warner Robins) 2-AAAAA 1-0 81.78 75.70 24
11 [1] Calhoun 6-AAA 1-0 81.28 61.30 69
12 [9] Valdosta 1-AAAAAA 1-1 78.31 72.61 33
13 [10] Tucker 2-AAAAAA 1-1 78.28 89.61 2
14 [11] Lassiter 5-AAAAAA 2-0 78.20 71.77 35
15 [12] Camden County 1-AAAAAA 2-0 77.97 46.98 152
16 [2] Creekside 6-Div B-AAAAA 2-0 76.89 61.46 68
17 [13] Peachtree Ridge 7-AAAAAA 0-2 76.87 89.73 1
18 [14] Etowah 5-AAAAAA 2-0 76.66 56.54 99
19 [15] Walton 5-AAAAAA 2-0 76.51 61.01 72
20 [2] Blessed Trinity 4-Div B-AAA 1-0 76.38 66.70 51
21 [16] Alpharetta 6-AAAAAA 1-0 76.22 74.41 25
22 [1] Benedictine 2-AA 1-0 76.04 70.12 38
23 [17] Lovejoy 2-AAAAAA 1-0 75.27 57.65 93
24 [3] Ware County 3-AAAAA 2-0 75.20 27.62 296
25 [18] Roswell 5-AAAAAA 2-0 75.03 58.63 86
26 [2] Marist 6-AAAA 0-1 74.86 - 396
27 [19] Hillgrove 4-AAAAAA 1-1 74.33 69.08 40
28 [20] Lee County 1-AAAAAA 2-0 74.10 44.60 174
29 [21] Tift County 1-AAAAAA 2-0 74.04 40.11 208
30 [22] North Cobb 4-AAAAAA 0-2 73.34 80.85 10
31 [4] Coffee 3-AAAAA 2-0 73.23 30.47 271
32 [23] Lowndes 1-AAAAAA 1-1 72.75 77.39 17
33 [2] Greater Atlanta Christian 6-AA 1-1 72.47 67.92 47
34 [5] Mays 6-Div B-AAAAA 2-0 72.15 38.39 223
35 [24] Milton 5-AAAAAA 0-1 72.05 73.86 28
36 [25] Central Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 1-0 71.28 65.29 56
37 [3] Cartersville 7-AAAA 1-0 71.23 43.85 185
38 [6] Stockbridge 4-Div B-AAAAA 2-0 71.11 57.39 96
39 [3] Washington County 3-AAA 0-1 70.64 68.18 46
40 [7] East Paulding 5-AAAAA 2-0 70.00 64.85 59
41 [8] Gainesville 8-AAAAA 0-1 69.45 85.95 5
42 [9] Kell 7-Div B-AAAAA 1-1 69.22 65.04 57
43 [4] St. Pius X 6-AAAA 0-1 69.06 78.74 12
44 [10] Allatoona 5-AAAAA 1-1 68.96 58.96 83
45 [5] Griffin 4-Div B-AAAA 1-0 68.84 28.36 293
46 [6] Woodward Academy 5-AAAA 1-0 68.70 44.02 181
47 [7] Sandy Creek 5-AAAA 1-1 68.48 53.96 111
48 [26] Westlake 3-AAAAAA 1-0 68.06 35.96 243
49 [11] Glynn Academy 3-AAAAA 2-0 67.99 57.40 95
50 [12] Stephenson 6-Div A-AAAAA 1-1 67.82 45.01 170
51 [27] Collins Hill 7-AAAAAA 0-2 67.65 77.06 18
52 [13] Warner Robins 2-AAAAA 1-0 67.32 58.87 85
53 [28] Hughes 3-AAAAAA 0-2 67.10 76.87 19
54 [4] Westminster (Atlanta) 4-Div B-AAA 1-0 66.94 57.95 91
55 [5] Jefferson 8-AAA 2-0 66.62 42.45 199
56 [29] Harrison 4-AAAAAA 2-0 66.24 50.79 126
57 [30] Newton 2-AAAAAA 2-0 66.24 28.53 291
58 [14] South Paulding 5-AAAAA 1-0 66.13 54.84 107
59 [31] Brookwood 8-AAAAAA 0-2 66.11 83.14 8
60 [8] Thomson 3-AAAA 2-0 65.82 57.98 90
61 [32] Parkview 8-AAAAAA 2-0 65.63 47.40 146
62 [15] Houston County 2-AAAAA 1-0 65.00 45.45 164
63 [33] East Coweta 3-AAAAAA 1-0 64.14 45.01 169
64 [16] Dalton 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-1 63.66 83.64 7
65 [3] Fitzgerald 1-AA 2-0 63.43 43.87 184
66 [9] West Laurens 2-AAAA 2-0 63.10 51.15 124
67 [17] Carver (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 2-0 62.71 40.38 206
68 [34] Newnan 3-AAAAAA 1-0 62.65 51.88 120
69 [6] Cedar Grove 4-Div A-AAA 1-1 62.64 48.96 138
70 [35] South Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 0-1 62.04 74.15 27
71 [18] Alexander 5-AAAAA 1-0 61.75 47.23 149
72 [36] Cherokee 5-AAAAAA 2-0 61.29 40.61 204
73 [37] North Paulding 4-AAAAAA 0-2 60.74 77.50 16
74 [7] Hart County 8-AAA 1-0 60.72 50.68 128
75 [19] Starr's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 1-0 60.25 59.19 82
76 [20] Mundy's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-1 60.01 77.63 14
77 [38] Marietta 4-AAAAAA 0-2 59.97 78.94 11
78 [39] Shiloh 8-AAAAAA 0-1 59.95 76.69 20
79 [1] Eagle's Landing Christian 5-A 1-1 59.75 73.47 30
80 [10] Jonesboro 4-Div B-AAAA 2-0 59.58 50.56 129
81 [11] Cairo 1-Div A-AAAA 0-0 59.46 - 392
82 [8] Elbert County 8-AAA 1-0 59.41 36.16 237
83 [12] Burke County 3-AAAA 2-0 59.35 44.48 178
84 [21] Jones County 2-AAAAA 1-0 59.26 35.92 244
85 [13] Mary Persons 2-AAAA 1-0 59.21 39.74 213
86 [22] M. L. King 6-Div A-AAAAA 1-0 58.90 50.02 133
87 [23] Lanier 8-AAAAA 1-0 58.85 50.78 127
88 [14] Thomas County Central 1-Div A-AAAA 0-1 58.34 75.95 23
89 [24] LaGrange 1-AAAAA 2-0 58.29 48.64 142
90 [40] West Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 0-1 58.02 86.46 4
91 [41] Woodstock 5-AAAAAA 2-0 57.96 34.60 252
92 [25] New Manchester 5-AAAAA 1-0 57.90 51.94 119
93 [9] Central (Carrollton) 5-AAA 1-0 57.57 44.04 180
94 [15] Wayne County 3-AAAA 1-1 57.22 55.38 102
95 [16] Whitewater 5-AAAA 0-1 56.83 57.89 92
96 [26] Northgate 4-Div A-AAAAA 1-0 56.64 45.11 168
97 [42] Wheeler 5-AAAAAA 1-1 56.59 52.82 114
98 [10] Peach County 2-AAA 0-1 56.51 64.97 58
99 [4] Vidalia 2-AA 1-1 56.30 49.47 137
100 [2] Mount Paran Christian 6-Div A-A 2-0 56.08 20.88 330
101 [11] Westside (Macon) 2-AAA 1-0 55.84 28.51 292
102 [43] South Cobb 3-AAAAAA 1-1 55.81 58.58 87
103 [5] Lovett 6-AA 0-2 55.59 60.25 77
104 [27] Carver (Atlanta) 6-Div B-AAAAA 1-1 55.34 47.32 147
105 [28] Drew 4-Div A-AAAAA 1-0 55.30 39.09 218
106 [17] North Oconee 8-AAAA 0-2 55.08 71.67 37
107 [44] South Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 1-0 55.00 42.69 198
108 [29] Harris County 1-AAAAA 0-1 54.96 - 394
109 [30] Hiram 5-AAAAA 1-0 54.83 35.21 247
110 [18] Carrollton 5-AAAA 0-2 54.23 67.11 50
111 [12] Cook 1-Div A-AAA 0-1 54.22 76.40 22
112 [31] Rome 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-0 54.12 50.28 131
113 [19] Bainbridge 1-Div B-AAAA 1-0 54.11 39.02 220
114 [32] Lakeside (Evans) 2-AAAAA 0-1 53.71 - 395
115 [6] Pace Academy 6-AA 2-0 53.56 44.57 177
116 [45] Lambert 6-AAAAAA 0-1 53.13 61.21 70
117 [33] Sequoyah 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-1 53.11 74.30 26
118 [34] Clarke Central 8-AAAAA 0-1 53.04 63.07 62
119 [35] Brunswick 3-AAAAA 1-1 52.87 43.35 190
120 [36] Flowery Branch 8-AAAAA 1-0 52.68 29.04 289
121 [37] Sprayberry 7-Div B-AAAAA 1-1 52.49 54.32 109
122 [3] Marion County 4-A 1-0 52.47 10.97 363
123 [20] Grady 6-AAAA 1-0 52.35 39.00 221
124 [38] Evans 2-AAAAA 1-0 52.32 37.04 232
125 [21] Stephens County 8-AAAA 1-0 51.91 21.40 326
126 [39] Tri-Cities 6-Div B-AAAAA 1-0 51.67 20.04 333
127 [40] Southwest DeKalb 6-Div A-AAAAA 1-1 51.31 55.15 103
128 [13] Pierce County 1-Div A-AAA 1-0 51.23 34.30 256
129 [4] Prince Avenue Christian 8-A 1-0 50.96 45.84 159
130 [14] Dodge County 1-Div A-AAA 2-0 50.89 37.57 230
131 [7] Thomasville 1-AA 0-1 50.72 65.46 55
132 [41] Creekview 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-1 50.70 68.48 44
133 [8] Brooks County 1-AA 0-2 50.54 62.06 64
134 [15] Callaway 5-AAA 1-1 50.46 46.97 153
135 [22] Northwest Whitfield 7-AAAA 1-0 50.21 44.60 176
136 [42] Salem 8-AAAAA 1-0 50.09 42.83 197
137 [46] Northview 6-AAAAAA 1-0 50.02 41.76 200
138 [23] Eagle's Landing 4-Div A-AAAA 1-0 49.78 39.90 211
139 [5] Calvary Day 3-Div A-A 1-0 49.75 10.58 365
140 [24] Westover 1-Div B-AAAA 0-1 49.62 71.74 36
141 [47] Douglas County 3-AAAAAA 0-2 49.59 59.82 79
142 [25] Baldwin 2-AAAA 1-0 49.52 23.67 315
143 [43] Dutchtown 4-Div B-AAAAA 1-1 49.33 52.05 118
144 [26] Pickens 7-AAAA 1-0 49.17 43.40 188
145 [6] Clinch County 2-A 2-0 48.91 30.77 268
146 [44] Effingham County 3-AAAAA 2-0 48.87 38.69 222
147 [45] Cambridge 7-Div B-AAAAA 2-0 48.86 29.78 284
148 [46] Miller Grove 6-Div A-AAAAA 2-0 48.75 30.34 275
149 [47] Villa Rica 5-AAAAA 0-2 47.92 61.54 67
150 [27] Veterans 2-AAAA 0-1 47.81 67.36 49
151 [48] Riverwood 7-Div B-AAAAA 2-0 47.75 27.26 299
152 [28] Columbia 6-AAAA 0-2 47.66 55.11 104
153 [29] Eastside 4-Div A-AAAA 1-0 47.64 26.24 303
154 [30] Monroe 1-Div A-AAAA 2-0 47.61 24.57 311
155 [9] Dublin 3-AA 2-0 47.57 38.05 226
156 [16] Adairsville 6-AAA 2-0 47.50 29.13 288
157 [17] Appling County 1-Div A-AAA 0-1 47.49 59.58 80
158 [31] Arabia Mountain 6-AAAA 0-2 47.37 68.34 45
159 [7] Landmark Christian 5-A 2-0 47.30 31.73 264
160 [48] Kennesaw Mountain 4-AAAAAA 0-1 47.22 54.84 106
161 [10] Lamar County 4-AA 1-1 47.07 37.62 229
162 [49] South Effingham 3-AAAAA 1-0 46.87 36.00 241
163 [32] Troup 5-AAAA 0-1 46.83 55.93 100
164 [8] Charlton County 2-A 1-0 46.59 25.52 308
165 [9] Irwin County 2-A 1-0-1 46.58 35.98 242
166 [11] Macon County 4-AA 1-0 46.48 30.39 273
167 [50] Paulding County 5-AAAAA 1-0 46.33 31.33 265
168 [33] Gilmer 7-AAAA 1-0 46.29 26.49 302
169 [34] Worth County 1-Div B-AAAA 0-1 46.18 65.79 53
170 [51] Statesboro 3-AAAAA 0-1 45.99 59.35 81
171 [52] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4-Div B-AAAAA 2-0 45.88 22.06 320
172 [35] White County 8-AAAA 0-1 45.75 51.53 121
173 [53] Loganville 8-AAAAA 1-0 45.51 34.49 253
174 [36] Locust Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 1-0 45.45 36.07 239
175 [10] Dooly County 4-A 1-0 45.43 30.00 281
176 [18] Laney 3-AAA 0-1 45.39 45.21 167
177 [49] Berkmar 8-AAAAAA 0-2 45.36 81.38 9
178 [11] Lincoln County 7-Div B-A 2-0 45.34 40.05 210
179 [12] Jefferson County 3-AA 0-2 45.33 62.59 63
180 [50] Rockdale County 2-AAAAAA 1-1 45.19 45.79 160
181 [51] Mountain View 7-AAAAAA 0-2 45.04 60.31 76
182 [52] Pope 5-AAAAAA 0-2 44.99 61.03 71
183 [37] Upson-Lee 2-AAAA 0-0 44.88 - 403
184 [38] Howard 2-AAAA 2-0 44.60 37.69 228
185 [19] West Hall 7-AAA 1-0 44.53 21.63 324
186 [53] Centennial 6-AAAAAA 0-1 44.52 72.67 32
187 [13] Darlington 7-AA 2-0 44.22 27.55 297
188 [14] Bowdon 5-AA 0-1 44.04 57.57 94
189 [15] Wesleyan 6-AA 2-0 44.00 23.22 318
190 [16] Heard County 5-AA 0-1 43.92 63.43 61
191 [54] Richmond Hill 3-AAAAA 0-0 43.70 - 398
192 [55] Luella 4-Div B-AAAAA 1-1 43.50 41.04 202
193 [12] Aquinas 7-Div B-A 1-1 43.49 30.33 276
194 [17] Bleckley County 4-AA 1-1 43.42 45.53 163
195 [13] Mount Pisgah Christian 6-Div B-A 1-0 43.38 30.36 274
196 [39] North Hall 8-AAAA 0-0 42.84 - 397
197 [18] Rabun County 8-AA 1-1 42.79 44.19 179
198 [56] Shaw 1-AAAAA 1-1 42.76 47.71 144
199 [54] Chattahoochee 6-AAAAAA 0-1 42.66 63.64 60
200 [57] Union Grove 4-Div B-AAAAA 0-1 42.26 52.13 116
201 [20] Ringgold 6-AAA 1-1 42.24 39.03 219
202 [58] Winder-Barrow 8-AAAAA 0-1 42.10 68.98 41
203 [21] Jackson 2-AAA 0-1 42.09 61.56 66
204 [59] Forsyth Central 7-Div B-AAAAA 1-0 41.94 29.31 286
205 [22] Decatur 4-Div B-AAA 0-1 41.66 66.34 52
206 [14] Tattnall Square 7-Div A-A 1-0 41.53 14.31 356
207 [60] Cass 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-1 41.50 68.87 42
208 [61] Heritage (Conyers) 8-AAAAA 0-1 41.49 47.54 145
209 [19] Early County 1-AA 0-1-1 41.38 50.34 130
210 [40] Liberty County 3-AAAA 1-1 41.05 37.03 233
211 [15] Hawkinsville 4-A 0-1 40.16 45.78 161
212 [16] Savannah Christian 3-Div A-A 1-1 39.91 33.25 260
213 [41] Lithonia 6-AAAA 1-0 39.75 -5.96 412
214 [42] Crisp County 1-Div A-AAAA 0-1 39.59 76.46 21
215 [55] Duluth 7-AAAAAA 0-2 39.40 53.30 113
216 [62] McIntosh 4-Div A-AAAAA 1-1 39.33 40.12 207
217 [20] Metter 3-AA 2-0 38.99 30.40 272
218 [56] Campbell 3-AAAAAA 2-0 38.61 10.19 367
219 [57] North Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 0-1 38.56 58.93 84
220 [17] Commerce 8-A 1-0 38.38 19.46 336
221 [23] Jenkins 1-Div B-AAA 1-1 38.36 43.39 189
222 [24] Morgan County 8-AAA 0-1 38.27 61.61 65
223 [21] Seminole County 1-AA 0-0 38.16 - 401
224 [18] Stratford Academy 7-Div A-A 1-0 38.10 23.43 317
225 [43] Spalding 4-Div B-AAAA 1-0 37.72 15.76 350
226 [22] Washington-Wilkes 8-AA 0-1 37.69 42.98 196
227 [25] Cedartown 5-AAA 0-1 37.56 57.19 97
228 [44] Chamblee 6-AAAA 1-0 37.45 32.42 262
229 [23] Bacon County 2-AA 1-0 37.39 1.06 388
230 [26] Oconee County 8-AAA 1-0 37.21 2.71 385
231 [19] Pacelli 4-A 1-0 37.17 23.60 316
232 [58] Johns Creek 6-AAAAAA 0-1 36.93 55.61 101
233 [24] Model 7-AA 2-0 36.82 28.26 294
234 [63] Grovetown 2-AAAAA 1-0 36.74 9.83 369
235 [45] Fayette County 5-AAAA 0-2 36.74 47.32 148
236 [27] Washington 4-Div B-AAA 0-2 36.64 53.84 112
237 [28] Maynard Jackson 4-Div A-AAA 1-0 36.57 19.97 334
238 [29] Jackson County 8-AAA 1-0 36.39 23.87 313
239 [64] Northside (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 1-0 36.37 21.93 321
240 [25] Swainsboro 3-AA 1-1 35.84 45.26 165
241 [26] B.E.S.T. Academy 6-AA 0-1 35.65 52.82 115
242 [46] Perry 2-AAAA 0-1 35.21 45.26 166
243 [27] Screven County 3-AA 1-0 35.08 - 400
244 [30] Westside (Augusta) 3-AAA 1-1 34.68 43.08 193
245 [20] Emanuel County Institute 3-Div B-A 0-1 34.23 38.20 224
246 [47] Riverdale 4-Div B-AAAA 1-0 34.06 25.71 306
247 [65] Richmond Academy 2-AAAAA 0-1 33.83 32.33 263
248 [66] Cedar Shoals 8-AAAAA 0-1 33.80 57.05 98
249 [67] Ola 4-Div B-AAAAA 0-1 33.71 43.09 192
250 [68] Banneker 6-Div B-AAAAA 0-1 33.60 65.70 54
251 [21] Our Lady of Mercy 5-A 0-1 33.55 51.21 123
252 [48] Redan 6-AAAA 2-0 32.91 21.05 328
253 [49] Americus-Sumter 1-Div B-AAAA 0-2 32.74 48.84 141
254 [59] Pebblebrook 3-AAAAAA 0-1 32.72 46.40 156
255 [22] Brookstone 4-A 0-1 32.72 45.74 162
256 [23] Pinecrest Academy 6-Div B-A 1-0 32.64 19.52 335
257 [69] River Ridge 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-1 32.26 60.32 75
258 [31] Rockmart 5-AAA 1-0 32.16 21.51 325
259 [50] Monroe Area 8-AAAA 0-1 32.13 43.15 191
260 [32] Central (Macon) 2-AAA 1-0 32.13 18.78 339
261 [33] Southeast Bulloch 1-Div B-AAA 0-1 31.94 48.87 140
262 [34] Brantley County 1-Div A-AAA 1-1 31.72 29.55 285
263 [24] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6-Div A-A 1-1 31.61 0.12 389
264 [51] Chestatee 8-AAAA 0-1 31.39 55.04 105
265 [70] Chapel Hill 5-AAAAA 0-1 30.99 51.22 122
266 [35] Rutland 2-AAA 0-1 30.87 58.20 89
267 [25] Johnson County 3-Div B-A 0-1 30.72 49.92 135
268 [52] Henry County 4-Div A-AAAA 0-2 30.71 73.80 29
269 [28] Coosa 7-AA 0-1 30.68 50.11 132
270 [26] First Presbyterian 7-Div A-A 0-1 30.67 44.60 175
271 [29] Berrien 1-AA 0-1 30.58 48.93 139
272 [71] Woodland (Cartersville) 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-1 30.52 49.86 136
273 [72] Dunwoody 6-Div A-AAAAA 1-0 30.07 -1.25 408
274 [73] Druid Hills 6-Div A-AAAAA 0-1 30.07 35.10 248
275 [74] Lithia Springs 5-AAAAA 0-1 30.07 44.94 172
276 [30] Bremen 5-AA 0-1 29.91 46.58 155
277 [53] Walnut Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 1-0 29.88 24.07 312
278 [27] Athens Academy 8-A 2-0 29.77 4.56 381
279 [28] Trion 6-Div A-A 2-0 29.61 8.41 372
280 [31] Chattooga 7-AA 1-0 29.53 30.10 280
281 [36] Pepperell 5-AAA 0-1 28.98 43.97 182
282 [32] Pelham 1-AA 1-0 28.89 -13.73 415
283 [29] Christian Heritage 6-Div A-A 0-1 28.69 44.94 171
284 [33] Union County 8-AA 1-0 28.67 -5.73 411
285 [37] East Hall 7-AAA 0-1 28.65 41.64 201
286 [60] Alcovy 2-AAAAAA 0-1 28.60 49.99 134
287 [34] Holy Innocents 6-AA 0-2 28.56 48.31 143
288 [38] Sonoraville 6-AAA 0-1 28.43 39.18 216
289 [35] Bryan County 2-AA 0-1 28.40 36.63 234
290 [39] Tattnall County 1-Div A-AAA 1-0 28.22 14.95 354
291 [30] Turner County 2-A 1-0 28.15 16.28 349
292 [40] Lumpkin County 7-AAA 0-1 28.09 34.46 255
293 [41] North Clayton 4-Div A-AAA 0-1 28.07 36.41 236
294 [42] Towers 4-Div A-AAA 0-1 27.97 51.11 125
295 [54] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4-Div B-AAAA 1-1 27.93 38.11 225
296 [55] Heritage (Ringgold) 7-AAAA 0-1 27.86 39.89 212
297 [31] Mitchell County 1-A 1-0 27.85 15.67 351
298 [56] Ridgeland 7-AAAA 0-2 27.75 36.16 238
299 [32] Claxton 3-Div A-A 0-1 27.68 36.63 235
300 [33] Wilcox County 2-A 0-1 27.64 43.07 194
301 [34] Greenville 4-A 1-0 27.63 11.47 362
302 [43] Dawson County 7-AAA 0-1 26.95 39.58 214
303 [75] Apalachee 8-AAAAA 0-1 26.95 43.52 186
304 [44] Toombs County 1-Div A-AAA 1-0 26.88 17.65 343
305 [36] Hapeville 6-AA 1-0 26.18 18.83 338
306 [57] Pike County 4-Div B-AAAA 0-1 25.93 44.72 173
307 [37] Manchester 5-AA 0-1 25.52 46.59 154
308 [61] Lakeside (Atlanta) 2-AAAAAA 1-1 25.28 27.16 300
309 [76] Bradwell Institute 3-AAAAA 0-1 25.19 43.41 187
310 [77] Greenbrier 2-AAAAA 1-0 24.94 5.12 380
311 [38] Dade County 7-AA 1-0 24.88 - 393
312 [35] Telfair County 2-A 1-0 24.77 3.34 383
313 [36] Schley County 4-A 0-0 24.46 - 399
314 [45] Kendrick 2-AAA 1-1 24.28 10.47 366
315 [37] Athens Christian 8-A 1-1 24.17 15.37 352
316 [46] Fannin County 7-AAA 0-1 24.13 43.93 183
317 [58] Johnson (Gainesville) 8-AAAA† 1-1 23.99 33.02 261
318 [47] Franklin County 7-AAA 0-1 23.75 54.27 110
319 [48] Southwest 2-AAA 1-0 23.61 21.14 327
320 [39] Northeast 4-AA 0-1 23.49 25.97 305
321 [40] McIntosh County Academy 2-AA 0-2 23.42 46.39 157
322 [38] Fellowship Christian 6-Div B-A 2-0 23.41 4.44 382
323 [41] Greene County 8-AA 1-0 23.38 17.28 344
324 [39] Whitefield Academy 6-Div B-A 0-1 23.23 58.44 88
325 [78] Columbus 1-AAAAA 1-0 23.23 11.58 361
326 [40] St. Francis 6-Div B-A 1-0 22.79 -23.04 417
327 [59] Dougherty 1-Div B-AAAA 1-0 22.78 8.63 371
328 [79] Cross Creek 2-AAAAA 1-0 22.70 9.49 370
329 [80] Hardaway 1-AAAAA 1-1 22.39 33.34 259
330 [42] Jeff Davis 2-AA 1-0 22.20 15.28 353
331 [62] Habersham Central 6-AAAAAA 0-1 21.75 40.43 205
332 [43] Monticello 4-AA 0-1 21.71 27.52 298
333 [60] Madison County 8-AAAA 0-2 21.52 30.19 279
334 [63] Osborne 4-AAAAAA† 0-2 21.41 37.31 231
335 [81] Morrow 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-1 21.35 30.29 277
336 [41] Hancock Central 7-Div B-A 0-1 21.31 47.16 150
337 [42] Mount de Sales 7-Div A-A 0-1 21.24 34.82 251
338 [43] Wilkinson County 7-Div A-A 0-1 21.14 34.48 254
339 [44] Savannah Country Day 3-Div A-A 0-1 21.07 35.74 246
340 [49] Spencer 2-AAA 0-1 20.70 60.36 74
341 [50] Johnson (Savannah) 1-Div B-AAA 0-1 20.01 29.24 287
342 [82] North Atlanta 7-Div B-AAAAA 1-0 19.46 2.21 386
343 [51] North Murray 6-AAA 0-1 19.15 29.80 283
344 [44] East Laurens 3-AA 1-0 19.07 18.95 337
345 [83] Forest Park 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-1 18.12 40.07 209
346 [61] Albany 1-Div A-AAAA 0-1 18.03 30.21 278
347 [62] LaFayette 7-AAAA 1-0 17.95 -6.25 413
348 [45] Treutlen 3-Div B-A 1-0 17.90 18.04 342
349 [46] Walker 6-Div A-A 0-1 17.80 46.35 158
350 [47] King's Ridge Christian 6-Div B-A 0-0 17.77 - 390
351 [52] Therrell 4-Div B-AAA 0-1 17.61 34.22 257
352 [45] Long County 2-AA 0-1 17.30 30.57 269
353 [46] Gordon Lee 7-AA 1-1 17.19 16.55 347
354 [84] North Springs 7-Div B-AAAAA 0-2 17.16 39.26 215
355 [53] Banks County 7-AAA 0-1 17.10 36.02 240
356 [54] Douglass 4-Div B-AAA 1-0 17.02 5.17 379
357 [55] McNair 4-Div A-AAA 0-1 16.83 30.55 270
358 [48] Taylor County 4-A 0-1 16.59 16.71 346
359 [49] George Walton Academy 8-A 0-1 16.47 23.83 314
360 [56] Beach 1-Div B-AAA 2-0 16.22 -0.64 406
361 [63] Southeast Whitfield 7-AAAA 1-1 16.17 1.84 387
362 [50] Jenkins County 3-Div A-A 1-1 15.68 10.08 368
363 [47] Chattahoochee County 5-AA 0-1 15.01 24.75 310
364 [48] Putnam County 4-AA 1-1 14.93 13.18 360
365 [51] Randolph-Clay 1-A 2-0 14.69 5.78 378
366 [57] Glenn Hills 3-AAA 0-2 14.41 60.17 78
367 [58] Jordan 2-AAA 0-1 13.94 25.59 307
368 [52] Terrell County 1-A 0-2 13.92 37.88 227
369 [59] Haralson County 5-AAA 0-1 13.83 29.99 282
370 [60] Murray County 6-AAA 1-0 13.67 18.52 341
371 [53] Miller County 1-A 0-1 13.33 54.82 108
372 [61] Butler 3-AAA 0-0 12.94 - 391
373 [64] New Hampstead 3-AAAA† 1-1 12.94 52.11 117
374 [54] Atkinson County 2-A 0-2 12.93 26.96 301
375 [65] Stone Mountain 6-AAAA 0-1 12.85 40.97 203
376 [55] Georgia Military College 7-Div B-A 0-1 11.95 39.17 217
377 [62] Josey 3-AAA 1-0 11.91 8.26 373
378 [63] Hephzibah 3-AAA 0-1 11.85 25.05 309
379 [64] Meadowcreek 7-AAAAAA 0-1 11.69 68.59 43
380 [56] Calhoun County 1-A 0-2 10.99 35.85 245
381 [57] Hebron Christian Academy 8-A 2-0 10.79 -0.94 407
382 [58] Portal 3-Div A-A 0-1 10.61 14.27 357
383 [49] Riverside Military Academy 8-AA 0-1 9.26 21.05 329
384 [50] Groves 2-AA 0-1 9.21 7.22 375
385 [64] Savannah 1-Div B-AAA 0-2 8.21 47.07 151
386 [65] East Jackson 8-AAA 1-1 8.17 8.06 374
387 [66] South Atlanta 4-Div A-AAA 0-2 7.53 27.81 295
388 [51] Harlem 3-AA 0-2 7.47 30.84 267
389 [59] Central (Talbotton) 4-A 2-0 5.07 -5.53 410
390 [67] Islands 1-Div B-AAA 1-0 4.86 6.85 376
391 [66] Hampton 4-Div A-AAAA 0-1 4.70 77.56 15
392 [52] K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6-AA 0-1 4.56 21.82 323
393 [68] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6-AAA 0-1 3.48 14.84 355
394 [60] Lanier County 2-A 0-2 3.42 26.04 304
395 [61] Warren County 7-Div B-A 1-1 2.99 -0.05 404
396 [53] Temple 5-AA 0-1 2.48 33.97 258
397 [62] Montgomery County 3-Div B-A 0-1 2.26 13.33 359
398 [63] Twiggs County 7-Div A-A 0-0 2.04 - 402
399 [64] Wheeler County 3-Div B-A 0-1 0.98 22.41 319
400 [65] Strong Rock Christian 5-A 0-2 0.98 10.68 364
401 [66] Lakeview Academy 8-A 0-1 0.60 5.81 377
402 [54] Oglethorpe County 8-AA 0-1 0.35 34.85 250
403 [55] Crawford County 4-AA† 1-1 0.32 -0.13 405
404 [56] Armuchee 7-AA 0-2 -0.38 28.87 290
405 [57] Social Circle 8-AA 1-0 -2.81 -1.38 409
406 [67] Towns County 8-A 0-1 -3.37 31.03 266
407 [85] Clarkston 6-Div A-AAAAA† 0-2 -3.61 34.91 249
408 [69] Gordon Central 6-AAA 0-1 -3.89 20.31 332
409 [67] Windsor Forest 3-AAAA 0-1 -4.78 18.58 340
410 [68] North Cobb Christian 6-Div A-A† 1-0 -6.57 -22.75 416
411 [70] Coahulla Creek 6-AAA 0-1 -9.98 13.81 358
412 [69] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5-A 0-2 -10.04 3.20 384
413 [70] Baconton 1-A 0-2 -11.37 16.98 345
414 [71] Glascock County 7-Div B-A† 0-2 -15.04 16.38 348
415 [72] Stewart County 1-A† 0-1 -20.15 21.93 322
416 [68] Cross Keys 6-AAAA† 0-1 -25.10 -8.93 414
417 [73] Providence Christian 8-A 0-1 -25.39 20.43 331
†-Plays non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 - AAAAAA 96.08 78.74
2 8 - AAAAAA 88.53 69.88
3 7 - AAAAAA 88.18 66.60
4 5 - AAAAAA 83.76 67.14
5 4 - AAAAAA 83.07 67.13
6 2 - AAAAAA 78.32 54.07
7 3 - AAAAA 73.26 53.14
8 3 - AAAAAA 72.80 55.69
9 5 - AAAA 72.70 55.54
10 5 - AAAAA 72.22 54.37
11 2 - AAAAA 71.91 50.04
12 6 - AAAAA 70.99 52.63
6 - Div B - AAAAA 78.04 58.42
6 - Div A - AAAAA 64.40 48.13
13 3 - AAAA 66.14 50.19
14 6 - AAAAAA 65.98 47.46
15 8 - AAA 65.90 45.07
16 6 - AAAA 65.23 45.87
17 2 - AAAA 65.21 49.09
18 4 - AAAAA 65.12 46.53
4 - Div A - AAAAA 65.33 46.42
4 - Div B - AAAAA 64.85 46.62
19 8 - AAAAA 64.77 47.35
20 8 - AAAA 64.53 44.00
21 7 - AAAAA 63.58 45.19
7 - Div A - AAAAA 63.93 46.74
7 - Div B - AAAAA 63.18 43.38
22 1 - AAAAA 63.04 43.32
23 6 - AA 62.68 40.38
24 1 - AAAA 61.44 43.77
1 - Div A - AAAA 64.05 46.12
1 - Div B - AAAA 58.60 41.65
25 4 - AAA 61.08 33.73
4 - Div B - AAA 69.62 40.77
4 - Div A - AAA 50.64 28.33
26 1 - AA 60.82 43.08
27 7 - AAAA 59.84 37.47
28 4 - AAAA 58.61 38.39
4 - Div B - AAAA 63.58 40.51
4 - Div A - AAAA 54.22 36.43
29 2 - AA 57.34 30.37
30 5 - AAA 56.03 36.76
31 5 - A 55.80 29.13
32 2 - AAA 52.80 32.30
33 3 - AAA 52.64 25.11
34 1 - AAA 51.90 31.74
1 - Div A - AAA 58.90 41.82
1 - Div B - AAA 37.86 19.57
35 6 - AAA 51.52 21.45
36 3 - AA 51.10 33.97
37 2 - A 50.09 30.27
38 4 - A 50.03 31.81
39 4 - AA 49.30 33.01
40 5 - AA 46.46 27.37
41 6 - A 45.12 28.88
6 - Div A - A 47.51 31.60
6 - Div B - A 43.09 26.79
42 7 - AA 44.39 27.08
43 7 - A 43.84 25.76
7 - Div A - A 44.05 26.52
7 - Div B - A 43.57 24.59
44 7 - AAA 43.10 27.25
45 3 - A 42.15 22.58
3 - Div A - A 46.46 26.72
3 - Div B - A 36.45 17.27
46 8 - AA 41.05 20.19
47 8 - A 40.16 16.55
48 1 - A 26.58 12.34

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
08/28 Sandy Creek Jonesboro 15 - 17 11.25 75.5% 0.333
08/28 Southeast Whitfield Murray County 21 - 35 4.86 61.9% 0.409
08/28 Washington County Thomson 42 - 49 2.46 56.1% 0.462
08/28 Groves Islands 0 - 8 1.99 55.0% 0.469
08/28 Richmond Academy Westside (Augusta) 20 - 27 1.50 53.7% 0.477
08/28 Strong Rock Christian Social Circle 23 - 31 1.43 53.6% 0.478
08/28 Ridgeland Chattooga 13 - 21 0.57 51.4% 0.491
08/21 Irwin County Early County 7 - 7 2.84 57.1% 0.495
08/21 Laney Dublin 0 - 3 0.18 50.4% 0.498
08/28 Jenkins County Treutlen 19 - 25 0.14 50.4% 0.498
08/21 Lamar County Howard 19 - 28 0.11 50.3% 0.498
08/28 East Laurens Taylor County 35 - 34 0.12 50.3% 0.501
08/21 Pace Academy Lovett 24 - 0 0.33 50.8% 0.507
08/20 Jenkins Savannah Christian 15 - 14 0.80 52.0% 0.508
08/28 Clinch County Brooks County 33 - 20 0.73 51.8% 0.512

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
92.55 09/04 Buford McEachern - 4.56 61.2%
87.57 09/11 Grayson Archer - 3.29 58.2%
86.96 08/22 Colquitt County North Gwinnett 45 - 14 16.64 84.1%
84.98 10/30 Archer Dacula - 2.18 55.4%
84.45 10/02 Norcross North Gwinnett - 2.26 55.6%
84.22 10/30 Mill Creek Norcross - 1.93 54.8%
84.16 09/25 North Gwinnett Mill Creek - 2.88 57.2%
84.08 10/23 Grayson Dacula - 7.83 68.6%
83.44 09/04 Dacula Mill Creek - 1.09 52.7%
80.99 11/06 Colquitt County Camden County - 20.94 89.0%
80.93 08/22 McEachern Tucker 50 - 14 11.33 75.6%
80.68 09/11 McEachern Peachtree Ridge - 10.38 73.9%
80.46 08/22 Norcross Valdosta 34 - 31 6.22 65.1%
78.45 10/16 Colquitt County Valdosta - 25.32 92.6%
78.31 08/29 Archer Peachtree Ridge 26 - 10 12.86 78.3%

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