Sports
Maxwell Ratings project girls tournament: Everybody has a chance
The Maxwell Ratings were used to simulate this year’s state basketball tournament 1 million times. These are the results of those computer simulations for the girls brackets in classes AA through AAAAAA, which begin Friday.
Simulations for Class A, which begins Monday, will be published next week.
Below, each of 160 girls teams is shown with their power ratings, their ranking among all teams in their classification, strength of draw in the tournament, average depth advanced to and number of times winning the state championship out of the 1 million simulations.
The data is compiled from scores reported to MaxPreps and Georgia Prep Country as of 3 p.m. Thursday. Although attempts are made to reconcile differences in the data, there are inevitably some missing, duplicated and incorrect results. Readers are encouraged to verify and submit corrections to those websites to improve the accuracy.
Please feel free to post any questions that you have. Loren Maxwell, creator of the Maxwell Ratings, will be available to answer them.
A few observations --
Team most likely to win – Redan wins 683,738 out of 1 million simulations in Class AAAA. Next-closest contender in AAAA is Columbia, with 74,570 wins.
Team least likely to win – Newnan, which qualified with a 7-21 record, is a 76,778,821-to-1 shot in AAAAAA, according to Maxwell. They are one of 12 teams with odds of greater than 1 million to 1.
Hardest class to predict – Buford, St. Pius and Washington County are each better than a 5-to-1 chance to win AAA. Washington County is undefeated (24-0) and ranked No. 1, but Maxwell favors Buford, partly because of a better draw.
An underdog? Wesleyan? – Maxwell projects Kendrick (27-0) as the most likely winner in AA with 434,406 wins. That would mean an end to Wesleyan's streak of five state titles. Wesleyan wins 333,337 out of 1 million.
| CLASS AAAAAA | Rank | W | L | Rating | Draw | Wins | Depth | Odds |
| McEachern | 1 | 26 | 3 | 105.78 | 79.71 | 578,437 | 4.10 | 0.73 |
| Archer | 2 | 25 | 3 | 95.80 | 84.08 | 160,281 | 2.92 | 5.24 |
| Hillgrove | 4 | 22 | 3 | 90.51 | 78.86 | 85,946 | 2.90 | 10.64 |
| Parkview | 3 | 25 | 3 | 94.38 | 84.99 | 80,135 | 2.14 | 11.48 |
| Norcross | 5 | 22 | 6 | 87.59 | 83.93 | 25,304 | 2.01 | 38.52 |
| North Forsyth | 7 | 28 | 2 | 86.19 | 86.50 | 19,568 | 1.62 | 50.10 |
| Mountain View | 6 | 20 | 5 | 86.89 | 87.08 | 14,688 | 1.44 | 67.08 |
| Westlake | 8 | 22 | 4 | 83.57 | 83.28 | 14,420 | 1.89 | 68.35 |
| Douglas County | 9 | 21 | 4 | 82.11 | 85.55 | 6,110 | 1.40 | 162.66 |
| Mill Creek | 11 | 19 | 8 | 80.48 | 86.28 | 3,460 | 0.99 | 288.02 |
| South Forsyth | 10 | 25 | 6 | 80.63 | 88.43 | 2,662 | 1.10 | 374.64 |
| Marietta | 12 | 19 | 8 | 77.88 | 85.16 | 2,304 | 1.19 | 433.10 |
| Duluth | 13 | 17 | 11 | 77.85 | 84.51 | 2,281 | 1.31 | 437.43 |
| North Cobb | 15 | 20 | 10 | 77.53 | 87.99 | 1,016 | 0.75 | 983.51 |
| Hughes | 14 | 24 | 5 | 77.74 | 86.25 | 844 | 0.55 | 1,184.37 |
| Central Gwinnett | 17 | 18 | 8 | 76.48 | 88.45 | 652 | 0.40 | 1,532.51 |
| Newton | 20 | 23 | 5 | 75.87 | 88.32 | 640 | 0.72 | 1,561.10 |
| Brunswick | 19 | 24 | 3 | 76.00 | 86.62 | 510 | 0.54 | 1,958.72 |
| Centennial | 16 | 20 | 9 | 77.34 | 91.28 | 339 | 0.19 | 2,949.01 |
| West Forsyth | 22 | 18 | 10 | 72.69 | 88.70 | 131 | 0.12 | 7,661.77 |
| Lowndes | 29 | 18 | 8 | 67.25 | 81.99 | 101 | 1.01 | 9,924.98 |
| South Gwinnett | 23 | 15 | 11 | 71.47 | 90.67 | 62 | 0.31 | 16,050.57 |
| Colquitt County | 26 | 21 | 5 | 69.59 | 89.47 | 45 | 0.26 | 22,368.85 |
| Roswell | 27 | 20 | 8 | 68.86 | 87.94 | 43 | 0.30 | 23,443.33 |
| Luella | 34 | 15 | 11 | 64.14 | 88.54 | 11 | 0.27 | 88,072.12 |
| Woodstock | 32 | 18 | 12 | 65.23 | 91.41 | 4 | 0.13 | 253,760.62 |
| Tift County | 38 | 12 | 16 | 61.94 | 87.61 | 4 | 0.11 | 282,653.60 |
| Rockdale County | 37 | 13 | 9 | 62.18 | 88.43 | 1 | 0.01 | 738,180.77 |
| Alcovy | 46 | 10 | 18 | 57.53 | 89.47 | 1 | 0.04 | 1,233,158.61 |
| Lassiter | 42 | 13 | 16 | 58.23 | 88.72 | - | 0.11 | 2,203,767.01 |
| Walton | 47 | 9 | 18 | 57.22 | 90.00 | - | 0.04 | 7,383,699.47 |
| Newnan | 57 | 7 | 21 | 47.88 | 85.86 | - | 0.11 | 76,778,821.93 |
| CLASS AAAAA | Rank | W | L | Rating | Draw | Wins | Depth | Odds |
| Southwest Dekalb | 1 | 26 | 2 | 96.64 | 74.43 | 516,426 | 3.86 | 0.94 |
| Tucker | 2 | 23 | 4 | 91.44 | 79.15 | 204,895 | 2.74 | 3.88 |
| Drew | 3 | 23 | 3 | 82.82 | 71.94 | 101,001 | 2.87 | 8.90 |
| Forest Park | 8 | 23 | 8 | 79.43 | 75.89 | 39,539 | 2.07 | 24.29 |
| Stephenson | 4 | 17 | 8 | 81.37 | 79.81 | 28,961 | 1.36 | 33.53 |
| Osborne | 5 | 22 | 6 | 81.09 | 77.30 | 28,209 | 1.54 | 34.45 |
| Salem | 7 | 23 | 3 | 80.27 | 79.31 | 24,487 | 1.28 | 39.84 |
| Mays | 6 | 12 | 8 | 80.35 | 79.60 | 21,176 | 1.09 | 46.22 |
| Creekview | 9 | 23 | 6 | 75.98 | 75.88 | 10,642 | 1.44 | 92.96 |
| Effingham County | 10 | 26 | 2 | 73.29 | 74.12 | 10,249 | 1.81 | 96.57 |
| Starr's Mill | 13 | 19 | 7 | 70.98 | 77.95 | 3,383 | 1.06 | 294.57 |
| Greenbrier | 15 | 23 | 6 | 68.62 | 75.80 | 2,787 | 1.24 | 357.80 |
| Sequoyah | 11 | 25 | 7 | 71.66 | 78.91 | 2,114 | 0.75 | 472.05 |
| Northside (Columbus) | 16 | 21 | 5 | 68.37 | 77.04 | 1,829 | 1.08 | 545.65 |
| Clarke Central | 12 | 19 | 4 | 71.49 | 81.79 | 1,484 | 0.46 | 672.88 |
| Mt. Zion (Jonesboro) | 20 | 17 | 11 | 65.00 | 76.52 | 667 | 0.68 | 1,498.45 |
| Gainesville | 14 | 22 | 7 | 69.68 | 84.03 | 345 | 0.12 | 2,901.57 |
| Northside (W.Robins) | 19 | 19 | 7 | 65.29 | 80.20 | 338 | 0.28 | 2,954.12 |
| Grovetown | 22 | 21 | 8 | 64.33 | 79.69 | 335 | 0.54 | 2,983.79 |
| Hiram | 17 | 23 | 4 | 67.18 | 78.72 | 325 | 0.38 | 3,071.76 |
| Ware County | 28 | 21 | 7 | 60.54 | 74.49 | 252 | 1.08 | 3,965.67 |
| Richmond Hill | 31 | 18 | 10 | 59.59 | 74.20 | 154 | 0.80 | 6,508.50 |
| Evans | 26 | 17 | 8 | 61.34 | 76.23 | 152 | 0.17 | 6,595.41 |
| Loganville | 21 | 20 | 9 | 64.65 | 80.83 | 98 | 0.05 | 10,234.70 |
| Kell | 27 | 13 | 17 | 60.70 | 79.30 | 55 | 0.54 | 18,064.41 |
| Paulding County | 30 | 18 | 7 | 59.99 | 79.44 | 48 | 0.59 | 20,784.07 |
| Glynn Academy | 32 | 16 | 9 | 59.46 | 78.83 | 43 | 0.31 | 23,363.92 |
| Lee County | 46 | 14 | 12 | 50.37 | 75.58 | 3 | 0.34 | 301,333.21 |
| Hardaway | 47 | 10 | 20 | 50.16 | 77.44 | 2 | 0.27 | 409,004.43 |
| Bainbridge | 49 | 15 | 13 | 49.71 | 78.84 | 1 | 0.09 | 1,532,120.68 |
| Villa Rica | 48 | 12 | 16 | 50.04 | 82.08 | - | 0.09 | 3,130,494.95 |
| South Paulding | 45 | 16 | 11 | 50.73 | 83.37 | - | 0.04 | 4,954,001.11 |
| CLASS AAAA | Rank | W | L | Rating | Draw | Wins | Depth | Odds |
| Redan | 1 | 28 | 0 | 95.09 | 66.76 | 683,738 | 4.22 | 0.46 |
| Columbia | 2 | 12 | 5 | 79.23 | 72.24 | 74,670 | 2.33 | 12.39 |
| Columbus | 3 | 26 | 1 | 78.93 | 73.57 | 63,025 | 2.11 | 14.87 |
| Woodland (Stockbridge) | 6 | 23 | 4 | 73.60 | 70.52 | 32,787 | 2.17 | 29.50 |
| Mary Persons | 7 | 24 | 3 | 73.48 | 72.09 | 27,045 | 1.90 | 35.97 |
| Fayette County | 4 | 19 | 8 | 74.49 | 72.67 | 25,931 | 1.53 | 37.56 |
| Marist | 5 | 20 | 8 | 73.96 | 73.66 | 19,192 | 1.49 | 51.11 |
| South Effingham | 10 | 23 | 4 | 69.98 | 70.82 | 13,706 | 1.67 | 71.96 |
| Cross Creek | 12 | 22 | 3 | 69.72 | 72.69 | 9,932 | 1.47 | 99.68 |
| Rutland | 11 | 21 | 4 | 69.86 | 73.75 | 9,636 | 1.19 | 102.77 |
| River Ridge | 8 | 21 | 7 | 70.86 | 74.42 | 8,752 | 1.27 | 113.26 |
| Monroe | 13 | 23 | 4 | 68.13 | 72.99 | 6,830 | 1.23 | 145.42 |
| Dutchtown | 15 | 15 | 6 | 67.53 | 72.71 | 5,991 | 1.24 | 165.93 |
| Northwest Whitfield | 9 | 24 | 4 | 70.61 | 73.66 | 5,840 | 0.74 | 170.25 |
| Grady | 14 | 18 | 8 | 67.92 | 75.02 | 2,989 | 0.73 | 333.51 |
| Jonesboro | 16 | 17 | 9 | 66.66 | 74.66 | 2,846 | 0.66 | 350.39 |
| Chestatee | 18 | 24 | 4 | 66.19 | 75.36 | 1,909 | 0.70 | 522.71 |
| Burke County | 19 | 21 | 6 | 63.68 | 74.19 | 1,226 | 0.75 | 814.49 |
| Carrollton | 17 | 22 | 6 | 66.61 | 73.23 | 1,219 | 0.40 | 819.22 |
| Richmond Academy | 20 | 19 | 7 | 63.40 | 73.94 | 1,098 | 0.56 | 910.11 |
| Westover | 23 | 21 | 6 | 61.28 | 74.72 | 577 | 0.66 | 1,731.37 |
| Veterans | 24 | 18 | 10 | 61.25 | 74.43 | 514 | 0.47 | 1,943.48 |
| Heritage (Ringgold) | 22 | 21 | 7 | 61.50 | 76.31 | 265 | 0.26 | 3,770.95 |
| Gilmer | 29 | 17 | 10 | 59.44 | 77.47 | 86 | 0.14 | 11,646.74 |
| Griffin | 34 | 12 | 10 | 56.41 | 75.51 | 55 | 0.18 | 18,278.09 |
| Sandy Creek | 32 | 12 | 16 | 57.14 | 77.17 | 41 | 0.20 | 24,383.10 |
| Crisp County | 35 | 16 | 12 | 55.51 | 75.87 | 40 | 0.21 | 25,046.84 |
| Stephens County | 36 | 14 | 12 | 55.46 | 78.12 | 19 | 0.09 | 51,701.12 |
| Eastside | 39 | 13 | 12 | 54.41 | 77.38 | 15 | 0.16 | 66,233.68 |
| Westside (Macon) | 42 | 10 | 19 | 52.28 | 74.78 | 12 | 0.12 | 83,496.27 |
| Dougherty | 43 | 15 | 10 | 52.08 | 74.40 | 12 | 0.15 | 86,662.69 |
| Walnut Grove | 45 | 14 | 11 | 50.02 | 75.77 | 2 | 0.01 | 641,773.28 |
| CLASS AAA | Rank | W | L | Rating | Draw | Wins | Depth | Odds |
| Buford | 1 | 26 | 2 | 84.31 | 63.97 | 364,679 | 3.51 | 1.74 |
| St. Pius X Catholic | 2 | 26 | 3 | 84.22 | 68.77 | 296,032 | 3.21 | 2.38 |
| Washington County | 3 | 24 | 0 | 80.41 | 67.83 | 170,753 | 2.84 | 4.86 |
| Beach | 4 | 25 | 1 | 72.44 | 68.20 | 32,704 | 1.94 | 29.58 |
| Pike County | 10 | 21 | 7 | 68.13 | 67.46 | 19,871 | 1.80 | 49.32 |
| Morgan County | 5 | 20 | 4 | 70.52 | 70.75 | 19,400 | 1.62 | 50.55 |
| Franklin County | 6 | 22 | 6 | 69.30 | 70.79 | 15,416 | 1.29 | 63.87 |
| Decatur | 8 | 21 | 7 | 68.95 | 70.24 | 12,120 | 1.08 | 81.51 |
| Central (Carrollton) | 14 | 24 | 2 | 65.81 | 68.79 | 10,044 | 1.47 | 98.56 |
| Johnson (Savannah) | 15 | 22 | 7 | 65.22 | 67.04 | 9,990 | 1.65 | 99.11 |
| Tattnall County | 13 | 24 | 3 | 67.02 | 70.91 | 8,915 | 1.02 | 111.18 |
| North Hall | 11 | 18 | 9 | 68.05 | 71.83 | 8,570 | 0.94 | 115.68 |
| Southwest | 7 | 20 | 4 | 69.14 | 73.51 | 8,333 | 1.03 | 119.01 |
| Dawson County | 12 | 18 | 9 | 67.56 | 73.63 | 5,473 | 0.87 | 181.73 |
| Dodge County | 20 | 24 | 5 | 63.80 | 71.66 | 3,553 | 0.78 | 280.43 |
| East Hall | 18 | 16 | 14 | 64.30 | 69.95 | 3,297 | 1.09 | 302.30 |
| Peach County | 19 | 20 | 6 | 64.25 | 68.84 | 3,229 | 1.20 | 308.65 |
| Sonoraville | 17 | 21 | 6 | 64.53 | 72.53 | 3,014 | 0.70 | 330.81 |
| Cartersville | 16 | 23 | 4 | 64.59 | 74.32 | 2,305 | 0.71 | 432.79 |
| Woodward Academy | 22 | 18 | 10 | 61.70 | 72.93 | 915 | 0.41 | 1,092.13 |
| Chapel Hill | 21 | 21 | 5 | 62.00 | 75.19 | 766 | 0.49 | 1,304.44 |
| North Oconee | 25 | 19 | 10 | 59.95 | 73.62 | 306 | 0.11 | 3,266.31 |
| Central (Macon) | 29 | 8 | 16 | 54.97 | 70.96 | 150 | 0.31 | 6,671.79 |
| Elbert County | 28 | 16 | 12 | 57.10 | 71.09 | 121 | 0.23 | 8,232.90 |
| Blessed Trinity | 31 | 14 | 14 | 53.33 | 74.19 | 27 | 0.16 | 37,512.24 |
| Callaway | 38 | 17 | 8 | 48.09 | 71.47 | 7 | 0.12 | 145,233.01 |
| Pierce County | 36 | 11 | 12 | 49.46 | 74.02 | 5 | 0.05 | 214,601.41 |
| Thomson | 40 | 10 | 16 | 46.07 | 71.68 | 4 | 0.13 | 264,894.51 |
| North Murray | 39 | 11 | 16 | 46.16 | 71.70 | 1 | 0.13 | 730,177.11 |
| Ringgold | 48 | 6 | 21 | 40.31 | 72.77 | - | 0.01 | 11,712,091.99 |
| Jefferson County | 47 | 7 | 20 | 40.65 | 74.56 | - | 0.04 | 11,923,815.76 |
| Jackson | 53 | 3 | 19 | 38.23 | 72.70 | - | 0.06 | 28,010,215.64 |
| Class AA | Rank | W | L | Rating | Draw | Wins | Depth | Odds |
| Kendrick | 1 | 27 | 0 | 89.40 | 65.13 | 434,406 | 3.78 | 1.30 |
| Wesleyan | 2 | 24 | 3 | 87.39 | 67.31 | 333,337 | 3.67 | 2.00 |
| Pelham | 3 | 26 | 0 | 80.32 | 68.60 | 94,602 | 2.78 | 9.57 |
| GAC | 4 | 22 | 6 | 78.82 | 68.22 | 80,835 | 2.30 | 11.37 |
| Laney | 5 | 26 | 1 | 76.63 | 70.12 | 43,140 | 2.35 | 22.18 |
| Putnam County | 6 | 25 | 2 | 62.86 | 64.75 | 4,668 | 1.91 | 213.22 |
| Bleckley County | 12 | 20 | 7 | 60.61 | 68.61 | 1,464 | 1.01 | 682.24 |
| Armuchee | 8 | 21 | 6 | 62.47 | 70.67 | 1,340 | 1.32 | 745.20 |
| Westside (Augusta) | 13 | 18 | 8 | 60.23 | 68.89 | 1,339 | 1.07 | 745.58 |
| Vidalia | 14 | 21 | 5 | 58.98 | 68.94 | 968 | 0.97 | 1,032.27 |
| Pepperell | 9 | 22 | 3 | 62.24 | 71.47 | 945 | 1.00 | 1,057.09 |
| Jefferson | 10 | 20 | 9 | 60.92 | 71.76 | 807 | 1.18 | 1,238.42 |
| Rabun County | 7 | 17 | 9 | 62.58 | 71.92 | 774 | 0.73 | 1,290.74 |
| Calhoun | 11 | 20 | 6 | 60.69 | 71.77 | 539 | 0.78 | 1,852.99 |
| Cook | 20 | 20 | 8 | 53.97 | 68.79 | 161 | 0.70 | 6,224.83 |
| Dublin | 22 | 15 | 11 | 53.50 | 68.77 | 157 | 0.78 | 6,381.50 |
| Early County | 19 | 16 | 10 | 54.06 | 70.57 | 151 | 0.57 | 6,601.11 |
| Taylor County | 16 | 19 | 10 | 55.48 | 72.78 | 91 | 0.85 | 10,929.58 |
| Westminster | 15 | 13 | 15 | 57.31 | 71.79 | 85 | 0.35 | 11,741.15 |
| Union County | 17 | 16 | 11 | 55.31 | 73.73 | 42 | 0.05 | 24,083.92 |
| Spencer | 18 | 16 | 9 | 54.28 | 71.86 | 37 | 0.33 | 27,295.98 |
| Monticello | 21 | 16 | 10 | 53.51 | 74.15 | 34 | 0.58 | 29,515.95 |
| Lovett | 24 | 7 | 18 | 52.19 | 73.51 | 23 | 0.35 | 43,106.57 |
| McIntosh County Acad. | 25 | 17 | 9 | 51.40 | 74.60 | 17 | 0.54 | 59,649.27 |
| Thomasville | 23 | 17 | 11 | 52.65 | 74.91 | 16 | 0.11 | 61,823.06 |
| Greene County | 26 | 17 | 9 | 51.02 | 76.06 | 7 | 0.07 | 134,442.39 |
| Manchester | 29 | 17 | 10 | 47.86 | 75.17 | 5 | 0.27 | 203,406.72 |
| Josey | 27 | 12 | 9 | 49.04 | 74.86 | 4 | 0.05 | 251,732.62 |
| Bowdon | 28 | 19 | 10 | 48.84 | 74.15 | 4 | 0.19 | 284,429.46 |
| St. Vincent's | 32 | 15 | 10 | 45.34 | 74.22 | 1 | 0.25 | 900,080.79 |
| Model | 30 | 9 | 18 | 45.81 | 73.85 | 1 | 0.01 | 1,415,505.13 |
| Bryan County | 41 | 14 | 16 | 38.62 | 69.59 | - | 0.08 | 5,121,516.81 |
