High School Sports Blog

Maxwell Quarterfinal summary

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North Gwinnett quarterback J.R. Martin (17) and running back Devin Crosby (31) celebrate the closing seconds of their win against McEachern in the Class 7A quarterfinals at McEachern High School Friday, November 29, 2019 in Powder Springs, Ga. North Gwinnett won 32-13. (JASON GETZ/SPECIAL TO THE AJC)
By Loren Maxwell
Dec 3, 2019

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association’s 422 teams throughout the 2019 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

» MORE: GHSA football playoff schedule, brackets

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season’s games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team’s historical performance is 0.07%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 2,094 of 2,265 total games including 1 tie(s) (92.47%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.71 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Home Advantage: 1.06

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Lowndes13-096.051Dacula13-080.62
2North Gwinnett12-187.412Harrison13-074.07
3Colquitt County9-383.413Valdosta10-370.49
4Parkview12-183.264Lee County11-268.67
5Marietta11-281.485Allatoona10-2-165.42
6McEachern12-180.726Coffee9-462.11
7Grayson11-280.127Johns Creek10-258.92
8Mill Creek10-374.568Richmond Hill9-357.66
9Archer9-471.669Houston County7-655.59
10Camden County7-368.8310Lanier10-254.93
11Milton8-466.3711Glynn Academy6-553.35
12Collins Hill6-563.0512Dalton7-452.31
13North Cobb7-460.1113Mays10-251.89
14Newton7-460.0114Stephenson10-250.02
15Hillgrove7-459.7215Brunswick6-647.59
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Buford12-172.701Woodward Academy13-077.05
2Warner Robins12-172.672Cartersville12-170.00
3Carrollton12-167.533Blessed Trinity12-169.46
4Ware County8-462.074Sandy Creek12-166.60
5Jones County12-160.245Marist11-265.14
6Rome9-359.906Oconee County12-164.36
7Dutchtown11-259.737West Laurens11-259.34
8Veterans9-356.778Denmark7-356.73
9Bainbridge7-456.459Flowery Branch7-455.30
10Griffin11-255.9510Carver (Columbus)10-251.55
11Clarke Central9-455.1511Cairo8-348.88
12Wayne County8-353.9612North Oconee10-248.53
13Starr's Mill10-353.1113Burke County8-347.54
14Kell9-351.3514Troup6-547.51
15Statesboro5-549.2115Cedartown5-645.58
AAA AA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Cedar Grove11-271.021Dublin12-157.86
2Peach County11-261.652Callaway12-156.60
3Jefferson10-258.803Hapeville Charter10-2-155.68
4Jenkins12-158.374Brooks County9-452.27
5Crisp County10-358.305Rabun County12-151.63
6Greater Atlanta Christian12-155.546Thomasville9-449.27
7Pierce County11-154.467Rockmart11-147.24
8Hart County10-349.538Fitzgerald8-444.96
9North Murray11-246.999Washington County7-442.06
10Appling County9-346.6510Bleckley County7-439.33
11Westminster (Atlanta)6-545.6511Douglass11-238.96
12Dawson County8-443.8212Swainsboro8-438.01
13Benedictine8-443.0413Bremen8-436.57
14North Hall8-442.3714Dodge County4-736.04
15Calhoun10-242.0015Northeast5-535.93
A - Public A - Private
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Irwin County11-064.181Holy Innocents12-071.32
2Clinch County11-153.912Eagle's Landing Christian11-169.71
3Pelham11-145.263Athens Academy11-160.30
4Mitchell County10-242.464Fellowship Christian12-053.87
5Wilcox County9-338.645Wesleyan11-251.06
6Commerce9-332.746Prince Avenue Christian9-346.42
7Marion County10-232.357Hebron Christian8-542.61
8Lincoln County9-331.268Darlington9-238.71
9Manchester10-330.979Christian Heritage9-236.47
10Bowdon8-327.6010Savannah Christian8-433.38
11Johnson County8-324.9511Savannah Country Day10-132.62
12Turner County7-523.1412Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)7-430.83
13Warren County8-521.7713Mount de Sales10-130.74
14Schley County7-521.1114Whitefield Academy7-430.29
15McIntosh County Academy5-619.4715Mount Vernon Presbyterian5-629.67

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

Rank Team Region Rec Rating SchStr Rank
1 [1]Lowndes1 - AAAAAAA13-096.0564.543 [3]
2 [2]North Gwinnett6 - AAAAAAA12-187.4153.2316 [13]
3 [3]Colquitt County1 - AAAAAAA9-383.4169.531 [1]
4 [4]Parkview7 - AAAAAAA12-183.2649.1431 [22]
5 [5]Marietta3 - AAAAAAA11-281.4864.014 [4]
6 [6]McEachern3 - AAAAAAA12-180.7254.3714 [12]
7 [1]Dacula8 - AAAAAA13-080.6244.8064 [11]
8 [7]Grayson8 - AAAAAAA11-280.1258.627 [7]
9 [1]Woodward Academy4 - AAAA13-077.0522.89267 [42]
10 [8]Mill Creek6 - AAAAAAA10-374.5658.228 [8]
11 [2]Harrison6 - AAAAAA13-074.0738.40121 [24]
12 [1]Buford8 - AAAAA12-172.7046.9847 [9]
13 [2]Warner Robins1 - AAAAA12-172.6750.0928 [4]
14 [9]Archer8 - AAAAAAA9-471.6659.956 [6]
15 [1]Holy Innocents5 - A12-071.3221.56285 [16]
16 [1]Cedar Grove5 - AAA11-271.0237.79129 [3]
17 [3]Valdosta1 - AAAAAA10-370.4955.4513 [2]
18 [2]Cartersville5 - AAAA12-170.0045.0563 [7]
19 [2]Eagle's Landing Christian5 - A11-169.7133.44167 [2]
20 [3]Blessed Trinity7 - AAAA12-169.4647.0846 [1]
21 [10]Camden County1 - AAAAAAA7-368.8363.145 [5]
22 [4]Lee County1 - AAAAAA11-268.6747.2842 [7]
23 [3]Carrollton7 - AAAAA12-167.5338.02127 [26]
24 [4]Sandy Creek5 - AAAA12-166.6038.78116 [23]
25 [11]Milton5 - AAAAAAA8-466.3748.3436 [26]
26 [5]Allatoona6 - AAAAAA10-2-165.4246.1255 [9]
27 [5]Marist7 - AAAA11-265.1446.2653 [4]
28 [6]Oconee County8 - AAAA12-164.3640.36105 [17]
29 [1]Irwin County2 - A11-064.1821.15291 [8]
30 [12]Collins Hill6 - AAAAAAA6-563.0557.159 [9]
31 [6]Coffee1 - AAAAAA9-462.1150.3227 [5]
32 [4]Ware County2 - AAAAA8-462.0753.0117 [1]
33 [2]Peach County4 - AAA11-261.6533.57166 [7]
34 [3]Athens Academy8 - A11-160.3026.24242 [8]
35 [5]Jones County4 - AAAAA12-160.2442.6181 [15]
36 [13]North Cobb3 - AAAAAAA7-460.1150.0829 [20]
37 [14]Newton8 - AAAAAAA7-460.0151.4922 [17]
38 [6]Rome7 - AAAAA9-359.9033.03176 [34]
39 [7]Dutchtown4 - AAAAA11-259.7342.7580 [14]
40 [15]Hillgrove3 - AAAAAAA7-459.7248.6534 [24]
41 [7]West Laurens2 - AAAA11-259.3438.93115 [22]
42 [7]Johns Creek7 - AAAAAA10-258.9232.02186 [44]
43 [3]Jefferson8 - AAA10-258.8032.97178 [12]
44 [4]Jenkins3 - AAA12-158.3726.25241 [33]
45 [5]Crisp County1 - AAA10-358.3042.8978 [1]
46 [1]Dublin3 - AA12-157.8634.81154 [7]
47 [8]Richmond Hill2 - AAAAAA9-357.6643.3975 [14]
48 [8]Veterans1 - AAAAA9-356.7748.2038 [6]
49 [8]Denmark7 - AAAA7-356.7340.04109 [19]
50 [16]Roswell4 - AAAAAAA8-356.6240.28106 [44]
51 [2]Callaway5 - AA12-156.6021.68282 [22]
52 [9]Bainbridge1 - AAAAA7-456.4551.3523 [3]
53 [17]East Coweta2 - AAAAAAA6-656.2156.6111 [10]
54 [10]Griffin3 - AAAAA11-255.9538.15125 [25]
55 [18]Tift County1 - AAAAAAA3-755.7366.652 [2]
56 [3]Hapeville Charter6 - AA10-2-155.6824.13256 [19]
57 [9]Houston County1 - AAAAAA7-655.5953.7415 [3]
58 [6]Greater Atlanta Christian7 - AAA12-155.5433.40169 [8]
59 [19]Norcross7 - AAAAAAA6-655.3152.2119 [15]
60 [9]Flowery Branch7 - AAAA7-455.3045.3161 [6]
61 [11]Clarke Central8 - AAAAA9-455.1545.2562 [12]
62 [10]Lanier8 - AAAAAA10-254.9340.80100 [16]
63 [7]Pierce County2 - AAA11-154.4625.21248 [36]
64 [20]Shiloh8 - AAAAAAA7-454.2743.3276 [37]
65 [12]Wayne County2 - AAAAA8-353.9645.8657 [11]
66 [2]Clinch County2 - A11-153.9123.66262 [3]
67 [4]Fellowship Christian6 - A12-053.8718.52324 [25]
68 [11]Glynn Academy2 - AAAAAA6-553.3548.2837 [6]
69 [21]Cherokee4 - AAAAAAA8-453.1345.4759 [33]
70 [13]Starr's Mill3 - AAAAA10-353.1139.44112 [23]
71 [12]Dalton6 - AAAAAA7-452.3135.54149 [38]
72 [4]Brooks County1 - AA9-452.2742.0687 [2]
73 [22]Mountain View6 - AAAAAAA5-651.9456.3112 [11]
74 [13]Mays5 - AAAAAA10-251.8936.90137 [33]
75 [5]Rabun County8 - AA12-151.6321.20290 [25]
76 [10]Carver (Columbus)1 - AAAA10-251.5529.43214 [34]
77 [14]Kell7 - AAAAA9-351.3534.80155 [31]
78 [5]Wesleyan5 - A11-251.0626.62237 [7]
79 [23]North Paulding3 - AAAAAAA6-550.2847.4639 [27]
80 [24]Walton4 - AAAAAAA6-650.0950.5026 [19]
81 [14]Stephenson4 - AAAAAA10-250.0231.66188 [46]
82 [8]Hart County8 - AAA10-349.5332.09185 [14]
83 [6]Thomasville1 - AA9-449.2742.0886 [1]
84 [15]Statesboro2 - AAAAA5-549.2148.9732 [5]
85 [11]Cairo1 - AAAA8-348.8834.69156 [29]
86 [25]South Forsyth5 - AAAAAAA6-548.6748.4635 [25]
87 [12]North Oconee8 - AAAA10-248.5328.89218 [35]
88 [26]Westlake2 - AAAAAAA6-548.5247.1044 [30]
89 [16]South Effingham2 - AAAAA6-548.2947.1045 [8]
90 [17]Stockbridge4 - AAAAA8-348.0037.28133 [28]
91 [15]Brunswick2 - AAAAAA6-647.5944.4569 [12]
92 [13]Burke County3 - AAAA8-347.5435.24152 [28]
93 [14]Troup5 - AAAA6-547.5144.6566 [9]
94 [7]Rockmart7 - AA11-147.2417.00346 [37]
95 [18]Ola4 - AAAAA7-447.1240.73101 [21]
96 [9]North Murray6 - AAA11-246.9924.32255 [39]
97 [27]South Gwinnett8 - AAAAAAA4-646.7550.8525 [18]
98 [16]Northside (Warner Robins)1 - AAAAAA3-746.7256.9710 [1]
99 [10]Appling County2 - AAA9-346.6529.06216 [22]
100 [6]Prince Avenue Christian8 - A9-346.4220.65297 [19]
101 [19]Union Grove4 - AAAAA7-346.1428.56222 [41]
102 [17]Creekside5 - AAAAAA7-546.0740.25107 [20]
103 [18]South Paulding5 - AAAAAA9-345.9037.10135 [31]
104 [19]Sprayberry6 - AAAAAA6-545.8342.9277 [15]
105 [11]Westminster (Atlanta)5 - AAA6-545.6542.0389 [2]
106 [15]Cedartown5 - AAAA5-645.5844.4270 [11]
107 [3]Pelham1 - A11-145.26-1.03413 [45]
108 [20]Cedar Shoals8 - AAAAA8-445.2535.78146 [30]
109 [8]Fitzgerald1 - AA8-444.9634.26161 [8]
110 [28]Etowah4 - AAAAAAA5-644.9546.3751 [32]
111 [29]West Forsyth5 - AAAAAAA4-644.7547.4340 [28]
112 [30]North Forsyth5 - AAAAAAA7-544.5841.5395 [42]
113 [31]Newnan2 - AAAAAAA6-544.3742.2784 [38]
114 [16]Chapel Hill5 - AAAA5-544.3245.5958 [5]
115 [20]Gainesville8 - AAAAAA5-644.0546.1354 [8]
116 [12]Dawson County7 - AAA8-443.8230.89197 [17]
117 [17]Thomson3 - AAAA6-643.7141.6994 [15]
118 [21]Creekview6 - AAAAAA6-443.1338.03126 [27]
119 [18]Baldwin3 - AAAA5-743.1046.2952 [3]
120 [13]Benedictine3 - AAA8-443.0426.95236 [29]
121 [21]Riverdale3 - AAAAA7-442.8030.50200 [38]
122 [22]Alexander5 - AAAAAA6-542.8038.22124 [26]
123 [7]Hebron Christian8 - A8-542.6133.05175 [3]
124 [4]Mitchell County1 - A10-242.46-0.52412 [44]
125 [14]North Hall7 - AAA8-442.3732.33182 [13]
126 [19]Perry2 - AAAA7-542.3138.44120 [25]
127 [9]Washington County3 - AA7-442.0635.79145 [4]
128 [15]Calhoun6 - AAA10-242.0020.19303 [49]
129 [16]Lovett5 - AAA7-441.9235.83144 [5]
130 [23]Alpharetta7 - AAAAAA7-441.8835.62147 [37]
131 [32]Brookwood7 - AAAAAAA5-641.8541.9591 [40]
132 [22]Thomas County Central1 - AAAAA5-541.4641.7992 [19]
133 [24]Tucker4 - AAAAAA6-541.1737.93128 [28]
134 [23]Harris County1 - AAAAA5-641.0646.8048 [10]
135 [24]Hiram7 - AAAAA6-640.7942.0290 [18]
136 [25]New Hampstead2 - AAAAA3-740.7152.0320 [2]
137 [20]St. Pius X8 - AAAA6-640.4542.8779 [13]
138 [26]Riverwood6 - AAAAA11-140.0021.02294 [48]
139 [25]Sequoyah6 - AAAAAA5-539.9039.21114 [21]
140 [21]Americus-Sumter1 - AAAA6-639.4840.25108 [18]
141 [26]Winder-Barrow8 - AAAAAA3-839.3750.9424 [4]
142 [10]Bleckley County3 - AA7-439.3332.98177 [11]
143 [27]Southwest DeKalb5 - AAAAA9-239.2918.37326 [53]
144 [17]Islands3 - AAA8-239.1419.42310 [50]
145 [11]Douglass6 - AA11-238.9612.22378 [46]
146 [8]Darlington6 - A9-238.7121.82276 [13]
147 [5]Wilcox County2 - A9-338.6414.18364 [24]
148 [33]Rockdale County8 - AAAAAAA4-638.5048.9133 [23]
149 [28]Jonesboro3 - AAAAA5-638.4642.0388 [17]
150 [34]Woodstock4 - AAAAAAA3-738.4346.3850 [31]
151 [18]Liberty County2 - AAA6-338.3726.53239 [31]
152 [22]White County7 - AAAA5-538.2237.76130 [26]
153 [23]Mary Persons2 - AAAA6-638.2139.55111 [20]
154 [12]Swainsboro2 - AA8-438.0128.53223 [15]
155 [27]Morrow4 - AAAAAA6-537.8235.17153 [39]
156 [35]Wheeler2 - AAAAAAA5-637.7341.7193 [41]
157 [28]Evans3 - AAAAAA7-337.4929.34215 [54]
158 [19]Monroe Area8 - AAA7-436.9429.57210 [21]
159 [20]Jackson4 - AAA8-436.9426.55238 [30]
160 [24]Upson-Lee2 - AAAA4-736.8344.7765 [8]
161 [13]Bremen5 - AA8-436.5724.41254 [18]
162 [9]Christian Heritage6 - A9-236.4718.66322 [24]
163 [14]Dodge County3 - AA4-736.0441.1098 [3]
164 [15]Northeast3 - AA5-535.9334.17162 [9]
165 [16]Metter2 - AA10-335.7421.49288 [24]
166 [25]Howard2 - AAAA5-535.6335.95143 [27]
167 [29]Lovejoy4 - AAAAAA6-435.5429.47213 [53]
168 [30]Douglas County5 - AAAAAA5-535.4236.43141 [36]
169 [21]Pace Academy5 - AAA5-535.3036.86138 [4]
170 [26]Madison County8 - AAAA6-734.9638.51119 [24]
171 [27]Westover1 - AAAA6-434.7728.59221 [36]
172 [31]Northview7 - AAAAAA6-534.1831.06194 [50]
173 [32]M.L. King4 - AAAAAA7-433.9928.77220 [56]
174 [33]North Atlanta7 - AAAAAA7-433.8527.68228 [57]
175 [17]Pepperell7 - AA9-333.7217.20342 [35]
176 [18]Toombs County2 - AA8-333.6418.35327 [29]
177 [22]Morgan County8 - AAA7-433.5828.23225 [24]
178 [19]Union County8 - AA10-233.4012.13379 [47]
179 [10]Savannah Christian3 - A8-433.3820.66296 [18]
180 [28]Hardaway1 - AAAA7-433.0327.64230 [37]
181 [23]Westside (Macon)4 - AAA6-532.8630.43202 [20]
182 [6]Commerce8 - A9-332.7412.96371 [27]
183 [36]Peachtree Ridge6 - AAAAAAA3-732.7247.3741 [29]
184 [20]Jefferson County4 - AA9-332.6315.74352 [40]
185 [11]Savannah Country Day3 - A10-132.6215.56353 [31]
186 [7]Marion County4 - A10-232.3516.08349 [18]
187 [29]Central (Carrollton)5 - AAAA3-732.2341.3096 [16]
188 [37]Central Gwinnett7 - AAAAAAA3-832.2149.4730 [21]
189 [30]Eastside4 - AAAA7-431.9120.34301 [45]
190 [29]Columbia5 - AAAAA5-631.8628.50224 [42]
191 [34]Lakeside (Evans)3 - AAAAAA7-331.7727.51232 [58]
192 [30]Loganville8 - AAAAA3-831.7239.61110 [22]
193 [31]Shaw1 - AAAA6-431.7227.53231 [38]
194 [8]Lincoln County7 - A9-331.2615.11357 [20]
195 [31]East Paulding7 - AAAAA4-631.1038.29123 [24]
196 [9]Manchester4 - A10-330.9714.42363 [23]
197 [12]Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)5 - A7-430.8324.68250 [10]
198 [13]Mount de Sales7 - A10-130.748.67397 [35]
199 [14]Whitefield Academy6 - A7-430.2921.62284 [15]
200 [35]Cambridge7 - AAAAAA4-630.0832.94179 [43]
201 [36]Heritage (Conyers)3 - AAAAAA5-629.7731.74187 [45]
202 [37]Pope7 - AAAAAA5-529.7531.23191 [48]
203 [38]Habersham Central8 - AAAAAA3-729.7538.61118 [23]
204 [15]Mount Vernon Presbyterian5 - A5-629.6729.64208 [5]
205 [16]North Cobb Christian6 - A8-429.5521.14292 [17]
206 [32]Eagle's Landing4 - AAAAA2-829.5042.3683 [16]
207 [39]Mundy's Mill4 - AAAAAA5-529.4429.92204 [52]
208 [33]Carver (Atlanta)6 - AAAAA7-429.4321.51286 [47]
209 [24]Haralson County6 - AAA8-328.9714.82360 [55]
210 [38]Pebblebrook2 - AAAAAAA3-728.9441.2697 [43]
211 [40]Northgate5 - AAAAAA3-728.9138.39122 [25]
212 [41]Bradwell Institute2 - AAAAAA3-728.9040.44103 [18]
213 [21]Early County1 - AA5-628.7229.55211 [13]
214 [22]Vidalia2 - AA7-428.4921.73280 [21]
215 [42]Apalachee8 - AAAAAA3-728.2438.67117 [22]
216 [39]Forsyth Central5 - AAAAAAA4-527.9025.28246 [47]
217 [25]Fannin County7 - AAA6-527.8927.24233 [28]
218 [23]Southwest3 - AA4-627.8835.28151 [6]
219 [10]Bowdon6 - A8-327.6022.28273 [5]
220 [24]Jeff Davis2 - AA7-327.4416.01351 [39]
221 [17]St. Francis6 - A7-527.3921.72281 [14]
222 [43]Effingham County2 - AAAAAA2-827.3543.4273 [13]
223 [44]Mount Zion (Jonesboro)4 - AAAAAA3-727.0634.50158 [40]
224 [34]Locust Grove4 - AAAAA1-827.0147.1943 [7]
225 [45]Grovetown3 - AAAAAA4-626.9531.57189 [47]
226 [35]Whitewater3 - AAAAA2-826.6543.8771 [13]
227 [25]Elbert County8 - AA6-526.6021.49287 [24]
228 [36]Decatur6 - AAAAA7-426.5018.73321 [52]
229 [32]Ridgeland6 - AAAA6-525.9523.99259 [39]
230 [40]Discovery6 - AAAAAAA2-825.7252.3918 [14]
231 [18]George Walton Academy8 - A6-525.6917.45337 [29]
232 [37]Cass7 - AAAAA4-625.3232.57181 [35]
233 [26]Beach3 - AAA5-425.1222.09275 [45]
234 [33]LaGrange5 - AAAA2-825.1043.5972 [12]
235 [46]Hughes5 - AAAAAA2-825.0740.37104 [19]
236 [34]Heritage (Ringgold)6 - AAAA8-325.0717.45338 [50]
237 [11]Johnson County3 - A8-324.959.13394 [34]
238 [35]Northwest Whitfield6 - AAAA7-424.5719.32313 [49]
239 [36]Pickens6 - AAAA6-524.4320.77295 [44]
240 [27]Cook1 - AAA4-824.2333.05174 [11]
241 [37]Stephens County8 - AAAA1-923.8744.6068 [10]
242 [47]River Ridge6 - AAAAAA3-723.8740.65102 [17]
243 [26]Heard County5 - AA4-723.7329.69207 [12]
244 [19]Mount Paran Christian6 - A7-523.1819.30314 [22]
245 [12]Turner County2 - A7-523.1421.74279 [7]
246 [48]Chattahoochee7 - AAAAAA3-723.0730.84198 [51]
247 [27]South Atlanta6 - AA7-423.0312.45376 [44]
248 [28]Sonoraville6 - AAA5-622.5022.87268 [43]
249 [20]Brookstone4 - A7-522.4417.48336 [28]
250 [38]Paulding County7 - AAAAA3-722.2536.19142 [29]
251 [49]New Manchester5 - AAAAAA2-822.0533.78165 [42]
252 [28]Harlem4 - AA7-421.8611.35380 [48]
253 [13]Warren County7 - A8-521.7713.50368 [26]
254 [38]Chestatee7 - AAAA2-821.4742.5682 [14]
255 [29]Monroe1 - AAA4-721.3830.92196 [16]
256 [39]McIntosh3 - AAAAA3-721.3532.22183 [36]
257 [21]Aquinas7 - A7-421.2212.90372 [33]
258 [14]Schley County4 - A7-521.1112.72374 [29]
259 [22]First Presbyterian7 - A5-621.0120.53299 [20]
260 [30]Central (Macon)4 - AAA3-820.8533.34170 [9]
261 [40]Lithonia5 - AAAAA6-520.7320.33302 [49]
262 [31]Cherokee Bluff7 - AAA3-720.4834.68157 [6]
263 [41]Meadowcreek7 - AAAAAAA3-720.3135.54148 [45]
264 [42]Lassiter4 - AAAAAAA1-919.8145.3760 [34]
265 [32]Windsor Forest3 - AAA5-619.5319.41311 [51]
266 [39]Richmond Academy3 - AAAA4-619.4932.20184 [33]
267 [50]Alcovy3 - AAAAAA2-819.4834.33160 [41]
268 [15]McIntosh County Academy3 - A5-619.4719.35312 [11]
269 [23]Calvary Day3 - A6-519.3319.01317 [23]
270 [41]Banneker6 - AAAAA4-619.2823.70261 [45]
271 [51]Dunwoody7 - AAAAAA3-719.2531.12192 [49]
272 [42]Maynard Jackson6 - AAAAA5-519.0419.22315 [50]
273 [52]Greenbrier3 - AAAAAA2-918.9236.85139 [34]
274 [29]Hephzibah4 - AA7-318.926.84400 [59]
275 [16]Emanuel County Institute3 - A6-618.8216.81347 [16]
276 [40]Dougherty1 - AAAA2-818.7534.45159 [30]
277 [30]Temple5 - AA6-518.3617.15344 [36]
278 [43]Villa Rica7 - AAAAA2-817.7233.95163 [32]
279 [33]Adairsville6 - AAA5-617.1721.80278 [46]
280 [31]Screven County4 - AA7-416.9910.42387 [52]
281 [32]B.E.S.T. Academy6 - AA4-716.5927.06235 [16]
282 [34]Brantley County2 - AAA5-616.5721.63283 [47]
283 [17]Telfair County2 - A4-616.4120.06305 [10]
284 [18]Washington-Wilkes7 - A6-516.3315.20354 [19]
285 [35]Stone Mountain5 - AAA3-715.9525.31245 [35]
286 [44]Fayette County3 - AAAAA2-815.9530.37203 [39]
287 [36]Jackson County8 - AAA3-715.6827.67229 [27]
288 [24]Stratford Academy7 - A4-715.5422.73270 [11]
289 [33]Model7 - AA5-615.3716.01350 [39]
290 [37]Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe6 - AAA4-615.2618.92319 [53]
291 [19]Macon County4 - A6-515.2512.79373 [28]
292 [41]Hampton4 - AAAA5-615.2419.75308 [48]
293 [34]Lamar County5 - AA6-414.8710.42386 [52]
294 [35]Chattooga7 - AA5-614.8219.09316 [28]
295 [45]Grady6 - AAAAA3-714.4024.55252 [44]
296 [20]Claxton3 - A6-514.3112.64375 [30]
297 [43]Lambert5 - AAAAAAA0-1014.2642.2285 [39]
298 [38]Franklin County8 - AAA2-814.2630.82199 [18]
299 [39]Southeast Bulloch3 - AAA4-714.2120.59298 [48]
300 [25]Tattnall Square7 - A5-514.1617.02345 [30]
301 [42]Spalding2 - AAAA1-914.1539.32113 [21]
302 [44]Kennesaw Mountain3 - AAAAAAA0-1013.8651.5521 [16]
303 [21]Dooly County4 - A4-613.4318.51325 [13]
304 [36]Washington6 - AA4-613.3317.33339 [34]
305 [46]Woodland (Stockbridge)4 - AAAAA1-913.2541.0199 [20]
306 [43]Luella4 - AAAA4-713.1023.14265 [41]
307 [40]Worth County1 - AAA2-812.7430.45201 [19]
308 [26]Walker6 - A4-612.6620.00306 [21]
309 [44]LaFayette6 - AAAA3-711.8219.91307 [47]
310 [22]Trion6 - A5-611.6816.42348 [17]
311 [23]Chattahoochee County1 - A7-511.631.29407 [40]
312 [47]Lithia Springs6 - AAAAA4-711.2418.87320 [51]
313 [37]Berrien1 - AA2-811.2233.21173 [10]
314 [24]Gordon Lee6 - A4-611.2117.16343 [15]
315 [48]Arabia Mountain5 - AAAAA2-910.8833.21172 [33]
316 [25]Lanier County2 - A3-710.7224.06258 [2]
317 [38]Spencer5 - AA3-710.6622.10274 [20]
318 [26]Hancock Central7 - A5-510.649.68390 [33]
319 [27]Atkinson County2 - A3-710.3621.09293 [9]
320 [41]Pike County4 - AAA4-610.3314.92359 [54]
321 [39]Putnam County8 - AA5-610.1618.10328 [31]
322 [40]Monticello8 - AA3-79.7520.42300 [26]
323 [27]Mount Pisgah Christian6 - A3-79.7422.70272 [12]
324 [53]South Cobb6 - AAAAAA1-99.6246.0456 [10]
325 [42]East Hall7 - AAA2-89.5231.00195 [15]
326 [45]Campbell2 - AAAAAAA0-109.4844.6267 [35]
327 [45]Northside (Columbus)1 - AAAA1-99.3632.66180 [32]
328 [28]Terrell County1 - A7-49.30-4.45416 [48]
329 [46]Gilmer6 - AAAA4-68.9513.46369 [53]
330 [47]Columbus1 - AAAA1-98.5133.44168 [31]
331 [29]Taylor County4 - A5-68.3213.54366 [25]
332 [28]Athens Christian8 - A4-67.9017.90330 [26]
333 [41]Therrell6 - AA3-77.7017.55334 [33]
334 [43]East Jackson8 - AAA3-77.3823.79260 [41]
335 [48]McDonough4 - AAAA4-67.0417.28340 [51]
336 [54]Centennial7 - AAAAAA0-107.0036.68140 [35]
337 [30]Montgomery County3 - A5-56.769.05395 [35]
338 [49]Woodland (Cartersville)7 - AAAAA1-95.9831.12193 [37]
339 [55]Tri-Cities5 - AAAAAA0-105.7837.57132 [29]
340 [46]Duluth6 - AAAAAAA1-95.6743.4074 [36]
341 [44]Redan5 - AAA3-75.6625.48244 [34]
342 [45]Murray County6 - AAA4-65.4913.53367 [56]
343 [29]Riverside Military Academy8 - A5-54.873.70405 [37]
344 [42]Gordon Central7 - AA3-74.2015.18355 [41]
345 [56]Drew4 - AAAAAA1-94.0237.24134 [30]
346 [31]Wilkinson County7 - A2-83.6121.81277 [6]
347 [46]Rutland4 - AAA2-83.5827.75227 [26]
348 [47]Berkmar7 - AAAAAAA4-63.3117.70331 [48]
349 [50]Johnson (Gainesville)8 - AAAAA4-63.1615.16356 [54]
350 [43]East Laurens3 - AA1-93.1235.41150 [5]
351 [44]Laney4 - AA4-63.1210.85382 [49]
352 [30]Pacelli4 - A5-53.085.20404 [36]
353 [31]Strong Rock Christian5 - A2-82.6933.90164 [1]
354 [32]Pinecrest Academy6 - A2-82.2017.67332 [27]
355 [47]Lumpkin County7 - AAA1-92.1326.31240 [32]
356 [45]Banks County8 - AA3-71.9913.27370 [43]
357 [48]Johnson (Savannah)3 - AAA2-81.9924.10257 [40]
358 [32]Greenville4 - A4-61.506.48401 [36]
359 [46]Westside (Augusta)4 - AA3-71.478.94396 [56]
360 [49]Salem4 - AAAA2-81.3620.17304 [46]
361 [33]Lakeview Academy8 - A2-71.3326.07243 [9]
362 [51]Chamblee5 - AAAAA1-80.7422.72271 [46]
363 [52]Miller Grove5 - AAAAA0-100.6329.62209 [40]
364 [49]Tattnall County2 - AAA1-90.3228.88219 [23]
365 [47]Glenn Hills4 - AA4-60.039.99388 [53]
366 [33]Jenkins County3 - A3-70.0110.98381 [31]
367 [50]North Clayton4 - AAAA2-8-0.3121.25289 [43]
368 [53]Walnut Grove8 - AAAAA0-10-1.3837.76131 [27]
369 [34]Charlton County2 - A1-9-1.7129.69206 [1]
370 [48]Bacon County2 - AA1-9-1.8529.54212 [14]
371 [51]Cross Creek3 - AAAA2-8-1.9723.62263 [40]
372 [34]Landmark Christian5 - A2-8-2.2727.08234 [6]
373 [50]Coahulla Creek6 - AAA2-8-2.3318.97318 [52]
374 [54]North Springs6 - AAAAA1-9-2.5025.21247 [43]
375 [57]Forest Park4 - AAAAAA1-9-3.2228.97217 [55]
376 [49]Butler4 - AA2-8-3.468.14399 [58]
377 [50]KIPP Atlanta Collegiate6 - AA2-8-4.2418.10329 [31]
378 [35]Mount Zion (Carroll)6 - A1-9-4.2918.54323 [12]
379 [36]Treutlen3 - A4-6-4.390.88408 [41]
380 [52]West Hall7 - AAAA0-10-6.0846.5149 [2]
381 [51]Ringgold6 - AAA0-10-6.0824.90249 [37]
382 [52]Kendrick4 - AAA1-9-6.3423.62264 [42]
383 [51]Dade County7 - AA2-8-7.1010.57385 [50]
384 [53]Long County2 - AAA1-9-7.3833.29171 [10]
385 [52]Jordan5 - AA0-10-7.5419.62309 [27]
386 [37]Greene County7 - A1-9-7.8217.50335 [14]
387 [53]Southeast Whitfield6 - AAAA0-10-8.0617.26341 [52]
388 [38]Seminole County1 - A5-6-8.392.95406 [39]
389 [39]Hawkinsville4 - A2-8-8.9010.67383 [32]
390 [54]Druid Hills4 - AAAA2-8-8.979.57392 [54]
391 [54]Savannah3 - AAA1-9-10.7922.82269 [44]
392 [58]Osborne6 - AAAAAA0-10-12.0537.00136 [32]
393 [53]Oglethorpe County8 - AA2-8-13.109.58391 [54]
394 [48]Lakeside (Atlanta)7 - AAAAAAA0-10-13.2731.32190 [46]
395 [40]Central (Talbotton)4 - A2-8-13.536.13402 [37]
396 [41]Miller County1 - A4-6-13.78-2.90415 [47]
397 [42]Twiggs County7 - A1-9-14.1014.70361 [22]
398 [43]Crawford County4 - A2-8-14.500.39411 [43]
399 [44]Portal3 - A1-9-15.1714.96358 [21]
400 [54]Coosa7 - AA1-9-16.3612.36377 [45]
401 [35]King's Ridge Christian6 - A1-9-18.9214.49362 [32]
402 [55]Towers5 - AAA1-9-19.2528.22226 [25]
403 [55]Josey4 - AA0-10-22.619.39393 [55]
404 [56]Groves3 - AAA0-9-23.1824.66251 [38]
405 [36]Georgia Military College7 - A2-8-25.880.78409 [38]
406 [37]Our Lady of Mercy5 - A0-10-26.5129.78205 [4]
407 [45]Baconton Charter1 - A4-6-26.66-13.22419 [50]
408 [38]Providence Christian8 - A2-8-26.869.76389 [34]
409 [56]Social Circle8 - AA2-8-26.978.32398 [57]
410 [57]Bryan County2 - AA0-9-30.1224.46253 [17]
411 [58]Armuchee7 - AA0-10-31.1813.56365 [42]
412 [55]Clarkston5 - AAAAA†0-10-34.5310.61384 [55]
413 [59]McNair6 - AA0-10-34.9017.61333 [32]
414 [46]Wheeler County3 - A1-9-36.826.04403 [38]
415 [47]Towns County8 - A0-10-39.1923.11266 [4]
416 [48]Calhoun County1 - A2-8-40.85-1.08414 [46]
417 [1]ACE Charter7 - A†3-5-45.75-15.96420 [1]
418 [2]Glascock County7 - A†2-7-55.21-38.05421 [2]
419 [49]Stewart County1 - A1-9-55.98-10.40417 [49]
420 [50]Randolph-Clay1 - A0-10-61.930.50410 [42]
421 [3]Pataula Charter1 - A†3-7-70.47-47.67422 [3]
422 [56]Cross Keys5 - AAAAA†0-10-89.41-11.72418 [56]
† - Plays a non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the Competitive Rating is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Comp Rating Avg Rating
11 - AAAAAAA89.9576.05
23 - AAAAAAA78.9760.70
36 - AAAAAAA78.1349.68
48 - AAAAAAA74.8558.25
51 - AAAAAA71.5760.94
67 - AAAAAAA68.0031.23
78 - AAAAAA67.8943.76
87 - AAAA66.9447.63
91 - AAAAA66.8353.30
106 - AAAAAA66.4640.87
115 - AAAA65.8946.85
125 - A65.6829.62
138 - AAAAA62.4036.26
142 - AAAAA60.9850.79
157 - AAAAA60.8234.72
164 - AAAAA60.0642.36
175 - AAAAAAA58.7841.68
185 - AAA58.1529.91
194 - AAAA57.5411.67
204 - AAAAAAA57.5344.95
218 - AAAA57.0641.93
222 - AAAAAA56.2643.36
232 - A54.7424.26
243 - AAAAA53.7636.35
252 - AAAAAAA53.4138.87
262 - AAAA52.8538.02
278 - AAA51.9730.37
281 - AA51.9538.92
295 - AAAAAA51.9334.56
303 - AA51.8335.78
318 - A50.8218.01
 8-Div A - A51.4425.84
 8-Div B - A35.1810.83
327 - AAAAAA50.2630.51
331 - AAAA50.0031.20
347 - AAA49.4929.01
352 - AAA48.9025.89
364 - AAA48.7721.44
373 - AAA48.3719.38
384 - AAAAAA47.8230.45
393 - AAAA47.4133.32
401 - AAA47.0426.21
416 - A46.0419.99
 6-Div B - A41.9217.69
 6-Div A - A38.4822.44
425 - AA44.8220.72
436 - AA43.8015.42
446 - AAA41.5818.41
458 - AA40.0811.52
462 - AA39.9324.55
473 - AAAAAA38.5327.40
487 - AA36.607.38
491 - A36.09-10.83
506 - AAAAA36.0719.80
513 - A33.6911.88
 3-Div A - A33.3219.37
 3-Div B - A20.753.94
525 - AAAAA32.5916.89
537 - A32.5412.54
 7-Div B - A27.8712.27
 7-Div A - A26.2612.82
544 - A31.749.62
 4-Div A - A30.9013.32
 4-Div B - A20.406.64
556 - AAAA30.6117.13
564 - AA27.798.00

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
10/11Clarke CentralLoganville21 - 3822.3690.3%0.127
10/18Dooly CountyCrawford County19 - 2026.8793.6%0.137
09/12StephensonMount Zion (Jonesboro)9 - 1422.9690.9%0.157
09/27Richmond HillLiberty County23 - 3118.2386.1%0.201
09/20Richmond HillNew Hampstead14 - 2118.0185.8%0.208
11/08DublinWashington County23 - 2716.8784.4%0.237
11/22DarlingtonMount Paran Christian13 - 1616.5984.0%0.246
11/08BufordClarke Central28 - 3116.4983.9%0.247
11/01Carver (Atlanta)Lithia Springs14 - 1517.1284.7%0.249
09/27ThomsonGrovetown12 - 1615.7082.8%0.254
09/27Starr's MillJonesboro14 - 2114.6481.2%0.256
11/08Jones CountyStockbridge14 - 4411.1875.4%0.262
10/03HamptonNorth Clayton7 - 815.5582.6%0.272
09/06Turner CountyTaylor County7 - 1213.7679.8%0.279
10/11Warren CountyGeorgia Military College37 - 3348.7199.2%0.299

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
89.4812/06LowndesNorth Gwinnett - 9.7072.5%
85.4611/01LowndesColquitt County28 - 1713.7079.7%
85.3009/06LowndesParkview38 - 713.8580.0%
85.0208/24North GwinnettColquitt County6 - 174.0059.9%
83.3211/22ParkviewColquitt County40 - 210.9152.3%
83.2911/29North GwinnettMcEachern32 - 135.6363.7%
82.1712/06ParkviewMarietta - 2.8457.1%
81.8811/29LowndesGrayson28 - 2017.0084.5%
81.2909/27Colquitt CountyGrayson31 - 74.3660.7%
81.0210/18MariettaMcEachern12 - 141.8254.5%
80.8009/13MariettaGrayson14 - 280.3050.8%
77.7410/11North GwinnettMill Creek45 - 311.7976.5%
76.4711/29MariettaMill Creek42 - 107.9869.0%
76.3508/30DaculaMill Creek24 - 217.1267.1%
75.9312/06DaculaHarrison - 7.6168.1%

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Loren Maxwell

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