Maxwell Finals preview

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association's 422 teams throughout the 2018 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the player roster or coaching staff.

Championship Odds

Below are the current Maxwell Ratings' playoff projections for each class.

AAAAAAA

Team Seed Rec Rating Draw AvgDepth Champion Odds
Colquitt County #1 (1) 14-0 101.22 80.61 4.89 887,054.40 0.13
Milton #1 (5) 12-2 80.61 101.22 4.11 112,945.60 7.85

AAAAAA

Team Seed Rec Rating Draw AvgDepth Champion Odds
Lee County #1 (1) 14-0 89.43 66.54 4.91 907,961.92 0.10
Northside (Warner Robins) #3 (1) 9-5 66.54 89.43 4.09 92,038.08 9.87

AAAAA

Team Seed Rec Rating Draw AvgDepth Champion Odds
Warner Robins #1 (1) 13-1 83.20 64.58 4.87 865,529.89 0.16
Bainbridge #2 (1) 9-5 64.58 83.20 4.13 134,470.11 6.44

AAAA

Team Seed Rec Rating Draw AvgDepth Champion Odds
Blessed Trinity #1 (7) 14-0 82.79 80.54 4.56 556,013.89 0.80
Cartersville #1 (5) 14-0 80.54 82.79 4.44 443,986.11 1.25

AAA

Team Seed Rec Rating Draw AvgDepth Champion Odds
Cedar Grove #1 (5) 13-1 78.65 72.62 4.65 646,342.36 0.55
Peach County #1 (4) 12-2 72.62 78.65 4.35 353,657.64 1.83

AA

Team Seed Rec Rating Draw AvgDepth Champion Odds
Rockmart #1 (7) 14-0 76.14 64.60 4.76 760,240.77 0.32
Heard County #1 (5) 12-2 64.60 76.14 4.24 239,759.23 3.17

A - Public

Team Seed Rec Rating Draw AvgDepth Champion Odds
Irwin County #1 (2) 13-0 68.84 61.67 4.67 671,946.05 0.49
Clinch County #6 (2) 12-1 61.67 68.84 4.33 328,053.95 2.05

A - Private

Team Seed Rec Rating Draw AvgDepth Champion Odds
Eagle's Landing Christian #3 (5) 12-1 60.58 56.95 4.59 589,766.45 0.70
Athens Academy #1 (8) 13-0 56.95 60.58 4.41 410,233.55 1.44

Projected margins

Each game is listed showing the game rate, favorite, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, the projected margin, and the opponent.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50 percent of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Dec 11

Game Rate Class Team Pct Proj Team Class
74.74AAACedar Grove64.6%6Peach CountyAAA
68.14AAAAAALee County90.8%23Northside (Warner Robins)AAAAAA
66.69AAAAAWarner Robins86.6%19BainbridgeAAAAA
64.00A - PublicIrwin County67.2%7Clinch CountyA - Public

Dec 12

Game Rate Class Team Pct Proj Team Class
82.48AAAAAAAColquitt County88.7%21MiltonAAAAAAA
81.54AAAABlessed Trinity55.6%3CartersvilleAAAA
67.25AARockmart76.0%12Heard CountyAA
58.44A - PrivateEagle's Landing Christian59.0%4Athens AcademyA - Private

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 0.06%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 2,124 of 2,288 total games including 0 tie(s) (92.69%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.92 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Home Advantage: 1.12

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Colquitt County14-0101.221Lee County14-089.43
2Parkview11-183.982Northside (Warner Robins)9-566.54
3Archer11-383.873Creekview12-163.30
4Grayson10-381.704Valdosta8-562.75
5Milton12-280.615Dacula11-362.67
6North Gwinnett10-379.546Allatoona8-457.10
7Lowndes10-478.667Sequoyah10-355.15
8Hillgrove12-177.588Coffee9-454.14
9Tift County8-576.709Lanier10-454.09
10Walton10-274.7110Harrison9-354.01
11McEachern8-473.0911Glynn Academy7-551.20
12Camden County7-471.6912Johns Creek9-250.22
13Roswell9-269.2513Habersham Central7-546.41
14Mill Creek8-468.4014Creekside8-445.89
15Marietta5-667.3115Centennial7-443.48
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Warner Robins13-183.201Blessed Trinity14-082.79
2Rome13-178.022Cartersville14-080.54
3Dutchtown12-170.243Mary Persons12-176.84
4Buford10-367.874Marist11-376.21
5Bainbridge9-564.585St. Pius X10-272.47
6Stockbridge12-264.396Troup12-270.56
7Jones County8-361.427Pickens11-156.22
8Veterans8-359.138North Oconee9-355.89
9Wayne County11-158.139Cairo10-355.28
10Kell9-356.1610Eastside12-154.77
11Ware County8-454.5111Flowery Branch8-354.66
12Carrollton10-353.9812Ridgeland8-453.95
13Clarke Central8-551.9913Baldwin7-653.84
14Cedar Shoals8-450.8114Cedartown5-653.72
15Locust Grove5-648.5615Sandy Creek7-453.54
AAA AA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Cedar Grove13-178.651Rockmart14-076.14
2Peach County12-272.622Callaway11-364.86
3Monroe Area12-164.703Heard County12-264.60
4Pierce County13-164.054Dublin11-261.97
5Calhoun13-163.195Brooks County9-357.99
6Westminster (Atlanta)8-560.616Bremen9-357.58
7Greater Atlanta Christian9-358.087Fitzgerald10-457.56
8Benedictine11-257.928Washington County10-357.28
9Pace Academy6-554.459Hapeville Charter10-256.92
10Dawson County10-253.8310Dodge County10-255.43
11Lovett6-652.8111Rabun County11-253.56
12North Hall9-350.0312Thomasville7-551.54
13Westside (Macon)8-448.8113Jefferson County10-350.07
14Jefferson8-348.0814Swainsboro9-348.75
15Crisp County7-447.8515Vidalia9-246.06
A - Public A - Private
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Irwin County13-068.841Eagle's Landing Christian12-160.58
2Clinch County12-161.672Athens Academy13-056.95
3Pelham12-152.203Prince Avenue Christian11-251.21
4Marion County12-149.294Savannah Christian11-246.48
5Commerce10-344.855Calvary Day10-241.16
6Mount Zion (Carroll)10-241.576George Walton Academy8-339.71
7Charlton County8-438.857Hebron Christian Academy6-636.86
8Schley County9-338.548North Cobb Christian10-235.94
9Mitchell County8-337.849Wesleyan7-534.35
10Emanuel County Institute7-533.2510Fellowship Christian10-233.43
11Greene County9-328.9211Mount Vernon Presbyterian8-432.82
12Dooly County7-527.9412Darlington9-332.57
13Turner County6-527.0913Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)8-432.04
14Trion8-427.0214Riverside Military Academy6-629.25
15Wilcox County5-626.0415Mount Paran Christian7-426.56

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

Rank Team Region Rec Rating SchStr Rank
1 [1]Colquitt County1 - AAAAAAA14-0101.2270.561 [1]
2 [1]Lee County1 - AAAAAA14-089.4345.4881 [10]
3 [2]Parkview7 - AAAAAAA11-183.9857.1917 [13]
4 [3]Archer8 - AAAAAAA11-383.8762.925 [5]
5 [1]Warner Robins1 - AAAAA13-183.2057.2516 [2]
6 [1]Blessed Trinity7 - AAAA14-082.7948.7556 [9]
7 [4]Grayson8 - AAAAAAA10-381.7055.5919 [14]
8 [5]Milton5 - AAAAAAA12-280.6158.8013 [11]
9 [2]Cartersville5 - AAAA14-080.5447.2867 [14]
10 [6]North Gwinnett6 - AAAAAAA10-379.5454.7526 [20]
11 [7]Lowndes1 - AAAAAAA10-478.6665.353 [3]
12 [1]Cedar Grove5 - AAA13-178.6542.40111 [5]
13 [2]Rome7 - AAAAA13-178.0241.32117 [20]
14 [8]Hillgrove3 - AAAAAAA12-177.5855.4520 [15]
15 [3]Mary Persons2 - AAAA12-176.8445.3784 [18]
16 [9]Tift County1 - AAAAAAA8-576.7068.042 [2]
17 [4]Marist7 - AAAA11-376.2154.6927 [1]
18 [1]Rockmart7 - AA14-076.1428.97233 [21]
19 [10]Walton4 - AAAAAAA10-274.7155.4021 [16]
20 [11]McEachern3 - AAAAAAA8-473.0962.116 [6]
21 [2]Peach County4 - AAA12-272.6244.4995 [4]
22 [5]St. Pius X8 - AAAA10-272.4750.7549 [7]
23 [12]Camden County1 - AAAAAAA7-471.6961.768 [8]
24 [6]Troup5 - AAAA12-270.5652.1437 [4]
25 [3]Dutchtown4 - AAAAA12-170.2443.72103 [17]
26 [13]Roswell4 - AAAAAAA9-269.2551.7240 [28]
27 [1]Irwin County2 - A13-068.8432.21204 [3]
28 [14]Mill Creek6 - AAAAAAA8-468.4059.589 [9]
29 [4]Buford8 - AAAAA10-367.8742.30112 [18]
30 [15]Marietta3 - AAAAAAA5-667.3163.194 [4]
31 [2]Northside (Warner Robins)1 - AAAAAA9-566.5455.3122 [3]
32 [16]Westlake2 - AAAAAAA9-365.5852.0338 [26]
33 [2]Callaway5 - AA11-364.8638.45142 [12]
34 [3]Monroe Area8 - AAA12-164.7038.26144 [7]
35 [3]Heard County5 - AA12-264.6037.44150 [13]
36 [5]Bainbridge1 - AAAAA9-564.5857.6514 [1]
37 [6]Stockbridge4 - AAAAA12-264.3940.39126 [24]
38 [4]Pierce County2 - AAA13-164.0523.66296 [46]
39 [17]Norcross7 - AAAAAAA7-563.5757.5015 [12]
40 [3]Creekview6 - AAAAAA12-163.3039.32134 [22]
41 [5]Calhoun6 - AAA13-163.1925.58274 [38]
42 [4]Valdosta1 - AAAAAA8-562.7558.8012 [2]
43 [5]Dacula8 - AAAAAA11-362.6746.2676 [9]
44 [4]Dublin3 - AA11-261.9739.47133 [8]
45 [2]Clinch County2 - A12-161.6734.69187 [1]
46 [7]Jones County4 - AAAAA8-361.4249.2353 [6]
47 [6]Westminster (Atlanta)5 - AAA8-560.6153.3832 [1]
48 [1]Eagle's Landing Christian5 - A12-160.5826.72257 [7]
49 [18]West Forsyth5 - AAAAAAA6-660.1953.1034 [24]
50 [19]Brookwood7 - AAAAAAA7-459.5947.7163 [37]
51 [20]North Paulding3 - AAAAAAA7-459.4150.8747 [33]
52 [8]Veterans1 - AAAAA8-359.1350.3651 [5]
53 [9]Wayne County2 - AAAAA11-158.1339.87131 [27]
54 [7]Greater Atlanta Christian7 - AAA9-358.0836.01169 [17]
55 [5]Brooks County1 - AA9-357.9946.6470 [2]
56 [8]Benedictine3 - AAA11-257.9227.56247 [33]
57 [21]Mountain View6 - AAAAAAA7-457.7351.2644 [30]
58 [6]Bremen5 - AA9-357.5830.66216 [19]
59 [7]Fitzgerald1 - AA10-457.5645.1586 [4]
60 [22]North Cobb3 - AAAAAAA6-457.5254.0430 [22]
61 [8]Washington County3 - AA10-357.2845.3085 [3]
62 [6]Allatoona6 - AAAAAA8-457.1046.7169 [7]
63 [2]Athens Academy8 - A13-056.9533.42197 [1]
64 [9]Hapeville Charter6 - AA10-256.9221.60323 [37]
65 [7]Pickens6 - AAAA11-156.2220.64334 [50]
66 [10]Kell7 - AAAAA9-356.1638.77139 [29]
67 [8]North Oconee8 - AAAA9-355.8941.05118 [26]
68 [10]Dodge County3 - AA10-255.4341.05119 [7]
69 [9]Cairo1 - AAAA10-355.2834.96181 [33]
70 [7]Sequoyah6 - AAAAAA10-355.1541.75116 [20]
71 [10]Eastside4 - AAAA12-154.7726.54259 [46]
72 [11]Flowery Branch7 - AAAA8-354.6640.70123 [27]
73 [11]Ware County2 - AAAAA8-454.5147.0268 [8]
74 [9]Pace Academy5 - AAA6-554.4546.6071 [3]
75 [8]Coffee1 - AAAAAA9-454.1444.2498 [14]
76 [9]Lanier8 - AAAAAA10-454.0944.8889 [12]
77 [10]Harrison6 - AAAAAA9-354.0140.13129 [21]
78 [12]Carrollton7 - AAAAA10-353.9839.94130 [26]
79 [12]Ridgeland6 - AAAA8-453.9537.27153 [30]
80 [13]Baldwin3 - AAAA7-653.8451.6442 [5]
81 [10]Dawson County7 - AAA10-253.8328.46238 [30]
82 [14]Cedartown5 - AAAA5-653.7251.5443 [6]
83 [11]Rabun County8 - AA11-253.5626.55258 [23]
84 [15]Sandy Creek5 - AAAA7-453.5444.6893 [20]
85 [23]East Coweta2 - AAAAAAA4-853.3458.9511 [10]
86 [11]Lovett5 - AAA6-652.8148.3360 [2]
87 [16]Upson-Lee2 - AAAA7-452.7548.5159 [11]
88 [3]Pelham1 - A12-152.2014.55381 [31]
89 [13]Clarke Central8 - AAAAA8-551.9946.4474 [10]
90 [24]Newnan2 - AAAAAAA6-551.9348.6058 [36]
91 [17]Burke County3 - AAAA8-451.6942.61109 [24]
92 [12]Thomasville1 - AA7-551.5449.0854 [1]
93 [3]Prince Avenue Christian8 - A11-251.2129.49226 [4]
94 [11]Glynn Academy2 - AAAAAA7-551.2043.00108 [18]
95 [14]Cedar Shoals8 - AAAAA8-450.8140.65124 [22]
96 [25]South Forsyth5 - AAAAAAA5-650.6854.9924 [18]
97 [12]Johns Creek7 - AAAAAA9-250.2228.07241 [50]
98 [13]Jefferson County4 - AA10-350.0729.90225 [20]
99 [12]North Hall7 - AAA9-350.0326.17265 [37]
100 [18]Oconee County8 - AAAA6-549.5547.4165 [13]
101 [4]Marion County4 - A12-149.2923.88293 [12]
102 [13]Westside (Macon)4 - AAA8-448.8136.96157 [12]
103 [26]Cherokee4 - AAAAAAA5-648.7854.8825 [19]
104 [14]Swainsboro2 - AA9-348.7535.13179 [16]
105 [15]Locust Grove4 - AAAAA5-648.5654.3728 [4]
106 [27]Collins Hill6 - AAAAAAA3-848.4261.907 [7]
107 [19]Howard2 - AAAA6-548.1045.7180 [16]
108 [14]Jefferson8 - AAA8-348.0835.20178 [20]
109 [15]Crisp County1 - AAA7-447.8540.78122 [6]
110 [16]East Paulding7 - AAAAA7-547.4144.2199 [16]
111 [28]Etowah4 - AAAAAAA4-746.9855.1023 [17]
112 [29]Central Gwinnett7 - AAAAAAA4-746.9553.4331 [23]
113 [4]Savannah Christian3 - A11-246.4825.67270 [10]
114 [17]Thomas County Central1 - AAAAA5-546.4646.4473 [10]
115 [13]Habersham Central8 - AAAAAA7-546.4143.15106 [17]
116 [20]Chapel Hill5 - AAAA6-446.3843.12107 [23]
117 [30]Wheeler2 - AAAAAAA6-446.3743.85101 [41]
118 [31]Pebblebrook2 - AAAAAAA4-746.2851.0145 [31]
119 [21]Stephens County8 - AAAA5-646.2849.8752 [8]
120 [15]Vidalia2 - AA9-246.0626.36262 [25]
121 [14]Creekside5 - AAAAAA8-445.8937.37151 [26]
122 [22]Perry2 - AAAA6-545.6145.4682 [17]
123 [23]Thomson3 - AAAA5-745.0548.6357 [10]
124 [5]Commerce8 - A10-344.8525.62273 [10]
125 [32]Kennesaw Mountain3 - AAAAAAA4-644.5851.6741 [29]
126 [24]West Laurens2 - AAAA5-544.5743.37105 [22]
127 [33]Forsyth Central5 - AAAAAAA7-444.1935.69172 [46]
128 [18]Banneker6 - AAAAA9-243.9622.33315 [48]
129 [16]Liberty County2 - AAA8-443.7334.75183 [21]
130 [25]Carver (Columbus)1 - AAAA9-243.7230.57217 [38]
131 [15]Centennial7 - AAAAAA7-443.4834.88182 [36]
132 [17]Jackson4 - AAA7-543.3938.15147 [9]
133 [19]Harris County1 - AAAAA3-843.0957.0418 [3]
134 [18]Appling County2 - AAA6-543.0936.96156 [12]
135 [34]Woodstock4 - AAAAAAA3-742.9051.9239 [27]
136 [16]Dalton6 - AAAAAA6-442.8435.51176 [34]
137 [20]Griffin3 - AAAAA8-442.8332.27203 [35]
138 [35]Newton8 - AAAAAAA4-742.2850.6050 [35]
139 [17]Richmond Hill2 - AAAAAA5-642.0445.4283 [11]
140 [18]Douglas County5 - AAAAAA8-341.9433.81194 [40]
141 [26]Woodward Academy4 - AAAA7-541.9130.45218 [39]
142 [19]Effingham County2 - AAAAAA7-541.8538.23145 [24]
143 [27]Richmond Academy3 - AAAA7-441.6837.46149 [29]
144 [20]Mays5 - AAAAAA6-541.6135.67173 [32]
145 [6]Mount Zion (Carroll)6 - A10-241.5722.35314 [16]
146 [21]Loganville8 - AAAAA5-741.5548.8855 [7]
147 [21]Bradwell Institute2 - AAAAAA5-741.4943.91100 [15]
148 [5]Calvary Day3 - A10-241.1613.85385 [30]
149 [36]South Gwinnett8 - AAAAAAA4-740.8350.9546 [32]
150 [16]Early County1 - AA6-540.5643.82102 [5]
151 [17]Douglass6 - AA10-240.1811.24402 [58]
152 [22]Stephenson4 - AAAAAA9-240.1422.80308 [57]
153 [6]George Walton Academy8 - A8-339.7123.41297 [12]
154 [22]Statesboro2 - AAAAA4-739.7044.9988 [13]
155 [37]North Forsyth5 - AAAAAAA3-739.6345.7979 [38]
156 [38]Meadowcreek7 - AAAAAAA6-439.4134.74184 [47]
157 [19]Jenkins3 - AAA9-439.2326.35263 [36]
158 [23]New Hampstead2 - AAAAA5-639.0540.88121 [21]
159 [7]Charlton County2 - A8-438.8528.93234 [5]
160 [18]Union County8 - AA9-238.7912.25396 [57]
161 [24]Southwest DeKalb5 - AAAAA10-138.5920.06339 [52]
162 [8]Schley County4 - A9-338.5419.90340 [19]
163 [25]Union Grove4 - AAAAA6-438.5032.95202 [34]
164 [26]Riverwood6 - AAAAA8-338.0720.87329 [49]
165 [19]Elbert County8 - AA7-438.0621.47324 [38]
166 [9]Mitchell County1 - A8-337.8412.77394 [35]
167 [28]Columbus1 - AAAA7-537.7433.82193 [35]
168 [23]Houston County1 - AAAAAA2-837.7359.4510 [1]
169 [24]Alpharetta7 - AAAAAA6-537.7135.54175 [33]
170 [25]Winder-Barrow8 - AAAAAA2-837.3648.1261 [4]
171 [27]Starr's Mill3 - AAAAA7-437.3528.06243 [40]
172 [26]Tucker4 - AAAAAA7-437.1229.12230 [47]
173 [7]Hebron Christian Academy8 - A6-636.8633.11200 [2]
174 [29]Denmark7 - AAAA5-536.2440.23128 [28]
175 [8]North Cobb Christian6 - A10-235.9421.79322 [17]
176 [27]Sprayberry6 - AAAAAA3-735.7044.3597 [13]
177 [30]White County7 - AAAA3-835.6947.6664 [12]
178 [28]Northgate5 - AAAAAA6-535.6936.34164 [31]
179 [20]Chattooga7 - AA9-335.5620.80330 [42]
180 [20]Pike County4 - AAA8-435.5219.46345 [53]
181 [29]Grovetown3 - AAAAAA6-535.5033.84192 [39]
182 [21]Southeast Bulloch3 - AAA9-235.3319.05348 [54]
183 [30]Gainesville8 - AAAAAA2-935.1847.9262 [5]
184 [39]Lambert5 - AAAAAAA3-735.1544.7692 [40]
185 [28]Villa Rica7 - AAAAA5-534.8936.06168 [30]
186 [31]West Hall7 - AAAA3-734.6946.0778 [15]
187 [9]Wesleyan5 - A7-534.3530.30220 [3]
188 [31]Apalachee8 - AAAAAA3-734.2843.50104 [16]
189 [40]Campbell2 - AAAAAAA1-933.9954.1729 [21]
190 [32]Salem4 - AAAA7-433.7924.85282 [47]
191 [21]Bleckley County3 - AA4-633.7239.06136 [9]
192 [10]Fellowship Christian6 - A10-233.4316.88364 [22]
193 [10]Emanuel County Institute3 - A7-533.2521.37326 [17]
194 [29]Hiram7 - AAAAA4-633.2140.54125 [23]
195 [22]Morgan County8 - AAA5-633.0436.22165 [15]
196 [22]Hephzibah4 - AA8-332.8719.89341 [45]
197 [11]Mount Vernon Presbyterian5 - A8-432.8222.92307 [15]
198 [32]Brunswick2 - AAAAAA3-732.7641.81114 [19]
199 [12]Darlington6 - A9-332.5724.37289 [11]
200 [23]Berrien1 - AA5-532.5536.65160 [14]
201 [33]LaGrange5 - AAAA2-832.0552.2035 [3]
202 [13]Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)5 - A8-432.0423.22300 [13]
203 [33]Hughes5 - AAAAAA4-631.8737.26154 [28]
204 [30]Walnut Grove8 - AAAAA2-831.7446.2775 [11]
205 [34]Westover1 - AAAA4-531.5231.23213 [37]
206 [35]Spalding2 - AAAA3-731.3241.84113 [25]
207 [24]Northeast3 - AA4-731.1538.74140 [11]
208 [23]Hart County8 - AAA4-731.0738.18146 [8]
209 [41]Lassiter4 - AAAAAAA1-931.0050.8248 [34]
210 [24]Haralson County6 - AAA8-330.9518.41351 [55]
211 [34]Pope7 - AAAAAA5-630.9033.86191 [38]
212 [25]Washington6 - AA7-430.8914.97377 [54]
213 [36]Hardaway1 - AAAA5-530.8829.95222 [40]
214 [35]Greenbrier3 - AAAAAA3-830.6438.42143 [23]
215 [36]Evans3 - AAAAAA3-830.6337.77148 [25]
216 [26]Jeff Davis2 - AA7-430.5323.39298 [32]
217 [25]Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe6 - AAA7-430.4321.91320 [51]
218 [31]Arabia Mountain5 - AAAAA6-529.5825.66272 [44]
219 [37]Madison County8 - AAAA2-829.3144.6494 [21]
220 [37]Alexander5 - AAAAAA3-729.3036.67158 [29]
221 [14]Riverside Military Academy8 - A6-629.2527.29250 [6]
222 [38]Lakeside (Evans)3 - AAAAAA5-529.0430.24221 [46]
223 [27]Harlem4 - AA7-428.9919.89342 [45]
224 [26]Central (Macon)4 - AAA3-728.9936.09167 [16]
225 [11]Greene County7 - A9-328.9215.40375 [27]
226 [27]Windsor Forest3 - AAA6-528.8122.14319 [50]
227 [28]North Murray6 - AAA6-528.6725.46276 [39]
228 [39]Lovejoy4 - AAAAAA6-528.4528.07240 [50]
229 [32]Eagle's Landing4 - AAAAA2-828.4444.4196 [15]
230 [28]Southwest3 - AA3-728.3542.46110 [6]
231 [42]Duluth6 - AAAAAAA4-628.3538.67141 [45]
232 [38]Central (Carrollton)5 - AAAA2-828.3353.3433 [2]
233 [43]Peachtree Ridge6 - AAAAAAA1-928.2952.1836 [25]
234 [33]Woodland (Stockbridge)4 - AAAAA3-728.1639.76132 [28]
235 [12]Dooly County4 - A7-527.9423.35299 [13]
236 [40]South Cobb6 - AAAAAA2-827.8747.3566 [6]
237 [34]Riverdale3 - AAAAA7-427.7823.03304 [46]
238 [44]Rockdale County8 - AAAAAAA3-727.4439.11135 [43]
239 [13]Turner County2 - A6-527.0925.67271 [9]
240 [14]Trion6 - A8-427.0219.25347 [20]
241 [35]Jonesboro3 - AAAAA5-626.9732.10206 [36]
242 [39]Northside (Columbus)1 - AAAA4-626.8632.14205 [36]
243 [29]Ringgold6 - AAA5-626.8427.57246 [32]
244 [15]Mount Paran Christian6 - A7-426.5616.52368 [23]
245 [41]Heritage (Conyers)3 - AAAAAA3-726.4733.03201 [43]
246 [42]Northview7 - AAAAAA5-526.4227.07254 [51]
247 [30]Franklin County8 - AAA3-726.2736.46161 [13]
248 [40]Americus-Sumter1 - AAAA3-726.1736.65159 [31]
249 [36]Maynard Jackson6 - AAAAA6-526.1120.59336 [51]
250 [15]Wilcox County2 - A5-626.0424.73283 [11]
251 [16]Holy Innocents5 - A6-625.9622.59309 [16]
252 [31]Cook1 - AAA3-825.9437.24155 [10]
253 [17]Christian Heritage6 - A7-425.6420.64333 [19]
254 [29]Metter2 - AA6-425.6222.26317 [34]
255 [37]Woodland (Cartersville)7 - AAAAA4-625.3734.74185 [31]
256 [30]Pepperell7 - AA6-525.3423.68295 [31]
257 [38]South Effingham2 - AAAAA2-825.2941.76115 [19]
258 [39]Carver (Atlanta)6 - AAAAA5-625.2128.65237 [38]
259 [16]Chattahoochee County1 - A8-424.9713.68387 [32]
260 [31]Toombs County2 - AA5-624.9127.23252 [22]
261 [18]Brookstone4 - A7-524.7913.05393 [32]
262 [45]Shiloh8 - AAAAAAA2-824.7438.96138 [44]
263 [32]Screven County4 - AA6-524.6924.09292 [30]
264 [41]Heritage (Ringgold)6 - AAAA5-624.6029.24227 [42]
265 [43]Mundy's Mill4 - AAAAAA6-524.5323.78294 [55]
266 [17]Miller County1 - A7-423.7113.08392 [34]
267 [18]Telfair County2 - A4-623.4426.54260 [8]
268 [40]Johnson (Gainesville)8 - AAAAA4-623.2431.63212 [37]
269 [33]Spencer5 - AA3-822.9339.05137 [10]
270 [44]South Paulding5 - AAAAAA2-822.7935.28177 [35]
271 [42]Northwest Whitfield6 - AAAA6-522.7618.61350 [51]
272 [19]Mount de Sales7 - A9-222.7110.62405 [36]
273 [19]Montgomery County3 - A8-422.4513.33391 [33]
274 [45]Cambridge7 - AAAAAA3-722.3933.61196 [41]
275 [46]Discovery6 - AAAAAAA1-922.1444.9987 [39]
276 [46]North Atlanta7 - AAAAAA5-521.9823.14301 [56]
277 [20]Aquinas7 - A9-321.8611.52401 [34]
278 [43]Cross Creek3 - AAAA3-721.2634.25189 [34]
279 [41]Ola4 - AAAAA1-921.2046.1777 [12]
280 [20]Manchester4 - A6-521.0416.05371 [26]
281 [42]Paulding County7 - AAAAA1-920.5544.8090 [14]
282 [47]Alcovy3 - AAAAAA2-820.4436.45162 [30]
283 [34]Butler4 - AA5-520.3919.76344 [46]
284 [21]Whitefield Academy6 - A6-420.2314.31383 [28]
285 [21]Macon County4 - A5-620.0120.31338 [18]
286 [32]Monroe1 - AAA5-619.9727.25251 [34]
287 [44]Hampton4 - AAAA4-619.9024.51286 [48]
288 [45]Henry County4 - AAAA4-719.6727.32249 [44]
289 [46]Shaw1 - AAAA3-719.0329.93223 [41]
290 [33]Adairsville6 - AAA4-618.8724.50287 [43]
291 [22]Savannah Country Day3 - A7-418.7910.81404 [35]
292 [43]Lithonia5 - AAAAA6-518.7917.96354 [53]
293 [35]South Atlanta6 - AA6-518.5613.40390 [56]
294 [36]Coosa7 - AA4-718.5025.43277 [27]
295 [48]Tri-Cities5 - AAAAAA1-918.5034.70186 [37]
296 [23]Tattnall Square7 - A6-518.4314.05384 [29]
297 [22]Claxton3 - A6-518.4118.85349 [21]
298 [44]Cass7 - AAAAA1-918.3240.26127 [25]
299 [49]New Manchester5 - AAAAAA2-817.9233.11199 [42]
300 [37]Bacon County2 - AA2-817.6035.11180 [17]
301 [34]Jackson County8 - AAA3-717.5729.92224 [26]
302 [50]Morrow4 - AAAAAA3-717.3629.01232 [48]
303 [23]Taylor County4 - A5-617.1918.39352 [22]
304 [45]Decatur6 - AAAAA4-616.7520.64332 [50]
305 [51]Drew4 - AAAAAA3-716.6826.22264 [52]
306 [38]Monticello8 - AA5-616.2722.21318 [35]
307 [35]Sonoraville6 - AAA4-615.6322.35313 [49]
308 [24]Hancock Central7 - A6-515.5112.05399 [38]
309 [36]Beach3 - AAA4-615.5028.19239 [31]
310 [47]LaFayette6 - AAAA5-515.4717.04363 [53]
311 [37]Islands3 - AAA3-715.4324.28290 [44]
312 [25]Jenkins County3 - A5-515.3212.55395 [36]
313 [26]Atkinson County2 - A3-715.2728.88235 [6]
314 [38]Tattnall County2 - AAA2-914.7036.00170 [18]
315 [46]McIntosh3 - AAAAA3-714.6924.61284 [45]
316 [24]St. Francis6 - A5-513.4812.20397 [33]
317 [39]Glenn Hills4 - AA3-713.4221.91321 [36]
318 [52]Forest Park4 - AAAAAA3-713.1319.87343 [58]
319 [40]Laney4 - AA4-612.9821.08328 [41]
320 [25]Stratford Academy7 - A5-612.9115.96372 [24]
321 [48]Luella4 - AAAA3-712.5326.97255 [45]
322 [47]Miller Grove5 - AAAAA3-812.4627.76245 [41]
323 [48]North Springs6 - AAAAA3-712.3322.42311 [47]
324 [49]Columbia5 - AAAAA2-812.2828.07242 [39]
325 [53]Mount Zion (Jonesboro)4 - AAAAAA2-812.2225.04279 [54]
326 [26]Strong Rock Christian5 - A3-712.0428.04244 [5]
327 [54]Dunwoody7 - AAAAAA2-811.3130.35219 [45]
328 [39]Fannin County7 - AAA4-711.2222.40312 [48]
329 [55]M.L. King4 - AAAAAA1-911.0725.73267 [53]
330 [27]Pinecrest Academy6 - A4-611.0314.58380 [26]
331 [40]Worth County1 - AAA1-910.6136.44163 [14]
332 [56]River Ridge6 - AAAAAA1-910.4546.6072 [8]
333 [41]Lamar County5 - AA4-610.4426.36261 [25]
334 [42]Banks County8 - AA4-610.0116.19370 [52]
335 [27]Seminole County1 - A5-69.9817.55360 [23]
336 [41]Brantley County2 - AAA2-89.5129.13229 [27]
337 [50]Whitewater3 - AAAAA1-99.2033.68195 [33]
338 [28]Johnson County3 - A6-48.593.42416 [48]
339 [57]Chattahoochee7 - AAAAAA0-108.5131.78210 [44]
340 [49]Chestatee7 - AAAA1-97.9144.7991 [19]
341 [28]Mount Pisgah Christian6 - A3-77.6419.28346 [20]
342 [42]East Hall7 - AAA3-76.8730.91214 [24]
343 [29]Washington-Wilkes7 - A3-76.4114.93378 [29]
344 [43]B.E.S.T. Academy6 - AA3-76.2331.79209 [18]
345 [50]Southeast Whitfield6 - AAAA3-76.0722.29316 [49]
346 [29]First Presbyterian7 - A3-75.7615.86373 [25]
347 [30]Providence Christian8 - A4-65.2617.80357 [21]
348 [30]Warren County7 - A5-55.062.85417 [49]
349 [31]Lincoln County7 - A4-64.808.89408 [43]
350 [44]Gordon Central7 - AA3-74.7516.56367 [51]
351 [32]Bowdon6 - A1-94.6126.80256 [7]
352 [51]Dougherty1 - AAAA0-84.5836.16166 [32]
353 [51]Grady6 - AAAAA1-94.4925.72268 [43]
354 [45]Putnam County8 - AA3-73.9022.47310 [33]
355 [33]Gordon Lee6 - A2-83.7123.00305 [14]
356 [52]Fayette County3 - AAAAA0-103.6427.49248 [42]
357 [34]Terrell County1 - A4-63.2511.70400 [39]
358 [47]Lakeside (Atlanta)7 - AAAAAAA1-93.2040.93120 [42]
359 [31]Athens Christian8 - A3-72.6023.10302 [14]
360 [46]Model7 - AA2-82.0818.31353 [47]
361 [35]Towns County8 - A3-71.9833.40198 [2]
362 [47]East Laurens3 - AA1-91.4635.58174 [15]
363 [36]McIntosh County Academy3 - A1-91.1822.95306 [15]
364 [43]Coahulla Creek6 - AAA1-90.3223.05303 [47]
365 [48]Therrell6 - AA2-8-0.2020.62335 [43]
366 [37]Calhoun County1 - A3-7-0.3614.61379 [30]
367 [52]North Clayton4 - AAAA1-9-0.5429.23228 [43]
368 [44]Johnson (Savannah)3 - AAA2-8-0.6124.94281 [41]
369 [38]Hawkinsville4 - A4-6-0.7012.12398 [37]
370 [49]Westside (Augusta)4 - AA1-9-0.7624.43288 [29]
371 [45]Lumpkin County7 - AAA3-7-0.9816.70366 [56]
372 [50]Bryan County2 - AA1-8-1.0724.99280 [28]
373 [32]Landmark Christian5 - A2-8-1.4820.66331 [18]
374 [48]Berkmar7 - AAAAAAA3-7-2.1231.85208 [48]
375 [33]King's Ridge Christian6 - A1-9-2.2914.36382 [27]
376 [34]Lakeview Academy8 - A1-9-2.7725.76266 [8]
377 [51]Social Circle8 - AA4-6-2.995.55415 [59]
378 [52]Armuchee7 - AA2-8-3.6417.91355 [48]
379 [53]Lithia Springs6 - AAAAA2-8-3.9917.21362 [54]
380 [53]McNair6 - AA3-7-4.3115.54374 [53]
381 [54]Temple5 - AA1-9-4.7125.55275 [26]
382 [55]KIPP Atlanta Collegiate6 - AA2-8-5.2217.77359 [50]
383 [56]Jordan5 - AA2-8-5.5521.21327 [40]
384 [39]Greenville4 - A3-7-5.956.86411 [46]
385 [40]Lanier County2 - A0-10-6.2531.70211 [4]
386 [41]Portal3 - A2-8-6.7415.09376 [28]
387 [35]Pacelli4 - A4-6-7.026.37413 [37]
388 [46]Stone Mountain5 - AAA2-8-7.7034.67188 [22]
389 [47]Long County2 - AAA0-10-8.4335.88171 [19]
390 [42]Wilkinson County7 - A1-9-8.5617.34361 [24]
391 [36]Walker6 - A1-9-9.2113.61389 [31]
392 [57]Josey4 - AA0-10-9.4921.42325 [39]
393 [58]Dade County7 - AA1-9-9.7317.80358 [49]
394 [48]Groves3 - AAA1-9-9.9529.03231 [28]
395 [53]Druid Hills4 - AAAA2-8-11.8716.86365 [54]
396 [49]Cherokee Bluff7 - AAA0-10-12.8831.96207 [23]
397 [43]Baconton Charter1 - A3-7-13.077.33410 [45]
398 [50]Redan5 - AAA1-9-14.2628.71236 [29]
399 [54]Chamblee5 - AAAAA0-10-14.5033.99190 [32]
400 [51]Kendrick4 - AAA1-9-14.6727.18253 [35]
401 [37]Georgia Military College7 - A3-7-14.76-0.56418 [38]
402 [52]Murray County6 - AAA0-10-15.2120.46337 [52]
403 [58]Osborne6 - AAAAAA0-10-15.4537.30152 [27]
404 [54]Gilmer6 - AAAA0-10-16.3317.83356 [52]
405 [44]Treutlen3 - A3-7-16.806.82412 [47]
406 [38]Our Lady of Mercy5 - A0-10-17.0925.68269 [9]
407 [53]East Jackson8 - AAA1-9-17.9724.55285 [42]
408 [54]Savannah3 - AAA0-10-17.9824.18291 [45]
409 [55]Rutland4 - AAA0-10-19.8830.72215 [25]
410 [45]Crawford County4 - A3-7-20.03-1.79419 [50]
411 [46]Stewart County1 - A2-8-20.367.67409 [44]
412 [59]Oglethorpe County8 - AA0-10-23.9213.63388 [55]
413 [56]Towers5 - AAA0-10-25.6125.22278 [40]
414 [55]Clarkston5 - AAAAA†0-10-30.3513.71386 [55]
415 [47]Twiggs County7 - A0-10-32.529.65406 [41]
416 [48]Wheeler County3 - A1-9-34.4910.82403 [40]
417 [1]ACE Charter7 - A†4-6-35.81-17.93420 [1]
418 [49]Central (Talbotton)4 - A0-10-40.448.97407 [42]
419 [50]Randolph-Clay1 - A0-10-45.8816.43369 [25]
420 [2]Pataula Charter1 - A†2-7-57.11-38.98422 [3]
421 [3]Glascock County7 - A†1-8-1-65.03-25.54421 [2]
422 [56]Cross Keys5 - AAAAA†0-10-87.495.77414 [56]
† - Plays a non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the Competitive Rating is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Comp Rating Avg Rating
11 - AAAAAAA93.7281.02
21 - AAAAAA79.6861.57
38 - AAAAAAA78.3245.64
43 - AAAAAAA76.6463.55
57 - AAAA75.1045.26
61 - AAAAA74.8258.41
75 - AAAA73.0351.63
87 - AAAAAAA72.8146.16
96 - AAAAAAA71.4946.80
105 - AAAAAAA70.1250.11
114 - AAAAAAA69.7151.48
125 - AAA68.7039.39
134 - AAAAA66.6944.74
142 - AAAA66.6348.70
157 - AAAAA66.0339.40
168 - AAAA65.3550.62
175 - AA62.8127.90
182 - AAAAAAA62.2849.55
196 - AAAAAA61.7841.03
208 - AAAAA61.0444.45
212 - A60.2430.27
224 - AAA60.1233.31
233 - AA59.6339.72
241 - AA59.5648.39
258 - AAAAAA58.6844.56
267 - AA57.3814.09
272 - AAAAA56.2143.49
283 - AAAA54.7843.73
297 - AAA54.4320.82
308 - AAA54.1930.67
312 - AAA54.0027.86
328 - A53.0927.86
 8-Div A - A52.8133.83
 8-Div B - A40.3923.46
332 - AAAAAA51.4541.86
346 - AAAA50.4722.48
351 - AAAA49.4030.70
366 - AAA48.6322.45
375 - A48.4223.83
385 - AAAAAA47.5131.79
393 - AAA46.8418.57
407 - AAAAAA46.6727.91
414 - AAAA45.8921.16
422 - AA45.6927.90
436 - AA45.5015.44
448 - AA44.7216.25
456 - A41.5318.47
 6-Div A - A40.6225.46
 6-Div B - A30.0712.74
464 - AA41.0919.37
473 - A41.0513.88
 3-Div A - A40.9219.44
 3-Div B - A27.228.21
484 - A40.9512.59
 4-Div A - A37.078.03
 4-Div B - A33.0115.85
491 - A40.388.14
503 - AAAAA39.8823.27
516 - AAAAA39.6220.34
521 - AAA39.5225.00
533 - AAAAAA39.1128.82
544 - AAAAAA38.8521.83
555 - AAAAA31.8017.32
567 - A28.378.29
 7-Div B - A25.0210.08
 7-Div A - A20.365.87

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
09/21BainbridgeCrisp County0 - 2317.8585.6%0.167
09/21RoswellWheeler36 - 3721.7689.8%0.190
08/31LanierAlpharetta9 - 1417.5085.2%0.223
10/26Mundy's MillForest Park12 - 3612.5177.8%0.246
09/14Mount Zion (Carroll)Christian Heritage22 - 3014.8281.5%0.249
10/26CommerceRiverside Military Academy19 - 2016.7184.2%0.255
08/24Cedar ShoalsWinder-Barrow7 - 1414.5781.1%0.257
09/07Tattnall SquareLincoln County28 - 3414.7581.4%0.259
09/28Gordon CentralDade County12 - 1315.6082.6%0.271
08/17ChattoogaAdairsville20 - 2115.5782.6%0.271
11/09MariettaEast Coweta26 - 2815.0981.9%0.273
09/07SalemAlcovy20 - 2314.4781.0%0.277
11/09Crisp CountyPike County3 - 913.4579.3%0.279
08/31North OconeeLoganville14 - 2013.2279.0%0.283
10/19Dooly CountyTaylor County19 - 479.6472.4%0.293

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
86.8011/30Colquitt CountyArcher22 - 2116.2383.5%
86.0709/14Colquitt CountyWarner Robins41 - 1416.9084.4%
84.4009/21Colquitt CountyGrayson26 - 1418.4086.3%
83.8911/16ParkviewArcher29 - 361.2353.1%
82.7610/11ArcherGrayson14 - 411.0552.6%
82.4812/12Colquitt CountyMilton - 20.6188.7%
81.9708/17ArcherMilton19 - 213.2658.1%
81.7909/21ParkviewMilton37 - 354.4961.0%
81.5412/12Blessed TrinityCartersville - 2.2455.6%
80.5911/23Colquitt CountyNorth Gwinnett45 - 022.7990.7%
80.3108/31ParkviewLowndes39 - 276.4465.6%
79.7511/23GraysonLowndes15 - 204.1660.2%
79.6411/30Warner RobinsRome45 - 286.3065.2%
79.6111/02Colquitt CountyLowndes40 - 623.6791.4%
79.4109/14ParkviewTift County31 - 286.1664.9%