Sports

Maxwell Class AAAAAA Preseason Projections

By Loren Maxwell
Aug 11, 2015

Below are the current Maxwell Ratings' playoff projections for each class.

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2015 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.

All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAAAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAAAA team).

Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by 1) region record, 2) head to head, 3) classification record, and 4) random tie breaker.

Class AAAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the quarterfinals, semifinals, and finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rating Qtr Semi Finals Champion Odds
Colquitt County 1 - AAAAAA 98.22 811,143 698,053 563,395 457,485 1.19
North Gwinnett 7 - AAAAAA 88.04 711,316 429,983 227,402 112,651 7.88
Norcross 7 - AAAAAA 85.27 622,746 330,911 156,450 63,480 14.75
Grayson 8 - AAAAAA 86.20 472,240 286,275 147,641 62,806 14.92
Archer 8 - AAAAAA 85.87 454,509 271,700 136,491 57,339 16.44
Tucker 2 - AAAAAA 84.13 540,228 266,976 134,147 48,749 19.51
McEachern 4 - AAAAAA 85.96 407,942 237,925 108,657 48,417 19.65
Mill Creek 7 - AAAAAA 82.62 498,603 227,958 94,391 32,116 30.14
Dacula 8 - AAAAAA 81.88 293,921 145,518 57,571 19,421 50.49
Lovejoy 2 - AAAAAA 79.41 401,278 138,073 51,215 14,524 67.85
Lowndes 1 - AAAAAA 81.29 248,405 119,568 48,869 14,025 70.30
Peachtree Ridge 7 - AAAAAA 80.09 350,050 129,598 46,267 13,362 73.84
Camden County 1 - AAAAAA 81.09 212,560 100,545 39,387 11,469 86.19
Hillgrove 4 - AAAAAA 79.88 215,393 94,666 34,199 9,587 103.31
Milton 5 - AAAAAA 78.85 223,097 95,519 35,741 8,978 110.38
Valdosta 1 - AAAAAA 79.89 178,340 78,438 28,621 7,657 129.60
Hughes 3 - AAAAAA 76.96 293,376 100,056 32,846 7,307 135.86
North Cobb 4 - AAAAAA 76.91 139,414 51,751 15,583 3,528 282.45
Collins Hill 7 - AAAAAA 75.00 167,673 43,933 11,421 2,302 433.40
Etowah 5 - AAAAAA 73.81 91,788 29,408 7,400 1,424 701.25
Alpharetta 6 - AAAAAA 72.67 133,626 25,026 5,985 1,141 875.42
Tift County 1 - AAAAAA 74.02 53,473 16,156 3,765 700 1,427.57
Lee County 1 - AAAAAA 73.11 37,901 10,775 2,358 389 2,569.69
Westlake 3 - AAAAAA 68.34 93,756 16,539 2,587 310 3,224.81
Walton 5 - AAAAAA 69.80 38,670 9,161 1,684 222 4,503.50
East Coweta 3 - AAAAAA 67.02 71,700 11,312 1,628 159 6,288.31
Parkview 8 - AAAAAA 68.64 20,107 4,141 628 87 11,493.25
Newton 2 - AAAAAA 64.99 64,969 8,203 873 85 11,763.71
Central Gwinnett 8 - AAAAAA 68.74 21,110 4,414 752 84 11,903.76
South Gwinnett 8 - AAAAAA 67.67 14,241 2,689 398 56 17,856.14
Brookwood 8 - AAAAAA 67.58 14,237 2,683 405 42 23,808.52
Marietta 4 - AAAAAA 66.22 13,884 2,578 354 40 24,999.00
Roswell 5 - AAAAAA 65.95 13,098 2,429 293 27 37,036.04
North Paulding 4 - AAAAAA 64.07 6,576 1,027 110 7 142,856.14
Woodstock 5 - AAAAAA 62.86 5,013 738 86 6 166,665.67
Cherokee 5 - AAAAAA 63.07 5,306 735 83 6 166,665.67
West Forsyth 6 - AAAAAA 59.76 15,035 1,409 113 5 199,999.00
Newnan 3 - AAAAAA 59.31 11,749 934 65 4 249,999.00
Lambert 6 - AAAAAA 57.30 9,134 601 37 3 333,332.33
Harrison 4 - AAAAAA 61.71 3,221 413 33 - -
Lassiter 5 - AAAAAA 60.96 2,126 246 20 - -
Wheeler 5 - AAAAAA 59.53 1,391 151 13 - -
South Cobb 3 - AAAAAA 55.80 3,739 217 12 - -
Shiloh 8 - AAAAAA 60.10 815 96 10 - -
Douglas County 3 - AAAAAA 55.02 3,104 184 5 - -
Rockdale County 2 - AAAAAA 49.59 3,599 115 4 - -
South Forsyth 6 - AAAAAA 51.89 2,338 101 3 - -
Northview 6 - AAAAAA 49.40 1,228 56 2 - -
Chattahoochee 6 - AAAAAA 45.38 269 8 - - -
Centennial 6 - AAAAAA 46.52 375 4 - - -
Kennesaw Mountain 4 - AAAAAA 51.28 63 4 - - -
Campbell 3 - AAAAAA 40.08 11 1 - - -
Mountain View 7 - AAAAAA 48.57 48 - - - -
Alcovy 2 - AAAAAA 33.07 31 - - - -
Pope 5 - AAAAAA 49.75 12 - - - -
Duluth 7 - AAAAAA 45.09 12 - - - -
Berkmar 8 - AAAAAA 48.53 4 - - - -
North Forsyth 6 - AAAAAA 35.65 3 - - - -
Lakeside (Atlanta) 2 - AAAAAA 27.99 3 - - - -
Pebblebrook 3 - AAAAAA 36.45 1 - - - -
Johns Creek 6 - AAAAAA 33.79 - - - - -
Habersham Central 6 - AAAAAA 24.62 - - - - -
Osborne 4 - AAAAAA 24.54 - - - - -
Meadowcreek 7 - AAAAAA 12.70 - - - - -

Most Likely Region Seeding

Each region is shown with the most likely region seeding orders and odds of each team making the playoffs.

1-AAAAAA
Seed Orders
Pct 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
4.4% Colquitt County Lowndes Camden County Valdosta
4.2% Colquitt County Camden County Lowndes Valdosta
3.9% Colquitt County Lowndes Valdosta Camden County
3.2% Colquitt County Camden County Valdosta Lowndes
Each Team's Odds
Team Avg Fin 1st 2nd 3rd 4th In Odds
Colquitt County 1.34 76.1% 16.6% 5.0% 1.7% 99.4% 0.01
Lowndes 3.21 8.8% 27.2% 26.4% 17.3% 79.7% 0.25
Camden County 3.50 7.3% 22.0% 22.0% 21.0% 72.3% 0.38
Valdosta 3.64 5.3% 20.3% 22.0% 21.6% 69.2% 0.45
Tift County 4.54 1.3% 8.0% 14.6% 20.0% 44.0% 1.27
Lee County 4.76 1.1% 5.9% 10.0% 18.4% 35.4% 1.82
2-AAAAAA
Seed Orders
Pct 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
31.0% Tucker Lovejoy Newton Rockdale County
19.5% Lovejoy Tucker Newton Rockdale County
9.0% Tucker Newton Lovejoy Rockdale County
7.4% Tucker Lovejoy Rockdale County Newton
Each Team's Odds
Team Avg Fin 1st 2nd 3rd 4th In Odds
Tucker 1.49 60.1% 32.2% 6.6% 1.0% 100.0% 0.00
Lovejoy 1.85 34.5% 48.3% 15.0% 2.2% 99.9% 0.00
Newton 2.89 5.1% 17.1% 62.8% 14.1% 99.1% 0.01
Rockdale County 3.98 0.3% 2.3% 14.6% 67.1% 84.3% 0.19
Alcovy 5.23 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 10.8% 11.6% 7.62
Lakeside (Atlanta) 5.57 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 4.8% 5.1% 18.44
3-AAAAAA
Seed Orders
Pct 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
5.8% Hughes East Coweta Westlake Newnan
5.6% Hughes Westlake East Coweta Newnan
3.8% Hughes East Coweta Westlake South Cobb
3.7% Hughes Westlake East Coweta South Cobb
Each Team's Odds
Team Avg Fin 1st 2nd 3rd 4th In Odds
Hughes 1.63 60.2% 23.7% 10.9% 3.8% 98.5% 0.01
Westlake 2.64 20.4% 30.8% 25.6% 13.7% 90.5% 0.10
East Coweta 2.91 14.4% 28.3% 27.2% 16.8% 86.8% 0.15
Newnan 4.29 3.1% 9.0% 16.7% 26.1% 54.8% 0.83
South Cobb 4.97 1.0% 4.4% 9.9% 19.3% 34.7% 1.89
Douglas County 5.05 0.8% 3.8% 9.3% 18.4% 32.3% 2.09
Campbell 7.09 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 1.4% 1.8% 55.37
Pebblebrook 7.42 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 163.02
4-AAAAAA
Seed Orders
Pct 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
7.5% McEachern Hillgrove North Cobb Marietta
7.0% McEachern North Cobb Hillgrove Marietta
4.8% McEachern Hillgrove North Cobb North Paulding
4.4% McEachern North Cobb Hillgrove North Paulding
Each Team's Odds
Team Avg Fin 1st 2nd 3rd 4th In Odds
McEachern 1.64 58.2% 25.6% 11.5% 3.5% 98.8% 0.01
Hillgrove 2.37 23.9% 35.2% 26.9% 9.6% 95.5% 0.05
North Cobb 2.83 15.1% 28.0% 30.5% 15.8% 89.3% 0.12
Marietta 4.47 1.6% 5.6% 14.6% 29.7% 51.4% 0.94
North Paulding 4.97 0.9% 3.5% 9.2% 20.9% 34.4% 1.91
Harrison 5.24 0.4% 2.1% 6.7% 17.2% 26.4% 2.79
Kennesaw Mountain 6.47 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 3.3% 4.1% 23.19
Osborne - 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -
5-AAAAAA
Seed Orders
Pct 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
2.8% Milton Etowah Walton Roswell
2.3% Milton Etowah Roswell Walton
2.2% Milton Etowah Walton Woodstock
2.2% Milton Etowah Walton Cherokee
Each Team's Odds
Team Avg Fin 1st 2nd 3rd 4th In Odds
Milton 1.81 55.5% 23.9% 11.2% 5.3% 95.9% 0.04
Etowah 2.70 24.1% 30.9% 19.8% 11.8% 86.6% 0.15
Walton 3.64 10.6% 19.4% 23.0% 18.0% 70.9% 0.41
Roswell 4.76 4.5% 10.0% 15.0% 17.2% 46.7% 1.14
Cherokee 5.51 2.1% 5.7% 9.9% 14.2% 31.9% 2.13
Woodstock 5.52 1.7% 5.2% 9.9% 14.3% 31.1% 2.21
Lassiter 6.23 0.9% 2.7% 6.0% 9.7% 19.3% 4.18
Wheeler 6.44 0.6% 2.1% 4.9% 8.8% 16.4% 5.10
Pope 8.40 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% 1.0% 97.15
6-AAAAAA
Seed Orders
Pct 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
5.5% Alpharetta West Forsyth Lambert South Forsyth
5.2% Alpharetta Lambert West Forsyth South Forsyth
4.7% Alpharetta West Forsyth Lambert Northview
4.3% Alpharetta West Forsyth South Forsyth Lambert
Each Team's Odds
Team Avg Fin 1st 2nd 3rd 4th In Odds
Alpharetta 1.31 77.6% 16.2% 4.6% 1.2% 99.6% 0.00
West Forsyth 2.91 11.2% 35.3% 25.5% 15.0% 87.0% 0.15
Lambert 3.28 7.5% 27.2% 27.6% 18.2% 80.6% 0.24
South Forsyth 4.51 2.1% 10.1% 17.3% 22.2% 51.8% 0.93
Northview 4.96 1.0% 6.7% 13.1% 19.7% 40.5% 1.47
Centennial 5.88 0.3% 2.4% 6.2% 11.8% 20.7% 3.83
Chattahoochee 6.07 0.2% 1.9% 5.2% 10.2% 17.6% 4.69
North Forsyth 8.16 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 1.0% 1.4% 69.78
Johns Creek 8.44 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.8% 124.82
Habersham Central 9.48 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3,648.64
7-AAAAAA
Seed Orders
Pct 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
5.1% North Gwinnett Norcross Mill Creek Peachtree Ridge
4.8% North Gwinnett Mill Creek Norcross Peachtree Ridge
4.3% Norcross North Gwinnett Mill Creek Peachtree Ridge
3.1% Norcross Mill Creek North Gwinnett Peachtree Ridge
Each Team's Odds
Team Avg Fin 1st 2nd 3rd 4th In Odds
North Gwinnett 2.15 39.6% 26.5% 18.1% 10.7% 94.9% 0.05
Norcross 2.43 29.3% 27.7% 21.5% 13.7% 92.3% 0.08
Mill Creek 2.88 18.1% 24.1% 24.6% 18.9% 85.7% 0.17
Peachtree Ridge 3.52 9.1% 13.5% 21.4% 30.5% 74.5% 0.34
Collins Hill 4.11 3.8% 8.2% 14.3% 25.5% 51.8% 0.93
Mountain View 6.40 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 193.48
Duluth 6.55 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 362.77
Meadowcreek 7.96 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -
8-AAAAAA
Seed Orders
Pct 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
3.7% Grayson Archer Dacula Central Gwinnett
3.4% Archer Grayson Dacula Central Gwinnett
3.4% Grayson Archer Dacula Parkview
3.3% Archer Grayson Dacula Parkview
Each Team's Odds
Team Avg Fin 1st 2nd 3rd 4th In Odds
Archer 2.09 36.7% 32.5% 21.0% 6.7% 96.8% 0.03
Grayson 2.01 41.3% 30.7% 18.2% 6.5% 96.6% 0.03
Dacula 2.74 19.2% 26.6% 30.7% 13.7% 90.2% 0.11
Central Gwinnett 5.40 0.9% 3.0% 8.5% 19.2% 31.5% 2.17
Parkview 5.46 0.8% 2.8% 7.9% 18.4% 29.9% 2.34
Brookwood 5.71 0.5% 2.1% 6.4% 16.3% 25.3% 2.95
South Gwinnett 5.71 0.6% 2.2% 6.5% 15.5% 24.8% 3.04
Shiloh 7.25 0.0% 0.2% 0.9% 3.6% 4.7% 20.45
Berkmar 8.63 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 590.37

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets. The modal bracket is seeded from the most likely region seeds and assumes every favorite wins.

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

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