High School Sports Blog

List: Odds of reaching quarterfinals for teams that actually got there

By Todd Holcomb
Updated Nov 21, 2018

North Cobb Christian has won its first playoff game and reached the quarterfinals for the first time. The odds of the Eagles making the quarterfinals this season were two-in-a-million, according to the preseason Maxwell Ratings. Those odds were based on history, with the 2017 season given the most weight. North Cobb Christian had never made the playoffs and was 0-10 just two seasons ago. Each team's region and possible playoff draw also were considered in the computer math model. Maxwell then ran 1 million full-season simulations in preseason, and here are the number of times each of the current quarterfinal teams made the elite eight.

Class AAAAAAA 

141,146 - Milton

258,346 - Hillgrove

364,244 - Tift County

585,357 - Archer

628,073 - North Gwinnett

706,859 - Lowndes

822,809 - Colquitt County

841,044 - Grayson

Class AAAAAA 

87,548 - Sequoyah

94,557 - Lanier

106,475 - Creekview

314,456 - Dacula

510,334 - Northside (W.R.)

518,389 - Valdosta

545,356 - Coffee

690,900 - Lee County

Class AAAAA 

90,325 - Clarke Central

126,390 - Dutchtown

266,981 - Bainbridge

371,092 - Carrollton

575,162 - Warner Robins

832,855 - Stockbridge

891,472 - Buford

956,903 - Rome

Class AAAA 

69,547 - Baldwin

120,885 - Eastside

179,682 - Troup

423,240 - Cairo

753,307 - Marist

764,607 - Mary Persons

800,982 - Blessed Trinity

952,485 - Cartersville

Class AAA 

17,255 - Monroe Area

156,550 - Pierce County

161,765 - Jenkins

296,712 - Westminster

744,347 - Cedar Grove

779,427 - Calhoun

826,049 - Peach County

942,371 - Benedictine

Class AA 

60,019 - Dublin

100,215 - Washington County

292,488 - Rockmart

381,109 - Jefferson County

494,608 - Heard County

575,852 - Callaway

683,778 - Fitzgerald

907,741 - Rabun County

Class A (private) 

2 - North Cobb Christian

36,759 - Fellowship Christian

57,621 - Savannah Christian

179,634 - Darlington

324,219 - Calvary Day

396,652 - Athens Academy

462,112 - Prince Ave. Christian

949,773 - ELCA

Class A (public) 

372 - Greene County

2,095 - Schley County

57,923 - Marion County

70,689 - Pelham

171,453 - Commerce

266,656 - Mount Zion (Carroll)

563,919 - Irwin County

676,199 - Clinch County

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Todd Holcomb

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