Class AAAAAAA blog: History shows only 2 kinds of teams win the high class

Milton won its final 10 games of the 2018 season to claim the Class AAAAAAA champion. No team has won a title game in the highest class with a loss in October. All have won their final 10 games.
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Milton won its final 10 games of the 2018 season to claim the Class AAAAAAA champion. No team has won a title game in the highest class with a loss in October. All have won their final 10 games.

Here’s some trivia that help predict the next Class AAAAAAA champion: What is the last team to win a championship game in the highest classification without winning its last 10 games? Answer: 1999 Lowndes.

In the 21st Century, only two kinds of teams have won state titles in Georgia in the highest class – teams that don’t lose after Sept. 30. And teams that don’t lose, period.

OK, one exception – Peachtree Ridge shared the 2006 title after late losses. The Lions were co-champions with Roswell, which fit the pattern of the other 18. (That’s why the trivia question was tweaked to ‘’win a championship game.’’ More on them later.

What is a dominant team? 15-0.

There have been 10 of those this century: 2000-02 Parkview, 2003 Camden County, 2004 Lowndes, 2008 Camden County, 2011 Grayson, 2012 Norcross and 2014-15 Colquitt County and 2016 Grayson. All went 15-0.

The other eight (minus Peachtree Ridge) lost early and got hot.

None lost after September. Only two of them lost a region game, and those were region openers.

Here are those eight struggled early but righted the ship:

2005 Lowndes – lost to Ware County in non-region play Sept. 16, won 10 straight)

2006 Roswell – lost to Wheeler in non-region play Sept. 29, won 10 straight).

2007 Lowndes – lost opener to Harrison on Aug. 31, won 14 straight.

2009 Camden County – Started 1-2, won 12 straight.

2010 Brookwood – Lost region opener to Dacula on Sept. 10, won 12 straight.

2013 Norcross – Started 1-2, won 12 straight.

2016 Grayson – Lost opener to IMG Academy, won 14 straight.

2017 North Gwinnett – Lost opener to Walton, won 14 straight.

2018 Milton – Lost to Roswell and Parkview in mid-September, won 10 straight.

What teams fit the patter in 2019?

Lowndes and McEachern are 10-0.

Milton (7-3), North Gwinnett (9-1), Grayson (9-1) and Parkview (9-1) haven’t lost since September.

Colquitt County (8-2) and Marietta (8-2) have. They’ll be trying to buck history.

Here are this week’s first round game. They are ordered to match their place on the bracket. That is, the winner of the first two games will play each other in the second round.

Favored teams are to the left, the projected margins of victory to the right, courtesy of the computer Maxwell Ratings.

Mill Creek vs. Newton -13

Roswell vs. Wheeler -17

Marietta vs. Camden Co. -8

Milton vs. Central Gwinnett -32 

Archer vs. Collins Hill -10

Westlake vs. Cherokee -4

Colquitt Co. vs. North Cobb -29

Parkview vs. West Forsyth -27

East Coweta vs. Etowah -15

Grayson vs. Mountain View -30

Norcross vs. South Forsyth -2

Lowndes vs. Hillgrove -38 

Walton vs. Newnan -4

North Gwinnett vs. Shiloh -29

North Forsyth vs. Brookwood -3

McEachern vs. North Paulding -34