Class AAAAAA blog: Playoff scenarios for Regions 1-4

Here are the playoff scenarios that will play out this weekend in Regions 1-4. We’ll look at Region 5-8 on Thursday.

Region 1 

*Clinched playoff berths: Lee County (3-0 region record), Valdosta (3-1), Coffee (2-1)

*Eliminated: None

*Still in contention: Houston County (0-3), Northside-Warner Robins (0-3)

*What’s at stake: Lee County will clinch its third consecutive region championship if it beats Coffee. Valdosta would be the No. 2 seed and Coffee would be the No. 3 seed in that case. If Coffee wins, it would create a tie for first place involving those three teams, and points allowed in region games would be the tiebreaker. Coffee will be the region champion if it beats Lee County and allows fewer than 54 points, and would be followed by No. 2 Lee County and No. 3 Valdosta. However, if Coffee wins and allows 54 or more points, Valdosta would win the title, followed by No. 2 Coffee and No. 3 Lee County. The winner of this week’s Houston County-Northside game will be the No. 4 seed.

Region 2 

*Clinched playoff berths: Richmond Hill (3-0), Glynn Academy (2-1), Brunswick (2-2), Bradwell Institute (1-2)

*Eliminated: Effingham County (0-3)

*Still in contention: None

*What’s at stake: Richmond Hill clinched the title two weeks ago. Glynn Academy will be the No. 2 seed if it beats Bradwell Institute this week. Brunswick would then be the No. 3 seed, and Bradwell Institute would be the No. 4. If Bradwell Institute wins, it would create a three-way tie for second place that would include Glynn Academy, Brunswick and Bradwell Institute. That tie would be broken by fewest points allowed in the head-to-head meetings. So, if Bradwell Institute beats Glynn Academy and gives up fewer than 16 points, Bradwell would be the No. 2 seed, followed by Glynn Academy and Brunswick. If Bradwell wins and gives up 16 points or more, Brunswick would be the No. 2 seed, followed by Bradwell Institute and Glynn Academy.

Region 3 

*Clinched playoff berths: Evans (4-0), Lakeside-Evans (3-1)

*Eliminated: None

*Still in contention: Heritage-Conyers (2-2), Alcovy (1-3), Greenbrier (1-3), Grovetown (1-3)

What’s at stake: Evans is the region champion, and the winner of the Lakeside-Heritage game will be the runner-up. Lakeside will be the No. 3 seed if it loses. If Evans beats (and eliminates) Grovetown, the Lakeside-Heritage game would determine second and third place and the Alcovy-Greenbrier winner would get the fourth playoff berth. However, things would get interesting if Grovetown pulls off the upset and Heritage loses. That would create a three-way tie for the final two playoff spots among Heritage, Grovetown and the Alcovy-Greenbrier winner. In that case, point differential among the three teams would determine the No. 3 seed, and then the head-to-head winner of the remaining two teams would get the No. 4 spot.

Region 4 

*Clinched playoff berths: Stephenson (6-1), Tucker (6-1), M.L. King (5-2)

*Eliminated: Mount Zion-Jonesboro (3-5), Mundy’s Mill (2-5), Drew (1-6), Forest Park (0-7)

*Still in contention: Morrow (5-2), Lovejoy (4-3)

*What’s at stake: The winner of the Stephenson-Tucker game will be the region champion. Stephenson will be the No. 2 seed if it loses. Tucker will be the No. 2 seed if it loses or the No. 3 seed if it loses and Morrow beats M.L. King. Morrow makes the playoffs if it beats M.L. King and would finish as the No. 2 or No. 3 seed (depending on Tucker’s result). M.L. King will be the No. 3 seed if it beats Morrow or the No. 4 seed if it loses. Lovejoy’s only chance to avoid missing the playoffs for the first time since 2009 is to beat Forest Park and have Morrow lose to M.L. King. That would leave Lovejoy and Morrow tied for fourth place, with Lovejoy holding the head-to-head tiebreaker.