Class AAAAAA blog: Evans the favorite in wide-open Region 3 race

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Region 3-AAAAAA has not had a lot of luck in the playoffs since the current configuration of the six-team league was created by the GHSA’s reclassification before the 2016 season, but the race to get to the postseason from this region has been among the most wide-open in the class.

Over the past three years, three different schools – Grovetown, Evans and Heritage-Conyers – have won the region championship. Four of the six teams have finished in the top half of the standings and the bottom half at least once each, and all but Alcovy have made at least one playoff appearance.

The postseason, however, has been a struggle. Region 3 teams are just 3-12 in the playoffs over the past three seasons, including going 0-4 in 2016 (against Region 1) and 2018 (vs. Region 2). No Region 3 team has advanced beyond the second round in that stretch.

On Tuesdays this season, we’ve been examining the playoff outlooks for every team as region play kicks off (or shortly after it begins). We continue today with Region 3.

Here’s a closer look at each of the teams, broken down by playoff likelihood, in alphabetical order within each group:

Defending champion: Grovetown 

Current standings: 

Team - Region / Overall

Evans – 1-0 / 3-2

Heritage-Conyers – 1-0 / 3-3

Alcovy – 1-0 / 2-4

Lakeside-Evans – 0-1 / 4-1

Grovetown – 0-1 / 3-3

Greenbrier – 0-1 / 0-6

Safest playoff bets: Evans, Lakeside-Evans 

Evans entered region play as the favorite to win the championship, according to the computer Maxwell Ratings, and its 14-10 victory over rival Lakeside could loom large as the season plays out. The loss was Lakeside’s first of the year, as the Panthers had little trouble in victories over Duluth and three South Carolina opponents in the non-region portion of the schedule. Lakeside will look to get back on track this week against Alcovy as its works to make its eight playoff appearance in 11 seasons.

In the hunt: Alcovy, Grovetown, Heritage-Conyers 

This is an odd grouping, considering that it includes the defending region champion and the two teams that missed the playoffs last season. Alcovy hasn’t made it to the playoffs since 2013, but its 28-21 upset of Grovetown last week was huge. In six-team regions, two victories are often enough to earn a playoff berth. Grovetown’s loss didn’t help its cause, but the Warriors have some good non-region wins and should be able to recover. Heritage finished in fifth place last year but reached the playoffs in six of the previous eight seasons, and a 27-0 victory over Greenbrier in the region opener was a step toward getting the Patriots back there this year.

Long shots: Greenbrier 

It’s difficult to count a team out after one game in a small region, but Greenbrier comes about as close as you can get. The Wolfpack, which was a No. 2 seed in the playoffs last year, is 0-6 and averaging just 8.33 points per game, third-fewest in Class AAAAAA. Greenbrier opened region play with a 27-0 loss to Heritage last week, and the task won’t get any easier of the next four weeks.

Not this year: None 

Games to watch: 

If Lakeside beats Alcovy this week, the winner of Friday’s game between Evans and Heritage will be in sole possession of first place and emerge as the favorite to win the region. Lakeside has winnable games the next three weeks before taking on Heritage in the regular-season finale in a game that could impact the title chase. Alcovy meets Greenbrier on that night, as well, with a chance to pick up that crucial second victory that might bring a playoff berth, if it hasn’t clinched a spot already.

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Next week: Region 2-AAAAAA