Sports

AAAAA: Maxwell predicts region standings, W-L records

By Todd Holcomb
Aug 11, 2014

The Maxwell Ratings have predicted the region standings and the won-lost records of Georgia’s Class AAAAAA teams. The computer ratings are the work of Loren Maxwell, founder of the Georgia High School Football Historical Association. He has been involved with sports ratings since 1986.

His region-by-region breakdowns are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2014 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 trials at the rate of approximately 51 seasons per second.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the Monte Carlo simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure (i.e., schedules, region alignments, etc.).

All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAAA team).

Although some regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all region standings were deciding by recursive head-to-head comparisons with all remaining ties being broken randomly.

Region Strength and Parity

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Parity Index”, which is the probability of the region champion being a different team in two consecutive simulations adjusted for the number of teams in the region. The Parity Index takes into account each team’s schedule and game site. A higher Parity Index indicates a region whose championship is more open than a region with a lower Parity Index.

Region Competitive Rating Average Rating Parity Index
3 - AAAAA 75.50 57.35 0.711
6 - Div B - AAAAA 75.44 58.06 0.499
8 - AAAAA 70.20 50.32 0.369
2 - AAAAA 68.66 46.66 0.496
5 - AAAAA 68.19 49.74 0.719
6 - Div A - AAAAA 67.93 49.65 0.619
4 - Div B - AAAAA 65.24 47.79 0.515
7 - Div A - AAAAA 64.92 48.69 0.830
1 - AAAAA 64.51 44.52 0.652
4 - Div A - AAAAA 61.77 44.88 0.873
7 - Div B - AAAAA 58.56 33.83 0.090

Region by Region Breakdown

Each team is shown with its rating, schedule strength, projected overall and region records, average finish in the region, and the number of times winning the region along with its associated odds.

1 - AAAAA

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Carver (Columbus) 12 66.95 45.33 8.14-1.86 5.30-0.70 1.59 571,594 0.75
Harris County 20 60.84 47.70 7.31-2.69 4.81-1.19 1.98 327,014 2.06
LaGrange 38 51.06 47.70 5.51-4.49 3.72-2.28 3.19 85,755 10.66
Shaw 53 44.44 45.47 4.82-5.18 2.99-3.01 3.94 13,264 74.39
Hardaway 66 36.49 42.00 4.27-5.73 2.08-3.92 5.02 2,102 474.74
Northside (Columbus) 73 31.55 43.50 3.00-7.00 1.56-4.44 5.53 263 3,801.28
Columbus 81 19.96 42.95 1.62-8.38 0.55-5.45 6.76 8 124,999.00

2 - AAAAA

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Northside (Warner Robins) 3 77.59 47.30 8.84-1.16 8.32-0.69 1.37 694,406 0.44
Warner Robins 8 70.51 45.95 8.50-1.50 7.67-1.33 2.02 266,731 2.75
Lakeside (Evans) 30 54.28 44.88 6.35-3.65 5.71-3.29 4.07 20,596 47.55
Houston County 26 55.71 46.66 6.40-3.60 5.80-3.20 4.04 11,946 82.71
Jones County 36 51.94 45.02 6.03-3.97 5.29-3.71 4.52 5,373 185.12
Evans 49 45.51 43.80 5.23-4.77 4.34-4.66 5.98 909 1,099.11
Richmond Academy 65 37.95 45.49 3.96-6.04 3.22-5.78 7.01 26 38,460.54
Grovetown 69 34.35 44.96 3.63-6.37 2.73-6.27 7.46 13 76,922.08
Greenbrier 80 21.99 46.01 2.07-7.93 1.33-7.67 8.88 - -
Cross Creek 83 13.29 47.02 1.05-8.95 0.59-8.42 9.63 - -

3 - AAAAA

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Ware County 5 73.89 56.45 8.16-1.84 6.49-1.51 1.92 468,955 1.13
Coffee 6 72.97 52.55 8.25-1.75 6.39-1.61 2.12 369,913 1.70
Statesboro 15 66.34 58.10 6.48-3.52 5.48-2.52 3.30 93,312 9.72
Brunswick 16 64.05 57.58 5.97-4.03 5.00-3.00 4.02 43,389 22.05
Richmond Hill 22 58.74 52.89 5.93-4.07 4.26-3.74 4.84 16,534 59.48
Glynn Academy 24 56.88 61.36 4.24-5.76 3.86-4.15 5.33 7,719 128.55
Effingham County 55 43.84 57.93 2.87-7.13 2.10-5.90 7.26 128 7,811.50
South Effingham 58 40.96 53.82 3.18-6.82 1.71-6.29 7.67 49 20,407.16
Bradwell Institute 72 31.62 56.98 1.02-8.98 0.72-7.28 8.52 1 999,999.00

4 - Div A - AAAAA

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Northgate 29 54.32 43.70 6.91-3.09 4.27-1.73 2.38 333,084 2.00
Mundy's Mill 31 54.23 50.85 5.59-4.41 4.19-1.81 2.71 259,724 2.85
McIntosh 28 54.36 41.71 7.26-2.74 4.28-1.72 2.70 232,570 3.30
Starr's Mill 40 49.26 45.52 5.65-4.35 3.61-2.39 3.31 130,015 6.69
Drew 47 46.06 45.38 5.15-4.85 3.09-2.91 4.12 44,518 21.46
Forest Park 79 23.02 45.19 1.62-8.38 0.78-5.23 6.37 56 17,856.14
Morrow 78 23.23 46.43 2.00-8.00 0.78-5.22 6.40 33 30,302.03

4 - Div B - AAAAA

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Stockbridge 11 67.71 43.76 8.71-1.29 4.51-0.49 1.36 730,119 0.37
Union Grove 33 54.21 47.69 6.29-3.71 3.22-1.78 2.52 187,336 4.34
Luella 41 48.44 47.96 5.00-5.00 2.56-2.44 3.21 45,727 20.87
Dutchtown 51 45.04 52.39 3.92-6.08 2.18-2.82 4.02 28,186 34.48
Woodland (Stockbridge) 63 38.34 42.00 4.37-5.63 1.42-3.58 4.88 7,098 139.88
Ola 68 36.09 49.64 2.81-7.19 1.11-3.89 5.02 1,534 650.89

5 - AAAAA

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
East Paulding 9 69.55 49.67 8.26-1.74 7.65-1.35 1.86 447,028 1.24
Allatoona 13 66.89 49.68 7.90-2.10 7.36-1.64 2.15 344,639 1.90
South Paulding 17 63.77 46.81 7.80-2.20 6.87-2.13 2.68 184,794 4.41
Villa Rica 39 50.96 50.98 5.01-4.99 4.66-4.34 5.13 11,708 84.41
Alexander 37 51.11 49.44 5.33-4.67 4.82-4.18 5.03 10,113 97.88
New Manchester 52 44.57 50.37 3.94-6.06 3.54-5.46 6.60 733 1,363.26
Hiram 54 43.97 50.46 3.77-6.23 3.43-5.57 6.72 554 1,804.05
Chapel Hill 57 41.52 48.45 3.82-6.18 3.00-6.00 7.41 362 2,761.43
Paulding County 62 38.73 49.17 3.11-6.89 2.49-6.51 7.98 69 14,491.75
Lithia Springs 76 29.60 50.92 1.31-8.69 1.18-7.83 9.45 - -

6 - Div A - AAAAA

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Stephenson 7 71.36 49.76 8.01-1.99 4.35-0.65 1.52 542,959 0.84
M. L. King 10 68.98 52.82 7.40-2.60 4.18-0.82 1.70 434,456 1.30
Southwest DeKalb 45 46.76 54.10 3.61-6.39 2.21-2.79 3.69 15,874 62.00
Miller Grove 46 46.37 48.70 4.43-5.57 2.17-2.83 3.83 5,460 182.15
Dunwoody 64 38.29 45.22 3.84-6.16 1.35-3.65 4.73 1,024 975.56
Druid Hills 74 31.40 52.41 2.50-7.50 0.74-4.27 5.53 227 4,404.29

6 - Div B - AAAAA

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Creekside 4 76.91 57.85 8.19-1.81 3.60-0.40 1.32 757,467 0.32
Mays 19 61.40 59.95 5.34-4.66 2.30-1.70 2.71 155,698 5.42
Tri-Cities 27 55.39 46.79 6.37-3.63 1.77-2.23 3.17 41,472 23.11
Carver (Atlanta) 34 52.55 57.08 4.31-5.69 1.40-2.60 3.61 33,627 28.74
Banneker 44 47.07 62.99 2.51-7.49 0.93-3.07 4.19 11,736 84.21
Clarkston† 84 10.81 43.63 1.56-8.44
† - Plays non-region schedule

7 - Div A - AAAAA

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Dalton 21 60.32 46.59 7.10-2.90 4.56-1.44 2.13 393,683 1.54
Rome 23 57.64 46.69 7.05-2.95 4.25-1.76 2.50 302,191 2.31
Creekview 32 54.23 51.44 5.67-4.33 3.81-2.19 3.01 168,436 4.94
Sequoyah 35 52.32 55.42 4.70-5.30 3.52-2.48 3.40 118,176 7.46
Woodland (Cartersville) 56 43.29 44.94 5.00-5.00 2.25-3.75 4.98 12,104 81.62
Cass 60 40.28 47.36 4.22-5.78 1.86-4.14 5.52 5,222 190.50
River Ridge 75 29.99 46.42 3.18-6.82 0.76-5.24 6.46 188 5,318.15

7 - Div B - AAAAA

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Kell 2 77.62 40.71 8.66-1.34 5.91-0.09 1.04 960,386 0.04
Riverwood 42 47.85 34.95 6.64-3.36 4.38-1.62 2.53 26,657 36.51
Sprayberry 59 40.73 39.72 4.88-5.12 3.74-2.26 3.13 11,549 85.59
Forsyth Central 70 31.79 37.58 3.83-6.17 2.81-3.19 4.26 1,126 887.10
Cambridge 77 26.77 40.54 2.80-7.20 2.23-3.77 4.68 250 3,999.00
North Atlanta 82 18.60 35.95 2.63-7.37 1.32-4.68 5.92 32 31,249.00
North Springs 85 10.05 34.85 1.07-8.93 0.62-5.38 6.44 - -

8 - AAAAA

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Gainesville 1 80.07 50.20 8.92-1.08 8.43-0.57 1.25 806,892 0.24
Flowery Branch 14 66.71 49.00 7.96-2.04 7.13-1.87 2.48 104,402 8.58
Clarke Central 18 61.93 49.35 7.11-2.89 6.39-2.61 3.21 73,730 12.56
Heritage (Conyers) 25 56.28 48.28 6.35-3.65 5.53-3.47 4.06 12,787 77.20
Loganville 43 47.70 52.48 4.21-5.79 4.04-4.96 6.05 1,376 725.74
Lanier 48 46.02 52.48 3.90-6.10 3.73-5.27 6.38 557 1,794.33
Cedar Shoals 50 45.47 51.69 3.87-6.13 3.62-5.38 6.31 239 4,183.10
Salem 61 39.89 51.17 2.98-7.02 2.64-6.36 7.59 14 71,427.57
Apalachee 67 36.45 50.59 2.45-7.55 2.07-6.93 8.53 3 333,332.33
Winder-Barrow 71 31.63 53.77 1.43-8.57 1.44-7.57 9.14 - -

About the Author

Todd Holcomb

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