Sports

Falcons have 54 percent chance to make the playoffs

113014 ATLANTA: Falcons defenders Desmond Trufant ( left) and Paul Worrilow stop Cardinals running back Andre Ellington for a short gain during the first half in an NFL football game on Sunday, Nov. 30, 2014, in Atlanta. CURTIS COMPTON / CCOMPTON@AJC.COM 113014 ATLANTA: Falcons defenders Desmond Trufant ( left) and Paul Worrilow stop Cardinals running back Andre Ellington for a short gain during the first half in an NFL football game on Sunday, Nov. 30, 2014, in Atlanta. CURTIS COMPTON / CCOMPTON@AJC.COM
113014 ATLANTA: Falcons defenders Desmond Trufant ( left) and Paul Worrilow stop Cardinals running back Andre Ellington for a short gain during the first half in an NFL football game on Sunday, Nov. 30, 2014, in Atlanta. CURTIS COMPTON / CCOMPTON@AJC.COM 113014 ATLANTA: Falcons defenders Desmond Trufant ( left) and Paul Worrilow stop Cardinals running back Andre Ellington for a short gain during the first half in an NFL football game on Sunday, Nov. 30, 2014, in Atlanta. CURTIS COMPTON / CCOMPTON@AJC.COM
By D. Orlando Ledbetter
Dec 2, 2014

FLOWERY BRANCH -- The Falcons have a 54 percent chance of making the playoffs and need to win four of the remaining four games to virtually clinch a playoff berth, according to www.makeNFLplayoffs.com.

The Saints, who are tied for first place with the Falcons, have a 38 percent chance of making the playoffs.

In the NFC, eight teams control their own destiny with the Cardinals, Eagles and Packers only needing 3 wins in the final 4 games to clinch a playoff spot. The 49ers comes close to controlling its own destiny with a 99.7% chance of earning a playoff berth with four wins in their final four games.

Tampa Bay has a less than 0.000005 chance of making the playoffs. The Redskins and Giants were eliminated after Week 13.

In the AFC,  eight teams control their own destiny with the Broncos only needing 2 wins to clinch a playoff spot. The Patriots have the best shot at the top seed due to their head to head win vs. the Broncos. Even 6-6 Houston comes close to controlling its own destiny with a 98.5% chance of earning a playoff berth with four wins in their final four games.

The Jets, Titans and Jaguars were eliminated after Week 12. The Raiders were eliminated after Week 11.

                                  ----Win-Division----  -Wildcard

                         TOTAL    1st Round  1st Round  1st Round     Make     Record to

    AFC Team Name       W--L--T      BYE        HOME       ROAD     Playoffs    Clinch

--------------------   -- -- --   ---------  ---------  ---------   --------   ---------

      Denver Broncos    9  3  0    0.58683    0.21579    0.13890    0.94152       2-2
  Indianapolis Colts    8  4  0    0.13027    0.79153    0.00619    0.92799       3-1
New England Patriots    9  3  0    0.58452    0.14967    0.13899    0.87318       3-1
  Cincinnati Bengals    8  3  1    0.36801    0.29954    0.12624    0.79379       3-1
  San Diego Chargers    8  4  0    0.13000    0.03885    0.49387    0.66271       3-1
      Miami Dolphins    7  5  0    0.05147    0.09970    0.18336    0.33452       4-0
  Kansas City Chiefs    7  5  0    0.01669    0.01184    0.30205    0.33058       4-0
 Pittsburgh Steelers    7  5  0    0.06027    0.09695    0.16494    0.32215       4-0
       Buffalo Bills    7  5  0    0.03494    0.07970    0.13160    0.24624
    Baltimore Ravens    7  5  0    0.01304    0.06189    0.14410    0.21904
    Cleveland Browns    7  5  0    0.02062    0.07968    0.10781    0.20811
      Houston Texans    6  6  0    0.00334    0.07487    0.06195    0.14015

                                  ----Win-Division----  -Wildcard

              TOTAL    1st Round  1st Round  1st Round     Make     Record to

NFC Team Name       W--L--T      BYE        HOME       ROAD     Playoffs    Clinch

--------------------   -- -- --   ---------  ---------  ---------   --------   ---------

   Arizona Cardinals    9  3  0    0.54344    0.07462    0.31185    0.92992       3-1
 Philadelphia Eagles    9  3  0    0.39488    0.37499    0.09533    0.86520       3-1
   Green Bay Packers    9  3  0    0.48122    0.15295    0.26032    0.89449       3-1
       Detroit Lions    8  4  0    0.21927    0.14656    0.34930    0.71513       4-0
    Seattle Seahawks    8  4  0    0.22622    0.10426    0.37274    0.70321       4-0
      Dallas Cowboys    8  4  0    0.10854    0.12160    0.35152    0.58165       4-0
     Atlanta Falcons    5  7  0    0.00001    0.54044    0.00001    0.54046       4-0
  New Orleans Saints    5  7  0    0.00000    0.38570    0.00003    0.38573       4-0
 San Francisco 49ers    7  5  0    0.02641    0.02456    0.23646    0.28744
    Saint Louis Rams    5  7  0    0.00000    0.00048    0.01001    0.01049
   Carolina Panthers    3  8  1    0.00000    0.07385    0.00000    0.07385
       Chicago Bears    5  7  0    0.00000    0.00000    0.00825    0.00825
   Minnesota Vikings    5  7  0    0.00000    0.00000    0.00418    0.00418
Tampa Bay Buccaneers    2 10  0    0.00000    0.00000    0.00000    0.00000*

-1st-Round-BYE -Host-Wildcard- -Road-Wildcard-  Make

Team Name         Champ    2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th   Playoffs

--------------------   ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------  -------

Atlanta Falcons   0.00000 0.00001 0.00059 0.53985 0.00000 0.00001  0.54046

AtlFal  Record     Make                      1st Round

Final  4 Games   Playoffs                Playoff Opponent     Probability

--------------   --------              --------------------   -----------

4-0         1.00000                     MISS PLAYOFFS     0.45954

3-1         0.93762                 Arizona Cardinals     0.12412

2-2         0.59298                  Seattle Seahawks     0.11589

1-3         0.08574                    Dallas Cowboys     0.09864

0-4         0.00000                 Green Bay Packers     0.06314

Detroit Lions     0.05778

San Francisco 49ers     0.05740

Philadelphia Eagles     0.02168

Saint Louis Rams     0.00109

Chicago Bears     0.00054

Minnesota Vikings     0.00018

BYE     0.00001

New Orleans Saints     0.00000

NEXT UP: The Falcons (5-7) play at the Green Bay Packers (9-3) at 8:30 p.m. Monday at historic Lambeau Field.

FALCONS FAN MAILBAG: We take your questions from 11:30 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. on Friday.

ICYMI: In case you missed it

GAME STORY: Falcons throttle Cardinals in a stunner

WATCH: D. Led -- Falcons throttle Cardinals 29-18

PLAYTIME CHART: Moore plays 100 percent of snaps in his return

NOTEBOOK: Jackson ends 35-game rushing drought

QUOTEBOARD: What the Falcons had to say  . . . 

SIDEBAR: Cards Peterson can't back up talk as Jones dominates

SIDEBAR: Moore announces his return in a big way

About the Author

Honored by the Pro Football Hall of Fame in recognition of his "long and distinguished reporting in the field of pro football," D. Orlando Ledbetter, Esq. has covered the NFL 28 seasons. A graduate of Howard University, he's a winner of Georgia Sportswriter of the Year and three Associated Press Sports Editor awards.

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