The Panthers (5-0) are leading the NFC South after they rallied to beat the Seahawks and earn their first W against a substantial opponent (though maybe the Seahawks are as mediocre as they appear to be). But the Falcons (5-1) have the advantage in the division race because they've earned more quality victories and have an easier remaining schedule.
That was the narrative before Week 6. It’s less compelling after the weekend, and not just because the Falcons flopped at New Orleans.
It’s true that the remaining Falcons opponents are a combined 19-27 (the percentage won’t change after the Giants and Eagles play each other tonight). The Panthers (5-0) and Vikings (3-2) are the only future Falcons foes with a winning record, and neither of them has beaten an opponent with a winning record.
By contrast, future Panthers opponents are a combined 28-27. The Panthers still have to play the Packers (6-0) and the Falcons (twice).
But the Falcons’ victory against Washington looks less impressive after Washington got beat down by the Jets yesterday. If the Giants lose tonight both they and the Eagles will be 3-3, leaving the Falcons in the same boat with the Panthers: no victories against teams with winning records. The Cowboys and Texans, the two other vanquished Falcons opponents, are not good.
The two games against the Panthers will be tough tests for the Falcons. The Colts will come to the Dome after a bye and with Andrew Luck more than a month removed from his return from a shoulder injury. The Vikings are competent and the 49ers are showing some signs of life.
Before this weekend's games, Football Outsiders ranked the Falcons' remaining schedule as the easiest in the league by measure of DVOA. It's doubtful that will change after this weekend. The 49ers and Vikings managed close home victories against bad teams; the Titans got blown out by the Dolphins and the Colts' defense surrendered to the Pats.
So the Falcons still have better victories than the Panthers and also an easier schedule. It’s just that the Falcons’ victories don’t look as good and the schedule doesn’t appear as easy as before Week 6.
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