Maxwell Week 11 projections

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.
The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.
Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.
The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.
The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.
Nov 12
| Favorite | Underdog | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rating | Class | Team | Pct | Median Scores | Median Margin | Team | Class |
| 33.87 | AA | South Atlanta | 84.2% | 28 - 14 | 14 | KIPP Atlanta Collegiate | AA |
| 33.05 | AAAA | Westside (Macon) | 92.0% | 30 - 7 | 23 | Spalding | AAAA |
| 26.17 | AAAA | West Laurens | 97.4% | 33 - 0 | 33 | Rutland | AAAA |
| 24.49 | A Public | Pelham | 95.9% | 34 - 0 | 34 | Seminole County | A Public |
| 22.36 | AAAA | Riverdale | 96.2% | 31 - 0 | 31 | McDonough | AAAA |
| 21.37 | AA | Bleckley County | 98.5% | 41 - 0 | 41 | Southwest | AA |
| 8.98 | AAAA | Shaw | 92.7% | 28 - 0 | 28 | Spencer | AAAA |
| 0.51 | AAAA | Columbus | 95.8% | 40 - 14 | 26 | Kendrick | AAAA |
Nov 13
| Favorite | Underdog | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rating | Class | Team | Pct | Median Scores | Median Margin | Team | Class |
| 94.00 | AAAAAA | Lee County | 52.9% | 19 - 17 | 2 | Valdosta | AAAAAA |
| 80.09 | AAAAAAA | Collins Hill | 78.3% | 27 - 14 | 13 | Mill Creek | AAAAAAA |
| 77.41 | AAAAA | Cartersville | 58.7% | 23 - 21 | 2 | Calhoun | AAAAA |
| 75.92 | AAAAA | Ware County | 87.1% | 28 - 10 | 18 | Veterans | AAAAA |
| 75.66 | AAAAAA | Lovejoy | 54.4% | 21 - 20 | 1 | Westlake | AAAAAA |
| 74.29 | AAAAAAA | Lowndes | 97.1% | 37 - 6 | 31 | Camden County | AAAAAAA |
| 74.23 | AAAAAAA | East Coweta | 72.0% | 28 - 20 | 8 | McEachern | AAAAAAA |
| 73.49 | AAAAAA | Houston County | 71.9% | 20 - 9 | 11 | Northside (Warner Robins) | AAAAAA |
| 73.45 | AAAAAAA | Brookwood | 66.6% | 26 - 20 | 6 | South Gwinnett | AAAAAAA |
| 72.99 | AAAAAA | Rome | 51.6% | 14 - 14 | 0 | Douglas County | AAAAAA |
| 72.83 | AAAAAAA | Roswell | 80.2% | 28 - 14 | 14 | Alpharetta | AAAAAAA |
| 71.21 | AAAAAA | Carrollton | 81.2% | 30 - 18 | 12 | Alexander | AAAAAA |
| 70.96 | AAAAAAA | Walton | 56.7% | 21 - 18 | 3 | Harrison | AAAAAAA |
| 70.25 | AAA | Greater Atlanta Christian | 73.1% | 27 - 18 | 9 | Carver (Atlanta) | AAA |
| 70.01 | AAAAAAA | Colquitt County | 99.5% | 41 - 0 | 41 | Tift County | AAAAAAA |
| 69.14 | AAAAAAA | Grayson | 98.2% | 34 - 0 | 34 | Newton | AAAAAAA |
| 68.70 | AAAAAAA | Denmark | 58.7% | 21 - 17 | 4 | Gainesville | AAAAAAA |
| 68.21 | AAAAAA | Sprayberry | 50.7% | 28 - 28 | 0 | Kell | AAAAAA |
| 67.49 | AAAAAA | Hughes | 78.4% | 25 - 14 | 11 | Tucker | AAAAAA |
| 65.62 | AAAAAAA | North Forsyth | 73.9% | 28 - 19 | 9 | South Forsyth | AAAAAAA |
| 63.83 | AAAAAA | River Ridge | 77.1% | 26 - 14 | 12 | Johns Creek | AAAAAA |
| 63.52 | AAAAAAA | Hillgrove | 83.7% | 28 - 14 | 14 | North Paulding | AAAAAAA |
| 63.21 | AAAAAAA | West Forsyth | 78.6% | 27 - 15 | 12 | Lambert | AAAAAAA |
| 62.91 | AAAAAAA | North Cobb | 96.0% | 38 - 10 | 28 | Marietta | AAAAAAA |
| 62.32 | AAAA | Stephenson | 50.6% | 15 - 15 | 0 | Hapeville Charter | AAAA |
| 62.20 | AAAA | Jefferson | 95.1% | 34 - 7 | 27 | North Oconee | AAAA |
| 61.63 | AAAAAAA | Milton | 95.1% | 33 - 3 | 30 | Woodstock | AAAAAAA |
| 61.30 | AAAAAA | South Paulding | 62.1% | 22 - 20 | 2 | East Paulding | AAAAAA |
| 60.19 | AAAAA | Harris County | 55.3% | 20 - 19 | 1 | Griffin | AAAAA |
| 60.08 | AAAAAA | Lanier | 72.6% | 27 - 19 | 8 | Shiloh | AAAAAA |
| 60.08 | A Private | Athens Academy | 71.3% | 21 - 14 | 7 | George Walton Academy | A Private |
| 59.77 | AAAAAAA | Mountain View | 52.4% | 22 - 21 | 1 | Peachtree Ridge | AAAAAAA |
| 59.49 | A Public | Brooks County | 80.7% | 27 - 14 | 13 | Turner County | A Public |
| 58.97 | A Public | Irwin County | 85.6% | 28 - 12 | 16 | Clinch County | A Public |
| 57.31 | AAAAAA | Buford | 97.7% | 35 - 0 | 35 | Winder-Barrow | AAAAAA |
| 57.28 | AAA | Crisp County | 93.2% | 29 - 6 | 23 | Central (Macon) | AAA |
| 57.26 | AA | Washington County | 59.8% | 22 - 20 | 2 | Dodge County | AA |
| 57.11 | AAAA | Carver (Columbus) | 64.8% | 24 - 20 | 4 | Hardaway | AAAA |
| 56.88 | AAAA | Bainbridge | 90.4% | 30 - 10 | 20 | Thomas County Central | AAAA |
| 55.86 | AAAAAA | Riverwood | 57.1% | 21 - 20 | 1 | Sequoyah | AAAAAA |
| 55.77 | AAAAA | Blessed Trinity | 98.1% | 37 - 0 | 37 | Cass | AAAAA |
| 55.37 | AAAAA | Jones County | 89.2% | 34 - 14 | 20 | Woodland (Stockbridge) | AAAAA |
| 54.99 | AAAAA | Decatur | 57.6% | 20 - 17 | 3 | Southwest DeKalb | AAAAA |
| 54.98 | AAAAAAA | Forsyth Central | 78.0% | 24 - 14 | 10 | Etowah | AAAAAAA |
| 54.72 | AAAA | Cedartown | 87.1% | 28 - 10 | 18 | Central (Carrollton) | AAAA |
| 54.58 | AAAAA | Creekside | 72.3% | 20 - 12 | 8 | Jonesboro | AAAAA |
| 54.49 | AAA | Monroe Area | 69.3% | 24 - 17 | 7 | Franklin County | AAA |
| 54.22 | A Public | Washington-Wilkes | 64.7% | 27 - 21 | 6 | Commerce | A Public |
| 53.51 | AAAAA | Union Grove | 60.8% | 27 - 21 | 6 | Stockbridge | AAAAA |
| 53.50 | AA | Heard County | 54.3% | 24 - 21 | 3 | Bremen | AA |
| 52.75 | AA | Toombs County | 52.2% | 20 - 20 | 0 | Swainsboro | AA |
| 52.44 | AAAAAA | Dalton | 69.9% | 24 - 17 | 7 | Paulding County | AAAAAA |
| 52.32 | AAAAAA | Cambridge | 76.8% | 28 - 20 | 8 | Chattahoochee | AAAAAA |
| 50.62 | AAA | Burke County | 77.3% | 25 - 14 | 11 | Morgan County | AAA |
| 49.85 | AAA | Mary Persons | 53.3% | 21 - 21 | 0 | Jackson | AAA |
| 49.44 | AAAA | Perry | 82.4% | 28 - 14 | 14 | Howard | AAAA |
| 49.39 | AAAA | New Hampstead | 54.8% | 21 - 20 | 1 | Jenkins | AAAA |
| 49.11 | AAA | Cherokee Bluff | 81.3% | 28 - 14 | 14 | North Hall | AAA |
| 49.09 | AAAAAAA | Archer | 98.7% | 40 - 0 | 40 | Duluth | AAAAAAA |
| 48.83 | AAAAA | Northgate | 61.9% | 23 - 20 | 3 | Whitewater | AAAAA |
| 48.64 | AAA | North Murray | 55.3% | 21 - 21 | 0 | Adairsville | AAA |
| 48.49 | AAAAAA | Evans | 77.7% | 24 - 14 | 10 | Heritage (Conyers) | AAAAAA |
| 48.24 | AAA | Peach County | 97.4% | 36 - 0 | 36 | Upson-Lee | AAA |
| 48.19 | A Private | Eagle's Landing Christian | 93.4% | 31 - 7 | 24 | Whitefield Academy | A Private |
| 47.62 | A Private | First Presbyterian | 55.0% | 21 - 20 | 1 | Stratford Academy | A Private |
| 47.52 | AAAAAA | Dacula | 96.9% | 36 - 6 | 30 | Central Gwinnett | AAAAAA |
| 47.51 | AAAA | Marist | 98.6% | 32 - 0 | 32 | Miller Grove | AAAA |
| 47.48 | AAAAA | Woodward Academy | 82.9% | 27 - 13 | 14 | Tri-Cities | AAAAA |
| 47.07 | AA | Early County | 84.3% | 32 - 17 | 15 | Worth County | AA |
| 46.55 | A Public | Taylor County | 57.1% | 22 - 21 | 1 | Marion County | A Public |
| 45.86 | AAAAA | Loganville | 77.5% | 26 - 14 | 12 | Apalachee | AAAAA |
| 45.07 | AA | Vidalia | 83.6% | 28 - 14 | 14 | Bacon County | AA |
| 44.59 | AAAAA | Greenbrier | 77.0% | 27 - 14 | 13 | Jackson County | AAAAA |
| 43.72 | AAAAA | Dutchtown | 94.6% | 28 - 0 | 28 | Locust Grove | AAAAA |
| 43.43 | AAAAAAA | Newnan | 98.5% | 40 - 0 | 40 | Campbell | AAAAAAA |
| 43.08 | AAAA | Troup | 66.9% | 26 - 20 | 6 | LaGrange | AAAA |
| 41.28 | AAAAA | Eastside | 93.5% | 28 - 0 | 28 | Walnut Grove | AAAAA |
| 41.18 | AAAAA | Hiram | 80.1% | 28 - 14 | 14 | Woodland (Cartersville) | AAAAA |
| 41.03 | AAAA | Madison County | 65.6% | 26 - 20 | 6 | East Hall | AAAA |
| 40.96 | A Public | Charlton County | 51.5% | 21 - 20 | 1 | Lanier County | A Public |
| 40.31 | AAAAAA | Allatoona | 99.0% | 34 - 0 | 34 | Lassiter | AAAAAA |
| 39.72 | AAAA | Luella | 64.4% | 20 - 14 | 6 | Fayette County | AAAA |
| 39.62 | AAAAA | Lithonia | 61.8% | 23 - 20 | 3 | Salem | AAA |
| 39.05 | A Public | Schley County | 58.5% | 19 - 14 | 5 | Manchester | A Public |
| 38.71 | AAAAA | M.L. King | 72.4% | 25 - 16 | 9 | Northview | AAAAA |
| 38.66 | AA | Rabun County | 98.4% | 41 - 3 | 38 | Union County | AA |
| 38.56 | AAAAAA | Statesboro | 89.8% | 27 - 6 | 21 | Effingham County | AAAAAA |
| 38.55 | AAA | Harlem | 66.0% | 27 - 21 | 6 | Hephzibah | AAA |
| 38.54 | A Public | Bowdon | 75.4% | 21 - 13 | 8 | B.E.S.T. Academy | A Public |
| 37.57 | AAAAA | Ola | 98.4% | 38 - 0 | 38 | Eagle's Landing | AAAAA |
| 37.50 | AAAA | Heritage (Ringgold) | 75.6% | 22 - 13 | 9 | Pickens | AAAA |
| 37.45 | GISA AAA | Pinewood Christian | 85.4% | 28 - 14 | 14 | Frederica Academy | GISA AAA |
| 37.19 | A Public | Metter | 98.3% | 35 - 0 | 35 | Claxton | A Public |
| 37.17 | A Public | Dublin | 97.1% | 38 - 7 | 31 | Telfair County | A Public |
| 36.93 | AAAA | Cairo | 96.2% | 32 - 0 | 32 | Dougherty | AAAA |
| 36.91 | A Private | Pacelli | 54.1% | 21 - 20 | 1 | Brookstone | A Private |
| 36.36 | AAA | Ringgold | 74.3% | 29 - 21 | 8 | Sonoraville | AAA |
| 36.07 | A Public | Johnson County | 83.2% | 21 - 7 | 14 | Dooly County | A Public |
| 35.61 | AAAAA | Banneker | 83.3% | 29 - 15 | 14 | Mundy's Mill | AAAAA |
| 35.26 | AAA | Sandy Creek | 96.4% | 34 - 0 | 34 | Redan | AAA |
| 35.09 | AAAAAA | North Atlanta | 90.7% | 28 - 6 | 22 | Morrow | AAAAAA |
| 34.97 | AAAAAA | Richmond Hill | 99.6% | 42 - 0 | 42 | South Effingham | AAAAAA |
| 34.86 | A Private | Strong Rock Christian | 56.5% | 21 - 20 | 1 | Tattnall Square | A Private |
| 34.73 | AAAA | Northwest Whitfield | 90.5% | 34 - 14 | 20 | Ridgeland | AAAA |
| 34.62 | A Public | Montgomery County | 57.2% | 26 - 22 | 4 | Wheeler County | A Public |
| 33.96 | AAAAAA | Grovetown | 53.8% | 20 - 18 | 2 | Lakeside (Evans) | AAAAAA |
| 33.52 | AA | Pepperell | 90.3% | 31 - 12 | 19 | Chattooga | AA |
| 32.69 | AA | Jefferson County | 97.7% | 34 - 0 | 34 | Westside (Augusta) | AA |
| 32.60 | AAAAAA | Brunswick | 98.7% | 38 - 0 | 38 | Bradwell Institute | AAAAAA |
| 32.19 | AAAAAAA | Discovery | 78.9% | 24 - 14 | 10 | Dunwoody | AAAAAAA |
| 32.05 | AAA | Southeast Bulloch | 79.5% | 26 - 14 | 12 | Rockdale County | AAAAAA |
| 31.85 | A Public | Screven County | 63.5% | 21 - 16 | 5 | Jenkins County | A Public |
| 31.80 | AAA | Americus-Sumter | 70.5% | 26 - 18 | 8 | Pike County | AAA |
| 30.29 | AAA | Hart County | 97.4% | 41 - 10 | 31 | East Jackson | AAA |
| 30.22 | AA | Thomasville | 99.1% | 42 - 0 | 42 | Berrien | AA |
| 29.20 | A Public | Mitchell County | 86.1% | 31 - 14 | 17 | Terrell County | A Public |
| 28.97 | A Private | Mount Pisgah Christian | 89.8% | 28 - 7 | 21 | King's Ridge Christian | A Private |
| 28.92 | AAAAA | Lithia Springs | 90.8% | 30 - 8 | 22 | Grady | AAAAA |
| 28.73 | A Private | Mount de Sales | 83.6% | 28 - 14 | 14 | Deerfield-Windsor | A Private |
| 28.52 | AA | Jeff Davis | 97.7% | 35 - 0 | 35 | East Laurens | AA |
| 28.49 | AA | Northeast | 96.0% | 35 - 6 | 29 | Monticello | AA |
| 28.36 | A Public | Mount Zion (Carroll) | 56.9% | 27 - 24 | 3 | Trion | A Public |
| 27.69 | AAAA | Flowery Branch | 99.2% | 44 - 0 | 44 | Chestatee | AAAA |
| 27.69 | GISA AAA | Brookwood School | 75.6% | 30 - 21 | 9 | Valwood School | GISA AAA |
| 27.61 | GISA AA | Gatewood School | 83.9% | 27 - 12 | 15 | Piedmont Academy | GISA AA |
| 26.94 | AAAAA | St. Pius X | 99.4% | 43 - 0 | 43 | Stone Mountain | AAAAA |
| 26.80 | GISA AAA | John Milledge Academy | 99.5% | 41 - 0 | 41 | Creekside Christian | GISA AAA |
| 26.70 | AAAAA | Starr's Mill | 99.5% | 40 - 0 | 40 | McIntosh | AAAAA |
| 26.31 | AAA | Murray County | 65.2% | 26 - 20 | 6 | Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe | AAA |
| 26.28 | AA | Gordon Central | 54.1% | 21 - 21 | 0 | Dade County | AA |
| 26.08 | AA | Fannin County | 98.4% | 40 - 0 | 40 | Coosa | AA |
| 25.85 | AAA | Johnson (Savannah) | 75.3% | 27 - 17 | 10 | Beach | AAA |
| 25.16 | A Private | Athens Christian | 80.5% | 27 - 14 | 13 | Loganville Christian | A Private |
| 24.95 | AAA | Pierce County | 99.8% | 42 - 0 | 42 | Tattnall County | AAA |
| 23.36 | AA | Laney | 58.0% | 14 - 13 | 1 | Oglethorpe County | AA |
| 23.08 | A Public | Hawkinsville | 67.4% | 24 - 18 | 6 | Treutlen | A Public |
| 21.78 | GISA AAA | Tiftarea Academy | 87.8% | 26 - 7 | 19 | Southland Academy | GISA AAA |
| 21.70 | AA | Therrell | 66.0% | 25 - 20 | 5 | Towers | AA |
| 19.21 | A Private | Hebron Christian | 96.0% | 35 - 6 | 29 | Providence Christian | A Private |
| 19.07 | A Public | Chattahoochee County | 99.2% | 41 - 0 | 41 | Greenville | A Public |
| 18.37 | GISA AA | Briarwood Academy | 71.6% | 21 - 13 | 8 | Thomas Jefferson | GISA AA |
| 16.95 | A Public | Social Circle | 82.1% | 28 - 14 | 14 | Towns County | A Public |
| 15.63 | AAAAA | Chamblee | 94.1% | 29 - 0 | 29 | Lakeside (Atlanta) | AAAAAA |
| 15.57 | A Private | Darlington | 98.0% | 35 - 0 | 35 | Walker | A Private |
| 14.42 | AAAA | Islands | 99.5% | 40 - 0 | 40 | Savannah | AAA |
| 14.17 | A Private | Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg) | 99.2% | 37 - 0 | 37 | Heritage School | A Private |
| 13.91 | AAAAAA | Pope | 99.1% | 39 - 0 | 39 | Osborne | AAAAAA |
| 12.38 | A Public | Hancock Central | 97.5% | 35 - 0 | 35 | Wilkinson County | A Public |
| 11.55 | A Public | Gordon Lee | 98.6% | 35 - 0 | 35 | Armuchee | A Public |
| 8.14 | AA | Putnam County | 99.5% | 42 - 0 | 42 | Josey | AA |
| 7.75 | AAAAA | Drew | 93.4% | 28 - 0 | 28 | Forest Park | AAAAA |
| 6.23 | A Public | Warren County | 97.2% | 35 - 0 | 35 | ACE Charter | A Public |
| 5.99 | GISA AAA | Westfield School | 97.1% | 40 - 8 | 32 | Bethlehem Christian Academy | GISA AAA |
| 4.97 | GISA AA | Southwest Georgia Academy | 96.6% | 41 - 14 | 27 | Memorial Day | GISA AA |
| 4.91 | A Private | Lakeview Academy | 95.6% | 35 - 7 | 28 | St. Francis | A Private |
| 3.33 | AAA | Windsor Forest | 99.6% | 38 - 0 | 38 | Groves | AAA |
| 3.11 | A Public | Emanuel County Institute | 98.6% | 38 - 0 | 38 | Bryan County | A Public |
| 2.80 | AAA | Richmond Academy | 99.9% | 42 - 0 | 42 | Cross Creek | AAA |
| 2.27 | GISA AAA | Bulloch Academy | 99.3% | 33 - 0 | 33 | St. Andrew's School | GISA AAA |
| 2.20 | A Public | Randolph-Clay | 55.0% | 21 - 20 | 1 | Baconton Charter | A Public |
| 1.64 | A Public | Lincoln County | 99.3% | 38 - 0 | 38 | Greene County | A Public |
| -1.27 | AA | Butler | 93.2% | 31 - 7 | 24 | Glenn Hills | AA |
| -10.64 | AAA | Dawson County | 100.0% | 49 - 0 | 49 | Lumpkin County | AAA |
| -17.66 | GISA AA | Edmund Burke Academy | 95.6% | 35 - 7 | 28 | Augusta Prep | GISA AA |
| -24.14 | GISA AA | Terrell Academy | 99.8% | 50 - 0 | 50 | Robert Toombs Academy | GISA AA |
Nov 14
| Favorite | Underdog | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rating | Class | Team | Pct | Median Scores | Median Margin | Team | Class |
| 56.58 | AA | Callaway | 73.9% | 22 - 14 | 8 | Temple | AA |
| 51.35 | A Private | Wesleyan | 66.9% | 22 - 16 | 6 | Holy Innocents | A Private |
| 36.30 | AAAAAA | Wheeler | 67.8% | 24 - 19 | 5 | South Cobb | AAAAAA |
Nov 16
| Favorite | Underdog | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rating | Class | Team | Pct | Median Scores | Median Margin | Team | Class |
| 27.12 | AAAA | Hampton | 52.8% | 19 - 17 | 2 | Mount Zion (Jonesboro) | AAAA |
| 26.44 | AAAA | Westside (Macon) | 96.0% | 34 - 0 | 34 | Rutland | AAAA |
| 24.27 | A Public | Miller County | 73.7% | 21 - 13 | 8 | Seminole County | A Public |
Nov 17
| Favorite | Underdog | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rating | Class | Team | Pct | Median Scores | Median Margin | Team | Class |
| 47.36 | AAAAAA | Habersham Central | 85.6% | 28 - 14 | 14 | Central Gwinnett | AAAAAA |
| 42.15 | A Public | Brooks County | 96.6% | 35 - 6 | 29 | Charlton County | A Public |
| 34.00 | AA | Model | 74.6% | 21 - 13 | 8 | Chattooga | AA |
| 15.37 | AAAA | Troup | 98.0% | 36 - 0 | 36 | Jordan | AAAA |