High School Sports Blog

Maxwell playoff projections heading into Second Round

August 20, 2021 - Kennesaw, Ga: Buford wide receiver Tobi Olawale (4) celebrates his receiving touchdown with running back Victor Venn (6) during the second half against North Cobb at North Cobb high school Friday, August 20, 2021 in Kennesaw, Ga.. Buford won 35-27. JASON GETZ FOR THE ATLANTA JOURNAL-CONSTITUTION
August 20, 2021 - Kennesaw, Ga: Buford wide receiver Tobi Olawale (4) celebrates his receiving touchdown with running back Victor Venn (6) during the second half against North Cobb at North Cobb high school Friday, August 20, 2021 in Kennesaw, Ga.. Buford won 35-27. JASON GETZ FOR THE ATLANTA JOURNAL-CONSTITUTION
By Loren Maxwell
Nov 15, 2023

Below are the current Maxwell Ratings’ playoff projections for each class in the GHSA.

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2023 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 iterations.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.

Class AAAAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

ach team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Colquitt County#1 (1-AAAAAAA)11-096.9187.263.48868,934.85740,648.03555,182.30317,547.282.15
Mill Creek#1 (8-AAAAAAA)11-094.4287.283.34916,163.25809,017.25398,282.89213,918.073.67
Walton#1 (5-AAAAAAA)11-095.9889.403.03922,662.14563,028.73346,905.78201,395.953.97
Carrollton#1 (2-AAAAAAA)10-193.9490.742.59847,099.77401,391.07225,296.50117,957.297.48
Buford#2 (8-AAAAAAA)10-191.6190.432.53776,792.60483,785.26193,942.9880,337.0211.45
Grayson#1 (4-AAAAAAA)9-287.0788.972.49884,125.41425,867.84141,524.0041,262.8823.23
Milton#1 (6-AAAAAAA)9-283.9789.612.10826,705.20184,481.2472,091.6515,976.5261.59
Westlake#2 (2-AAAAAAA)9-283.2392.601.22131,065.1564,433.1120,847.524,312.27230.90
Norcross#1 (7-AAAAAAA)9-279.6991.201.32223,207.4076,344.4014,122.732,067.82482.60
McEachern#1 (3-AAAAAAA)7-478.1490.951.61513,107.2581,917.9510,196.481,591.25627.44
Camden County#3 (1-AAAAAAA)8-379.4692.291.57486,892.7572,641.098,557.511,515.48658.86
Valdosta#2 (1-AAAAAAA)8-381.7394.781.19152,900.2325,375.755,886.521,282.29778.85
Peachtree Ridge#2 (7-AAAAAAA)10-176.6792.611.1283,836.7536,423.703,254.70439.542,274.09
North Gwinnett#3 (7-AAAAAAA)8-377.5194.761.0977,337.8610,204.451,619.62237.714,205.79
Collins Hill#3 (8-AAAAAAA)5-672.9892.391.19173,294.8010,437.621,217.2887.5211,424.85
North Paulding#2 (3-AAAAAAA)9-272.2592.201.13115,874.5914,002.501,071.5471.0914,065.38

Class AAAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Thomas County Central#1 (1-AAAAAA)11-0100.2182.874.14994,454.31816,820.67749,067.25580,884.750.72
Douglas County#1 (5-AAAAAA)11-093.1285.263.44969,945.13695,780.70550,608.67220,356.363.54
Lee County#2 (1-AAAAAA)9-287.5388.522.52977,536.32301,212.83188,437.9051,412.8418.45
Hughes#2 (5-AAAAAA)9-290.6291.931.84585,658.92119,177.7887,679.5646,569.1820.47
Gainesville#1 (8-AAAAAA)11-083.8086.882.59871,624.47526,104.43159,592.2632,559.2529.71
Marist#1 (4-AAAAAA)10-181.9586.392.65937,634.48601,920.8483,401.3524,687.3039.51
Rome#1 (6-AAAAAA)10-186.0491.221.54414,341.0863,873.2442,439.2217,048.9757.65
Houston County#3 (1-AAAAAA)9-283.6789.472.03630,967.43309,342.9875,479.8115,242.4964.61
Roswell#1 (7-AAAAAA)10-178.7287.222.27850,864.15369,249.7436,892.378,294.33119.56
Woodward Academy#1 (3-AAAAAA)9-277.5488.771.53369,032.57138,012.7023,840.242,808.70355.04
Blessed Trinity#2 (7-AAAAAA)9-269.9389.781.16128,375.5326,539.881,706.5693.3110,715.77
Lanier#2 (8-AAAAAA)9-266.2789.601.17149,135.8521,149.57427.6226.9137,157.64
Sequoyah#2 (6-AAAAAA)8-366.5491.281.0330,054.872,600.88316.7811.9783,549.24
Brunswick#3 (2-AAAAAA)7-361.5989.691.0762,365.527,679.8584.223.11321,680.04
Lovejoy#4 (3-AAAAAA)7-458.5091.721.0222,463.68405.5917.780.273,741,726.53
Jonesboro#3 (3-AAAAAA)8-359.6492.631.015,545.69128.318.410.254,044,085.53

Class AAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Coffee#1 (1-AAAAA)11-095.4172.104.53977,897.79948,307.38844,494.15762,980.020.31
Cartersville#1 (7-AAAAA)11-079.9278.352.94904,496.31816,286.46136,045.0580,489.1511.42
Jefferson#1 (8-AAAAA)11-078.7879.072.65688,818.55567,214.80335,342.1359,104.1215.92
Creekside#1 (5-AAAAA)10-178.0079.722.50735,346.06456,179.60267,509.7244,053.4821.70
Ware County#2 (1-AAAAA)8-377.6281.042.27693,951.79355,480.89187,381.1829,869.2032.48
Hiram#2 (7-AAAAA)9-274.0581.611.62311,181.45212,878.6186,509.139,995.3199.05
Harris County#1 (3-AAAAA)10-167.2179.322.17889,433.24215,928.1158,054.073,438.83289.80
Dalton#3 (7-AAAAA)8-371.4182.701.39264,653.9491,920.5331,790.032,859.45348.72
Warner Robins#1 (2-AAAAA)8-369.1981.231.44306,048.2196,418.9733,243.202,404.77414.84
Mays#2 (5-AAAAA)7-469.6683.101.66619,968.7128,400.907,978.772,404.60414.87
Dutchtown#3 (2-AAAAA)6-564.6482.301.98847,150.36123,827.204,474.23862.271,158.72
Cass#4 (7-AAAAA)6-567.4283.681.40380,031.2913,505.863,011.46749.591,333.06
Jones County#2 (2-AAAAA)8-366.2583.811.0322,102.219,785.862,138.14478.782,087.62
Eastside#2 (8-AAAAA)8-363.3382.911.1595,503.6953,607.041,798.15305.373,273.67
Jenkins#4 (1-AAAAA)4-752.4282.901.16152,849.646,279.3060.033.16316,746.45
Statesboro#3 (1-AAAAA)4-751.9681.501.11110,566.763,978.47170.531.88530,619.46

Class AAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Bainbridge#1 (1-AAAA)9-284.8172.173.61783,656.52740,770.01662,537.37420,232.961.38
Benedictine#1 (3-AAAA)11-082.8875.623.11838,883.07644,953.83401,920.62226,671.803.41
Spalding#1 (2-AAAA)11-081.1776.722.74789,714.88518,549.06283,257.83146,996.965.80
Stockbridge#1 (5-AAAA)9-277.2676.622.50867,770.06389,784.61170,319.4671,296.1813.03
Perry#2 (2-AAAA)9-276.0677.251.57216,343.48179,293.58126,192.4248,227.4119.74
North Oconee#1 (8-AAAA)11-074.6577.062.21808,206.38266,401.36102,799.3636,569.0526.35
Central (Carrollton)#1 (7-AAAA)11-069.1073.202.64913,176.01579,936.45122,903.6926,343.6136.96
Troup#3 (4-AAAA)9-272.1380.701.31210,285.1274,168.5919,283.835,779.50172.03
New Hampstead#2 (3-AAAA)6-466.5976.001.77516,299.95215,190.2031,820.915,363.01185.46
LaGrange#2 (4-AAAA)9-271.1880.391.25161,116.9366,239.3017,130.274,796.00207.51
Starr's Mill#1 (4-AAAA)8-364.3174.941.71483,700.05193,601.3927,312.723,655.64272.55
Stephenson#1 (6-AAAA)9-262.5674.251.98871,465.4278,035.1728,716.053,201.52311.35
Cedartown#2 (7-AAAA)8-364.6780.041.22191,793.6222,405.513,163.71526.951,896.72
Westminster (Atlanta)#2 (6-AAAA)8-363.6780.301.15132,229.9417,497.742,124.91324.063,084.82
Lovett#3 (5-AAAA)6-551.6676.491.1086,823.9911,271.96358.2911.7085,470.48
Luella#2 (5-AAAA)6-548.7076.221.13128,534.581,901.25158.553.65274,044.34

Class AAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Calvary Day#1 (3-AAA)11-081.9467.623.77950,799.24826,888.64526,290.35469,686.431.13
Cedar Grove#1 (5-AAA)6-579.2368.593.37982,941.70729,211.19355,772.36304,776.212.28
Morgan County#1 (4-AAA)10-168.0867.722.50660,463.41447,314.09328,674.1367,418.6213.83
Mary Persons#1 (2-AAA)10-171.9172.462.26862,360.44259,575.7678,174.1355,765.4116.93
Lumpkin County#1 (7-AAA)11-063.9267.632.27731,391.36314,850.09197,557.7427,059.1935.96
Carver (Columbus)#1 (1-AAA)8-362.5767.032.31645,975.65449,382.23191,218.0822,829.8842.80
Stephens County#1 (8-AAA)10-167.2972.062.12904,012.25156,235.4637,510.0822,141.8244.16
Savannah Christian#2 (3-AAA)9-264.4169.971.64339,536.59178,448.90108,287.7315,586.5163.16
Monroe Area#3 (8-AAA)7-458.7667.792.29876,302.67322,469.5585,818.796,834.81145.31
Upson-Lee#2 (2-AAA)9-259.4268.691.64354,024.35216,607.2863,542.005,434.67183.00
Oconee County#2 (8-AAA)5-657.5069.871.35268,608.6459,386.9124,192.721,677.33595.19
Thomasville#3 (1-AAA)6-559.5475.641.0649,200.7613,894.001,303.38477.012,095.39
Crisp County#2 (1-AAA)7-458.6976.241.15137,639.5610,117.93815.39279.653,574.92
Wesleyan#2 (7-AAA)8-350.7575.291.1095,987.752,981.91106.4117.9755,632.17
Gilmer#4 (7-AAA)7-444.5469.131.14123,697.3311,540.93708.8110.9691,230.00
Bremen#2 (6-AAA)9-247.9176.041.0217,058.301,095.1127.893.52283,893.13

Class AA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Appling County#3 (3-AA)9-272.9465.313.05760,808.71627,985.62411,554.20254,321.342.93
Pierce County#1 (3-AA)10-170.5462.243.38925,395.27754,369.01449,577.78253,266.942.95
Callaway#1 (5-AA)8-269.4961.633.41952,162.95793,820.79434,011.62231,579.543.32
Rockmart#1 (7-AA)9-265.9264.692.51811,443.83418,311.39196,814.8281,410.0611.28
Toombs County#2 (3-AA)10-167.9267.132.10551,358.30311,914.85158,695.3374,820.2412.37
Thomson#1 (4-AA)10-164.4866.571.82448,641.70232,294.15100,358.3237,491.3625.67
Cook#1 (1-AA)9-261.7566.421.48239,191.29155,676.8061,590.4418,632.7052.67
Fellowship Christian#1 (8-AA)9-259.7465.082.14844,906.38212,720.0265,284.2017,791.7255.21
Columbia#2 (5-AA)8-360.2965.582.05778,259.44198,181.7161,018.5316,342.0860.19
Fitzgerald#2 (1-AA)8-359.6666.362.02785,324.35177,839.8844,754.2012,120.1081.51
Union County#2 (8-AA)8-355.7667.841.24188,556.1737,479.617,877.781,398.67713.96
Laney#2 (4-AA)8-2-151.7567.961.1074,604.7321,860.472,910.05374.472,669.47
North Cobb Christian#1 (6-AA)9-248.3065.891.24221,740.5618,155.872,090.57172.375,800.41
Spencer#1 (2-AA)8-347.3366.191.24214,675.6518,515.401,754.59141.167,083.16
North Murray#2 (7-AA)8-347.6667.761.17155,093.6211,050.50984.9482.1612,169.86
Model#3 (7-AA)7-346.8467.731.0647,837.059,823.92722.6355.0918,150.77

Class A Public

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Prince Avenue Christian#1 (5-A Division I)10-171.3454.694.05965,999.34860,063.65657,140.71569,219.180.76
Commerce#1 (8-A Division I)10-163.4956.493.22962,793.42789,888.05270,485.51192,872.444.18
Trion#1 (7-A Division I)11-057.1058.212.26613,419.64380,141.26216,215.1948,674.1819.54
Rabun County#3 (8-A Division I)8-357.1458.522.47824,495.13400,167.83204,045.4746,103.4620.69
Dublin#2 (2-A Division I)9-256.8559.332.00506,794.61300,347.12157,698.3834,721.3827.80
Brooks County#1 (1-A Division I)6-554.8758.671.92493,205.39267,390.12135,111.4524,949.2739.08
Swainsboro#3 (2-A Division I)9-255.8559.851.95570,694.13246,753.43114,084.8223,006.4742.47
Bleckley County#1 (2-A Division I)9-255.8060.641.96774,892.79118,233.8341,728.0820,610.5747.52
Elbert County#2 (8-A Division I)9-255.0959.831.71386,580.36207,912.1199,122.0818,667.6352.57
Bryan County#1 (3-A Division I)10-152.5960.042.04810,452.38188,628.9126,704.6510,629.0193.08
Lamar County#1 (4-A Division I)9-251.7758.901.67429,305.87165,193.2067,589.779,316.67106.33
Irwin County#2 (1-A Division I)6-547.4763.381.24225,107.2113,225.462,014.97528.511,891.11
Whitefield Academy#1 (6-A Division I)6-542.7758.991.21175,504.8732,094.936,132.84330.003,029.29
Mount Vernon#2 (6-A Division I)8-345.7963.501.0434,000.668,477.061,101.89247.894,033.02
Pelham#3 (1-A Division I)5-642.4962.591.20189,547.6214,526.49622.08101.239,877.40
Dade County#2 (7-A Division I)6-538.7062.561.0437,206.586,956.56202.1122.1045,249.15

Class A Division II

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Schley County#1 (6-A Division II)10-066.9848.834.24945,925.42900,483.16758,044.47630,845.160.59
Clinch County#1 (2-A Division II)10-155.3552.382.99945,863.11552,705.97383,942.15107,355.688.31
Manchester#2 (6-A Division II)8-255.7154.292.68883,350.19426,888.60288,045.6082,765.5911.08
Bowdon#1 (7-A Division II)9-255.4055.902.08527,176.13394,970.67101,483.3656,180.9016.80
Greene County#2 (8-A Division II)10-156.2757.471.95472,823.87344,360.8483,319.3548,225.0219.74
Macon County#3 (6-A Division II)9-252.2755.802.05563,734.26339,869.24122,993.3126,874.9136.21
Portal#1 (3-A Division II)8-348.4254.042.10672,958.19311,970.43101,607.2015,860.6462.05
Aquinas#1 (8-A Division II)9-248.4354.791.77436,265.74243,017.4079,252.6112,389.2979.71
Jenkins County#2 (3-A Division II)10-149.1857.161.76570,675.84162,021.2522,745.498,480.51116.92
Dooly County#1 (4-A Division II)7-445.1156.161.54429,324.1698,647.2311,229.023,017.72330.38
Early County#1 (1-A Division II)7-443.8455.401.67605,255.4948,263.5412,509.343,005.06331.77
Telfair County#2 (4-A Division II)8-244.2855.841.45327,041.81105,142.9420,331.952,147.08464.75
Lincoln County#3 (8-A Division II)7-445.3957.881.0954,074.5828,953.396,809.861,874.30532.53
Emanuel County Institute#3 (3-A Division II)6-542.1057.291.42394,744.5122,299.903,859.10790.161,264.57
Johnson County#1 (5-A Division II)8-337.4455.911.14116,649.8115,219.253,169.16165.106,055.98
Seminole County#2 (1-A Division II)7-433.7756.841.0654,136.895,186.18658.0322.8743,719.11

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

More Stories