Maxwell playoff projections heading into Quarterfinals
Below are the current Maxwell Ratings’ playoff projections for each class in the GHSA.
The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2022 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 iterations.
While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.
Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by 1) region record, 2) head to head, 3) point differential, 4) classification record, and 5) random tie breaker.
Class AAAAAAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mill Creek | #2 (8-AAAAAAA) | 11-1 | 97.54 | 88.11 | 3.93 | 1,000,000.00 | 850,313.55 | 672,863.31 | 411,166.79 | 1.43 |
| Colquitt County | #1 (1-AAAAAAA) | 12-0 | 94.94 | 88.88 | 3.68 | 1,000,000.00 | 877,721.82 | 517,972.81 | 279,538.89 | 2.58 |
| Carrollton | #1 (2-AAAAAAA) | 12-0 | 93.85 | 91.33 | 3.23 | 1,000,000.00 | 693,596.98 | 357,793.28 | 182,823.25 | 4.47 |
| Milton | #1 (6-AAAAAAA) | 9-3 | 85.83 | 90.40 | 2.87 | 1,000,000.00 | 630,651.39 | 189,081.38 | 54,538.60 | 17.34 |
| Walton | #2 (5-AAAAAAA) | 10-2 | 88.92 | 94.90 | 2.45 | 1,000,000.00 | 306,403.02 | 102,716.23 | 39,596.92 | 24.25 |
| Grayson | #1 (4-AAAAAAA) | 10-2 | 81.32 | 91.37 | 2.46 | 1,000,000.00 | 369,348.61 | 77,237.60 | 15,010.76 | 65.62 |
| Westlake | #2 (2-AAAAAAA) | 9-3 | 82.89 | 93.13 | 2.22 | 1,000,000.00 | 149,686.45 | 60,817.71 | 13,630.65 | 72.36 |
| North Gwinnett | #1 (7-AAAAAAA) | 10-2 | 78.32 | 93.45 | 2.15 | 1,000,000.00 | 122,278.18 | 21,517.68 | 3,694.15 | 269.70 |
Class AAAAAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hughes | #1 (5-AAAAAA) | 12-0 | 96.64 | 85.08 | 3.98 | 1,000,000.00 | 833,442.62 | 655,680.46 | 492,774.39 | 1.03 |
| Thomas County Central | #1 (1-AAAAAA) | 12-0 | 90.38 | 86.97 | 3.35 | 1,000,000.00 | 661,779.43 | 480,610.26 | 206,459.72 | 3.84 |
| Rome | #1 (6-AAAAAA) | 11-1 | 87.32 | 87.33 | 3.15 | 1,000,000.00 | 785,127.02 | 244,445.70 | 124,893.50 | 7.01 |
| Gainesville | #1 (8-AAAAAA) | 12-0 | 84.02 | 86.91 | 3.10 | 1,000,000.00 | 743,774.23 | 278,108.99 | 76,831.27 | 12.02 |
| Roswell | #1 (7-AAAAAA) | 11-1 | 84.72 | 88.98 | 2.59 | 1,000,000.00 | 338,220.57 | 196,755.46 | 57,334.67 | 16.44 |
| Woodward Academy | #1 (3-AAAAAA) | 11-1 | 83.05 | 90.44 | 2.27 | 1,000,000.00 | 166,557.38 | 73,810.97 | 28,916.80 | 33.58 |
| Houston County | #4 (1-AAAAAA) | 10-2 | 77.00 | 89.95 | 2.31 | 1,000,000.00 | 256,225.77 | 44,525.29 | 6,746.84 | 147.22 |
| Marist | #1 (4-AAAAAA) | 10-2 | 76.39 | 89.87 | 2.25 | 1,000,000.00 | 214,872.98 | 26,062.87 | 6,042.81 | 164.49 |
Class AAAAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ware County | #1 (1-AAAAA) | 11-0 | 87.73 | 73.04 | 4.25 | 1,000,000.00 | 864,960.56 | 792,524.83 | 595,184.93 | 0.68 |
| Creekside | #1 (5-AAAAA) | 10-2 | 79.64 | 76.46 | 3.52 | 1,000,000.00 | 815,411.71 | 514,498.80 | 193,746.42 | 4.16 |
| Cartersville | #2 (7-AAAAA) | 11-1 | 79.00 | 79.20 | 3.15 | 1,000,000.00 | 689,149.31 | 335,090.88 | 121,234.62 | 7.25 |
| Calhoun | #1 (7-AAAAA) | 9-3 | 72.07 | 79.83 | 2.25 | 1,000,000.00 | 135,039.44 | 86,361.57 | 28,545.95 | 34.03 |
| Dutchtown | #1 (2-AAAAA) | 11-1 | 69.21 | 77.77 | 2.85 | 1,000,000.00 | 720,410.27 | 102,914.33 | 27,014.49 | 36.02 |
| Coffee | #2 (1-AAAAA) | 10-2 | 72.28 | 81.06 | 2.43 | 1,000,000.00 | 310,850.69 | 97,124.02 | 22,090.15 | 44.27 |
| Warner Robins | #2 (2-AAAAA) | 8-4 | 69.08 | 81.19 | 2.25 | 1,000,000.00 | 184,588.29 | 53,286.30 | 9,432.74 | 105.01 |
| Mays | #2 (5-AAAAA) | 8-4 | 63.20 | 80.17 | 2.30 | 1,000,000.00 | 279,589.73 | 18,199.27 | 2,750.70 | 362.54 |
Class AAAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedartown | #1 (7-AAAA) | 12-0 | 88.24 | 78.62 | 3.83 | 1,000,000.00 | 814,442.08 | 602,112.21 | 410,481.27 | 1.44 |
| Benedictine | #1 (3-AAAA) | 10-2 | 84.43 | 75.08 | 4.01 | 1,000,000.00 | 872,423.33 | 766,686.05 | 374,411.65 | 1.67 |
| North Oconee | #1 (8-AAAA) | 12-0 | 81.15 | 80.05 | 3.24 | 1,000,000.00 | 799,281.14 | 293,426.52 | 147,190.71 | 5.79 |
| Bainbridge | #1 (1-AAAA) | 8-4 | 75.76 | 83.38 | 2.29 | 1,000,000.00 | 185,557.92 | 76,455.89 | 28,111.96 | 34.57 |
| Troup | #1 (4-AAAA) | 11-1 | 69.37 | 79.28 | 2.83 | 1,000,000.00 | 679,584.46 | 131,571.11 | 20,133.70 | 48.67 |
| Stockbridge | #1 (5-AAAA) | 10-2 | 68.21 | 80.70 | 2.20 | 1,000,000.00 | 127,576.67 | 66,881.15 | 9,149.76 | 108.29 |
| Wayne County | #2 (3-AAAA) | 10-2 | 71.46 | 84.35 | 2.24 | 1,000,000.00 | 200,718.86 | 28,005.39 | 7,699.98 | 128.87 |
| Holy Innocents | #1 (6-AAAA) | 9-3 | 63.03 | 80.11 | 2.36 | 1,000,000.00 | 320,415.54 | 34,861.69 | 2,820.97 | 353.49 |
Class AAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedar Grove | #1 (5-AAA) | 9-2 | 87.55 | 71.08 | 4.26 | 1,000,000.00 | 830,353.65 | 770,467.15 | 656,624.63 | 0.52 |
| Sandy Creek | #2 (5-AAA) | 10-2 | 75.90 | 74.47 | 3.38 | 1,000,000.00 | 712,084.01 | 513,127.57 | 153,163.47 | 5.53 |
| Calvary Day | #1 (3-AAA) | 11-0 | 74.16 | 77.76 | 2.36 | 1,000,000.00 | 169,646.35 | 123,159.01 | 68,538.75 | 13.59 |
| Carver (Atlanta) | #3 (5-AAA) | 8-3 | 69.73 | 76.83 | 2.77 | 1,000,000.00 | 548,597.48 | 184,423.92 | 34,493.41 | 27.99 |
| Oconee County | #3 (8-AAA) | 8-4 | 69.38 | 77.58 | 2.64 | 1,000,000.00 | 542,381.75 | 66,450.65 | 28,145.01 | 34.53 |
| Savannah Christian | #2 (3-AAA) | 11-1 | 68.26 | 76.85 | 2.46 | 1,000,000.00 | 287,915.99 | 146,979.77 | 24,331.15 | 40.10 |
| Thomasville | #1 (1-AAA) | 9-3 | 66.11 | 75.48 | 2.63 | 1,000,000.00 | 451,402.52 | 155,468.73 | 21,371.76 | 45.79 |
| Carver (Columbus) | #2 (1-AAA) | 9-2 | 65.98 | 77.48 | 2.51 | 1,000,000.00 | 457,618.25 | 39,923.19 | 13,331.82 | 74.01 |
Class AA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fitzgerald | #1 (1-AA) | 12-0 | 72.51 | 67.56 | 3.26 | 1,000,000.00 | 597,653.88 | 401,476.72 | 261,884.67 | 2.82 |
| Appling County | #1 (3-AA) | 10-1 | 69.34 | 65.64 | 3.46 | 1,000,000.00 | 775,164.98 | 466,999.89 | 219,271.21 | 3.56 |
| Pierce County | #2 (3-AA) | 11-1 | 70.38 | 68.08 | 3.21 | 1,000,000.00 | 722,188.42 | 303,149.92 | 180,210.10 | 4.55 |
| Rockmart | #1 (7-AA) | 10-2 | 69.17 | 68.88 | 2.77 | 1,000,000.00 | 402,346.12 | 234,523.79 | 131,424.53 | 6.61 |
| Thomson | #1 (4-AA) | 11-1 | 66.89 | 67.45 | 2.97 | 1,000,000.00 | 574,127.78 | 283,399.02 | 113,390.64 | 7.82 |
| South Atlanta | #1 (6-AA) | 11-0 | 64.37 | 68.21 | 2.67 | 1,000,000.00 | 425,872.22 | 180,641.26 | 60,129.56 | 15.63 |
| Fellowship Christian | #1 (8-AA) | 9-3 | 60.35 | 68.98 | 2.36 | 1,000,000.00 | 277,811.58 | 60,849.57 | 19,207.27 | 51.06 |
| Callaway | #1 (5-AA) | 9-3 | 58.90 | 68.62 | 2.31 | 1,000,000.00 | 224,835.02 | 68,959.84 | 14,482.02 | 68.05 |
Class A Public
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irwin County | #1 (1-A Division I) | 10-1 | 78.61 | 68.84 | 4.00 | 1,000,000.00 | 969,053.04 | 633,981.58 | 392,129.84 | 1.55 |
| Prince Avenue Christian | #1 (5-A Division I) | 11-0 | 77.32 | 67.88 | 4.02 | 1,000,000.00 | 870,544.20 | 755,486.71 | 391,476.62 | 1.55 |
| Swainsboro | #1 (2-A Division I) | 11-0 | 74.47 | 74.71 | 2.95 | 1,000,000.00 | 592,237.44 | 235,332.55 | 120,056.38 | 7.33 |
| Rabun County | #1 (8-A Division I) | 12-0 | 71.32 | 75.68 | 2.59 | 1,000,000.00 | 407,762.56 | 128,888.25 | 55,224.01 | 17.11 |
| Bleckley County | #3 (2-A Division I) | 10-2 | 64.86 | 73.15 | 2.78 | 1,000,000.00 | 628,063.57 | 128,353.48 | 26,089.96 | 37.33 |
| Metter | #1 (3-A Division I) | 9-3 | 61.24 | 73.34 | 2.20 | 1,000,000.00 | 129,455.80 | 64,679.38 | 9,288.35 | 106.66 |
| St. Francis | #1 (6-A Division I) | 9-3 | 58.47 | 72.73 | 2.43 | 1,000,000.00 | 371,936.43 | 51,480.43 | 5,578.30 | 178.27 |
| Mount Pisgah Christian | #2 (6-A Division I) | 9-3 | 51.53 | 76.94 | 2.03 | 1,000,000.00 | 30,946.96 | 1,797.62 | 156.54 | 6,387.31 |
Class A Division II
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowdon | #1 (7-A Division II) | 11-1 | 59.00 | 49.74 | 3.67 | 1,000,000.00 | 667,729.70 | 592,958.42 | 406,453.41 | 1.46 |
| Schley County | #1 (6-A Division II) | 10-2 | 54.50 | 50.12 | 3.51 | 1,000,000.00 | 786,016.96 | 491,543.86 | 234,732.07 | 3.26 |
| Early County | #1 (1-A Division II) | 9-3 | 53.11 | 52.44 | 2.74 | 1,000,000.00 | 332,270.30 | 265,305.06 | 139,158.03 | 6.19 |
| Johnson County | #1 (5-A Division II) | 12-0 | 51.78 | 51.80 | 3.06 | 1,000,000.00 | 632,046.38 | 306,990.21 | 124,644.11 | 7.02 |
| Clinch County | #2 (2-A Division II) | 10-2 | 49.19 | 54.44 | 2.55 | 1,000,000.00 | 367,953.62 | 133,630.52 | 45,668.36 | 20.90 |
| Lincoln County | #1 (8-A Division II) | 9-2 | 42.85 | 51.06 | 2.73 | 1,000,000.00 | 610,304.97 | 98,736.88 | 24,998.77 | 39.00 |
| Wilcox County | #1 (4-A Division II) | 9-3 | 43.53 | 53.42 | 2.30 | 1,000,000.00 | 213,983.04 | 67,835.42 | 15,070.92 | 65.35 |
| Dooly County | #3 (4-A Division II) | 7-5 | 41.04 | 52.96 | 2.44 | 1,000,000.00 | 389,695.03 | 42,999.64 | 9,274.33 | 106.82 |
