The NFL will wrap up the regular season on Sunday but the playoffs field already is coming into focus. All six AFC slots have been claimed, with seeding to be determined, while just two of six NFC berths remained up for grabs after Sunday’s games.
The Falcons earned a playoff spot by winning the NFC South. If the Falcons beat the Saints on Sunday at the Georgia Dome, they would almost certainly capture the No. 2 seed behind the Cowboys. If the Lions lose to the Cowboys late Monday night or to Green Bay on Sunday, the Falcons would be guaranteed the No. 2 seed with a victory over the Saints.
With the playoff field nearly set, here’s a closer look at the favorites, contenders and long shots from each conference.
THE FAVORITES
NFC
Cowboys (12-2 before playing Monday night; clinched NFC East title, first-round bye and home field through playoffs)
Why they can win it all: The Cowboys have the best offense outside of Atlanta and the most balanced attack anywhere. They've got an MVP candidate, running back Ezekiel Elliott, and a powerful offensive line. They've got a quarterback, Dak Prescott, who can improvise when plays break down. And they clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs after just 14 games.
Why they can't win it all: Prescott hasn't played as well over the second half of the season. He's a rookie, and so is Elliott. The defense is vulnerable against the pass and that could be a problem when the path to the Super Bowl includes plenty of opponents who can air it out. That includes the New York Giants, who beat the Cowboys in both meetings.
AFC
Patriots (13-2; clinched AFC East title, first-round bye)
Why they can win it all: They are the clear favorites, and they've done it before. The Bill Belichick/Tom Brady combination has won four Super Bowl championships in six appearances in the title game. No doubt they are motivated to do it again after the NFL suspended Brady for four games this season for his involvement in the so-called "Deflategate" cheating scandal.
Why they can't win it all: Brady is playing at an MVP level but his most dynamic playmaker, tight end Rob Gronkowski, is out for the season with a back injury. Brady has a history of doing more with less but if the Patriots struggle to score their defense may not be good enough to carry them.
THE CONTENDERS
NFC
Falcons (10-5; clinched NFC South title)
Why they can win it all: The Falcons have been tested by a tough schedule and came out looking good. Even good defensive teams have a tough time stopping them — they've got so many options that it's hard for foes to account for them all. The improving defense suddenly is getting turnovers in bunches and has fashioned a legitimate pass rush.
Why they can't win it all: That defensive improvement has come against bad-to-middling offensive teams — that doesn't describe Dallas and New England. Cornerback Desmond Trufant, who probably is the best defender, is on injured reserve. The specter of an inexplicable, backbreaking interception by Matt Ryan always hangs over this team.
Seahawks (9-5-1, clinched NFC West title)
Why they can win it all: They still have a lot of players that won the Super Bowl during the 2013 season and the NFC Championship in 2014. The Seahawks have probably the best defense in the NFC. Quarterback Russell Wilson appears to have regained his mobility after injuries slowed him earlier in the season.
Why they can't win it all: They are much, much better at home than on the road. They just lost at home to the Cardinals when the defense couldn't make a stop late. The offense is mediocre.
AFC
Chiefs (11-4, clinched playoff berth)
Why they can win it all: The Chiefs seem to have some good vibes after winning several games in improbable fashion this season. They've beaten the Raiders twice and won at the Georgia Dome. They still have a chance to get some home games.
Why they can't win it all: Their home field's reputation took a hit when the Buccaneers won there in November and the Titans did it in December. Kansas City's offense is limited. The defense relies heavily on forcing turnovers and isn't very good against the run.
Steelers (10-5, clinched AFC North title)
Why they can win it all: Now that Oakland's Derek Carr is out for the season, Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger is the second-best QB in the AFC field. They've won six in a row. They blew out the Chiefs in October.
Why they can't win it all: Pittsburgh's victory over the Chiefs is one of just two against sure-fire playoff teams (the Steelers also beat the Giants). The Steelers are wildly inconsistent from week-to-week. Pittsburgh hasn't made it as far as the AFC Championship game since the 2010 season.
THE LONG SHOTS
NFC
Giants (10-5, clinched playoff berth)
Why they can win it all: The Giants have the best defense is the NFC and they beat the Cowboys twice.
Why they can't win it all: Quarterback Eli Manning tends to be boom-or-bust in big moments and star wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. can be erratic. The Giants flopped at the Eagles last week to blow a chance for home-field advantage.
Lions (9-5 before playing Monday night)
Why they can win it all: Detroit is another team that has excelled with pulling out victories late.
Why they can't win it all: If the Lions lost to the Cowboys late Monday, they'd need to beat the Packers on Sunday to be assured of a playoff berth. If they make it, their luck is likely to run out because the defense is bad.
Packers (9-6)
Why they can win it all: Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback and they've won five in a row.
Why they can't win it all: To be assured of a playoff berth, the Packers have to win at Detroit on Sunday. Rodgers doesn't have a running game.
Redskins (8-6-1)
Why they can win at all: Washington has a good offense that takes care of the ball.
Why they can't win it all: Just to make the playoffs, Washington needs to beat the Giants on Sunday and get a lot of favorable results elsewhere. The Redskins have more bad losses than impressive victories.
AFC
Raiders (12-3, clinched playoff berth)
Why they can win at all: Oakland's offense has been elite and the defense is improving.
Why they can't win at all: Quarterback Derek Carr sustained a fractured leg on Saturday, instantly dropping the Raiders from contenders to long shots.
Texans (9-6, clinched AFC South title)
Why they can win it all: They are in the playoffs because they won the AFC South.
Why they can't win it all: They are the only one of eight NFL division champs to be outscored through 15 games with a net of minus-42 points.
Dolphins (10-5, clinched playoff spot)
Why they can win it all: The Dolphins have won nine of their past 10 games, including four road wins, and gave a good effort while losing at New England in Week 2.
Why they can't win it all: Their offense is prone to flopping and that Patriots game was before Tom Brady returned.
