The preconceived notion is that the Power Five conferences are better than the Group of Five, and the best Power Five conference is the SEC. So, No. 7 Auburn should handle No. 12 Central Florida easily ... right? In the words of College GameDay host Lee Corso, “Not so fast!”
Here are five reasons why the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl will be closer than experts think:
1. Battle of the best
Central Florida’s No. 1 scoring offense faces off against Auburn's No. 9 scoring defense. Auburn’s stingy defense gives up 17.3 points per game, while the Knights’ potent offense puts up 49.4 points per game. The Tigers didn't allow more than 28 points in a game this season, including holding eight opponents under 17 points. And on the flip side, the Knights never scored less than 31, including scoring more than 49 seven times. Something must give on New Year’s Day.
2. Don’t let the title fool you
Since the creation of the College Football Playoff, the Group of Five representative is 2-1 in New Year’s Six games against Power Five competition. No. 21 Boise State defeated No. 12 Arizona 38-30 in the 2014 Fiesta Bowl and No. 18 Houston defeated No. 9 Florida State 38-24 in the 2015 Peach Bowl. Last year’s Group of Five representative No. 15 Western Michigan played a tight contest with No. 8 Wisconsin before losing 24-16 in the Cotton Bowl.
3. Central Florida has done it before
Dating to the BCS era, Central Florida is no stranger to playing on this big of a stage as an underdog. To cap off the 2014 season, the Knights entered the Fiesta Bowl as 16.5-point underdogs. Led by now-Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles, the No. 15 Knights defeated No. 6 Baylor 52-42. Central Florida opened as a 10-point underdog to Auburn in this year’s Peach Bowl.
4. Knights in shining armor
Central Florida is undefeated for a reason. In addition to leading the country in scoring, coach Scott Frost’s Knights rank top five in the nation in three additional categories. Quarterback McKenzie Milton boasts the nation’s second-best passing efficiency (184.4), and ninth-best yards per game average (316.3). The Knights’ total offense ranks fifth-best in the country at 540.4 yards per game, and their turnover margin (plus-15) is good enough for No. 2 in the country. Auburn’s vaunted defense will have its hands full trying to keep Central Florida’s offense in check.
5. History tends to repeat itself
The Peach Bowl is one of the more competitive bowl games in the history of college football. In its 49 games, the bowl has recorded 13 games decided by a field goal or less and five one-point games. Fifty-three percent of the games (26 of 49) have been decided by a touchdown or less.
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