A team from this state was playing under a new coach and wasn’t expected to do much. It surprised us. It beat the best team in its conference. It beat a team ranked No. 3 in the land. As Selection Sunday neared, that local crew became a national Talking Point: Would the earnest overachiever be granted an NCAA at-large bid?
Yes, this description could describe Georgia Tech in the year 2017, but the team in question was Georgia in 2004. In Year 1 under Dennis Felton, the Bulldogs beat Kentucky twice, and the Wildcats would be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. They beat Georgia Tech, which would reach the title game. They finished the regular season 16-13. Their RPI was 56. They didn’t get in.
And now we turn to these latter-day Yellow Jackets, who hold four victories over teams with an RPI of 26 or better — North Carolina, Florida State, VCU and Notre Dame. They're 7-7 in ACC play, 16-11 overall. They should go no worse than 2-2 before the conference tournament commences in Brooklyn. On Jan. 28, Notre Dame's Mike Brey called them an NCAA tournament team. Not surprisingly, Tech coach Josh Pastner agreed. Still, the In/Out issue regarding this season's feel-good gang remains a hairline call.
Tech's RPI is 76. The lowest RPI for an at-large invitee was New Mexico in 1999 at 74. Since the formula was recalibrated in 2004, the lowest RPI to gain at-large admittance was Syracuse at 71 last year. ESPN's Joe Lunardi has Tech as his last team in; CBS' Jerry Palm and USA Today's Shelby Mast have the Jackets among their first teams out.
The NCAA committee has long insisted that it doesn’t just consider RPI. Still, no one who was following college basketball in 2001 will forget the shock of seeing Georgia — which had 16 wins, fewest ever for an at-large invitee, and 14 losses, the most ever — not only placed in the bracket but handed a No. 8 seed. Why? Because the Bulldogs’ RPI was 31.
There are more metrics for committee consideration now, but they're not overly favorable for Tech. The Jackets are ranked 96th in ESPN's Basketball Power Index. They're 76th in Ken Pomeroy's much-perused ratings. They're 73rd in the LRMC Ratings, which are the product of Dr. Joel Sokol, a professor at, er, the Georgia Institute of Technology.
It’s not hard to make a case for Tech as NCAA-worthy: The Jackets have more good victories than any bubble team. But if they lose at Notre Dame and Syracuse — teams they narrowly beat at McCamish Pavilion — and drop their first ACC tournament game, they’ll be 18-14 on Selection Sunday. Given their RPI, that would cut it close. Maybe too close.
As we saw with Georgia in 2004, the committee doesn’t care where you were picked to finish. The committee works off data, and data can differ from what our eyeballs tell us. Just going by numbers, Georgia still outranks Tech — though Georgia, which has beaten nobody but Tech, has seen its NCAA chances reduced to wishin’ and hopin’.
Georgia has an RPI of 56. It’s 51st per Pomeroy, 50th via LRMC. The Bulldogs are also 0-6 against the SEC’s three best teams, and they’ve just lost Yante Maten, their best player, to a knee sprain. Depending on the grade of sprain, the recovery time (according to Dr. Google) is two to six weeks. It’s possible Maten won’t play again this season. Note: The committee takes injuries into account.
After Saturday's breathless victory in Athens, Kentucky coach John Calipari launched a meandering defense of Mark Fox's coaching — it ended with him saying, "Fake media!" — not that Fox's acumen has ever been an issue. His record is another matter. He's 8-37 against ranked opponents. Should Georgia miss the NCAA again, his teams will have qualified twice in eight seasons. That's a fairly substantial sample size.
Mark Gottfried was just fired by North Carolina State after making the Big Dance four times over five completed seasons and reaching the Sweet 16 twice. In the small-world department, Fox was mentioned as a candidate for the State job in 2011 but was handed a contract extension in Athens. (He has since had another.)
The odd part about Calipari’s rant was that Fox occupies the coolest of seats. There’s no real pressure, internally or externally, for the Bulldogs to fire him. (At any other Power 5 school, there would be.) I also consider Fox a good coach; I just can’t understand how a good coach never wins a game of consequence.
Georgia has become a sad story. What should have been a sweet season has gone sour. As for Tech: Were giddiness an NCAA tournament consideration, it’d be a No. 1 seed. Still, for all the mountains moved by Pastner and his merry men, there’s work to do.
But there is this: That Syracuse team that slipped into the tournament with an RPI of 71? It made the Final Four.
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