On the day he took ownership of the Hawks, Tony Ressler said: “What was working was Bud, Wilcox and Koonin. I want to keep that working.” Wall Street folks would call that an example of recency bias. I’d call it a rookie mistake.
It was an easy one to make: A guy from L.A. with no basketball background buys a franchise coming off its most successful regular season ever. He believes what he beholds — and what he’s told by those in place, who’d like to keep their jobs. But actions, however well-intentioned, have consequences. Ressler’s first act as owner has undone his purchase.
Mike Budenholzer had no background as a shaper of franchises: A career assistant, he’d been a head coach for two seasons. Wes Wilcox was bumped up to interim general manager only because the sitting GM was in the process of being unseated. Steve Koonin, a promotions guy, arrived just in time to promote the winningest Hawks team ever.
What happened in 2014-15 was reality, yes, but not reality in its fullness. Nobody in Atlanta had much noticed the Hawks since the late ’80s. That 60-win team, while ably cultivated by Budenholzer, was assembled by Danny Ferry. It would have been awkward for a new owner’s first move to have been the re-introduction of a tainted GM, but Ressler’s chosen path wasn’t just the one of least resistance. It was a road to nowhere.
Rumors have swirled for months in basketball circles that the Hawks would redo their front office this offseason. In a conversation with AJC reporters 12 days ago, Ressler said he anticipated no changes and offered this: “I love the intellect, the competitiveness and the commitment to win of both Bud and Wes.”
On Wednesday, ESPN reported that Wilcox and the Hawks would "part ways." The team then released this statement: "Hawks leadership is undergoing a period of evaluation and looking at how basketball operations works best. There are no changes to report at this time and any reports indicating otherwise are inaccurate."
(Me, I’d say the three biggest words among those 32 were “at this time.” But maybe that’s just me.)
“Rock stars” was what Ressler called Budenholzer and Koonin two years ago. Today we’d label that band a one-hit wonder, the hit having been written by Ferry. The Hawks won 48 games the next season, 43 this time. They played for the Eastern Conference title in 2015; they’ve won one playoff series since. They’ve gone from being very good to slipping into mediocrity, and the slide could well deepen.
The key offseason question: Will the Hawks keep Paul Millsap? He’s an excellent player. He’s also 32. He’ll want a five-year contract to stay, which would mean the Hawks will be paying him maximum money when he’s 37. That sort of deal — Joe Johnson’s most notably — was what Ferry worked wonders to shed. Such shedding made those 60 wins possible.
The Hawks faced a similar dilemma last summer with Al Horford. If you listen closely, you’ll hear Hawks insiders say they’re confident Millsap wants to stay. They said the same about Horford. The Hawks tried to finesse Horford’s money — offering four seasons, not the allowed five — and ticked him off. He now works for the team that finished first in the East.
Ressler’s dream team didn’t just botch the re-upping of Horford and overpay to keep Kent Bazemore, role player. It also bought Dwight Howard, who didn’t fit specifications, for $70.5 million over three seasons. Czar of basketball Budenholzer is a coach, and coaches — even those versed in floor spacing — are fascinated by the notion of a good big man, which not many coaches have. The problem: Howard is no longer anything special.
The Hawks ranked 27th in offensive efficiency this season — they were sixth two years ago — because Howard clogs the lane. Come the postseason, Budenholzer acknowledged the obvious: His team was better without his big man. Howard worked zero fourth-quarter minutes in Game 2 against Washington; he worked two in Game 6.
Oh, and there’s this: Howard has next to no trade value. ESPN’s Kevin Arnovitz reports that he might fetch a second-round pick and cap relief. Jeff Teague brought more than that.
The Teague trade stands as this front office’s best move. It made space for Dennis Schroder, who needed to play, and yielded Taurean Prince, who became a starter as a rookie. Tim Hardaway Jr., who’s 25, has developed into a player. (Budenholzer is an ace at player development.) The Hawks have gotten younger, which had to happen, but they’re apparently stuck with Howard, who’s 31. If they retain Millsap, they’ll be paying even bigger money to someone even older.
For all the promise of Schroder and Prince and Hardaway, can we say with confidence that the Hawks will be any better next season if they keep Millsap? The alternative, now as then, is letting an All-Star leave for nothing, and isn’t that the last thing you’d want?
Therein we see the depth of the Hawks’ failure. They’re not good enough, and they have no clear path upward. The sagacious roster management practiced by Ferry has given way to a series of choices that will leave them status quo at best and maybe much worse.
Let’s say Ressler does change GMs. Would any difference-making exec want to work here without having GM-level say? Say Ressler seeks to remove the “czar” part of Budenholzer’s job description. With his power lessened, would he stay as coach? Isn’t Budenholzer’s coaching the best thing the Hawks have going for them? And if Ressler tries to run things himself … well, Katy bar the door.
What appeared to be working in 2015 no longer is. Appearances deceived. Tony Ressler got fooled. Now he’s trying to sort things out. Good luck with that.
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