Something the Braves do well — sell high
Maybe you’re mad because the Braves are losing. Maybe you’re ticked because they traded all your favorite players. Maybe you believe the guys running the Braves can’t tie their shoes, let alone rebuild a razed organization. Maybe you’re wrong.
Not about the losing — that’s a cold fact. But check the numbers compiled this season by the seven biggest names dispatched by John Coppolella and John Hart.
Jason Heyward, Cubs: Batting .211 with no homers and 13 RBIs; OPS+ of 58; WAR value of minus-0.1.
Evan Gattis, Astros: Batting .203 with one homer and seven RBIs; OPS+ of 60; WAR of minus-0.4.
Justin Upton, Tigers: Batting .246 with two homers and eight RBIs; OPS+ of 73; WAR of minus-0.3.
Craig Kimbrel, Red Sox: Nine saves in 10 chances; ERA of 3.46; WHIP of 0.846; FIP of 3.31; WAR of 0.3.
Alex Wood, Dodgers: Two quality starts in six outings; ERA of 5.18; WHIP of 1.485; FIP of 4.23; WAR of minus-0.4.
Andrelton Simmons, Angels: Batting .216 with one homer and six RBIs; OPS+ of 49; WAR of 0.1.
Shelby Miller, Diamondbacks: No quality starts in six outings; WHIP of 1.971; ERA of 8.49; FIP of 7.24; WAR of minus-0.8.
(OPS+ is on-base percentage plus slugging adjusted for a player's ballpark; the league average OPS+ is 100. FIP is "fielding independent pitching," measuring strikeouts, walks and homers; as with ERA, lower is better. WHIP stands for "walks/hits per inning." WAR is "wins above replacement"; I've used the Baseball Reference version.)
All righty then. Seven former Braves. Seven separate offloads that caused some if not much local angst. The collective WAR value of those seven ex-Braves five weeks into the season is minus-1.6.
Remember Melvin Upton Jr., then known as B.J.? In 2014, his nadir as a Brave, his WAR value was minus-1.6.
Also note: Those seven erstwhile Braves will earn $69.07 million this season.
Among big-league pitchers who've worked 20-plus innings, Miller's FIP and WAR are the worst. Wood's WHIP is his career worst. Even as we note that WAR gives closers short shrift, Kimbrel's FIP is his career worst. Through Friday, Justin Upton had struck out 42 times against three walks. (Not a misprint.) In simple OPS, Simmons ranks 188th among 193 qualifying hitters; Heyward ranks 173rd. Gattis was sent to Double-A on Friday to get work at catcher.
For those seven players, the Braves acquired: Tyrell Jenkins, Max Fried, Jace Peterson, Dustin Peterson, Mallex Smith, Mike Foltynewicz, Andrew Thurman, Rio Ruiz, Matt Wisler, the draft pick that became Austin Riley, Hector Olivera, Zachary Bird, Sean Newcomb, Chris Ellis, Erick Aybar, Dansby Swanson, Ender Inciarte and Aaron Blair. (They also got one season of Miller and Cameron Maybin.)
The Olivera Experiment is off to a rotten start. Aybar has been awful. But Inciarte figures to be good when healthy, and five of the 15 younger guys listed above have reached the majors. The other 10 rank among the Braves' top 21 prospects, according to MLB.com.
For guys who allegedly know nothing about baseball, the Two Johns are rather adept at Selling High. Imagine if they’d waited until this July to shop Miller. Could they have gotten Swanson or Blair or Inciarte for him then? (As it was, they hooked all three.) Could they have gotten half as much for Heyward or J. Upton if they hadn’t traded them a full year before they hit free agency?
“If you aren’t trying to sell high, you aren’t doing right by your organization,” said Coppolella, the general manager. “Only in some crazy extenuating circumstance would you sell low.”
Speaking of crazy: Going by WAR, the aforementioned Melvin Upton — thrown into the Kimbrel trade to shed his massive salary — is having a better season than any of the other ex-Braves we've examined. He's at 0.5. Bring back B.J.?


