Arkansas in the Big 12?

Keep in mind, the possibilities assume some potential moves and not others. We move Missouri and Nebraska together, but the Big Ten expansion could include one or neither.

In one scenario, we move the six Big 12 schools to the Pacific-10 as suggested by the report earlier this week, but not fewer than six.

Who knows? Only the conference commissioners and their consultants have a handle on the future of college sports. Give each of these four Big 12 scenarios an equal chance of occurring, and from somebody who covered the league's exploratory meetings through all of its major championships, my hope is for the first.

1. Status quo

The Big 12 remaining together with its original members seems to be a decision others will make for the conference.

That is, it happens if the Big Ten, Pac-10 or any other conference decides not to expand, or their expansion plans don't include a Big 12 member .

Believe it or not, many at the schools' most often associated with expansion, Missouri and Nebraska, don't desire change. It could mean ending or limiting longstanding relationships with other schools.

But change wouldn't be unusual. It's happened every generation or so. Missouri and Nebraska joined Kansas, Iowa and Washington University as charter members of the Missouri Valley Intercollegiate Athletic Association in 1907. Soon, Iowa State and Kansas State joined.

By 1928, the Big Six was rolling with the Tigers, Huskers, Jayhawks, Wildcats, Cyclones and Oklahoma. Colorado joined in 1947, Oklahoma State in 1957 and the Big Eight operated for nearly four decades until the Big 12 was opened for business in 1996.

2. The ten-spot

Missouri and Nebraska accept invitations to the Big Ten. Texas says no to the Pac-10, and others follow by remaining in the Big 12. This makes sense to the Longhorns, who covet their powerful position in the Big 12.

The Big 12 decides to maintain its name — hey, the Big Ten has with 11 members and presumably will no matter how many it adds — and make some changes.

There would be no North/South designation and complete round-robin football and basketball scheduling: nine football and 18 basketball games.

The conference football title game wouldn't have to end, but a change in NCAA legislation would be required to play the game with fewer than 12 conference members. It might be worth pitting first- and second-place teams in a finale for TV revenue.

Kansas City remains a destination for the conference basketball tournament. Commissioner Dan Beebe has said the city's proximity to Kansas, Kansas State and Iowa State would trump the idea of playing the event in what would be a Big Ten state.

3. The replacements

Here's where it gets interesting.

Again, Missouri and Nebraska move to the Big Ten, the Big 12 remains and decides to replenish.

At first blush, the West looks tempting. Utah and Brigham Young of the Mountain West are among the next best things not in a BCS automatic qualifier conference (yet).

Forget TCU from that conference. Terrific school, probably should have been in the Big 12 in the first place, but the league doesn't want another Texas-based school to siphon off recruits.

But let's stay out of the Mountain West altogether and look east, specifically Louisville and Cincinnati. Those Big East schools are already members of a BCS conference and are in larger population areas. It would put the Big 12 in SEC and Big Ten country.

Memphis from Conference USA also is a possibility here, especially if Colorado becomes a Pac-10 target.

Arkansas? If it fits better geographically in the Big 12, and if the conference can match the SEC's financial package.

4. Armageddon

The Pac-10 grabs half of the Big 12 and the Big Ten gets two, leaving Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State and Baylor to fend for themselves.

The Jayhawks wonder how they got kicked to the curb with an athletic budget in the Big 12's top half, its basketball richness and standing in the Kansas City market.

Of the group, Kansas has the best shot of landing in a BCS league. Is the Big East far-fetched? Could it be Lew Perkins' major accomplishment before stepping down? He knows the territory.