PSR update: 6 region champs won’t be highest playoff seeds from their region

Six teams projected to win region titles outright will get lower playoff seeds than teams finishing behind them in region standings, according to the computer Maxwell Ratings’ assessment of how the final three weeks of the regular season will play out.

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Those teams are North Paulding, Gainesville, Effingham County, Dougherty, Charlton County and Emanuel County Institute.

Fourteen non-champions also will be seeded below region rivals that finish behind them in region play, according to Maxwell.

Three of those — Collins Hill, Liberty County and Marion County — are projected to miss the playoffs while teams lower in the region standings make it over them.

North Paulding coach Don Stark told AJC Varsity last week that he prefers the GHSA’s traditional way of seeding teams based on region finish and not Post Season Rankings, the GHSA’s computer model.

North Paulding is 6-2 overall and 5-0 in Region 5-7A and heavily favored to finish 7-0 in region play. But Maxwell projects North Cobb — a team that North Paulding beat on Oct. 9 — as the No. 11 seed and North Paulding as the No. 13 seed.

“I liked the way it was set up by region finish,” Stark said. “You knew it was always settled on the field by the results in your region. I do understand there are concerns with that way of doing it. Maybe the fifth-place team in a better region is better than the third- or even the second-best in another, but I don’t know how many fifth seeds have ever won a state championship.”

Gainesville athletic director Adam Lindsey, whose team stands to be seeded below Milton in the state playoffs even if Gainesville beats Milton, defended the GHSA’s decision this season to de-emphasize region finish and pick and seed playoff teams based on the PSR standings.

“Clearly the PSR formula needs some tweaking, but everyone has to remember it was never fully meant to get the seeding at the top correct,” Lindsey said Monday. “The whole point was to get the top 32 teams to the playoffs. And I do believe that piece will happen.”

Gainesville (6-2 overall and 4-0 in Region 8-6A) is predicted by Maxwell to win its remaining games, including Friday’s home showdown against Milton (7-1, 3-0), but get the No. 11 seed in Class 6A with Milton getting the No. 9 seed. Both teams would be seeded to play on the road as early as the second round, even though both are in AJC Varsity’s Top 10.

“We are more concerned about the matchups in the playoffs than someone being seeded higher than us that we beat,” Lindsey said. “Clearly, the PSR is not going to get to a place where it ranks the top 10 in an actual logical order of best 10 teams. At the end of the day this certainly needs some tweaking but is 10,000% better than taking the top four from each region. A lot more will shake out over the next couple of weeks, but the top 32 will make the playoffs this way.”

Here are the 22 teams that Maxwell projects will be seeded below lower-finishing teams from their regions. Jenkins and Brooks County are listed twice because two teams below them are projected to be seeded higher.

An asterisk shows region champions. Two asterisks show teams projected to miss the playoffs.

These do not count teams that finish higher in region standings because of tiebreakers. They include only those with better region records.

Class 7A

• Region 2: Douglas County (3rd, 2-2, #18) behind East Coweta (4th, 1-3, #14)
• Region 3: North Atlanta (3rd, 4-2, #29) behind Harrison (4th, 3-3, #25)
• *Region 5: North Paulding (1st, 7-0, #13) behind North Cobb (2nd, 6-1, #11)
• **Region 8: Collins Hill (2nd, 5-1, #33) behind Dacula (3rd, 4-2, #31)

Class 6A

• *Region 1: Effingham County (1st, 7-0, #15) behind Bradwell Institute (2nd, 6-1, #13)
• *Region 7: Gainesville (1st, 6-0, #11) behind Milton (2nd, 5-1, #9)

Class 5A

• Region 1: Jenkins (3rd, 5-2, #31) behind Richmond Academy (4th, 4-3, #18)
• Region 1: Jenkins (3rd, 5-2, #31) behind Statesboro (5th, 3-4, #27)
• Region 6: Cambridge (3rd, 4-2, #26) behind Centennial (4th, 3-3, #25)

Class 4A

• *Region 1: Dougherty (1st, 8-0, #6) behind Cairo (2nd, 7-1, #5)
• Region 1: Spencer (3rd, 6-2, #18) behind Westover (4th, 5-3, #15)
• **Region 3: Liberty County (3rd, 4-2, #33) behind New Hampstead (4th, 3-3, #32)

Class 3A

• Region 5: Temple (6th, 2-5, #30) behind Haralson County (7th, 1-6, #25)