Braves can ease October doubts by besting MLB-best Brewers this weekend

The Braves hold a five-game lead over the Phillies in the National League East with 34 games to go. Only three MLB teams have a better record. Only one NL team has a better staff ERA.

Those facts are obscured by their 8-8 record since a disappointing haul before the trade deadline. Those circumstances make what Braves manager Walt Weiss told reporters in Chicago on Thursday sound like a reminder.

“We’ve got a good team,” Weiss said after the Braves beat the White Sox 2-0. “We’re in first place. We’ve got a good group.”

No one should doubt that. The Braves (75-53) are shoo-ins to make the postseason. The FanGraphs projection gave the Braves a 99.2% chance of making the postseason even before they ended their losing streak at three games with the victory in Chicago.

The doubts about the Braves are more about their postseason chances.

Are they really good enough to make a deep October run for the first time since winning the 2021 World Series? Can they at least win their first postseason series since then?

The Braves can provide evidence that they are ready for October by besting the Brewers this weekend. Milwaukee (79-49) owns MLB’s best record. It’s the third weekend in a row that the Braves will play a series against a playoff contender.

The first two times didn’t go well. The Yankees and Diamondbacks both won two out of three games against the Braves by shutting down their offense. Now the Braves are up against a Milwaukee pitching staff that has an NL-best 3.46 ERA (the Braves are second with a 3.64 ERA).

The Braves are scheduled to face Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski in the opener Friday afternoon. His 1.75 ERA is the best in baseball. Misiorowski held the Dodgers to a run over six innings in his last start. He limited the Braves to two runs over six innings at Truist Park in June.

Milwaukee’s scheduled starter for Saturday, rookie Logan Henderson, hasn’t allowed more than three runs over 12 starts. The Braves are set to face another good rookie in the finale, lefty Shane Drohan (3.86 ERA). The Brewers should have all relievers available from a bullpen that has an NL-best 3.37 ERA.

This is a chance for the Braves to ease doubts about their chances to advance in the postseason. Most of the worries were about the pitching after Braves president of baseball operations and general manager Alex Anthopoulos struck out on his search for a top-tier starter before the trade deadline.

But the team’s rotation is holding strong. Chris Sale is still dominant. Martin Pérez’s late-career rebirth continues. Tyler Mahle has made three effective starts since arriving in a trade from the Giants.

The biggest issue for the Braves lately has been a lack of offensive punch.

The Braves ended their losing streak against the White Sox but not their trouble scoring runs. They’ve scored more than five runs in just five of 18 games this month. In August, they are tied for 28th among MLB teams in on-base percentage (.281), 21st in batting average (.231), and tied for 20th in OPS (.685).

The Braves scored eight runs over three games against the Yankees two weekends ago. They did the same thing against the Diamondbacks last weekend. At least those offensive flameouts could be explained by the Braves facing quality starters in all six games.

Then the Braves got swept in a three-game series by the Twins while scoring seven runs. Minnesota ranks among MLB’s bottom five teams in staff ERA. The Braves struggled against Twins starters Bailey Ober (4.62 ERA), Zebby Matthews (5.12 ERA) and Taj Bradley (3.90 ERA).

The Braves likely will need production from their slumping hitters to win the series against the Brewers. The list includes Michael Harris II, Drake Baldwin, Ozzie Albies and Mauricio Dubón. Some good signs from Thursday: Dubón had three hits, Harris hit a double and Austin Riley continued his productive month by driving in both of them.

The Braves have Sale, Pérez and Mahle lined up to face the Brewers. They’ll navigate a lineup that doesn’t hit many homers (MLB-worst 119) but scores plenty of runs (642, fourth most). The Brewers rank second among MLB teams in walks and on-base percentage and fourth in doubles.

The Braves can make a postseason statement by winning the series against the Brewers this weekend. The worst case would be losing another series against a contender while struggling to score. If that happens, get ready for more angst next week.