Why a win for Georgia vs. Sooners would open door to national championship

OMAHA, Neb. — History and logic strongly suggest that the winner of Georgia’s Monday night matchup with Oklahoma at the College World Series should lock up the bracket and reach the finals.

And if the Bulldogs reach the finals, history (along with Georgia’s demonstrated supremacy) would set them as favorites to win the whole thing.

That makes it a pretty big enchilada.

And, fortunately for Georgia, the matchup against the Sooners appears quite favorable.

It’s still early in their stay, but the stars may be aligning for coach Wes Johnson and the Bulldogs.

Let’s start with why Monday night’s winner’s bracket game is so important.

Obviously, any game in a double-elimination format is critical, but this one is especially so. If Georgia were to follow up Saturday’s 7-1 defeat of Texas with a win over the Sooners, Oklahoma would have to play the winner of Monday’s Texas-Alabama game on Tuesday while the Bulldogs would earn a rest day.

The winner of that game would face a rested Georgia team Wednesday needing to beat the Bulldogs twice, while Georgia would only need one win to capture the bracket and advance. That team would have to do so with the further disadvantage of having its pitching staff depleted by one more game than Georgia.

This arrangement has been highly favorable for the victor of this winner’s bracket game. In the past five College World Series, the winner of this game has gone on to win the bracket eight of 10 times.

Over the past 25 College World Series, the record isn’t quite as overwhelming but still quite convincing: 36-14.

And should Georgia prove the winner of the all-SEC Bracket 2 — note to NCAA: The brackets could use some branding work — it would go into the CWS best-of-three final bearing an affirming stamp.

SEC teams have won the past six national championships and seven of the past eight.

Bracket 1 did have an SEC team in Ole Miss, but the Rebels were eliminated Sunday.

Georgia isn’t just a garden-variety SEC team, of course. It is the regular-season and tournament champion of a league that captured five of the eight CWS slots.

Hence, there is a lot riding on Monday’s game.

And, better for the Bulldogs, there’s a lot of reason to like their chances against the Sooners.

They will likely face Oklahoma right-hander Xander Mercurius. The freshman was moved into the starting rotation late in the season. His only three starts were in his most recent appearances, against Tennessee in Oklahoma’s final regular-season series, against Georgia Tech in the NCAA regional round and against Kansas in the super regional.

In those starts, he pitched 14⅔ innings with an ERA of 6.14. (His season ERA is 5.82.) Mercurius fared his best in his most recent outing, a four-inning, one-run performance against Kansas.

But it would be reasonable to say he is someone the Bulldogs, with arguably the top offense in the country, can attack.

He’ll be against All-American Caden Aoki, who has a 9-1 record with a 4.04 ERA. He has proved a trustworthy arm for the Bulldogs. In his most recent six starts, his ERA is a so-so 4.91. But remove the worst effort of the six, a tough-luck appearance against Auburn, and the ERA drops to 3.14.

In a pressure-filled environment, a fifth-year senior who has consistently delivered vs. a freshman who has been roughed up in two of his three starts is a matchup UGA has to like.

It doesn’t guarantee anything for Monday night, and a win over the Sooners wouldn’t ensure their spot in the finals.