Questions, answers about Braves’ baserunning, Austin Riley, Grant Holmes

Even though the Braves hold the best record in baseball, it doesn’t mean there aren’t problems for armchair managers to solve.

To that end, as the Braves meet the Mets for a three-game road series this weekend, ponder a few educated guesses at some questions (read: gripes) the fandom may have about their favorite team’s tactics.

Why do the Braves keep getting picked off?

When Austin Riley was caught straying too far off first base in Wednesday’s 10-inning loss to the White Sox, it was the 11th time that a Braves player had been picked off this season, an egregious sum that tied for the MLB lead.

Fans on social media responded with typical evenhandedness, particularly given that it was the struggling Riley (more on him later) and happened during a critical moment. It was in the top of the eighth in a 2-2 game that the Braves ultimately lost.

It put the team on pace to finish the season with 27 pickoffs (rounding up, as it is not possible to be picked off 26.6 times), which would tie for the second-highest total for any team this century.

However, a moment of context. While a clear mistake, it was also their pickoff since May 12, when two Braves were snagged in a home win over the Cubs, raising the season total to 10.

That night, manager Walt Weiss said that while players “were trying to do some things different” with new first-base coach Antoan Richardson, “it’s gotten to the point where we’re going to have to make an adjustment there.”

It would appear that the adjustment has worked. One time getting picked off in the past 26 games is a tolerable rate, particularly when the base stealing has remained fairly aggressive and effective. The Braves were 18-for-24 (75%) in that span, a success rate on par with the league average.

So perhaps one pickoff in 26 games, albeit a costly one, isn’t necessarily a continuation of a pattern.

They do still have work to do, though — the MLB success rate last year was 78%. The Mets, for whom Richardson coached in 2024-25, set an MLB full-season record at 89.1%.

Why isn’t Riley getting benched?

The team’s highest-paid player at the plate has drawn the growing aggravation of the fanbase. Going into Friday’s game, he was hitting .206 with an OPS of .637, which was 134th out of 158 players.

It’s substandard for any major leaguer, but especially so for a 29-year-old two-time Silver Slugger winner whose career batting average is .266 and career OPS is .812.

It has raised calls for Riley to sit in favor of Mauricio Dubón, although Ronald Acuña Jr.’s 10-day injury-list visit (hamstring) has made that a moot point for the time being, as Dubón will likely be needed in the outfield.

But it would appear that the Braves are trusting in the return of Riley’s standard production, or at least better than what they’ve seen. You might remember last season, when they stuck by Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies when they were among the least productive everyday players in the first half.

Both reversed course — Harris, in particular, after the All-Star break.

As unlikely a change in course may seem for Riley at this moment, the same could have been said for Harris a year ago. No one could have guessed in June 2025 that he would be a legitimate All-Star candidate a year later.

Even without the Acuña injury, Riley’s history was probably enough for Weiss to keep him on the field.

Is it more patience than Weiss has shown Ha-Seong Kim in his slump?

Yes.

But the Braves arguably need Riley to find his way out of his slump more than they do Kim and probably have more reason (and incentive) to believe that he is capable of doing it.

Why won’t JR Ritchie replace Grant Holmes in the rotation?

A Braves first-round pick in 2022, Ritchie was brought up from Triple-A Gwinnett a second time this season Wednesday after relievers Carlos Carrasco and Tyler Kinley were, respectively, designated for assignment and put on the 15-day IL (elbow inflammation).

As it followed another starting assignment by Holmes in which he sailed through the batting order the first time only to stumble the second, it was easy to think that Ritchie would take Holmes’ place in the rotation and Holmes would go to the bullpen.

After all, Ritchie started five games in his first stint and has been a starter throughout his minor-league career, while Holmes has had experience and success as a reliever.

However, it’s expected that Ritchie will be a bullpen arm and that Holmes will stay in the rotation. Ritchie will start out providing length — three or four innings, if needed.

Why not flip the two?

At least one reason is that Ritchie didn’t prove to be a better solution in his first time up as a starter. In five starts, he had a 4.56 ERA and a WHIP of 1.442.

This season, Holmes has a 4.05 ERA and a 1.335 WHIP.

There is more to it than those two statistics, of course. Holmes’ challenges facing a lineup the second time do seem very real. Opponents have a .541 OPS the first time and 1.055 the second time.

For context, that’s basically the difference between 2025 first-half Michael Harris II and MVP-level Shohei Ohtani.