Five intriguing Falcons prop bets for the 2025 season

The Falcons will be an interesting team to watch this season, both on the field and in your prop bets. With Michael Penix Jr. taking the snaps and a revamped defense, the Falcons could make the playoffs, and they’ll also give the savvy spectator the opportunity to benefit.

We did the work for you. Vegas has put out the regular-season props, and we found a few that look very enticing this season. Let’s dive in.

Falcons to score 1+ TD in every regular-season game: (+300)

This is easy … right? Well, not exactly — which is obvious, given the +300 odds. Teams don’t score a touchdown in every game as often as you would think. But there’s a lot that comes into play here, so let’s focus on the Falcons.

The Falcons have failed to score a touchdown in exactly one game in each of the past three seasons. In 2021, the Falcons failed to do so in three games, but that largely was because of a terrible offense featuring a declining quarterback in Matt Ryan and a lack of real offensive options to support him. In 2020, again, just one game tripped up the Falcons, despite going 4-12. Excluding the 2021 outlier, the Falcons have failed to score a touchdown in six total games over nine seasons.

Maybe the trend changes this season. For starters, the Falcons play in the comfort of a stadium with a roof, giving them nine games this season with guaranteed favorable conditions.

Michael Penix Jr. to throw over 18.5 TD passes in regular season: (+100)

This is a tough one, considering there isn’t much of a track record to judge Penix. In his three games last season, he totaled three touchdowns, and if London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson as the focal points of the offense, there’s reason for optimism.

For what it’s worth, Kirk Cousins threw 18 touchdown passes in only 14 games last season, and the league had 19 QBs who had at least 19 passing touchdowns. Barring injury, Penix can hit that mark this season.

Bijan Robinson over 10.5 rushing TDs in the regular season (+100)

Is this real? This seems to be the easiest pick of any of the choices, as Robinson had 16 rushing touchdowns last year, and his stock seems only to be rising. He’ll get his share of carries, and as Penix gets his footing, the Falcons will rely on the running game.

This could be one opportunity that’s achieved around the midway point of the season.

Drake London to catch 10+ TDs in the regular season (+230)

London was one of the best receivers in football last season, despite a rough season from quarterback Kirk Cousins. London had nine TD catches last season on 14 end-zone targets, good for ninth in the NFL. The only other Falcon with more than two end-zone targets was Pitts (6).

Six of London’s targets came in weeks 16-18, when Penix was the starting quarterback. Penix looked for London on six of his eight passes into the end zone. Only Davante Adams had more in those final three weeks.

Simply put, expect a ton of London this year, and if that’s the case, over 10 touchdowns seems like a solid option.

Falcons over 7.5 regular-season wins (-140)

The Falcons had eight wins last season, but before that, the last time they won more than eight was in 2017, which also happens to be their last postseason run.

That changes this year. If the above props hit, this one is likely to hit, as well.

The Falcons get the benefit of being in the NFC South, so let’s say they finish 4-2 in their divisional games versus Carolina, New Orleans and Tampa Bay.

They need to find four more wins. They could finish at least 3-2 in home games against Washington, Buffalo, Miami, Seattle and the Rams. That leaves road games against Minnesota, San Francisco, New England, Indianapolis, the N.Y. Jets and Arizona. Winning on the road is never easy, but in this hypothetical, the Falcons would need only one win to hit the over. The game versus Indianapolis will be played in Berlin and may very well feel like a home crowd for the Falcons. Winning at San Fran or Minnesota will be a tall task, but the Jets and New England should provide a better opportunity.

The Falcons have gone under their win total in six of the past seven seasons. That trend is sure to end this year. And that leads to one final prop we like. Take them +150 to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2017.