This week brought a rarity — a poll result outside the margin of error.
A Quinnipiac University poll found Republican Donald Trump with a lead of 52% to 45% for Democrat Kamala Harris. The last time a poll showed a candidate with a lead outside the margin of error was the previous Quinnipiac poll in late September that had Trump up by 6 percentage points.
Whether Quinnipiac is an outlier or trendsetter remains to be seen. Every other poll showed a close race. Bloomberg/Morning Consult has Trump up by 1 percentage point after showing Harris with a similar edge last month. InsiderAdvantage had Trump ahead by 2 percentage points after previously showing the race even. The Telegraph had the race tied, which was unchanged from its last poll. The Wall Street Journal gave Harris the edge, 46% to 45%.
The last 10 days of polling has Trump leading in five polls, Harris leading one poll and one poll tied, The average shows Trump narrowly ahead 48% to 47%.
No expert forecaster has moved its Georgia rating off Toss-up.
Prices on Predictit moved in Harris’ favor in the past week but still trend toward Trump winning Georgia. The price for a share predicting a Republican win on Predictit fell 3 cents in the past week to 65 cents. A share predicting a Democratic win rose 3 cents to 39 cents. On Polymarket, prices ticked toward Trump. A user betting on Trump would win about $16 for wagering $10, compared with $28 on a $10 wager for Harris.
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