Inside Democrats’ push to flip the Georgia House

Today’s newsletter highlights

• Rick Jackson holds final campaign rally.
• Raphael Warnock teases run for “higher office” in 2028.
• Mike Collins returns to the campaign trail.

All in

One of the most consequential election fights is unfolding down the ballot as Democrats mount an ambitious push to gain 10 state House seats to flip control of the chamber for the first time in decades.

Now we’re getting a closer look at their strategy.

The Democratic Party of Georgia revealed Monday it has poured $2.1 million into advertising and mail in 13 House races and three Senate contests. That’s part of a broader effort to make legislative races a priority rather than an afterthought.

The party says it helped recruit its largest slate of legislative candidates in three decades, organized 29 field offices around competitive districts and built a research team to dig into GOP opponents and test messages.

It also assigned a full-time staffer to support legislative candidates and created a dedicated fundraising operation to bankroll the effort.

Republicans, meanwhile, have spent heavily to protect their majority.

Flipping the House is still a long shot. But Democrats don’t have to win outright to shake up the Gold Dome.

Even narrowing GOP majorities could give them new leverage and make it harder for Republicans to operate without bipartisan buy-in.

Democratic Party of Georgia Chair Charlie Bailey said he’s “confident that we will flip seats and make progress toward breaking the vice grip of 24 years of Republican rule in Georgia that has made the American Dream less attainable than it was when they took power.”

Things to know

Good morning! Happy election eve. Here are three things to know for today:

• More Georgians voted early in a midterm than ever before, with a younger, more diverse electorate and stronger turnout in left-leaning areas fueling the record-breaking surge ahead of Tuesday’s election, Greg Bluestein and Charles Minshew report.
• Unease about what the Trump administration might try to do in a county that has been an epicenter for 2020 election conspiracies persists among voters, voting rights groups and Democrats, Caleb Groves reports.
• Organizations that help people sign up for health insurance on Georgia’s Affordable Care Act marketplace are expecting many of their clients to balk at the substantial price increases unveiled during the open enrollment period, which began Sunday, Tamar Hallerman reports.

Danger Zone

Republican nominee for governor Rick Jackson arrived on stage at his final rally of the campaign Sunday night with a Trump-esque bit of stagecraft. He rode his massive campaign bus into the building and disembarked to the stage to deliver his last major speech of the election cycle.

Jackson wrapped up by telling the crowd, “Let’s take it to the danger zone!” and walked off to the Kenny Loggins tune by the same name.

The danger zone is exactly where Republicans find themselves this morning, with early voting numbers in Georgia showing a 13% surge overall compared to the 2022 midterms and turnout increasing among younger people, minorities and voters in heavily Democratic areas of the state.

GOP strategists are now running models to see how high Election Day turnout needs to be — and how many of those votes need to be Republican — to keep the statewide races within reach. Split ticket voting and a big increase in new voters are making that modeling especially tricky.

Before Jackson spoke, former Republican Gov. Sonny Perdue called this year’s election “the most consequential of my lifetime” and said GOP voters need to understand that, too.

“This part of Georgia helped us 25 years ago and changed Georgia,” he said. “Have we become so complacent we’ve forgotten? I hope not, because that’s what’s at stake.”

‘Higher office’

U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock has a new line about his political future.

Shortly before his Sunday sermon at Ebenezer Baptist Church, he told CNN he will seek “high office” in 2028, without specifying whether he meant the White House or another term in the U.S. Senate.

Back at the pulpit, Warnock praised his congregation for its strong early voting turnout — nearly everyone stood when he asked who in the crowd had voted early — and predicted Tuesday’s election would help break the political “fever” gripping the nation.

Then he took aim at President Donald Trump.

“Donald Trump is a problem. But he’s also a symptom of a deeper problem. Only a nation that is spiritually sick could have elected Donald Trump twice,” he said.

Collins on the trail

U.S. Rep. Mike Collins returns to the campaign trail this morning after not appearing publicly at all in the final weekend before the general election.

Collins’ campaign did not respond to our calls and texts about his weekend schedule or lack thereof. His last official campaign event was Thursday in Carrollton.

There was nothing on his schedule Friday, Saturday or Sunday.

His opponent, Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff, was active all weekend, speaking to supporters at canvass launches and then answering questions from reporters on Saturday and Sunday.

Collins returns to the trail today with a campaign stop in Atlanta this morning.

Ask us anything

Join senior politics reporter Greg Bluestein and Washington bureau chief Tia Mitchell today at 11:30 a.m. for a Reddit “Ask Me Anything” ahead of Tuesday’s election. Find them on r/Atlanta and try to stump them with your hardest questions about the midterms in Georgia.

Listen up

Today on the “Politically Georgia” podcast, Greg Bluestein, Patricia Murphy and Tia Mitchell examine the early voting numbers, growing Republican concerns and what could decide Georgia’s closest races in the final days of the campaign.

You can listen and subscribe to “Politically Georgia” for free on Apple Podcasts, YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.

Have a question or comment for the show? Email us at politicallygeorgia@ajc.com or give us a call at 770-810-5297 and you could be featured on a future episode.

Ripple effect

Ossoff’s commanding position in Tuesday’s election has given national Democrats an unexpected luxury: the ability to spend their money elsewhere.

As Ossoff built a polling lead and raised nearly $116 million, Democratic groups shifted resources to other battlegrounds.

Senate Majority PAC and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee pulled their TV and digital spending from Georgia weeks ago. The pro-Ossoff group Georgia Way scaled back an initial $15 million ad reservation.

By Oct. 12, all outside spending stopped in the race, according to Senate ad watchers. That meant those groups could shift money into battlegrounds states Maine and Michigan, and newer hot spots, such as Kansas.