A Southern shake-up puts 3 Georgians in the 2028 presidential spotlight

A blue streak of Democratic victories across the once-solidly Republican South last week scrambled the 2028 presidential race. And the shake-up could create an opening for three of Georgia’s most prominent politicians.

Republicans looking to reclaim lost ground across the South could turn to Gov. Brian Kemp, whose aides say is “seriously” considering a White House bid built on his conservative record and a political identity not defined by President Donald Trump.

Democrats hoping to turn their 2026 breakthrough into something more lasting could look to U.S. Sens. Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, whose Georgia victories have made them national figures in a party anxiously searching for its next standard-bearer.

It’s a remarkable turn for a region that has been the cornerstone of Republican presidential victories and is now fresh off a historic Democratic sweep.

“These results put Georgia squarely in the middle of the 2028 race for president,” said Jason Carter, the Democratic nominee for governor in 2014 and a grandson of the late President Jimmy Carter. “It’s a long way off in politics, but we all just saw what two years can do.”

Much of the early speculation centers on Ossoff, whose landslide 18-point reelection victory cemented his place in the 2028 conversation even though he’s repeatedly insisted he isn’t running. He pledged during a debate before the election that he would serve his full six-year Senate term.

Early national polls already put Ossoff among the leading potential Democratic contenders. But it’s Warnock who has repeatedly kept the door open for a presidential bid even as Ossoff retreats from the spotlight.

The second-term Democrat, who pastors Ebenezer Baptist Church, recently declared that he plans to seek “high office” in 2028, though he wouldn’t say whether that meant another Senate term or a presidential bid.

Kemp, meanwhile, could make a different case to Republicans searching for a path back to power as he ponders a White House bid or a Senate bid, something he’s also not ruled out.

He twice defeated Democrat Stacey Abrams, brushed aside Trump’s effort to oust him in 2022 and is leaving office with sky-high approval ratings.

“Let’s face it: Donald Trump’s shadow is going to loom large again in 2028,” said Republican Attorney General Chris Carr, a close Kemp ally. “And to have a chance of winning the presidency, we need someone who isn’t tethered to the president. And Brian Kemp is exactly the kind of candidate we need.”

‘It’s all over?’

The scale of the Democratic victories helps explain why the South is suddenly at the center of the 2028 presidential jockeying.

Democrats routed Republicans in Texas, flipped U.S. Senate seats in North Carolina and South Carolina and are on the verge of capturing another in Mississippi.

In Georgia, Democrats swept the statewide ballot, captured the Governor’s Mansion for the first time in 24 years, flipped the state House and came within a whisker of controlling the Georgia Senate.

There’s another twist to the Democratic sweep. If there’s a Senate vacancy, Gov.-elect Keisha Lance Bottoms, a Democrat, could appoint a temporary replacement rather than leave that choice to a Republican governor.

Whether the Democratic gains prove fleeting or mark a lasting political realignment depends partly on what party leaders do with their newfound power. But the results have already challenged long-held assumptions about the South’s political trajectory.

Few know the South’s political history better than University of Georgia political scientist Charles Bullock, who has devoted more than a half-century of his career chronicling the region. And he sees the potential for a seismic shift in American politics.

“The South is what is keeping Republicans in power, and there are vast implications for American politics if this trend holds,” he said. “If the South starts to line up with Democrats, it’s all over for Republicans.”

‘A symptom’

There’s another reason the region looms large: South Carolina is scheduled to kick off the Democratic presidential nominating calendar on Jan. 22, 2028. Virginia is set to vote five weeks later.

That gives Southern voters, particularly Black Democrats, a louder voice in picking the party’s nominee. And it puts a premium on candidates who already know how to win in the South.

Warnock spent the closing stretch of the midterm campaign barnstorming the region, arguing at stop after stop that Democrats shouldn’t write off the South. His potential White House pitch could build on the coalition he forged in Georgia, mobilizing Black voters while winning support from independents and some Republicans.

He has also sharpened his criticism of Trump, describing his presidency as a “fever” gripping the nation during a Sunday sermon days before the vote.

“Donald Trump is a problem. But he’s also a symptom of a deeper problem,” Warnock told congregants at Ebenezer Baptist Church. “Only a nation that is spiritually sick could have elected Donald Trump twice.”

Ossoff, meanwhile, has taken a far different approach since his overwhelming victory.

Back in Washington for Senate votes, he’s largely steered clear of the corridors chock-full of TV cameras. And he hasn’t given any national media interviews since the election.

The contrast will be on display later this week in Denver. Warnock is among the potential White House contenders expected at a summit of influential Democrats. Ossoff isn’t attending.

Georgia Democrats are enthusiastic about both. An October Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll found 84% of likely Democratic voters favored an Ossoff presidential bid while about three-quarters back a Warnock run.

Jennifer Palmieri, a veteran Democratic strategist who worked in the Clinton and Obama administrations, said there’s a reason the spotlight is turning toward both U.S. senators.

“Red state Democrats make great presidential candidates. And that is why Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock are so good candidates,” Palmieri said. “They are unifying and not divisive. And they can appeal to Democrats, independents and some Republicans who are open to Democrats.”

From buzz to a bid

Presidential speculation is one thing. Building a campaign that can survive a grueling national primary is another.

Kemp knows the difference. He generated buzz about a possible 2024 bid, but it never advanced into a serious campaign operation. While other Republican hopefuls put together national staffs and courted national donors, Kemp stayed on the sidelines.

The midterm rout could change his calculations. His allies feel vindicated by his warnings that Republicans need candidates who could appeal beyond Trump’s most loyal supporters.

He was particularly skeptical of U.S. Rep. Mike Collins, the GOP Senate nominee, whose hard-edged MAGA record Kemp worried would be a liability in a statewide race. Collins barely cracked 41% of the vote, losing a string of deep-red strongholds in the process while getting routed in Atlanta’s suburbs.

Kemp also won praise for his response to the Democratic sweep. Rather than summon lawmakers back to Atlanta for a special session to redraw political maps or strip powers from the incoming governor, Kemp said he would respect the will of the voters.

And while most attention focused on his efforts to boost Republicans in Georgia, Kemp also ventured into South Carolina in the final days of the campaign to stump for Gov.-elect Alan Wilson, who won there even as the state’s GOP Senate nominee fell.