“By some estimates, as few as 2 percent of the 50,000 (Central American) children who have crossed the border illegally this year have been sent home.”
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush in a July 23 op-ed in The Wall Street Journal
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, one of the Republican Party’s most vocal advocates of federal action on immigration policy, recently re-entered the immigration debate with an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal regarding the thousands of undocumented Central American minors flocking to the U.S. border.
Bush, a potential 2016 candidate for president, co-wrote the op-ed with Clint Bolick, the vice president for litigation at the libertarian Goldwater Institute (the two also teamed up for a book on immigration in 2013). Before laying out their suggested course of action, Bush and Bolick explain the problem.
“Currently the vast number of children is overwhelming the process,” they wrote. “Roughly half do not show up for their hearings. As a result, judging by Homeland Security figures, only a fraction of the approximately 20,000 Central American children who entered the country illegally in 2013 were repatriated. By some estimates, as few as 2 percent of the 50,000 children who have crossed the border illegally this year have been sent home.”
We’ve already looked at the number of minors who report for their hearings. (Bush’s description of it as “roughly half” is not far off from what we found.) But what about the number of children that the government has returned this year? We decided to look into the stat.
Where did 2 percent come from?
A spokeswoman for Bush told PolitiFact that the 2 percent figure came from a Senate Homeland Security Committee hearing on July 9.
During the hearing, it was reported that about 57,000 children have been apprehended, and about 1,300 to 1,500 have been returned to their home countries.
But the numbers get a bit more complicated than that.
In his op-ed (and his office confirmed) Bush was discussing a specific issue: the number of children from Central American countries showing up at the border. Due to a 2008 immigration law, Mexican children are processed differently than those coming from nonborder countries. It’s the surge in Central American children that make up the ongoing border crisis.
Once apprehended at the border, minors from Central America are screened for trafficking or other signs of abuse. Immigration and Customs officials issue a “notice of removal” that begins the legal proceedings to determine whether the child must be deported. In the meantime, the law instructs that the child be placed with a family member or sponsor, if possible. Immigration courts then determine whether a child is eligible for asylum or specialized visas for victims of trafficking, but that process can take years.
Mexican children, meanwhile, can just be turned around at the border by U.S. authorities.
The 57,000 figure includes children from Mexico, who make up about 12,600 of the apprehended minors. When you subtract the Mexican children from the three main Central American countries — El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras — you get about 44,000.
From the testimony, it’s also not clear how many of the 1,300 to 1,500 returned are from Mexico and how many are from Central America. Bush’s office sent us to U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. McCain’s staff told us that Immigration and Customs Enforcement told them that 890 of the apprehended children from Central America in 2014 have been returned, but they could not forward us that correspondence and the agency would not confirm it independently.
For what it’s worth, 890 is 2 percent of 44,000.
A study released July 28 (after Bush’s op-ed was released) also seemed to back up the general figure.
Why so low?
According to a Bipartisan Policy Center study, 95 percent of the 2014 cases are still pending.
Compare that with previous years. About 70 percent of the 2013 cases are still pending.
In an example of how arduous this process can be, 8 percent of 2009 cases are still pending, the study found.
Our ruling
Bush wrote, “As few as 2 percent of the 50,000 (Central American) children who have crossed the border illegally this year have been sent home.”
That figure, though, is only useful as a snapshot of the current state of affairs; it is likely the number will rise as more children go through the process.
The statement is accurate but needs clarification or additional information. We rate it Mostly True.
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