Study: Flow of illegal immigrants to U.S. declines

A recent Pew Hispanic Center report suggests that the number of illegal immigrants entering the United States has dropped nearly two-thirds in the past decade, reversing a 20-year upward trend.

To that, many familiar with Georgia's immigrant population simply say: "We know."

"It's not surprising; it follows economic trends," said Helen Kim Ho, executive director of the Asian American Legal Advocacy Center Inc. in Decatur. "Immigrants come here for a better life and that means a better job. Obviously when the job market starts to shrink, that impacts the flow of all immigration."

According to the Pew study, an average of 850,000 people entered the U.S. illegally between 2000 and 2005. That figure dropped to 300,000 between 2007 and 2009, according to the report.

In Georgia, the population of illegal immigrants dropped from 475,000 in 2008 to 425,000 a year later; however that figure falls within the study's margin of error, according to Pew senior demographer Jeffrey Passell. He continued that Georgia is among a group of Southeastern states that as a whole show a significant decline of 160,000 people in the illegal immigrant population from 2008 to 2009.

Jerry Gonzalez, executive director of the Georgia Association of Latino Elected Officials in Atlanta, suggested another major factor in the illegal immigration drop: tighter border control.

"Ultimately there has been a greater enforcement at the border during that time frame," he said. "Fundamentally the border is much more secure today than it was ever in the past."

Not everyone agrees.

Gwinnett County Sheriff Butch Conway confirmed his force has observed a drop in the illegal immigrant population, but he believes it has more to do with a federal immigration initiative Gwinnett implemented last November.

The Gwinnett County Jail collects data on arrests of foreign-born people, though that doesn't draw a distinction between unauthorized immigrants and those who now live here legally. Conway said the number of those arrests climbed steadily from 4,674 in 2000 to 14,674 in 2009. However, since implementing 287(g), a U. S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement program that allows law enforcement to place detainers on illegal criminal aliens, his force projects 11,668 arrests in 2010.

"There is a drop in people coming to Gwinnett, but I think that is attributed to 287(g)," he said. "The economy had already been bad."

Steven Camarota, director of research for the Center for Immigration Studies in Washington, said his organization last year reported a similar decrease in the illegal immigration population. The C.I.S. data, however, noted a drop in the population prior to the increase in unemployment. He credits the initial drop in late 2007 to stepped up enforcement at the end of the Bush era. The more recent decline, however, is likely a result of the country's economic nosedive, he said.

University of Georgia demographer Doug Bachtel, professor of housing and consumer economics, said immigration drops are a result of many factors, such as a weak economy and stronger enforcement.

"It's a mixed bag, but what happens is a lot of these things happen at the same time," Bachtel said. "It isn't just one [factor]."

The Pew study looked at both illegal immigrants entering the U.S., as well as people who did not leave after their legal visas expired, said D'Vera Cohn, senior writer at the Pew Research Center. The study did not estimate the number of undocumented workers who left the country in that time frame.

Immigration attorney Charles Kuck, former president of the National Association of Immigration Attorneys, said it's rare to have a client who came to the U.S. in 2007 or 2008.

"It just doesn't happen," said Kuck, who recalled an increase in immigration figures in 2003 and 2004, a trend that dropped off a few years ago. "In the past two years, the number sunk like a stone. When there are no jobs, they don’t come."

Forsyth County Sheriff Ted Paxton said the Pew study rings true with what his force has observed; however, he expects the illegal immigrant population to rebound once the economy shows promise.

"Once the economy picks up and we have those types of jobs, like those in the housing industry, we will see numbers increase," he said. "That’s the reality."

Paxton continued that while he is a strong proponent of tough immigration laws and securing U.S. borders, he recognizes that the immigrant population has found a role within the U.S. economic system.

"They have become the labor force in our country and they will do whatever job they can do," he said. "And hats off to them for that."

Bob Griggs, who runs Verify I-9 LLC, an employment eligibility program, said while the reported drop makes sense in light of the sluggish economy, he is more concerned with the remaining illegal population.