Georgia candidates begin sprint to finish

Fifty-four candidates, 15 contested statewide primaries, seven weeks.

Game on.

Georgia is in the midst of an unprecedented election season with more open statewide offices than any other year in recent history, and Memorial Day weekend marks the unofficial starting line for a final, breakneck sprint to the finish.

For some of those 54 candidates, the final seven weeks leading to the July 20 primaries will be humbling as momentum and dreams of standing on stage in victory fade away. A select few will win their nomination outright, but for many others, July 20 is simply a pit stop on the way to a runoff three weeks later.

In the race for governor, with seven Republicans and seven Democrats, the race is more about Aug. 10 than July 20. With that many candidates, a runoff is all but assured.

Earning the second spot in the runoff won't be easy.

"The biggest frustration was trying to get people to pay attention during the summer months," said former Democratic gubernatorial candidate Lewis Massey, who was one of six Democrats running in 1998.

Massey finished second in the primary to then-state Sen. Roy Barnes, who won the runoff and went on to serve a term as governor. Barnes is now seeking another term and is surrounded by six other Democrats this year.

"School is out; people are traveling, going on vacation," said Massey, a former secretary of state who is now a governmental affairs consultant in Atlanta. "The other piece of that is trying to set yourself aside as unique or distinctive so you are looked at differently from the rest of the pack."

Massey faced that challenge in a high-profile governor's race, and campaigns in down-ballot contests can have a more difficult time. While 14 candidates are vying for governor, 10 -- nine Republicans and a Democrat -- are running for insurance commissioner. Seven -- five D's and two R's -- want to be secretary of state.

Besides those races, there are contested primaries on July 20 for U.S. Senate (Democrat), lieutenant governor (D), attorney general (both parties), state school superintendent (both), agriculture commissioner (Republican), labor commissioner (both) and Public Service Commission (R).

On the Republican side of the gubernatorial campaign, the race has essentially boiled down to a four-person contest with Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine the acknowledged front-runner and former Secretary of State Karen Handel, former U.S. Rep. Nathan Deal and former state Sen. Eric Johnson battling for second.

State Sen. Jeff Chapman of Brunswick, states rights activist Ray McBerry and political newcomer Otis Putnam of Brunswick are considered long shots.

Among Democrats, Barnes is far and away the front-runner, and the only real drama appears to be whether any of three other candidates can force a runoff. Among Attorney General Thurbert Baker, House Minority Leader DuBose Porter and former Adjutant General David Poythress, polls show only Baker making a run at Barnes.

The other candidates -- state Rep. Randal Mangham of Decatur, Ray City Mayor Carl Camon and Bill Bolton of Marietta -- are largely unknown.

Back on the GOP side, where the top four are more closely bunched, the challenge for Oxendine is simple. Does he play it safe, believing his spot in the runoff is secure, or does he remain aggressive and risk tripping up on the way to July 20?

Oxendine could play "prevent defense right now. He's just trying to not mess anything up," said Republican political consultant Joel McElhannon. He is working for Brian Kemp, who is seeking a full term as secretary of state after being appointed to the position late in January.

Still, McElhannon said, Oxendine runs a risk with that strategy. His lead is based on the fact that voters are familiar with his name after 16 years in statewide office. That does not necessarily translate to deep support.

Oxendine has 2 million reasons not to play it safe, however, and that's the $2 million in cash on hand he reported having at the end of March, the last time candidates had to report finances. His campaign manager, Stephen Puetz, said playing it safe is not their plan.

"We stay on offense," Puetz said. "John is actively getting his message out to voters. We will be communicating directly with voters, not only in person with him going to meetings, but also on TV and in the mailbox."

The other three have tried for more than a year to knock Oxendine from atop the race. They have thus far failed, despite Oxendine's having to answer for a variety of ethical miscues, including the AJC-led investigation into questionable campaign contributions from businesses he regulates.

Johnson believes they're all still in it.

"The race really hasn't changed in over a year," he said. "Ox has dropped some, Nathan and Karen are still in the teens and we're still in high single digits. People are just beginning to focus on this race, and as they do, they see a candidate with the proven conservative record."

But McElhannon said for that to change, Handel, Deal and Johnson have to get with it.

"The burden is on the other three to try and duke it out," he said.

Handel believes she will vault Oxendine if she finishes second in the primary. Her advantage, she said, is that her home base is north Fulton County, which can deliver a huge chunk of the primary and runoff vote.

"When you have a field of seven of us, it's obviously going to be a runoff," Handel said. "Whether it's spot No. 1 or 2, the point is to be in the runoff."

Handel has made strides in solidifying second place, but Deal appears to be gaining. Johnson trails in the polls but had $1.74 million in cash at the end of March, more than twice as much as Deal and nearly three times as much as Handel.

Deal points to recent polling that shows him gaining on Handel as proof he has momentum.

"When voters see I have a positive plan for bringing jobs to Georgia -- while the others tend to focus on the negatives -- we're going to see our numbers swell even more," he said.

On the Democratic side, Baker appears to have the best shot at forcing Barnes into a runoff. Count Barnes' campaign manager, Chris Carpenter, among those who expect a runoff.

Baker campaign manager Jeff DiSantis agrees. He won't offer up much in the way of revealing Baker's strategy, but said it'll be based on issues.

"Georgians want a leader with serious ideas to move our state forward, not another politician who promises a return to the past," DiSantis said. "While others talk and make empty promises, Thurbert Baker is determined to be different."

Barnes isn't coasting. The former governor has worked the stump hard, and has put three different ads up on television --- which many consider to be the most important element of a statewide campaign.

"TV is still the most popular way to reach the largest number of voters," said Massey, who remembers spending around $4 million in his loss to Barnes in 1998. Much of that went to television. "If you don't have enough funds to make a legitimate buy, it's going to be very difficult to cut through the clouds that surround the large number of candidates."

Top issues in governor's race

Four policy issues that are likely to dominate the debate in the race for governor: