Winter’s here, but warmer forecast means snow is far from certain
Winter is finally here, but if you’re hoping for a repeat of last January’s snowy extravaganzas, you might want to adjust your expectations.
Despite recent frigid temperatures, this season might feel more like a typical late fall in the Peach State, making for slim chances to see any snow. Winter officially arrives Sunday, bringing with it the earliest sunset of the year.
The South’s warm and dry trend is likely to carry into 2026, and it’s almost certain Christmas will be unusually warm. You may need to ditch the festive sweater for a T-shirt: Highs on the holiday could even reach 70 degrees, according to Channel 2 Action News meteorologist Brian Monahan. That’s well above Atlanta’s average 55-degree high for Dec. 25.
Further out, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s seasonal weather outlook shows good confidence in forecasters’ predictions for higher-than-average temperatures across the Southeast and — still — not much rain over the next three months.
That’s not the best news for the ongoing drought affecting more than 80% of Georgia. Much of the state has dealt with abnormally dry conditions since late summer.
The NOAA forecast calls for a 30-60% chance of abnormally dry weather through February and a 30-50% chance of unusually warm temperatures in Georgia.
Driving the warm, dry pattern is an area of high pressure that will be setting up across the southern part of the country late this month, the National Weather Service says. It’s similar to the system that kept any Atlantic hurricanes from making U.S. landfall this year.
It’s hard to tell this early just how drastically temperatures could depart from normal winters, said NWS meteorologist Meredith Wyatt.
For reference, Atlanta’s average highs dip from 56 degrees in December to 54 in January, with the coldest part of the year typically hitting between Jan. 11-23, Monahan said. By February, the highs usually climb back to 58.
But this season “you (might) walk outside, and you may be wearing just short sleeves and jeans or something, and it’s like, ‘Oh! It doesn’t feel like wintertime,’” Wyatt said. “But not every day is going to feel like that. You know, there can certainly be some cooler days where you need a jacket.”
That mirrors fall’s weather pattern that brought unusually warm weather overall, but included a few days that were so cold North Georgia got an early winter tease. Snow fell atop the highest elevations in November, and a few rogue flurries were even spotted in metro Atlanta’s northern reaches.
Chances of seeing another round of snow are slim but not zero, Wyatt said.
“Getting winter weather is really challenging in the Southeast,” she said.
Temps need to stay well below freezing while moisture works its way into the atmosphere, she explained. But moist air is usually associated with warmer weather, which typically brings temps out of the freezing range.
“That lineup doesn’t happen as smoothly or as often as it does in areas to the north,” Wyatt said.
The right conditions did align last winter, though, when two big snowstorms smacked Georgia. On Jan. 10, metro Atlanta saw up to 3 inches of snow. Eleven days later, another blast dumped an unprecedented amount of snow across the Southeast. Cordele, about 140 miles south of Atlanta, recorded up to 9 inches, and records were broken along the Gulf Coast.
If there’s any chance for snow this season, it would most likely come in January or February, Wyatt said.
“We’ll see what the new year brings,” she said. “Don’t fret.”
