Thomas Oliver: Atlanta housing mending slowly

Talk to mortgage bankers, brokers, number crunchers and other wise observers of the metro Atlanta housing market, and you will hear some encouraging news.

You also will hear of some still unbelievable aftereffects of the general debauchery that was Atlanta's housing market from 2003 to 2007.

Such hangover horrors as this: At least 60 percent of sales last year were foreclosures or short sales, in which the lender agreed to take less than the outstanding mortgage.

Or stories of a bank that over the last two years has taken back nearly 90 subdivisions of empty lots. They are reselling them at far less than the speculative prices paid.

As big a hit as the bank will take, it's a good omen for Atlanta housing. Lot prices are coming down. Eventually that will lead to new homes being built. Maybe a contractor or two can pay his or her bills.

Maybe a construction crew can get back to work.

More good news: Inventories are down, way down, according to John Hunt of Smart Numbers.

It’s what happens when you shut down the building industry.

Eugene James of Metrostudy says you might even have a hard time finding a new home later this year and certainly next year.

More good news: Interest rates are low, still, despite the Federal Reserve’s planned pullback from purchasing mortgage-backed securities, which helped keep rates low.

Refis still dominate mortgage applications. But spring approaches, and with it the traditional home buying season.

Brooks Campbell, production manager with Henger Rast Mortgage, says there are loans to be had.

“If you can verify your income and you pay your bills, there is financing available.”

Steven Alexander, with National Guaranty Mortgage and a former president of the Georgia Mortgage Brokers Association, offers more good news: Appraisals have become more realistic.

Last summer, screams were heard from coast to coast as new appraisal regulations went into effect with your typical overreaction.

Nowadays, appraisals appear to be blowing up fewer deals, as they rely less on foreclosed comparables.

Now for some less than uplifting observations:

The much-ballyhooed homebuyer's tax credit hasn't triggered as much activity as last fall, though it still might. The contract has to be signed by April 30 to qualify. But we may be seeing the results of the initial credit grabbing buyers from the future and luring them into last fall's rush.

Those wishing to move on up by selling their home and buying a bigger more expensive house must first face the reality of 2010 prices. If you sell, you will have to admit your house isn't worth what you thought it was in 2006, 2007, when prices peaked.

There are enough folks living in denial about this that maybe we should start a self-help group, Home Owners Anonymous.

Still, Smart Numbers’ Hunt says this year we’ll sell about the same number of new and older homes that sold last year -- 65,000.

That’s about half of what we sold in 2006.