Iran war blurs the outlook for metro Atlanta’s spring housing market
The U.S.-Israeli war in Iran could upend the peak home-buying season in metro Atlanta, experts say.
Rising energy prices and inflation concerns amid the conflict in the Middle East have caused borrowing costs for a home mortgage to climb. That further erodes affordability, and buyers may tread with more caution.
“It’s bad timing for the housing market throughout the country,” said Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the First Multiple Listing Service, a provider of property data. “It’s hitting the market right as it ought to be accelerating into the spring.”
Kristen Jones, broker and owner with Re/Max Around Atlanta, said she feels like every time she turns around “there’s something in the headlines that could give buyers pause.”
Jones said she doesn’t expect the spring housing market to be “a crash and burn.” But she said, “I don’t know that it’s going to be as good as we thought prior to this mess breaking out in the Middle East.”
Housing market experts were optimistic 2026 could be a comeback year.
After sluggish sales and an uptick in contract terminations in 2025, mortgage rates were easing at the start of this year, giving would-be buyers more motivation to jump back into the market. The National Association of Realtors predicted existing homes sales would jump 14% in 2026, for example.
But now, the war has blurred the outlook.
Mortgage rates climb
President Donald Trump early Monday backed off threats to ramp up attacks on Iranian infrastructure, saying on social media he was putting in place a five-day moratorium on such strikes citing diplomatic talks. Iran, however, reportedly disputed that progress had been made on any diplomatic solution.
Mortgage rates, which dipped below 6% days before the war started, hitting a three-year low, have since climbed back up. That’s because of increased 10-year Treasury yields, which mortgage rates closely follow.
Mortgage giant Freddie Mac reported Thursday the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is 6.22%, the highest level this year, though below the average rate at the same time last year.
Mortgage Daily News, which offers a daily snapshot, reported mortgage rates above 6.5% Monday morning.
“Seeing those rates go up … I do think we have people that are doing a lot of browsing,” said Quinn Arnau, president of the Atlanta Realtors Association. “The buyers are out there. They’re not necessarily pulling the trigger.”
Renewed fears about inflation might also delay big purchase decisions, experts said.
Metro Atlanta gas prices jumped sharply as the war disrupted the global energy market, adding more strain to household budgets. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp on Friday approved a 60-day suspension of the state’s gas tax, which helped prices retreat some over the weekend.
Still, broader concerns circle about how elevated oil prices will affect the U.S. supply chain and ultimately trickle down to a number of goods.
“In the near term, higher energy prices will push up overall inflation, but it is too soon to know the scope and duration of the potential effects on the economy,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said at a Wednesday news conference. That day, the Fed held interest rates steady.
Consumer sentiment has fallen since the war started, reaching its lowest reading this year, according to the University of Michigan’s preliminary results for March.
“We’ve got a lot of uncertainty, which is always kind of a deal killer,” Appleton-Young said. “When people are uncertain, they tend to freeze. … Added on top of that is you’re going to have some deterioration in people’s budgets.”
February home sales were up
The upheaval comes as home sales were trending up compared to last year.
Closed sales of single-family, detached homes in the greater Atlanta area rose 1.5% in February year over year, according to FMLS.
Still, affordability concerns weigh on the market, Appleton-Young said.
Days on the market, or how long it takes an average home to sell, increased to 33 days in February, the highest level for the same month since 2020. And pending sales, or the number of homes put under contract, dipped 7.8% in February over the prior year, a sign of decreased buyer demand.
The average sales price continued to swell, up 3.1% in February to $557,650 for single-family, detached homes in the greater Atlanta area, according to FMLS.
The Georgia Multiple Listing Service reported similar trends, with home sales up 3% in February year over year, according to data for the 12-county metro Atlanta region. Pending sales dipped almost 25% that month, and the median sales price grew more than 2% to $400,000.
“Factors like affordability, mortgage rates and broader economic uncertainty could be influencing how quickly people are willing to move,” said a March news release from Georgia MLS.
What comes next
Jones with Re/Max Around Atlanta said experts will be watching to see how long the Iran war lasts.
“The longer this goes on, the more impact we’ll see,” she said, adding April is typically the busiest time for pending contracts, with May having the most closings.
Arnau with the Atlanta Realtors Association said if economic conditions stabilize, a “pretty normal” spring housing market could proceed.
“If the rates continue to creep up, if the uncertainty continues to grow on a global scale, then I think we may see the late arrival of the busy market,” possibly in early summer, he said.
Arnau added he believes many homebuyers have prepared, such as getting pre-qualified for mortgages. “They’re starting the conversations,” he said. “They’re ready, willing and able. They’re just being cautious with their decision making.”
Jones said her advice to potential homebuyers is to avoid making decisions out of fear.
“I still feel like buying a home is one of the best paths to wealth in this country,” she said. “Do what is best for your life despite the headlines.”
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