Georgia Power’s forecasts questioned amid historic data center-driven expansion

For close to two years, Georgia Power has warned of an unprecedented wave of electricity demand coming to Georgia, driven almost entirely by the voracious energy needs of data centers targeting the Peach State for expansion.

The question is how large of a surge is coming — and how much of the enormous buildout of new power plants, battery storage systems, power lines and other infrastructure the utility is planning is actually needed?

Those issues were at the center of three days of hearings this week at the state Public Service Commission on Georgia Power’s “Integrated Resource Plan,” its road map for generating electricity for the next 20 years.

In March, the utility laid out its case to support the plan in front of the PSC. This week, witnesses for the PSC’s public interest staff — along with clean energy groups, local governments and other stakeholders — had their chance to argue for changes.

The plan will affect the greenhouse gas emissions produced by Georgia Power’s generation fleet for decades. And though rates won’t be set in this case, it will ultimately affect the electricity bills the utility’s 2.8 million customers pay.

The five members of the PSC will get the final say, with a vote set for July 15. As the PSC’s decision approaches, here’s what stood out.

Georgia Power’s leaders say the company sees historic electricity demand growth taking shape. Nearly all of it is coming from data centers.

Georgia Power’s modeling shows peak demand increasing by around 8,200 megawatts by the winter of 2031, creating a need for new capacity roughly equal to the output of eight of Plant Vogtle’s nuclear reactors. Company projections show peak demand rising by an additional 1,200 megawatts by winter 2035.

This week, PSC staff and their enlisted experts said they agree the company’s electricity needs are growing. But they said flaws in the utility’s modeling methods have led it to overestimate demand, especially from data centers and cryptocurrency facilities.

“We conclude that the forecast produced by Georgia Power is likely skewed to show load realization earlier and in greater quantity than is likely to materialize,” Robert Trokey, the director of the PSC’s electric division, testified.

Witnesses testifying on behalf of clean energy groups raised similar concerns.

It’s not the first time there have been questions about the company’s projections. An analysis by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution found Georgia Power’s projections often overshot actual peak demands for its electricity.

The company has said it uses the best models it has available for forecasting.

Brandon Marzo, an attorney with the law firm Troutman Pepper Locke representing Georgia Power, pushed back on staff’s findings during cross-examination, calling them “snap judgments.”

Marzo highlighted the risk of potential electricity shortages and argued the staff’s conclusions were based on a small sample size.

“In this case, staff is proposing to make a 2,000 megawatt adjustment to the company’s forecast, which could have horrific impacts if wrong...” Marzo said.

Trokey disagreed, saying he did not believe the staff’s recommendation would result in “horrific impacts.”

Staff witnesses’ conclusions also seemed to irk Commissioner Tricia Pridemore. In one of the testiest moments of the hearings, Pridemore went after Trokey and the other witnesses, asking whether they “just don’t want to see any growth?”

“I hear this sort of like clamor, clatter ... that ‘this isn’t real, this isn’t going to materialize, this is all fake and everybody’s double-counting,’ when the reality is absolutely not,” Pridemore said.

Karan Pol, an energy consultant testifying for the PSC’s public interest staff, said that was not their view.

“Staff’s forecast that’s projected still shows pretty significant load growth,” Pol said, adding that “the disagreement between staff and the company is just a matter of degrees of materialization.”

To help meet data center demands, Georgia Power is asking the PSC to allow it to keep coal power plants running, along with modernizing and boosting the capacity at several existing nuclear, gas and hydropower plants. The company also wants to start accepting bids for more power supplies later this year.

But an even bigger buildout of its generation fleet is already in the offing.

Georgia Power is weighing competitive bids to add as much as 8,500 megawatts of new generating capacity between 2029 and 2031. The company has shared little publicly about what fuel sources it’s considering, but Georgia Power staff indicated in earlier hearings that new gas-fired plants are likely to play a role. The utility plans to reveal which options it’s selected in July.

During Tuesday’s hearing, former PSC Commissioner Robert Baker, who now represents energy consultant Resource Supply Management before the commission, asked staff whether an expansion like the one Georgia Power is planning has ever been seen in company history.

“The answer is probably no,” said Tom Newsome, the PSC’s director of utility finance.

Newsome and other staff witnesses said their view was that not all of the new power supplies Georgia Power wants to bring online are needed. They recommended approval of much of the company’s request, but said the PSC should limit the 8,500 megawatts it wants to add by 2031 to around 6,000 megawatts.

Staff also recommended the PSC reject Georgia Power’s plans to modernize its fleet of hydroelectric dams, calling the company’s request “too broad in both cost and scope.” They also advised the commission to order the company to delay upgrades to Plant Hatch’s nuclear units in southeast Georgia.

“We’re pushing back on some of the expansion plan the company is proposing,” Newsome said. “There’s a reason for that, and part of it is just the amount of money involved.”