At the halfway point of this season nearly all of Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan's statistics look pretty much like they usually look and, in some respects, better. See chart below.
(Throw out Ryan’s rookie year and his second season, which are outliers, and he’s still pretty much producing like he always has. From 2010 until now he has a 65.5 completion percentage and a 2.2 interception percentage with 7.2 yards per attempt, 11.1 yards per completion, and TD percentage of 4.6.)
Yet critics believe Ryan’s game has been off this season even if his stats look pretty much the same.
“Don’t get fooled by the big numbers Matt Ryan put up,” NBC analyst Rodney Harrison said during halftime of NBC Sunday Night Football. “He’s getting worse as the season progresses.”
Ryan's statistics don't support that view, except for one big exception: Fumble rate. Ryan already has put the ball on the ground six times. After eight games he's already tied his rookie season for the most fumbles in his career. (Just three of his fumbles this season have been recovered but, once the ball is on the ground, who gets it is a matter of luck.)
Ryan has fumbled on 1.2 percent of his 509 snaps played this season. If he keeps fumbling at that rate while playing 1,000 snaps, he will have a whopping 12 fumbles after 16 games. And by my (subjective) count, Ryan has been responsible for 4 ½ of his six fumbles this season.
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Ryan’s first fumble against the Bucs came on a botched handoff to Devonta Freeman in the red zone. There was confusion on this play: Ryan appeared as if he wanted to fake the handoff and pass to Julio Jones. But center Mike Person immediately ran out to the linebacker as if to run block, so a pass likely would have been nullified by penalty anyway. Give Ryan half blame for that fumble.
On Ryan’s second fumble against the Bucs, with the Falcons facing a loss if they didn’t score, he was attempting to pass on second down with defensive lineman Howard Jones grabbing his throwing arm and wrestling him to the ground. It was a bad decision by Ryan that Freeman mitigated by recovering the fumble.
Ryan had three fumbles against the Saints, and in my view two were his fault.
The Falcons were at the Saints’ 39-yard line when Ryan forced a fumble himself by hitting the ball against fullback Patrick DiMarco’s shoulder while attempting to hand off to Freeman. On Ryan’s second fumble he was hit from behind by a pass rusher but I say that's his bad for holding the ball for about four seconds before attempting to throw to his check down receiver. (Ryan had no chance when he was hit in the pocket on his third fumble and it came in garbage time, anyway, so throw it out.)
Against Washington, Ryan fumbled when he scrambled away from pressure and had the ball ripped away as he was tackled. Once he became a runner, Ryan had to protect the ball with the knowledge that defenders were going to paw at it.
Ryan isn’t the only Falcons player with a fumbling problem (looking at you Julio Jones) but he’s putting the ball on the ground at a shockingly high rate for his position. Unlike players at the other skill positions, Ryan isn’t taking hits nearly every time he touches the ball. And a look at the circumstances of his fumbles this season shows that most of them have been his fault.
Ryan’s production and efficiency are about the same as always. But he's fumbling way more than normal and he has to take better care of the football if the offense is going to reach its potential.
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