Nobody – well, nobody I know, and I’m sure he/she would have bragged about it by now – saw the worst-to-first of 1991 coming. I don’t see something similar happening now. (Although this wouldn’t technically be worst-to-first; believe it or not, the Braves were the National League’s 10th-best team last year.) I do, however, see this as the season when things begin to get good again.
The trailblazers for the Braves’ rebuild were the Astros and the Cubs. The former had seasons of 106, 107, 111 and 90 losses; then an 86-win season that yielded a wild card; then a retreat to 84 wins and a 101-win season that brought Houston its first World Series crown. The latter had seasons of 91, 101, 96 and 89 losses; then a 97-win season that yielded a wild card and a 103-win season that brought the first World Series title since 1908 to Chicago’s North Side.
The Astros hired Jeff Luhnow after the 106-loss season of 2011 and proceeded to lose even more, the difference being that Luhnow’s losing was by design. The Cubs hired Theo Epstein after the 91-loss season of 2011 and lost 10 more games the next year, also by design. The time it took the Astros to go from 111 losses to the World Series – four years. The time it took the Cubs to go from 101 losses to the World Series – four years.
The past four seasons saw the Braves go 79-83, 67-95, 68-93 and 72-90. The first came under Frank Wren, under whom the losing wasn’t intentional. The next three were the resulting reset overseen by John Coppolella and John Hart, both of whom are likewise gone. If we go by the timetables of the past two champs, the Braves should be looking at 100 wins in 2019, which isn’t that far away.
Obvious caveat: Even the Astros and Cubs weren’t sure when/if their moments of arrival would come. They had done the groundwork. They tanked to better their drafting position. Each hooked a franchise player – Carlos Correa, the 1-1 pick in 2012, and Kris Bryant, the 1-2 draftee in 2013. Each also got lucky. The Astros took Dallas Keuchel in Round 7 of the 2009 draft; the Cubs acquired Jake Arrieta from Baltimore in a pre-deadline trade in 2013. Those were your 2015 Cy Young winners.
Because the Braves’ rebuild was predicated on pitching, there’s a chance it will take longer. (Bats project better than arms.) The first wave of homegrown pitchers – as opposed to those plucked from other teams – hasn’t yet hit, but Mike Soroka, Kolby Allard and Kyle Wright could be here by season’s end. The fruits of Coppolella’s manic dealing already is on display. Dansby Swanson, Mike Foltynewicz, Rio Ruiz, Sean Newcomb and Luis Gohara have already reached the majors. So has Ozzie Albies, inherited from Wren. Ronald Acuna, also inherited, missed marking the opening-day roster only because baseball is weird.
The Astros and Cubs built excellent farm systems. Coppolella built a better one. Even after losing 13 prospects – more than half a minor-league roster – as a penalty for the violations that got the architect banned for life, Baseball America still ranks this as the No. 1 chain. It’s noteworthy that Alex Anthopoulos, Coppolella’s successor, has yet to offload a single significant prospect.
That Anthopoulos spent his first Braves offseason keeping his powder dry suggests that he knows he fell into much worth keeping. It also suggests that he wants to see how his Year 1 begins before going to market. The Braves didn’t buy Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb, starting pitchers who might have fleshed out this rotation. They didn’t pursue Mike Moustakas, who might have started at third base. The biggest additions were starters Brandon McCarthy and Scott Kazmir, who came in the two-way salary dump for Matt Kemp, and Anibal Sanchez, who signed a minor-league deal last week. (Oh, and Peter Moylan, who never really goes away.)
The guess is that, for the new general manager, the first half of 2018 will be a time of watchful waiting. If the Braves can hang around .500 into July, he’ll be a deadline buyer. This is no longer an organization that’s three years away. This team is getting close to being a winner. An everyday lineup of Albies, Acuna, Swanson, Tyler Flowers/Kurt Suzuki, Ender Inciarte and Freddie Freeman isn’t chopped liver. The pitching could get really good really soon.
You wouldn’t pick this team to win the National League East. (One more year at the top for Washington before Bryce Harper takes his leave.) Neither would you pick it to finish last. For the first time in a while, there’s reason to believe that the Braves – at the major-league level – are on to something. Happy days could be here again, and very soon.
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