Georgia is No. 6 in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings. Alabama is No. 5. File this under useless knowledge.
Repeat after me: If the Bulldogs win Saturday, they’re in. There’s a chance Alabama could likewise make it, but not at Georgia’s expense. By beating No. 2 Auburn, the Bulldogs will have three things Bama would lack – a win over Auburn, a win on the last weekend before the field is set and (this above all) an SEC title. Any of the above would push Georgia ahead of the Crimson Tide.
Alabama can gain admittance if Oklahoma or Wisconsin loses. The ACC winner is in. The SEC winner is in. Even with a victory over the No. 3 Sooners, No. 11 TCU would not be invited. Even with a victory over the No. 4 Badgers, No. 8 Ohio State might not be.
The Alabama vis-à-vis Ohio State issue would be fascinating. Alabama has two wins over ranked opponents, neither among the top 16. If it beats Wisconsin, Ohio State would have three, all among the top 16. The Buckeyes would also be conference champs, something Bama cannot. But they’d still be carrying two losses to the Tide’s one. Neither of the losses was close. Oklahoma won by 15 points in Columbus. Iowa won by 31 in Iowa City.
That Iowa game is the knot the committee mightn’t be able to untie. And, in a neat twist, precedent involving Ohio State might work against Ohio State. By inviting the one-loss Buckeyes over two-loss Penn State, the committee underscored the difference one game can make – and Penn State was the Big Ten champion with a win over Ohio State.
There’s also this. Unbeaten Wisconsin is ranked only No. 4, one spot above Alabama and two slots below two-loss Auburn. How much credit would the Buckeyes get for beating a team of questionable portfolio? Should the Tigers beat Georgia, Alabama’s road loss would look a tad better, assuming losses can ever look good.
When in doubt, the committee has tended to err on the side of a league champ, which would favor Ohio State. But it didn’t last year, and it mightn’t this time. I’d be surprised – not shocked, but surprised – if the Buckeyes make it.
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