Anybody who ever has planted a garden understands there’s a point at which you stare at the dirt and think, “Those plants don’t look so good,” or, “Those plants have a chance,” or possibly, “That’s it, I’m done. Going to Kroger for tomatoes.”
Welcome to 2018. It’s dirt-staring time for the Braves.
Rebuilds require patience. Stripping down a roster and shedding payroll is the easy part. Waiting for growth is the difficulty. But this will be Year 4 after three consecutive seasons of 90 or more losses and even the Braves’ manager understands the organization has reached the “show me” point of this process.
“It’s time to start going,” said Braves manager Brian Snitker, whose own future likely is tied to the team’s success this season. “We’ve been patient. We’ve done our due diligence. But we’re a results business, and it’s time to start playing and winning.”
Check your expectations. The Braves are listed at 100-1 to win the World Series and their over/under for victories, via Las Vegas wiseguys, is no more than 75 wins. There are two reasons for this:
• 1) Their starting pitching rotation is suspect, ranging from recent disappointment (Julio Teheran) to talented but still correcting issues (Mike Foltynewicz) to oft-injured (Brandon McCarthy) to young (Sean Newcomb, Luiz Gohara).
• 2) New general manager Alex Anthopoulos opted not to make any significant roster changes, largely because he didn't have the first-hand knowledge of the prospects that would easily enable him to determine which players to keep and which ones to trade.
When asked what expectations should be for this team, even Anthopoulos shrugs his shoulders.
“Holy smokes. I have no idea,” he said. “When you go around the horn with these guys, you say, ‘Would anybody be surprised if (Ozzie) Albies has a great year?’ Or if (Dansby) Swanson has a great year, or Newcomb or (Luiz) Gohara? These are all young guys, highly touted prospects, tons of talent. But on the flip side you could say, some of these guys may get optioned, they may struggle, they may need more time in the minor leagues. You wouldn’t be surprised by either. That’s the volatility of young players.”
Neither Anthopoulos nor anybody in the executive suite would ever say, “We’re not really trying to win this season.”
But the backdrop of the offseason pretty much screams it.
Teams that win generally are the ones that were aggressive the previous winter to improve on the season before. The Braves did almost nothing after a 72-90 season, except shed Matt Kemp's contract.
They were not aggressive because they were too paralyzed by front-office upheaval. The international signing scandal stripped them of a dozen prospects and burned millions from the budget. Several employees, including John Hart and John Coppolella, lost their jobs.
When Anthopoulos was hired from the Los Angeles Dodgers, he understood the roster's problems as well as anybody. But a wise general manager doesn't move too quickly until he has a clear understanding of the organization's assets -- in this case, especially the young prospects.
This is where we note that most team’s overvalue their own prospects, so it’s dangerous to assume that Anthopoulos would share the same view about a player that Coppolella did.
Anthopoulos conceded that even scouts within the Braves’ offices have varying opinions on individual players. He’s not yet prepared to break the ties. In a way, the front-office changes may have slowed the Braves’ building process because Hart and Coppolella had formed opinions on the prospects and possibly determined which to use as trade assets (which is not to say they would’ve been correct).
Anthpoulos said he frequently considering pursuing players in free agency or trade in the offseason – a third baseman, an outfielder, starting pitchers, relievers. He held countless discussions with his staff.
“The biggest thing we kept coming back to is our young players,” he said. “Ultimately, it was either going to push a young player to the minor leagues or a bench role. We would come back and ask, ‘Is it the right thing if this player is optioned (to the minors)? But these guys have had their time in the minors. If they spend another year down there, we’re not going to have any more answers next year than we do now. That’s why I’ve said repeatedly 2018 is pretty important to know who’s going to be part of our core moving forward.”
Translation: This is intended to be a learning year, not a winning year. That doesn’t mean the Braves can’t win. Maybe Teheran and Foltynewicz stabilize and the young pitchers hit. Maybe the bullpen isn’t a nightly brush fire. Maybe Dansby Swanson bounces back and Ronald Acuna proves to be all that.
But the Braves have to show something. Quickly. Atlanta area sports fans always will focus on two things: college football and something else. The Braves have a small window to become that something else this season. The buzz over a new stadium not surprisingly waned late last season.
The only thing that will get the excitement back now is winning. “But look at our prospect rankings,” is yesterday’s rallying cry.
Veteran outfielder Nick Markakis, who survived his annual winter of trade rumors, said the team isn’t conceding anything. He’s an athlete. He should have that mindset, especially in the spring.
“Expectations are just things that people think,” he said. “Expectations are up to us. We’re the ones who need to go out there and do what we’re supposed to do.”
They’re supposed to grow. Seeds don’t win, players do.
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