Sports

Maxwell Week 2 Summary: Ratings fairly consistent at the top

By Loren Maxwell
Aug 29, 2016

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 421 teams throughout the 2016 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:

- The ratings remain fairly consistent after the second week of play. The only two changes among top teams are Calhoun dropping to second in AAA following a loss to AAAAAA Dalton, making room for Greater Atlanta Christian to takeover the top spot, and Clinch County rising to number one on Class A - Public after the previous number one, Irwin County, fell 56-19 to Fitzgerald, the second highest rated team in AA.

- Although not counted in the ratings, Colquitt County dropped their second game of the season, this time to American Heritage out of Plantation, Florida. This marks the worst start for the Packers since going 0-3 in 2010. The result of that season? Eventually a run all the way to the finals before losing to Brookwood. The season simulator says the Packers still have about a 59% chance of making the semifinals again, a 34% chance of making it to the finals, and a 22% chance of winning their third straight title. Their biggest obstacle? Mill Creek, who will land on the same side of the bracket if both teams win their respective regions.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 54.25%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 277 of 297 total games including 3 tie(s) (93.77%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.28 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.

Home Advantage: 2.46

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Mill Creek 2-0 93.69 1 Valdosta 2-0 80.92
2 Colquitt County 0-2 92.75 2 Dacula 1-0 75.36
3 Roswell 1-0 90.30 3 Lee County 2-0 72.47
4 McEachern 1-0 88.84 4 Northside (Warner Robins) 2-0 72.38
5 Grayson 0-1 88.45 5 Houston County 2-0 69.15
6 Archer 1-1 83.12 6 Dalton 1-0 68.81
7 Peachtree Ridge 1-1 76.69 7 Hughes 2-0 68.32
8 Norcross 2-0 76.68 8 Coffee 2-0 67.23
9 Brookwood 2-0 74.78 9 Glynn Academy 1-1 67.07
10 Lowndes 1-1 72.29 10 Mays 0-1 66.93
11 Camden County 0-2 72.22 11 Allatoona 0-2 65.55
12 North Cobb 2-0 71.25 12 Tucker 1-1 65.25
13 Parkview 2-0 71.19 13 Alexander 1-0 65.02
14 Hillgrove 1-0 70.83 14 Creekside 1-0 63.01
15 North Gwinnett 1-1 70.51 15 Harrison 2-0 62.70
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 0-1 82.11 1 Cartersville 1-0 80.11
2 Stockbridge 1-0 71.84 2 Sandy Creek 0-1 70.95
3 Kell 1-0 69.88 3 Blessed Trinity 2-0 70.30
4 Ware County 0-1 65.98 4 Woodward Academy 1-1 65.95
5 Carrollton 1-0 63.26 5 Jefferson 2-0 64.38
6 Jones County 1-1 61.51 6 St. Pius X 0-1 63.62
7 Grady 2-0 58.50 7 Marist 0-1 61.00
8 Bainbridge 0-1 57.96 8 Thomson 2-0 60.00
9 Carver (Atlanta) 2-0 57.19 9 Carver (Columbus) 1-1 56.80
10 Thomas County Central 2-0 55.40 10 Mary Persons 1-1 56.60
11 Griffin 1-0 55.27 11 Burke County 2-0 55.83
12 Rome 0-1 54.58 12 West Laurens 1-0 52.90
13 Starr's Mill 0-1 53.95 13 Cairo 1-0 52.64
14 East Paulding 0-1 53.83 14 Eastside 1-0-1 50.87
15 Southwest DeKalb 2-0 53.12 15 Oconee County 1-0 50.70
AAA AA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Greater Atlanta Christian 2-0 70.09 1 Benedictine 1-0 72.35
2 Calhoun 1-1 63.46 2 Fitzgerald 1-0 63.11
3 Lovett 1-1 60.27 3 Brooks County 1-0 57.83
4 Pace Academy 1-0 59.13 4 Callaway 2-0 56.95
5 Cedar Grove 1-1 58.42 5 Elbert County 1-0-1 53.67
6 Westminster (Atlanta) 0-2 56.82 6 Jefferson County 2-0 53.44
7 Hart County 0-0-1 52.25 7 Vidalia 2-0 51.46
8 Peach County 0-1 52.00 8 Rabun County 0-0 45.56
9 Monroe 1-0 48.81 9 Dodge County 0-1 44.73
10 Liberty County 1-0 48.64 10 Early County 0-1 42.05
11 Pierce County 1-0 46.01 11 Washington County 0-1 41.64
12 Worth County 1-1 44.80 12 Laney 0-2 39.83
13 Cook 0-2 44.70 13 Lamar County 1-0 39.46
14 Jackson 1-1 43.74 14 Model 1-0 39.38
15 Crisp County 2-0 43.72 15 Thomasville 0-2 38.80
A - Public A - Private
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Clinch County 2-0 47.59 1 Eagle's Landing Christian 2-0 59.81
2 Macon County 1-0 46.22 2 Prince Avenue Christian 2-0 54.27
3 Irwin County 1-1 43.98 3 Wesleyan 2-0 46.60
4 Emanuel County Institute 2-0 42.57 4 Aquinas 1-1 46.16
5 Marion County 2-0 40.15 5 Darlington 1-0 42.20
6 Commerce 1-0 38.71 6 Landmark Christian 1-0 40.11
7 Manchester 2-0 36.52 7 Calvary Day 2-0 39.73
8 Mount Zion (Carroll) 1-0 34.94 8 Mount Pisgah Christian 1-0 36.62
9 Lincoln County 1-0 34.89 9 Stratford Academy 1-0 36.61
10 Bowdon 1-0 34.76 10 Mount Paran Christian 1-1 36.17
11 Trion 1-0 32.22 11 Savannah Christian 1-1 35.21
12 Charlton County 0-1 31.57 12 First Presbyterian 1-0 33.31
13 McIntosh County Academy 1-1 31.51 13 Fellowship Christian 2-0 33.15
14 Turner County 1-1 31.20 14 Pinecrest Academy 0-1 31.76
15 Washington-Wilkes 0-1 30.35 15 Athens Academy 1-0 29.22

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Mill Creek 6 - AAAAAAA 2-0 93.69 76.23 8
2 [2] Colquitt County 1 - AAAAAAA 0-2 92.75 93.69 1
3 [3] Roswell 4 - AAAAAAA 1-0 90.30 82.11 6
4 [4] McEachern 3 - AAAAAAA 1-0 88.84 83.12 3
5 [5] Grayson 8 - AAAAAAA 0-1 88.45 0.00 0
6 [6] Archer 8 - AAAAAAA 1-1 83.12 82.76 5
7 [1] Buford 8 - AAAAA 0-1 82.11 90.30 2
8 [1] Valdosta 1 - AAAAAA 2-0 80.92 61.53 48
9 [1] Cartersville 5 - AAAA 1-0 80.11 65.55 34
10 [7] Peachtree Ridge 6 - AAAAAAA 1-1 76.69 83.12 4
11 [8] Norcross 7 - AAAAAAA 2-0 76.68 62.54 44
12 [2] Dacula 8 - AAAAAA 1-0 75.36 60.86 50
13 [9] Brookwood 7 - AAAAAAA 2-0 74.78 66.33 29
14 [3] Lee County 1 - AAAAAA 2-0 72.47 59.73 55
15 [4] Northside (Warner Robins) 1 - AAAAAA 2-0 72.38 37.71 190
16 [1] Benedictine 2 - AA 1-0 72.35 67.07 25
17 [10] Lowndes 1 - AAAAAAA 1-1 72.29 80.92 7
18 [11] Camden County 1 - AAAAAAA 0-2 72.22 0.00 0
19 [2] Stockbridge 4 - AAAAA 1-0 71.84 66.93 28
20 [12] North Cobb 3 - AAAAAAA 2-0 71.25 60.47 51
21 [13] Parkview 7 - AAAAAAA 2-0 71.19 61.62 47
22 [2] Sandy Creek 5 - AAAA 0-1 70.95 0.00 0
23 [14] Hillgrove 3 - AAAAAAA 1-0 70.83 59.32 57
24 [15] North Gwinnett 6 - AAAAAAA 1-1 70.51 68.82 21
25 [3] Blessed Trinity 7 - AAAA 2-0 70.30 56.28 76
26 [16] South Gwinnett 8 - AAAAAAA 2-0 70.11 60.24 53
27 [1] Greater Atlanta Christian 7 - AAA 2-0 70.09 58.55 62
28 [3] Kell 7 - AAAAA 1-0 69.88 65.25 35
29 [5] Houston County 1 - AAAAAA 2-0 69.15 54.30 87
30 [6] Dalton 6 - AAAAAA 1-0 68.81 63.46 38
31 [17] Tift County 1 - AAAAAAA 2-0 68.61 45.79 129
32 [7] Hughes 5 - AAAAAA 2-0 68.32 55.34 82
33 [8] Coffee 1 - AAAAAA 2-0 67.23 50.09 107
34 [9] Glynn Academy 2 - AAAAAA 1-1 67.07 69.17 18
35 [10] Mays 5 - AAAAAA 0-1 66.93 71.84 15
36 [18] Etowah 4 - AAAAAAA 1-1 66.49 47.93 116
37 [4] Ware County 2 - AAAAA 0-1 65.98 67.07 26
38 [4] Woodward Academy 4 - AAAA 1-1 65.95 57.66 67
39 [19] North Paulding 3 - AAAAAAA 2-0 65.91 53.23 95
40 [20] East Coweta 2 - AAAAAAA 1-0 65.87 57.26 69
41 [11] Allatoona 6 - AAAAAA 0-2 65.55 72.56 12
42 [21] Westlake 2 - AAAAAAA 0-1 65.44 70.78 16
43 [12] Tucker 4 - AAAAAA 1-1 65.25 48.81 114
44 [13] Alexander 5 - AAAAAA 1-0 65.02 65.55 33
45 [5] Jefferson 8 - AAAA 2-0 64.38 33.39 218
46 [6] St. Pius X 8 - AAAA 0-1 63.62 70.30 17
47 [2] Calhoun 6 - AAA 1-1 63.46 46.33 125
48 [5] Carrollton 7 - AAAAA 1-0 63.26 58.63 59
49 [2] Fitzgerald 1 - AA 1-0 63.11 43.98 146
50 [14] Creekside 5 - AAAAAA 1-0 63.01 0.00 0
51 [22] Collins Hill 6 - AAAAAAA 0-2 62.92 69.15 20
52 [23] Milton 5 - AAAAAAA 1-1 62.85 65.63 31
53 [15] Harrison 6 - AAAAAA 2-0 62.70 54.20 89
54 [24] Walton 4 - AAAAAAA 0-2 62.16 75.73 10
55 [25] Shiloh 8 - AAAAAAA 1-1 61.62 67.05 27
56 [6] Jones County 4 - AAAAA 1-1 61.51 57.05 71
57 [7] Marist 7 - AAAA 0-1 61.00 60.27 52
58 [26] Central Gwinnett 7 - AAAAAAA 0-2 60.86 72.73 11
59 [16] Alpharetta 7 - AAAAAA 1-1 60.75 58.21 64
60 [17] Northgate 5 - AAAAAA 1-0 60.48 40.14 172
61 [27] Newton 8 - AAAAAAA 1-0-1 60.37 48.85 112
62 [3] Lovett 5 - AAA 1-1 60.27 65.55 32
63 [8] Thomson 3 - AAAA 2-0 60.00 44.03 145
64 [1] Eagle's Landing Christian 5 - A 2-0 59.81 41.19 166
65 [18] Stephenson 4 - AAAAAA 0-2 59.72 76.06 9
66 [19] Lanier 8 - AAAAAA 1-1 59.62 57.84 65
67 [28] South Forsyth 5 - AAAAAAA 1-1 59.32 51.30 103
68 [4] Pace Academy 5 - AAA 1-0 59.13 55.44 80
69 [29] Newnan 2 - AAAAAAA 1-1 58.63 58.60 61
70 [7] Grady 6 - AAAAA 2-0 58.50 45.60 131
71 [5] Cedar Grove 5 - AAA 1-1 58.42 56.42 75
72 [8] Bainbridge 1 - AAAAA 0-1 57.96 72.47 13
73 [3] Brooks County 1 - AA 1-0 57.83 44.70 140
74 [30] Lassiter 4 - AAAAAAA 2-0 57.82 38.21 185
75 [20] Creekview 6 - AAAAAA 1-0 57.41 45.51 132
76 [21] Lovejoy 4 - AAAAAA 1-1 57.26 56.79 73
77 [9] Carver (Atlanta) 6 - AAAAA 2-0 57.19 36.03 201
78 [4] Callaway 5 - AA 2-0 56.95 46.82 121
79 [6] Westminster (Atlanta) 5 - AAA 0-2 56.82 68.02 23
80 [9] Carver (Columbus) 1 - AAAA 1-1 56.80 31.48 229
81 [10] Mary Persons 2 - AAAA 1-1 56.60 56.44 74
82 [22] South Paulding 5 - AAAAAA 0-1 55.90 65.91 30
83 [11] Burke County 3 - AAAA 2-0 55.83 39.07 178
84 [31] West Forsyth 5 - AAAAAAA 1-1 55.44 54.67 86
85 [10] Thomas County Central 1 - AAAAA 2-0 55.40 41.80 161
86 [11] Griffin 3 - AAAAA 1-0 55.27 46.39 124
87 [23] Centennial 7 - AAAAAA 1-0 55.09 54.14 90
88 [32] Mountain View 6 - AAAAAAA 2-0 54.79 35.58 205
89 [12] Rome 7 - AAAAA 0-1 54.58 62.70 43
90 [33] Cherokee 4 - AAAAAAA 1-1 54.44 55.62 79
91 [2] Prince Avenue Christian 8 - A 2-0 54.27 24.04 286
92 [34] Wheeler 2 - AAAAAAA 1-1 54.14 52.01 99
93 [13] Starr's Mill 3 - AAAAA 0-1 53.95 58.63 60
94 [14] East Paulding 7 - AAAAA 0-1 53.83 62.70 42
95 [5] Elbert County 8 - AA 1-0-1 53.67 41.30 164
96 [24] Gainesville 8 - AAAAAA 1-1 53.56 46.18 126
97 [6] Jefferson County 4 - AA 2-0 53.44 39.01 179
98 [15] Southwest DeKalb 5 - AAAAA 2-0 53.12 45.89 128
99 [12] West Laurens 2 - AAAA 1-0 52.90 46.48 123
100 [16] Locust Grove 4 - AAAAA 1-0 52.68 46.93 120
101 [13] Cairo 1 - AAAA 1-0 52.64 38.80 180
102 [35] Lambert 5 - AAAAAAA 0-1 52.32 54.79 85
103 [7] Hart County 8 - AAA 0-0-1 52.25 53.67 92
104 [8] Peach County 4 - AAA 0-1 52.00 69.15 19
105 [25] Brunswick 2 - AAAAAA 0-1 51.95 67.23 24
106 [7] Vidalia 2 - AA 2-0 51.46 42.71 155
107 [14] Eastside 4 - AAAA 1-0-1 50.87 45.76 130
108 [17] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 - AAAAA 1-1 50.77 55.24 84
109 [15] Oconee County 8 - AAAA 1-0 50.70 44.71 139
110 [18] Paulding County 7 - AAAAA 1-1 50.55 55.71 78
111 [36] Woodstock 4 - AAAAAAA 0-1 50.21 55.44 81
112 [19] Whitewater 3 - AAAAA 1-0 49.92 29.55 241
113 [37] Marietta 3 - AAAAAAA 0-2 48.94 62.22 46
114 [20] Arabia Mountain 5 - AAAAA 2-0 48.92 21.50 300
115 [9] Monroe 1 - AAA 1-0 48.81 40.68 169
116 [10] Liberty County 2 - AAA 1-0 48.64 24.11 283
117 [21] Cass 7 - AAAAA 1-0 48.31 33.54 215
118 [16] Stephens County 8 - AAAA 1-0 48.25 28.80 246
119 [26] Effingham County 2 - AAAAAA 0-2 48.23 63.61 37
120 [27] Mundy's Mill 4 - AAAAAA 0-2 47.72 62.79 41
121 [1] Clinch County 2 - A 2-0 47.59 24.72 279
122 [17] Upson-Lee 2 - AAAA 1-0 47.11 35.68 204
123 [22] Warner Robins 1 - AAAAA 0-2 46.93 62.53 45
124 [23] South Effingham 2 - AAAAA 0-1 46.88 68.61 22
125 [28] Drew 4 - AAAAAA 0-2 46.82 52.51 98
126 [18] LaGrange 5 - AAAA 1-1 46.82 49.49 108
127 [24] Riverwood 6 - AAAAA 0-1 46.82 64.38 36
128 [25] Loganville 8 - AAAAA 1-0 46.77 24.45 280
129 [3] Wesleyan 5 - A 2-0 46.60 26.31 271
130 [26] Wayne County 2 - AAAAA 0-1 46.48 52.90 97
131 [19] Spalding 2 - AAAA 0-1 46.39 55.27 83
132 [2] Macon County 4 - A 1-0 46.22 25.58 276
133 [4] Aquinas 7 - A 1-1 46.16 47.05 119
134 [11] Pierce County 2 - AAA 1-0 46.01 26.43 268
135 [20] Pickens 6 - AAAA 1-0 45.90 37.17 193
136 [29] Sprayberry 6 - AAAAAA 1-0 45.71 18.85 312
137 [30] Northview 7 - AAAAAA 0-1 45.58 59.62 56
138 [8] Rabun County 8 - AA 0-0 45.56 0.00 0
139 [31] Cambridge 7 - AAAAAA 0-1 45.51 57.41 68
140 [32] New Manchester 5 - AAAAAA 0-1 45.50 50.55 104
141 [33] Douglas County 5 - AAAAAA 1-0 44.81 22.03 295
142 [12] Worth County 1 - AAA 1-1 44.80 43.30 151
143 [9] Dodge County 3 - AA 0-1 44.73 51.46 102
144 [27] Clarke Central 8 - AAAAA 1-1 44.71 44.40 142
145 [13] Cook 1 - AAA 0-2 44.70 63.22 40
146 [28] Riverdale 3 - AAAAA 2-0 44.65 38.50 182
147 [29] Hiram 7 - AAAAA 1-0 44.61 38.16 187
148 [3] Irwin County 2 - A 1-1 43.98 41.65 162
149 [30] Dutchtown 4 - AAAAA 0-1 43.74 42.17 158
150 [14] Jackson 4 - AAA 1-1 43.74 41.08 167
151 [15] Crisp County 1 - AAA 2-0 43.72 28.25 253
152 [38] Pebblebrook 2 - AAAAAAA 1-0 43.39 36.44 197
153 [34] Johns Creek 7 - AAAAAA 1-1 42.99 48.93 111
154 [35] Richmond Hill 2 - AAAAAA 1-0 42.94 29.98 237
155 [16] North Hall 7 - AAA 2-0 42.87 32.40 220
156 [21] Northwest Whitfield 6 - AAAA 2-0 42.83 21.62 299
157 [36] Lakeside (Evans) 3 - AAAAAA 0-2 42.81 53.44 94
158 [4] Emanuel County Institute 3 - A 2-0 42.57 25.88 274
159 [5] Darlington 6 - A 1-0 42.20 0.00 0
160 [31] Ola 4 - AAAAA 2-0 42.17 29.97 238
161 [10] Early County 1 - AA 0-1 42.05 0.00 0
162 [32] Eagle's Landing 4 - AAAAA 0-1 42.05 59.81 54
163 [33] Villa Rica 7 - AAAAA 1-1 42.04 43.50 149
164 [37] M.L. King 4 - AAAAAA 1-1 41.84 44.40 143
165 [34] Flowery Branch 8 - AAAAA 0-1 41.67 42.87 154
166 [35] Miller Grove 5 - AAAAA 2-0 41.66 -3.23 385
167 [11] Washington County 3 - AA 0-1 41.64 61.51 49
168 [38] Evans 3 - AAAAAA 0-1 41.55 0.00 0
169 [36] Harris County 1 - AAAAA 1-1 41.32 38.25 184
170 [37] McIntosh 3 - AAAAA 2-0 41.25 32.24 221
171 [39] Tri-Cities 5 - AAAAAA 0-1 40.82 57.19 70
172 [17] Appling County 2 - AAA 0-1 40.68 51.46 101
173 [22] Westover 1 - AAAA 0-1 40.68 48.81 113
174 [18] Westside (Macon) 4 - AAA 1-1 40.36 29.02 243
175 [40] Jonesboro 4 - AAAAAA 0-2 40.33 45.30 134
176 [23] Ridgeland 6 - AAAA 1-0 40.20 33.54 216
177 [24] Central (Carrollton) 5 - AAAA 0-2 40.17 42.04 160
178 [5] Marion County 4 - A 2-0 40.15 6.26 362
179 [38] Veterans 1 - AAAAA 0-2 40.14 49.47 109
180 [6] Landmark Christian 5 - A 1-0 40.11 28.57 252
181 [25] Salem 4 - AAAA 1-0 40.10 29.70 239
182 [39] North Forsyth 5 - AAAAAAA 1-1 40.03 41.49 163
183 [41] Sequoyah 6 - AAAAAA 0-2 39.98 47.24 117
184 [39] Columbia 5 - AAAAA 1-1 39.88 34.65 209
185 [12] Laney 4 - AA 0-2 39.83 53.08 96
186 [7] Calvary Day 3 - A 2-0 39.73 0.33 378
187 [40] Statesboro 2 - AAAAA 0-1 39.50 55.83 77
188 [13] Lamar County 5 - AA 1-0 39.46 23.45 290
189 [14] Model 7 - AA 1-0 39.38 26.93 266
190 [15] Thomasville 1 - AA 0-2 38.80 54.02 91
191 [6] Commerce 8 - A 1-0 38.71 16.05 320
192 [42] Grovetown 3 - AAAAAA 1-1 38.65 45.34 133
193 [16] Dublin 3 - AA 2-0 38.47 33.60 214
194 [26] Hardaway 1 - AAAA 2-0 38.25 37.81 189
195 [27] Baldwin 3 - AAAA 2-0 38.16 20.78 302
196 [40] Kennesaw Mountain 3 - AAAAAAA 0-1 38.16 44.61 141
197 [43] Winder-Barrow 8 - AAAAAA 1-1 38.10 33.28 219
198 [28] Northside (Columbus) 1 - AAAA 1-0 37.55 19.06 311
199 [17] Heard County 5 - AA 2-0 37.43 11.45 344
200 [44] Chattahoochee 7 - AAAAAA 1-1 37.17 38.35 183
201 [8] Mount Pisgah Christian 6 - A 1-0 36.62 26.11 272
202 [9] Stratford Academy 7 - A 1-0 36.61 12.02 340
203 [7] Manchester 4 - A 2-0 36.52 20.78 303
204 [45] South Cobb 6 - AAAAAA 1-1 36.44 34.00 213
205 [10] Mount Paran Christian 6 - A 1-1 36.17 26.64 267
206 [41] Fayette County 3 - AAAAA 0-0-1 36.13 34.83 207
207 [29] Perry 2 - AAAA 1-0 35.82 18.06 315
208 [30] Shaw 1 - AAAA 0-1 35.68 47.11 118
209 [19] Central (Macon) 4 - AAA 1-0 35.64 13.12 336
210 [18] Screven County 4 - AA 0-1 35.59 0.00 0
211 [20] Dawson County 7 - AAA 1-0 35.41 31.67 225
212 [11] Savannah Christian 3 - A 1-1 35.21 31.40 230
213 [8] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 - A 1-0 34.94 0.00 0
214 [9] Lincoln County 7 - A 1-0 34.89 0.00 0
215 [31] North Oconee 8 - AAAA 0-1 34.85 38.65 181
216 [32] Chapel Hill 5 - AAAA 0-0-1 34.83 36.13 200
217 [10] Bowdon 6 - A 1-0 34.76 23.16 292
218 [42] Cedar Shoals 8 - AAAAA 1-0 34.40 19.95 306
219 [33] Troup 5 - AAAA 1-1 34.29 28.65 251
220 [46] Alcovy 3 - AAAAAA 2-0 34.01 27.13 262
221 [43] Decatur 6 - AAAAA 1-1 33.69 30.27 235
222 [21] Adairsville 6 - AAA 0-2 33.54 44.25 144
223 [47] Pope 7 - AAAAAA 0-1 33.43 57.82 66
224 [22] Redan 5 - AAA 1-1 33.35 42.18 157
225 [12] First Presbyterian 7 - A 1-0 33.31 25.58 277
226 [34] Columbus 1 - AAAA 1-0 33.19 14.25 331
227 [13] Fellowship Christian 6 - A 2-0 33.15 27.33 260
228 [19] Southwest 3 - AA 1-0 32.47 40.36 170
229 [41] Duluth 6 - AAAAAAA 1-1 32.25 27.13 261
230 [11] Trion 6 - A 1-0 32.22 9.22 348
231 [35] Madison County 8 - AAAA 1-0 32.21 25.59 275
232 [48] Habersham Central 8 - AAAAAA 1-0 31.78 20.09 305
233 [14] Pinecrest Academy 6 - A 0-1 31.76 59.32 58
234 [42] Forsyth Central 5 - AAAAAAA 0-1 31.67 35.41 206
235 [23] Jenkins 3 - AAA 1-0 31.64 9.36 347
236 [36] West Hall 7 - AAAA 1-1 31.61 28.96 245
237 [12] Charlton County 2 - A 0-1 31.57 27.00 265
238 [13] McIntosh County Academy 3 - A 1-1 31.51 37.30 192
239 [20] Spencer 5 - AA 0-1 31.48 56.80 72
240 [24] Union County 7 - AAA 1-0 31.42 19.55 310
241 [44] Lithonia 5 - AAAAA 0-2 31.24 45.27 136
242 [14] Turner County 2 - A 1-1 31.20 31.82 224
243 [37] Luella 4 - AAAA 0-2 31.14 43.69 148
244 [38] Cedartown 5 - AAAA 1-1 31.02 15.21 324
245 [39] Americus-Sumter 1 - AAAA 0-1 30.92 43.72 147
246 [21] Hapeville Charter 6 - AA 1-0 30.88 0.00 0
247 [43] Rockdale County 8 - AAAAAAA 1-1 30.79 28.71 248
248 [49] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 - AAAAAA 1-1 30.79 40.79 168
249 [25] Ringgold 6 - AAA 1-1 30.75 31.86 223
250 [15] Washington-Wilkes 7 - A 0-1 30.35 53.67 93
251 [40] North Clayton 4 - AAAA 1-1 30.18 34.21 210
252 [22] Pepperell 7 - AA 0-0 30.04 0.00 0
253 [26] Southeast Bulloch 3 - AAA 0-1 29.98 42.94 153
254 [50] Heritage (Conyers) 3 - AAAAAA 0-1 29.70 40.10 174
255 [45] Union Grove 4 - AAAAA 0-2 29.55 50.35 105
256 [15] Athens Academy 8 - A 1-0 29.22 14.09 332
257 [27] Franklin County 8 - AAA 1-1 28.80 36.37 198
258 [51] River Ridge 6 - AAAAAA 2-0 28.68 15.83 321
259 [23] B.E.S.T. Academy 6 - AA 0-2 28.57 43.35 150
260 [41] Henry County 4 - AAAA 0-1 28.49 72.38 14
261 [28] Morgan County 8 - AAA 0-1 28.22 26.42 269
262 [16] Athens Christian 8 - A 1-0 28.05 13.73 334
263 [24] Bryan County 2 - AA 1-0 28.03 12.31 337
264 [17] Brookstone 4 - A 1-0 27.85 14.25 330
265 [44] Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 - AAAAAAA 1-1 27.74 41.30 165
266 [16] Hawkinsville 4 - A 1-0 27.49 17.94 316
267 [42] Druid Hills 4 - AAAA 1-1 27.47 29.58 240
268 [43] Richmond Academy 3 - AAAA 1-0 27.39 8.75 352
269 [29] Tattnall County 2 - AAA 1-1 27.06 24.29 281
270 [30] Brantley County 2 - AAA 1-1 27.00 31.54 226
271 [31] Sonoraville 6 - AAA 0-1 26.93 39.38 177
272 [25] Bacon County 2 - AA 0-1 26.43 46.01 127
273 [17] Greene County 7 - A 1-0 26.42 28.22 254
274 [26] Chattooga 7 - AA 1-0 26.22 0.00 0
275 [27] Metter 2 - AA 0-1 26.20 42.57 156
276 [18] Holy Innocents 5 - A 1-1 26.11 22.90 293
277 [32] Jackson County 8 - AAA 1-1 25.59 24.13 282
278 [18] Dooly County 4 - A 0-2 25.58 44.97 137
279 [44] Howard 2 - AAAA 0-2 25.58 36.83 195
280 [28] Swainsboro 2 - AA 0-2 25.55 43.15 152
281 [33] North Murray 6 - AAA 1-0 25.49 20.83 301
282 [52] North Atlanta 7 - AAAAAA 0-1 25.25 58.50 63
283 [19] Pelham 1 - A 2-0 25.22 -2.24 382
284 [45] Southeast Whitfield 6 - AAAA 2-0 24.68 -14.24 396
285 [45] Campbell 2 - AAAAAAA 0-2 24.61 51.46 100
286 [46] White County 7 - AAAA 0-1 24.50 28.80 247
287 [34] Monroe Area 8 - AAA 0-1 24.45 46.77 122
288 [53] Bradwell Institute 2 - AAAAAA 0-1 24.11 48.64 115
289 [20] Gordon Lee 6 - A 1-0 24.09 19.65 308
290 [29] Therrell 6 - AA 1-1 24.05 34.06 211
291 [30] Douglass 6 - AA 0-1 23.85 63.46 39
292 [31] Washington 6 - AA 0-1 23.77 30.18 236
293 [46] Banneker 6 - AAAAA 1-0 23.68 8.39 355
294 [21] Johnson County 3 - A 2-0 23.61 0.62 376
295 [32] Northeast 3 - AA 0-1 23.45 39.46 176
296 [22] Seminole County 1 - A 1-0 23.45 -31.14 401
297 [23] Wilkinson County 7 - A 0-1 23.33 38.16 186
298 [35] Bremen 6 - AAA 0-1 23.16 34.76 208
299 [47] Chestatee 7 - AAAA 1-1 23.12 31.48 228
300 [36] Fannin County 7 - AAA 1-0 22.59 19.55 309
301 [47] Lithia Springs 6 - AAAAA 0-1 22.03 44.81 138
302 [46] Meadowcreek 7 - AAAAAAA 0-1 22.01 34.01 212
303 [48] Walnut Grove 8 - AAAAA 0-1 21.84 38.10 188
304 [24] Telfair County 2 - A 1-0 21.77 8.77 351
305 [49] Maynard Jackson 6 - AAAAA 0-1 21.52 24.05 285
306 [48] Heritage (Ringgold) 6 - AAAA 1-1 20.89 8.02 358
307 [19] Christian Heritage 6 - A 0-1 20.83 25.49 278
308 [47] Berkmar 7 - AAAAAAA 0-2 20.26 31.52 227
309 [20] George Walton Academy 8 - A 1-0 20.24 2.74 374
310 [33] Berrien 1 - AA 1-1 20.18 23.75 287
311 [21] Our Lady of Mercy 5 - A 1-1 20.12 36.17 199
312 [37] East Hall 7 - AAA 0-2 20.09 27.45 258
313 [48] Discovery 6 - AAAAAAA 0-2 19.95 49.39 110
314 [25] Mitchell County 1 - A 1-0 19.92 6.92 360
315 [38] Lumpkin County 7 - AAA 0-0 19.65 0.00 0
316 [34] Dade County 7 - AA 1-1 19.65 24.09 284
317 [49] Gilmer 6 - AAAA 0-2 19.55 27.01 264
318 [35] Coosa 7 - AA 1-0 19.34 -10.16 394
319 [50] Chamblee 5 - AAAAA 0-2 19.29 30.58 233
320 [54] Greenbrier 3 - AAAAAA 1-0 19.07 6.00 364
321 [39] Kendrick 4 - AAA 0-2 19.06 35.92 202
322 [55] Osborne 6 - AAAAAA† 0-2 18.85 50.25 106
323 [40] Dougherty 1 - AAA 0-1 18.84 31.20 231
324 [26] Atkinson County 2 - A 1-1 18.50 21.76 298
325 [51] Woodland (Cartersville) 7 - AAAAA 0-1 18.43 28.68 250
326 [27] Hancock Central 7 - A 1-1 18.23 23.51 289
327 [41] Rutland 4 - AAA 0-1 18.06 35.82 203
328 [36] Bleckley County 3 - AA 0-2 17.94 37.54 191
329 [56] Dunwoody 7 - AAAAAA 0-1 17.34 27.74 257
330 [28] Twiggs County 7 - A 1-0 17.26 14.00 333
331 [42] McNair 5 - AAA 1-0 16.31 -7.62 392
332 [43] Pike County 4 - AAA 0-1 16.21 42.17 159
333 [22] Tattnall Square 7 - A 1-0 16.18 5.89 365
334 [29] Taylor County 4 - A 1-0 16.14 5.28 369
335 [37] Banks County 8 - AA 0-2 16.05 32.15 222
336 [30] Treutlen 3 - A 2-0 15.74 4.86 370
337 [38] Rockmart 7 - AA 1-1 15.21 31.02 232
338 [50] Cross Creek 3 - AAAA 1-1 15.17 6.00 363
339 [39] Jordan 5 - AA 0-2 14.25 30.52 234
340 [23] Walker 6 - A 0-1 14.09 29.22 242
341 [40] Toombs County 2 - AA 1-1 14.00 12.11 339
342 [41] Monticello 8 - AA 0-1 13.73 28.05 255
343 [31] Crawford County 4 - A 1-0 13.69 4.25 371
344 [24] Hebron Christian Academy 8 - A 1-0 13.69 5.39 366
345 [57] Apalachee 8 - AAAAAA 0-1 13.23 28.68 249
346 [25] Mount de Sales 7 - A 1-1 13.12 19.94 307
347 [44] Long County 2 - AAA 1-0 13.05 -6.48 389
348 [52] Hampton 4 - AAAAA 1-0 12.82 11.67 343
349 [32] Miller County 1 - A 1-0 12.56 5.28 368
350 [42] South Atlanta 6 - AA 0-2 12.49 40.13 173
351 [45] Beach 3 - AAA 0-1 12.31 28.03 256
352 [26] Savannah Country Day 3 - A 0-1 12.02 36.61 196
353 [43] K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6 - AA 2-0 11.92 -7.57 391
354 [33] Jenkins County 3 - A 2-0 11.85 -6.41 388
355 [53] Morrow 3 - AAAAA 1-1 11.67 9.02 349
356 [34] Greenville 4 - A 0-2 10.41 36.97 194
357 [35] Warren County 7 - A 1-0 10.40 8.85 350
358 [44] Jeff Davis 2 - AA 0-1 10.37 18.50 314
359 [45] Harlem 4 - AA 1-0 10.15 -22.29 398
360 [36] Claxton 3 - A 0-1 10.12 27.06 263
361 [37] Chattahoochee County 1 - A 0-1 9.60 40.15 171
362 [38] Randolph-Clay 1 - A 1-0 9.55 0.00 0
363 [54] North Springs 6 - AAAAA 0-1 9.39 11.92 341
364 [55] New Hampstead 2 - AAAAA 0-2 9.36 33.42 217
365 [51] LaFayette 6 - AAAA 1-1 9.22 15.32 323
366 [27] St. Francis 6 - A 0-1 9.17 26.11 273
367 [46] Putnam County 8 - AA 0-2 8.85 14.32 329
368 [46] Savannah 3 - AAA 0-1 8.77 21.77 297
369 [47] Westside (Augusta) 4 - AA 0-1 8.75 27.39 259
370 [48] Josey 4 - AA 1-0 8.56 -6.29 387
371 [47] Towers 5 - AAA 0-2 8.39 14.45 327
372 [49] Temple 5 - AA 1-0 8.38 -0.05 380
373 [48] Johnson (Savannah) 3 - AAA 0-1 7.13 39.73 175
374 [28] King's Ridge Christian 6 - A 1-0 7.07 -22.29 399
375 [50] East Laurens 3 - AA 0-2 6.96 18.80 313
376 [51] Albany 1 - AA 0-2 6.92 22.57 294
377 [29] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 - A 1-0 6.47 0.51 377
378 [52] Butler 4 - AA 0-2 6.00 17.12 318
379 [39] Wilcox County 2 - A 0-1 5.89 16.18 319
380 [49] East Jackson 8 - AAA 1-1 5.39 3.87 372
381 [40] Portal 3 - A 0-1 5.30 15.74 322
382 [41] Terrell County 1 - A 0-2 5.28 14.35 328
383 [58] Forest Park 4 - AAAAAA† 1-1 5.22 10.03 345
384 [50] Murray County 6 - AAA 1-0 4.56 -18.31 397
385 [1] Georgia Military College 7 - A† 1-1 4.41 7.03 359
386 [56] Johnson (Gainesville) 8 - AAAAA 0-2 4.35 17.17 317
387 [53] Glenn Hills 4 - AA 1-0 4.28 -6.27 386
388 [30] Pacelli 4 - A 0-2 4.25 13.41 335
389 [42] Lanier County 2 - A 0-1 3.51 20.18 304
390 [43] Schley County 4 - A 1-1 2.93 14.46 326
391 [54] Social Circle 8 - AA 1-1 2.74 12.30 338
392 [31] Riverside Military Academy 8 - A 0-1 1.91 54.27 88
393 [32] Strong Rock Christian 5 - A 1-0 1.60 -6.64 390
394 [51] Stone Mountain 5 - AAA 0-2 1.16 45.29 135
395 [33] Whitefield Academy 6 - A 0-1 0.51 6.47 361
396 [52] Haralson County 6 - AAA 0-1 -0.05 8.38 356
397 [55] Armuchee 7 - AA 1-1 -1.58 -2.75 383
398 [44] Wheeler County 3 - A 1-1 -1.67 -2.85 384
399 [56] Oglethorpe County 8 - AA 0-0 -2.23 0.00 0
400 [45] Towns County 8 - A 1-0 -2.75 0.00 0
401 [46] Montgomery County 3 - A 0-1 -5.72 23.61 288
402 [34] Lakeview Academy 8 - A 0-1 -5.95 5.39 367
403 [52] Hephzibah 3 - AAAA 0-2 -6.27 8.07 357
404 [53] Groves 3 - AAA 0-1 -6.29 8.56 354
405 [54] Islands 3 - AAA 0-2 -6.48 26.39 270
406 [55] Windsor Forest 3 - AAA 0-1 -6.55 11.85 342
407 [35] North Cobb Christian 6 - A 0-1 -6.64 1.60 375
408 [57] Clarkston 5 - AAAAA† 0-2 -7.62 28.99 244
409 [47] Central (Talbotton) 4 - A 0-1 -10.12 -1.67 381
410 [56] Coahulla Creek 6 - AAA 0-2 -10.16 22.01 296
411 [48] Calhoun County 1 - A 0-1 -11.23 2.93 373
412 [49] Baconton Charter 1 - A 1-1 -11.40 -9.78 393
413 [57] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 - AAA 0-2 -14.72 9.65 346
414 [36] Providence Christian 8 - A 1-0 -15.17 -24.52 400
415 [57] Gordon Central 7 - AA 0-2 -18.31 14.62 325
416 [2] Glascock County 7 - A† 0-2 -22.29 8.61 353
417 [50] Fulton Leadership Academy 5 - A 0-2 -24.52 -1.63 379
418 [58] Cross Keys 5 - AAAAA† 0-0 -28.87 0.00 0
419 [51] Stewart County 1 - A 0-1 -31.14 23.45 291
420 [3] Webster County 1 - A† 0-0 -39.58 0.00 0
421 [4] Pataula Charter 1 - A† 0-1 -44.81 -11.40 395
†-Plays non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 - AAAAAAA 92.95 75.77
2 8 - AAAAAAA 87.51 67.43
3 1 - AAAAAA 86.94 72.36
4 3 - AAAAAAA 84.39 64.62
5 6 - AAAAAAA 84.31 60.77
6 4 - AAAAAAA 81.59 62.09
7 7 - AAAAAAA 77.87 53.21
8 5 - AAAAAA 73.36 57.08
9 5 - AAAA 71.10 45.43
10 2 - AAAAAAA 70.87 53.53
11 8 - AAAAAA 68.72 45.63
12 6 - AAAAAA 68.08 50.93
13 7 - AAAAA 67.74 50.40
14 5 - AAAAAAA 67.38 50.84
15 8 - AAAA 67.21 49.11
16 7 - AAAA 66.82 39.64
17 2 - AAAAAA 65.59 47.28
18 4 - AAAAA 65.21 45.88
19 4 - AAAAAA 64.01 48.70
20 1 - AAAAA 63.76 48.29
21 5 - AAA 63.39 39.36
22 2 - AAAAA 62.88 43.44
23 8 - AAAAA 62.14 38.52
24 1 - AA 61.34 39.33
25 2 - AAAA 60.89 44.56
26 3 - AAAAA 60.07 43.47
27 7 - AAAAAA 58.57 40.62
28 4 - AAAA 57.71 37.73
29 3 - AAAA 57.64 32.96
30 1 - AAA 56.88 41.36
31 1 - AAAA 56.71 40.30
32 6 - AAAAA 55.83 33.18
33 7 - AAA 54.25 32.28
34 2 - AA 53.55 28.74
35 5 - AAAAA 51.94 39.50
36 2 - AAA 51.84 34.15
37 5 - AA 51.73 31.51
38 4 - AAA 50.89 32.14
39 3 - AAAAAA 49.99 34.61
40 5 - A 49.58 23.17
41 3 - AA 47.59 30.00
42 6 - AAAA 47.58 29.00
43 8 - AAA 45.76 27.05
44 2 - A 45.38 25.60
45 8 - AA 44.36 16.47
46 4 - AA 43.34 18.29
47 6 - A 42.55 24.65
  6 - Div A - A 44.78 28.01
  6 - Div B - A 40.28 21.34
48 6 - AAA 41.59 18.39
  6 - South - AAA 52.68 28.23
  6 - North - AAA 30.17 6.59
49 4 - A 40.48 20.29
  4 - Div B - A 40.56 21.38
  4 - Div A - A 40.40 18.85
50 7 - A 40.23 25.30
  7 - Div B - A 40.88 27.70
  7 - Div A - A 39.46 23.07
51 8 - A 39.99 15.72
52 3 - A 38.57 17.94
  3 - Div A - A 41.37 22.27
  3 - Div B - A 34.72 13.53
53 6 - AA 37.41 22.35
54 7 - AA 36.69 18.09
55 3 - AAA 28.46 7.93
56 1 - A 22.86 7.01

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
08/19 Jonesboro Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 7 - 9 9.55 72.2% 0.360
08/26 Westside (Macon) Southwest 3 - 8 7.89 68.8% 0.376
08/26 Woodward Academy Grady 10 - 14 7.45 67.8% 0.387
08/26 Cedar Grove Southwest DeKalb 20 - 21 5.30 62.9% 0.431
08/26 Charlton County Brantley County 29 - 32 4.57 61.2% 0.436
08/26 Newton Eastside 41 - 41 9.50 72.1% 0.448
08/26 Mount Paran Christian Fellowship Christian 7 - 14 3.01 57.5% 0.453
08/18 Towers Forest Park 2 - 6 3.17 57.9% 0.456
08/26 Harris County Hardaway 17 - 20 3.08 57.6% 0.459
08/26 Drew Riverdale 27 - 33 2.17 55.4% 0.468
08/19 Collins Hill Shiloh 14 - 27 1.30 53.2% 0.477
08/19 Jenkins New Hampstead 21 - 20 22.28 90.3% 0.478
08/19 Johnson (Gainesville) Social Circle 14 - 19 1.61 54.0% 0.478
08/19 Stephenson Cedar Grove 23 - 34 1.29 53.2% 0.478
08/26 Morgan County Greene County 12 - 13 1.80 54.5% 0.479

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
93.20 08/20 Mill Creek Colquitt County 34 - 27 0.94 52.3%
91.52 09/09 Roswell Colquitt County - 0.01 50.0%
88.44 09/02 McEachern Grayson - 2.85 57.1%
86.81 09/09 Mill Creek Archer - 8.10 69.2%
86.16 09/23 Roswell Archer - 4.71 61.6%
85.17 08/20 McEachern Archer 27 - 14 5.71 63.9%
84.73 09/23 Colquitt County Valdosta - 9.37 71.8%
84.58 08/19 Roswell Buford 24 - 7 8.19 69.4%
84.31 10/14 Grayson Archer - 7.79 68.6%
79.51 09/16 Archer Norcross - 3.98 59.8%
78.89 08/26 Archer Peachtree Ridge 20 - 19 6.43 65.5%
77.47 10/14 Mill Creek Peachtree Ridge - 19.46 87.5%
76.00 09/23 McEachern Camden County - 14.15 80.5%
75.98 09/02 Mill Creek Dacula - 20.79 88.9%
75.81 10/21 Valdosta Lee County - 5.98 64.5%

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

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