Maxwell Week 1 summary: Packers pound Indians to push pass Rams

By Loren Maxwell

Aug 20, 2018

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association's 422 teams throughout the 2018 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:

- Colquitt County punished McEachern 41-7 in one of the season’s highest rated matchups to raise Rush Propst’s record against the Indians to 3-0 and hand them their worst defeat of the last decade aside from the 2014 semifinal game where the Packers also dismantled McEachern, that time 57-20. The victory was impressive enough to elevate Colquitt County past idle Grayson into the number one spot in the state.

- Rome played a relatively close game with Marietta, downing the Blue Devils in a 51-41 shootout. Rome dropped into second place in Class AAAAA behind Buford, who’s rating improved following a 40-14 winner over perennial power Tucker.

- Clinch County limped to a lackluster 24-17 victory over heavy underdog Hebron Christian Academy, making room for Irwin County to move past them from third to first in the Class A Public ratings. Previously second ranked Macon County was shocked in a 41-0 loss to 23-point underdog Pelham.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 100.00%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 0 of 0 total games including 0 tie(s) (--.--%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within --.-- points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Home Advantage: 0.77

By Class

AAAAAAA				AAAAAA
Rank	Team	Rec	Rating	Rank	Team	Rec	Rating
1	Colquitt County	1-0	95.60	1	Lee County	1-0	78.19
2	Grayson	0-0	93.52	2	Coffee	1-0	75.03
3	North Gwinnett	1-0	88.74	3	Northside (Warner Robins)	1-0	74.59
4	Lowndes	1-0	86.67	4	Tucker	0-1	74.43
5	Walton	1-0	84.64	5	Harrison	1-0	72.17
6	McEachern	0-1	81.64	6	Valdosta	1-0	72.15
7	Norcross	1-0	79.37	7	Glynn Academy	0-1	71.75
8	Mill Creek	0-1	78.10	8	Mays	0-1	69.82
9	Parkview	1-0	77.52	9	Allatoona	0-1	66.29
10	Milton	1-0	76.58	10	Dalton	1-0	61.83
11	Archer	0-1	76.27	11	Alpharetta	0-0	60.52
12	North Cobb	1-0	73.76	12	Brunswick	0-1	60.06
13	Hillgrove	1-0	73.59	13	Alexander	0-0	60.01
14	Brookwood	0-1	73.51	14	Dacula	1-0	59.77
15	Tift County	0-1	71.66	15	Stephenson	1-0	59.38

AAAAA				AAAA
Rank	Team	Rec	Rating	Rank	Team	Rec	Rating
1	Buford	1-0	89.38	1	Cartersville	1-0	87.30
2	Rome	1-0	87.55	2	Blessed Trinity	1-0	75.92
3	Stockbridge	0-0	76.33	3	Marist	0-0	72.21
4	Warner Robins	1-0	76.32	4	Mary Persons	1-0	66.07
5	Ware County	1-0	64.76	5	Burke County	0-1	64.87
6	Jones County	1-0	64.16	6	Thomson	0-1	61.00
7	Carrollton	0-0	63.76	7	Sandy Creek	0-0	59.67
8	Kell	1-0	63.44	8	St. Pius X	0-1	58.35
9	Dutchtown	1-0	63.25	9	Woodward Academy	0-1	57.33
10	Starr's Mill	0-0	61.82	10	Troup	0-0	56.00
11	Bainbridge	1-0	59.07	11	Ridgeland	0-1	54.47
12	Griffin	1-0	58.36	12	Oconee County	1-0	53.54
13	Wayne County	0-0	56.59	13	Flowery Branch	1-0	53.50
14	Eagle's Landing	1-0	54.50	14	Eastside	1-0	53.14
15	Arabia Mountain	1-0	52.95	15	Cairo	0-1	52.14

AAA				AA
Rank	Team	Rec	Rating	Rank	Team	Rec	Rating
1	Benedictine	1-0	77.56	1	Hapeville Charter	0-0	72.39
2	Calhoun	1-0	73.03	2	Brooks County	1-0	62.51
3	Greater Atlanta Christian	1-0	71.46	3	Fitzgerald	1-0	60.06
4	Peach County	0-0	68.97	4	Thomasville	1-0	58.68
5	Cedar Grove	1-0	68.84	5	Callaway	0-0	57.32
6	Westminster (Atlanta)	1-0	63.93	6	Screven County	1-0	54.21
7	Lovett	0-1	58.77	7	Rabun County	0-1	53.68
8	Jefferson	0-1	55.37	8	Dodge County	1-0	52.71
9	Crisp County	1-0	55.02	9	Heard County	1-0	51.90
10	Liberty County	0-0	51.32	10	Rockmart	1-0	51.48
11	Westside (Macon)	1-0	48.64	11	Bremen	1-0	49.76
12	Dawson County	1-0	44.32	12	Vidalia	0-0	48.52
13	Cook	1-0	44.00	13	Dublin	1-0	47.40
14	Pace Academy	0-1	43.58	14	Swainsboro	1-0	46.26
15	Pierce County	1-0	42.54	15	Washington County	1-0	46.15

A-Public				A-Private
Rank	Team	Rec	Rating	Rank	Team	Rec	Rating
1	Irwin County	1-0	51.59	1	Eagle's Landing Christian	1-0	74.86
2	Clinch County	1-0	50.98	2	Mount Paran Christian	0-0	50.90
3	Manchester	1-0	47.17	3	Prince Avenue Christian	1-0	50.72
4	Mount Zion (Carroll)	1-0	43.80	4	Athens Academy	1-0	49.48
5	Commerce	1-0	43.55	5	Darlington	1-0	46.79
6	Emanuel County Institute	0-1	41.01	6	Calvary Day	0-0	45.85
7	Charlton County	1-0	38.19	7	Wesleyan	0-1	44.40
8	Pelham	1-0	38.04	8	Stratford Academy	0-0	42.77
9	Macon County	0-1	36.99	9	Aquinas	1-0	40.50
10	Marion County	1-0	36.64	10	Tattnall Square	1-0	39.00
11	Dooly County	0-0	35.82	11	Fellowship Christian	1-0	37.57
12	Turner County	1-0	34.64	12	Savannah Christian	0-1	34.77
13	Trion	1-0	33.72	13	Holy Innocents	1-0	32.19
14	Lincoln County	0-1	33.18	14	First Presbyterian	0-0	32.05
15	Washington-Wilkes	0-0	32.67	15	Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)	1-0	29.41

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

Rank	Team	Region	Rec	Rating	SchStr	Rank
1 [1]	Colquitt County	1 - AAAAAAA	1-0	95.60	81.64	8
2 [2]	Grayson	8 - AAAAAAA	0-0	93.52
3 [1]	Buford	8 - AAAAA	1-0	89.38	74.43	21
4 [3]	North Gwinnett	6 - AAAAAAA	1-0	88.74	73.51	24
5 [2]	Rome	7 - AAAAA	1-0	87.55	65.25	39
6 [1]	Cartersville	5 - AAAA	1-0	87.30	65.53	38
7 [4]	Lowndes	1 - AAAAAAA	1-0	86.67	41.87	143
8 [5]	Walton	4 - AAAAAAA	1-0	84.64	78.10	12
9 [6]	McEachern	3 - AAAAAAA	0-1	81.64	95.60	1
10 [7]	Norcross	7 - AAAAAAA	1-0	79.37	70.58	31
11 [1]	Lee County	1 - AAAAAA	1-0	78.19	22.46	248
12 [8]	Mill Creek	6 - AAAAAAA	0-1	78.10	84.64	7
13 [1]	Benedictine	3 - AAA	1-0	77.56	64.87	40
14 [9]	Parkview	7 - AAAAAAA	1-0	77.52	62.06	48
15 [10]	Milton	5 - AAAAAAA	1-0	76.58	76.27	16
16 [3]	Stockbridge	4 - AAAAA	0-0	76.33
17 [4]	Warner Robins	1 - AAAAA	1-0	76.32	70.90	30
18 [11]	Archer	8 - AAAAAAA	0-1	76.27	76.58	15
19 [2]	Blessed Trinity	7 - AAAA	1-0	75.92	59.10	58
20 [2]	Coffee	1 - AAAAAA	1-0	75.03	59.30	56
21 [1]	Eagle's Landing Christian	5 - A	1-0	74.86	27.54	229
22 [3]	Northside (Warner Robins)	1 - AAAAAA	1-0	74.59	54.30	73
23 [4]	Tucker	4 - AAAAAA	0-1	74.43	89.38	2
24 [12]	North Cobb	3 - AAAAAAA	1-0	73.76	61.58	49
25 [13]	Hillgrove	3 - AAAAAAA	1-0	73.59	56.96	64
26 [14]	Brookwood	7 - AAAAAAA	0-1	73.51	88.74	3
27 [2]	Calhoun	6 - AAA	1-0	73.03	54.47	72
28 [1]	Hapeville Charter	6 - AA	0-0	72.39
29 [3]	Marist	7 - AAAA	0-0	72.21
30 [5]	Harrison	6 - AAAAAA	1-0	72.17	59.93	52
31 [6]	Valdosta	1 - AAAAAA	1-0	72.15	40.20	157
32 [7]	Glynn Academy	2 - AAAAAA	0-1	71.75
33 [15]	Tift County	1 - AAAAAAA	0-1	71.66	77.08	14
34 [16]	Roswell	4 - AAAAAAA	0-0	71.49
35 [3]	Greater Atlanta Christian	7 - AAA	1-0	71.46	58.01	62
36 [17]	North Paulding	3 - AAAAAAA	1-0	70.18	46.30	118
37 [18]	South Forsyth	5 - AAAAAAA	1-0	70.07	43.27	140
38 [8]	Mays	5 - AAAAAA	0-1	69.82	78.61	9
39 [4]	Peach County	4 - AAA	0-0	68.97
40 [5]	Cedar Grove	5 - AAA	1-0	68.84
41 [19]	Newton	8 - AAAAAAA	1-0	67.75	27.97	227
42 [20]	Westlake	2 - AAAAAAA	1-0	66.43	36.42	176
43 [9]	Allatoona	6 - AAAAAA	0-1	66.29	88.06	4
44 [21]	Etowah	4 - AAAAAAA	1-0	66.23	35.76	180
45 [22]	Camden County	1 - AAAAAAA	1-0	66.14	60.27	51
46 [4]	Mary Persons	2 - AAAA	1-0	66.07	46.94	111
47 [23]	Marietta	3 - AAAAAAA	0-1	65.25	87.55	5
48 [5]	Burke County	3 - AAAA	0-1	64.87	77.56	13
49 [5]	Ware County	2 - AAAAA	1-0	64.76
50 [6]	Jones County	4 - AAAAA	1-0	64.16	41.01	149
51 [6]	Westminster (Atlanta)	5 - AAA	1-0	63.93	56.58	65
52 [7]	Carrollton	7 - AAAAA	0-0	63.76
53 [8]	Kell	7 - AAAAA	1-0	63.44	56.13	67
54 [24]	South Gwinnett	8 - AAAAAAA	1-0	63.28	55.50	69
55 [9]	Dutchtown	4 - AAAAA	1-0	63.25	54.79	70
56 [25]	Mountain View	6 - AAAAAAA	0-1	62.81	78.28	10
57 [2]	Brooks County	1 - AA	1-0	62.51	28.76	222
58 [26]	Woodstock	4 - AAAAAAA	0-1	62.33	74.52	20
59 [10]	Dalton	6 - AAAAAA	1-0	61.83	32.20	203
60 [10]	Starr's Mill	3 - AAAAA	0-0	61.82
61 [27]	West Forsyth	5 - AAAAAAA	0-1	61.02	66.90	36
62 [6]	Thomson	3 - AAAA	0-1	61.00
63 [28]	Collins Hill	6 - AAAAAAA	0-0	60.57
64 [11]	Alpharetta	7 - AAAAAA	0-0	60.52
65 [3]	Fitzgerald	1 - AA	1-0	60.06	35.29	185
66 [12]	Brunswick	2 - AAAAAA	0-1	60.06	75.79	17
67 [13]	Alexander	5 - AAAAAA	0-0	60.01
68 [14]	Dacula	8 - AAAAAA	1-0	59.77	21.72	254
69 [7]	Sandy Creek	5 - AAAA	0-0	59.67
70 [15]	Stephenson	4 - AAAAAA	1-0	59.38	31.59	207
71 [29]	Lassiter	4 - AAAAAAA	0-1	59.17	71.42	28
72 [16]	Effingham County	2 - AAAAAA	1-0	59.16	49.90	97
73 [11]	Bainbridge	1 - AAAAA	1-0	59.07	12.48	274
74 [7]	Lovett	5 - AAA	0-1	58.77	72.21	27
75 [4]	Thomasville	1 - AA	1-0	58.68	52.89	80
76 [17]	Lanier	8 - AAAAAA	1-0	58.66	46.70	113
77 [12]	Griffin	3 - AAAAA	1-0	58.36	47.96	108
78 [8]	St. Pius X	8 - AAAA	0-1	58.35	75.16	19
79 [18]	Northgate	5 - AAAAAA	0-0	58.15
80 [19]	Creekview	6 - AAAAAA	1-0	57.91	41.71	145
81 [20]	Douglas County	5 - AAAAAA	0-1	57.71	74.35	22
82 [9]	Woodward Academy	4 - AAAA	0-1	57.33	64.69	41
83 [5]	Callaway	5 - AA	0-0	57.32
84 [21]	Richmond Hill	2 - AAAAAA	1-0	56.93	41.48	147
85 [13]	Wayne County	2 - AAAAA	0-0	56.59
86 [30]	East Coweta	2 - AAAAAAA	0-1	56.13	63.44	42
87 [10]	Troup	5 - AAAA	0-0	56.00
88 [8]	Jefferson	8 - AAA	0-1	55.37	54.30	74
89 [9]	Crisp County	1 - AAA	1-0	55.02	45.92	121
90 [31]	Central Gwinnett	7 - AAAAAAA	0-1	54.74	62.52	46
91 [14]	Eagle's Landing	4 - AAAAA	1-0	54.50	34.83	187
92 [22]	Sequoyah	6 - AAAAAA	0-0	54.49
93 [11]	Ridgeland	6 - AAAA	0-1	54.47	73.03	25
94 [6]	Screven County	4 - AA	1-0	54.21
95 [23]	Hughes	5 - AAAAAA	0-1	54.04	62.50	47
96 [32]	Wheeler	2 - AAAAAAA	1-0	53.87	47.73	110
97 [7]	Rabun County	8 - AA	0-1	53.68	49.76	99
98 [24]	Centennial	7 - AAAAAA	0-1	53.54	73.84	23
99 [12]	Oconee County	8 - AAAA	1-0	53.54	54.61	71
100 [13]	Flowery Branch	7 - AAAA	1-0	53.50	31.26	209
101 [14]	Eastside	4 - AAAA	1-0	53.14	44.92	128
102 [15]	Arabia Mountain	5 - AAAAA	1-0	52.95	49.28	102
103 [8]	Dodge County	3 - AA	1-0	52.71	39.70	158
104 [33]	Meadowcreek	7 - AAAAAAA	1-0	52.58	43.65	137
105 [16]	East Paulding	7 - AAAAA	0-0	52.14
106 [15]	Cairo	1 - AAAA	0-1	52.14	57.92	63
107 [9]	Heard County	5 - AA	1-0	51.90	34.44	190
108 [17]	Southwest DeKalb	5 - AAAAA	1-0	51.65	46.66	115
109 [1]	Irwin County	2 - A	1-0	51.59	27.58	228
110 [10]	Rockmart	7 - AA	1-0	51.48	47.96	109
111 [18]	Locust Grove	4 - AAAAA	1-0	51.47	35.53	182
112 [10]	Liberty County	2 - AAA	0-0	51.32
113 [16]	West Laurens	2 - AAAA	1-0	51.31	8.32	289
114 [19]	Clarke Central	8 - AAAAA	1-0	51.25	44.08	136
115 [34]	Pebblebrook	2 - AAAAAAA	1-0	51.18	35.46	183
116 [17]	Chapel Hill	5 - AAAA	1-0	51.17	48.86	104
117 [35]	Cherokee	4 - AAAAAAA	1-0	51.05	46.67	114
118 [2]	Clinch County	2 - A	1-0	50.98	24.30	239
119 [2]	Mount Paran Christian	6 - A	0-0	50.90
120 [3]	Prince Avenue Christian	8 - A	1-0	50.72	23.76	243
121 [20]	Carver (Atlanta)	6 - AAAAA	0-1	50.03	53.71	76
122 [11]	Bremen	5 - AA	1-0	49.76	53.68	77
123 [25]	New Manchester	5 - AAAAAA	1-0	49.68	44.33	133
124 [21]	Whitewater	3 - AAAAA	0-0	49.51
125 [4]	Athens Academy	8 - A	1-0	49.48	34.02	194
126 [26]	Evans	3 - AAAAAA	0-1	49.14	58.40	60
127 [22]	Banneker	6 - AAAAA	1-0	49.08	44.16	135
128 [27]	Houston County	1 - AAAAAA	0-1	48.72	46.47	116
129 [18]	Cedartown	5 - AAAA	0-1	48.72	52.24	84
130 [11]	Westside (Macon)	4 - AAA	1-0	48.64	33.23	198
131 [12]	Vidalia	2 - AA	0-0	48.52
132 [36]	Newnan	2 - AAAAAAA	0-1	48.11	50.41	93
133 [19]	Spalding	2 - AAAA	0-1	47.96	58.36	61
134 [28]	Gainesville	8 - AAAAAA	0-1	47.70	66.82	37
135 [37]	Kennesaw Mountain	3 - AAAAAAA	0-0	47.58
136 [38]	Campbell	2 - AAAAAAA	1-0	47.57	40.41	153
137 [39]	Peachtree Ridge	6 - AAAAAAA	0-1	47.46	59.42	54
138 [13]	Dublin	3 - AA	1-0	47.40	40.25	155
139 [23]	Thomas County Central	1 - AAAAA	1-0	47.24	23.12	246
140 [20]	Perry	2 - AAAA	1-0	47.23	49.48	100
141 [3]	Manchester	4 - A	1-0	47.17	31.88	205
142 [24]	Paulding County	7 - AAAAA	0-1	47.05	70.94	29
143 [40]	Lambert	5 - AAAAAAA	0-1	46.97	53.11	79
144 [5]	Darlington	6 - A	1-0	46.79	38.71	163
145 [21]	Americus-Sumter	1 - AAAA	0-1	46.67	55.78	68
146 [25]	Veterans	1 - AAAAA	1-0	46.33	38.64	164
147 [14]	Swainsboro	2 - AA	1-0	46.26	45.91	122
148 [41]	Shiloh	8 - AAAAAAA	1-0	46.16	28.56	224
149 [15]	Washington County	3 - AA	1-0	46.15	37.21	171
150 [22]	Carver (Columbus)	1 - AAAA	1-0	46.05	37.66	169
151 [42]	North Forsyth	5 - AAAAAAA	0-1	45.91	50.29	94
152 [26]	Woodland (Stockbridge)	4 - AAAAA	0-1	45.90	50.89	90
153 [6]	Calvary Day	3 - A	0-0	45.85
154 [27]	Hiram	7 - AAAAA	0-0	45.62
155 [16]	Elbert County	8 - AA	1-0	45.53	28.52	225
156 [23]	Stephens County	8 - AAAA	1-0	45.31	24.03	240
157 [17]	Jefferson County	4 - AA	0-1	45.16	45.50	125
158 [28]	Loganville	8 - AAAAA	1-0	45.05	35.69	181
159 [29]	Lovejoy	4 - AAAAAA	0-1	44.92	49.84	98
160 [7]	Wesleyan	5 - A	0-1	44.40	53.33	78
161 [12]	Dawson County	7 - AAA	1-0	44.32	33.78	196
162 [29]	Ola	4 - AAAAA	0-1	44.17	52.38	82
163 [13]	Cook	1 - AAA	1-0	44.00	33.98	195
164 [4]	Mount Zion (Carroll)	6 - A	1-0	43.80	25.22	234
165 [18]	Toombs County	2 - AA	1-0	43.70	-8.12	308
166 [30]	Riverwood	6 - AAAAA	1-0	43.59	35.23	186
167 [14]	Pace Academy	5 - AAA	0-1	43.58	48.93	103
168 [5]	Commerce	8 - A	1-0	43.55	37.32	170
169 [24]	White County	7 - AAAA	0-0	43.47
170 [31]	New Hampstead	2 - AAAAA	1-0	43.32	38.77	162
171 [30]	Winder-Barrow	8 - AAAAAA	0-1	43.32	50.49	92
172 [8]	Stratford Academy	7 - A	0-0	42.77
173 [31]	Drew	4 - AAAAAA	0-1	42.63	87.43	6
174 [15]	Pierce County	2 - AAA	1-0	42.54	25.02	235
175 [32]	Sprayberry	6 - AAAAAA	0-1	42.51	69.31	32
176 [33]	Cambridge	7 - AAAAAA	0-1	42.47	58.67	59
177 [25]	Northside (Columbus)	1 - AAAA	0-0	42.28
178 [26]	Heritage (Ringgold)	6 - AAAA	1-0	41.82	10.56	277
179 [27]	Northwest Whitfield	6 - AAAA	1-0	41.68	-16.11	312
180 [32]	Villa Rica	7 - AAAAA	0-1	41.16	48.33	105
181 [6]	Emanuel County Institute	3 - A	0-1	41.01	48.16	106
182 [33]	Maynard Jackson	6 - AAAAA	0-1	40.96	72.91	26
183 [16]	Pike County	4 - AAA	1-0	40.88	-9.84	310
184 [34]	Johns Creek	7 - AAAAAA	1-0	40.72
185 [35]	Grovetown	3 - AAAAAA	0-1	40.72	56.18	66
186 [9]	Aquinas	7 - A	1-0	40.50	22.01	251
187 [17]	Monroe Area	8 - AAA	1-0	40.38	18.55	261
188 [36]	Tri-Cities	5 - AAAAAA	0-0	40.33
189 [28]	Howard	2 - AAAA	0-1	40.25	63.40	43
190 [29]	Salem	4 - AAAA	1-0	40.05	38.80	160
191 [30]	Pickens	6 - AAAA	1-0	39.69	-1.13	301
192 [34]	South Effingham	2 - AAAAA	1-0	39.57	8.95	285
193 [37]	Heritage (Conyers)	3 - AAAAAA	0-1	39.56	40.81	151
194 [18]	North Hall	7 - AAA	1-0	39.46	24.49	236
195 [35]	Cedar Shoals	8 - AAAAA	1-0	39.27	28.84	221
196 [10]	Tattnall Square	7 - A	1-0	39.00	21.95	252
197 [38]	Bradwell Institute	2 - AAAAAA	0-1	38.94	51.95	86
198 [19]	Jenkins	3 - AAA	0-1	38.77	43.32	139
199 [36]	Harris County	1 - AAAAA	0-1	38.42	46.80	112
200 [7]	Charlton County	2 - A	1-0	38.19
201 [31]	West Hall	7 - AAAA	0-1	38.08	44.31	134
202 [8]	Pelham	1 - A	1-0	38.04	36.23	177
203 [19]	Pepperell	7 - AA	0-1	37.96	46.04	120
204 [32]	Upson-Lee	2 - AAAA	0-1	37.88	45.57	124
205 [39]	Pope	7 - AAAAAA	0-0	37.73
206 [33]	Columbus	1 - AAAA	1-0	37.71	29.33	219
207 [11]	Fellowship Christian	6 - A	1-0	37.57	29.47	217
208 [40]	Lakeside (Evans)	3 - AAAAAA	1-0	37.44
209 [41]	Mundy's Mill	4 - AAAAAA	1-0	37.28	31.08	210
210 [42]	Creekside	5 - AAAAAA	0-1	37.18	67.19	34
211 [9]	Macon County	4 - A	0-1	36.99	38.79	161
212 [34]	Hardaway	1 - AAAA	0-0	36.72
213 [10]	Marion County	4 - A	1-0	36.64	21.27	256
214 [20]	Douglass	6 - AA	1-0	36.55	23.99	241
215 [43]	River Ridge	6 - AAAAAA	0-1	36.52	66.99	35
216 [35]	Baldwin	3 - AAAA	0-1	36.45	45.39	127
217 [20]	Morgan County	8 - AAA	0-1	36.44	45.80	123
218 [21]	Jackson	4 - AAA	0-1	36.29	52.23	85
219 [44]	South Cobb	6 - AAAAAA	0-1	36.22	51.93	87
220 [22]	Monroe	1 - AAA	1-0	36.13	16.75	267
221 [37]	Riverdale	3 - AAAAA	1-0	35.92	22.36	249
222 [23]	Adairsville	6 - AAA	1-0	35.82	28.43	226
223 [11]	Dooly County	4 - A	0-0	35.82
224 [24]	Southeast Bulloch	3 - AAA	0-0	35.26
225 [38]	Union Grove	4 - AAAAA	0-0	35.18
226 [39]	Woodland (Cartersville)	7 - AAAAA	1-0	34.95	25.51	233
227 [40]	Statesboro	2 - AAAAA	0-0	34.85
228 [36]	Hampton	4 - AAAA	1-0	34.83	32.19	204
229 [12]	Savannah Christian	3 - A	0-1	34.77	50.24	95
230 [37]	Westover	1 - AAAA	0-1	34.74	44.76	129
231 [12]	Turner County	2 - A	1-0	34.64	22.28	250
232 [21]	Bacon County	2 - AA	0-1	34.54	59.30	57
233 [45]	Chattahoochee	7 - AAAAAA	0-1	34.47	42.83	141
234 [38]	LaGrange	5 - AAAA	0-1	34.44	51.90	88
235 [46]	South Paulding	5 - AAAAAA	0-0	34.24
236 [47]	M.L. King	4 - AAAAAA	0-0	34.09
237 [43]	Rockdale County	8 - AAAAAAA	0-1	34.07	53.74	75
238 [22]	Bleckley County	3 - AA	1-0	34.04	9.70	283
239 [41]	Jonesboro	3 - AAAAA	0-1	34.03	32.46	201
240 [23]	Southwest	3 - AA	0-1	33.99	49.40	101
241 [39]	Central (Carrollton)	5 - AAAA	1-0	33.81	23.68	245
242 [24]	Jeff Davis	2 - AA	1-0	33.78	13.74	271
243 [13]	Trion	6 - A	1-0	33.72	26.40	231
244 [44]	Forsyth Central	5 - AAAAAAA	1-0	33.69	7.67	290
245 [48]	Northview	7 - AAAAAA	0-0	33.56
246 [14]	Lincoln County	7 - A	0-1	33.18
247 [49]	Habersham Central	8 - AAAAAA	0-1	33.02	43.56	138
248 [42]	Cass	7 - AAAAA	0-0	32.98
249 [25]	Ringgold	6 - AAA	0-1	32.96	62.58	45
250 [15]	Washington-Wilkes	7 - A	0-0	32.67
251 [26]	Appling County	2 - AAA	0-0	32.51
252 [50]	Mount Zion (Jonesboro)	4 - AAAAAA	1-0	32.46	34.03	193
253 [51]	Greenbrier	3 - AAAAAA	0-0	32.39
254 [52]	North Atlanta	7 - AAAAAA	1-0	32.37	28.69	223
255 [13]	Holy Innocents	5 - A	1-0	32.19	29.59	214
256 [14]	First Presbyterian	7 - A	0-0	32.05
257 [43]	McIntosh	3 - AAAAA	0-1	31.84	38.04	167
258 [25]	B.E.S.T. Academy	6 - AA	1-0	31.83	19.85	259
259 [27]	Sonoraville	6 - AAA	0-0	31.80
260 [44]	Columbia	5 - AAAAA	0-1	31.59	59.38	55
261 [45]	Fayette County	3 - AAAAA	0-1	31.43	34.08	192
262 [46]	Miller Grove	5 - AAAAA	1-0	31.23	23.72	244
263 [16]	Taylor County	4 - A	0-1	31.12	46.41	117
264 [17]	Telfair County	2 - A	0-0	30.58
265 [28]	East Hall	7 - AAA	0-1	30.51	52.74	81
266 [40]	North Oconee	8 - AAAA	1-0	30.25	6.74	292
267 [29]	North Murray	6 - AAA	0-0	30.23
268 [30]	Jackson County	8 - AAA	1-0	29.71	16.55	268
269 [18]	Mitchell County	1 - A	0-1	29.52	63.27	44
270 [47]	Lithonia	5 - AAAAA	1-0	29.42	13.54	273
271 [15]	Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)	5 - A	1-0	29.41	23.88	242
272 [26]	Spencer	5 - AA	0-1	29.33	37.71	168
273 [45]	Lakeside (Atlanta)	7 - AAAAAAA	1-0	29.31	24.34	238
274 [31]	Hart County	8 - AAA	0-1	29.27	46.29	119
275 [27]	Chattooga	7 - AA	0-1	29.19	36.58	174
276 [16]	Savannah Country Day	3 - A	0-0	29.13
277 [28]	Union County	8 - AA	0-0	28.90
278 [17]	Mount Pisgah Christian	6 - A	0-1	28.84	31.43	208
279 [41]	Richmond Academy	3 - AAAA	1-0	28.78	9.73	282
280 [48]	North Springs	6 - AAAAA	0-1	28.71	36.81	173
281 [49]	Grady	6 - AAAAA	0-1	28.69	32.37	202
282 [29]	Berrien	1 - AA	0-1	28.33	52.34	83
283 [53]	Morrow	4 - AAAAAA	0-1	28.29	75.62	18
284 [32]	Central (Macon)	4 - AAA	0-0	28.17
285 [42]	Madison County	8 - AAAA	0-1	28.09	38.51	165
286 [18]	Athens Christian	8 - A	1-0	28.05	17.95	265
287 [54]	Alcovy	3 - AAAAAA	0-1	27.97	67.75	33
288 [46]	Duluth	6 - AAAAAAA	0-1	27.80	45.40	126
289 [33]	Savannah	3 - AAA	0-1	26.81
290 [19]	George Walton Academy	8 - A	0-0	26.50
291 [43]	Shaw	1 - AAAA	1-0	26.34	10.51	278
292 [50]	Walnut Grove	8 - AAAAA	0-0	26.24
293 [30]	Lamar County	5 - AA	0-1	25.97	44.56	130
294 [31]	Coosa	7 - AA	0-1	25.64	32.97	200
295 [44]	Chestatee	7 - AAAA	0-1	25.25	40.22	156
296 [51]	Decatur	6 - AAAAA	0-1	25.09	30.07	213
297 [32]	Metter	2 - AA	0-0	24.99
298 [45]	Southeast Whitfield	6 - AAAA	0-1	24.75	34.20	191
299 [33]	Northeast	3 - AA	0-1	24.64	30.17	212
300 [46]	Luella	4 - AAAA	0-0	24.63
301 [20]	Mount Vernon Presbyterian	5 - A	0-1	24.52	51.48	89
302 [34]	South Atlanta	6 - AA	0-1	24.44	34.56	188
303 [55]	Dunwoody	7 - AAAAAA	0-0	24.40
304 [19]	McIntosh County Academy	3 - A	0-1	24.26	41.78	144
305 [35]	Washington	6 - AA	0-1	23.99	36.55	175
306 [36]	Early County	1 - AA	0-1	23.87	48.00	107
307 [20]	Claxton	3 - A	1-0	23.67	22.47	247
308 [21]	Hebron Christian Academy	8 - A	0-1	23.54	50.22	96
309 [34]	Brantley County	2 - AAA	0-0	23.40
310 [35]	Franklin County	8 - AAA	0-1	23.28	44.55	131
311 [36]	Tattnall County	2 - AAA	0-1	23.23	24.43	237
312 [37]	Worth County	1 - AAA	0-1	23.04	35.39	184
313 [38]	Redan	5 - AAA	0-1	22.96	30.47	211
314 [37]	Laney	4 - AA	0-1	22.77	41.26	148
315 [22]	Whitefield Academy	6 - A	1-0	22.68	-5.66	306
316 [47]	Discovery	6 - AAAAAAA	0-1	22.48	60.53	50
317 [47]	Dougherty	1 - AAAA	0-1	22.46	78.19	11
318 [48]	North Clayton	4 - AAAA	0-1	22.36	35.92	178
319 [39]	Windsor Forest	3 - AAA	1-0	22.04	16.86	266
320 [23]	Brookstone	4 - A	0-0	21.29
321 [24]	Our Lady of Mercy	5 - A	0-1	21.20	38.24	166
322 [38]	Temple	5 - AA	0-0	21.13
323 [39]	McNair	6 - AA	1-0	20.86	18.01	263
324 [40]	Therrell	6 - AA	1-0	20.78	6.05	294
325 [21]	Atkinson County	2 - A	1-0	20.53	11.43	275
326 [22]	Schley County	4 - A	0-1	20.51	35.89	179
327 [41]	KIPP Atlanta Collegiate	6 - AA	0-1	19.85	31.83	206
328 [42]	Harlem	4 - AA	0-0	19.57
329 [23]	Bowdon	6 - A	0-1	19.52
330 [49]	Henry County	4 - AAAA	0-0	19.26
331 [40]	Lumpkin County	7 - AAA	1-0	19.18	-1.78	303
332 [52]	Lithia Springs	6 - AAAAA	0-0	18.79
333 [41]	Towers	5 - AAA	0-1	18.01	20.86	257
334 [56]	Apalachee	8 - AAAAAA	0-1	17.79	39.62	159
335 [43]	Jordan	5 - AA	0-1	17.51	36.89	172
336 [42]	Beach	3 - AAA	0-0	17.34
337 [24]	Johnson County	3 - A	0-0	17.31
338 [25]	Mount de Sales	7 - A	1-0	17.23	6.44	293
339 [26]	Walker	6 - A	0-1	17.19	27.29	230
340 [50]	Cross Creek	3 - AAAA	1-0	17.11	0.29	300
341 [25]	Miller County	1 - A	0-0	16.72
342 [44]	Bryan County	2 - AA	0-0	16.32
343 [26]	Jenkins County	3 - A	0-1	16.10	21.28	255
344 [45]	Banks County	8 - AA	0-1	15.79	28.95	220
345 [27]	Gordon Lee	6 - A	1-0	15.28	9.15	284
346 [27]	Strong Rock Christian	5 - A	0-0	14.89
347 [28]	Wilkinson County	7 - A	0-0	14.80
348 [29]	Chattahoochee County	1 - A	1-0	14.31	1.56	298
349 [30]	Greene County	7 - A	0-0	13.58
350 [57]	Forest Park	4 - AAAAAA	0-1	13.54	29.42	218
351 [31]	Seminole County	1 - A	0-1	13.24	59.82	53
352 [43]	Rutland	4 - AAA	0-0	13.12
353 [46]	Glenn Hills	4 - AA	0-1	12.98	33.02	199
354 [47]	Butler	4 - AA	0-0	12.68
355 [32]	Wilcox County	2 - A	0-0	11.75
356 [33]	Towns County	8 - A	1-0	11.35
357 [44]	Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe	6 - AAA	0-1	11.31	42.57	142
358 [45]	Fannin County	7 - AAA	1-0	10.99	-10.00	311
359 [34]	Montgomery County	3 - A	0-1	10.67	19.77	260
360 [46]	Kendrick	4 - AAA	0-1	10.51	26.34	232
361 [48]	Hephzibah	4 - AA	0-1	10.49	29.54	215
362 [51]	LaFayette	6 - AAAA	1-0	10.37	6.77	291
363 [49]	Dade County	7 - AA	0-1	9.91	16.04	270
364 [47]	Long County	2 - AAA	0-1	9.71	40.33	154
365 [35]	Hancock Central	7 - A	0-0	9.60
366 [48]	Haralson County	6 - AAA	1-0	9.56	-9.67	309
367 [28]	St. Francis	6 - A	0-0	9.46
368 [29]	Christian Heritage	6 - A	1-0	9.25	1.02	299
369 [36]	Hawkinsville	4 - A	0-1	8.94	33.28	197
370 [52]	Druid Hills	4 - AAAA	1-0	8.67	-18.60	315
371 [53]	Chamblee	5 - AAAAA	0-1	8.43	34.45	189
372 [37]	Warren County	7 - A	1-0	7.92	-1.57	302
373 [50]	Armuchee	7 - AA	1-0	7.72	3.57	297
374 [49]	Islands	3 - AAA	0-0	7.69
375 [51]	East Laurens	3 - AA	0-1	7.56	50.55	91
376 [52]	Model	7 - AA	0-1	7.52	11.13	276
377 [53]	Denmark	7 - AAAA	0-0	7.35
378 [53]	Monticello	8 - AA	0-1	7.20	17.98	264
379 [30]	North Cobb Christian	6 - A	0-0	6.50
380 [54]	Putnam County	8 - AA	0-1	5.98	29.49	216
381 [38]	Wheeler County	3 - A	0-0	5.94
382 [31]	Landmark Christian	5 - A	1-0	5.37	-26.30	316
383 [58]	Osborne	6 - AAAAAA	0-1	5.29	20.03	258
384 [50]	Murray County	6 - AAA	0-1	4.32	8.47	288
385 [32]	Lakeview Academy	8 - A	0-0	3.93
386 [39]	Treutlen	3 - A	1-0	3.04	-59.74	320
387 [40]	Lanier County	2 - A	0-0	2.55
388 [33]	Riverside Military Academy	8 - A	0-1	1.78	10.01	281
389 [55]	Social Circle	8 - AA	0-0	1.41
390 [34]	King's Ridge Christian	6 - A	0-0	1.30
391 [56]	Westside (Augusta)	4 - AA	0-0	1.11
392 [41]	Terrell County	1 - A	0-1	0.80	13.55	272
393 [35]	Pinecrest Academy	6 - A	0-0	-0.26
394 [51]	Stone Mountain	5 - AAA	0-1	-0.38	40.45	152
395 [57]	Josey	4 - AA	0-1	-0.46	16.35	269
396 [42]	Portal	3 - A	0-1	-0.81	8.68	286
397 [54]	Johnson (Gainesville)	8 - AAAAA	1-0	-1.97	-17.59	314
398 [43]	Randolph-Clay	1 - A	0-0	-2.47
399 [52]	East Jackson	8 - AAA	0-1	-2.53	18.42	262
400 [36]	Georgia Military College	7 - A	1-0	-3.66	-30.03	317
401 [44]	Greenville	4 - A	0-0	-3.70
402 [48]	Berkmar	7 - AAAAAAA	0-0	-4.87
403 [53]	Cherokee Bluff	7 - AAA	0-1	-6.42	21.92	253
404 [37]	Providence Christian	8 - A	1-0	-6.88	-54.30	319
405 [45]	Twiggs County	7 - A	0-1	-7.36	44.46	132
406 [46]	Crawford County	4 - A	0-0	-7.49
407 [47]	Calhoun County	1 - A	0-0	-7.75
408 [58]	Gordon Central	7 - AA	0-1	-8.91	10.32	279
409 [54]	Groves	3 - AAA	0-0	-9.01
410 [48]	Central (Talbotton)	4 - A	0-1	-9.08	41.64	146
411 [54]	Gilmer	6 - AAAA	0-1	-10.75	10.23	280
412 [55]	Johnson (Savannah)	3 - AAA	0-0	-13.13
413 [49]	Baconton Charter	1 - A	1-0	-15.95	-47.69	318
414 [56]	Coahulla Creek	6 - AAA	0-1	-16.86	40.92	150
415 [59]	Oglethorpe County	8 - AA	0-1	-18.35	-2.72	304
416 [55]	Clarkston	5 - AAAAA†	0-1	-18.60	8.67	287
417 [50]	Stewart County	1 - A	0-0	-26.63
418 [38]	Pacelli	4 - A	0-1	-27.06	4.61	295
419 [1]	Glascock County	7 - A†	0-1	-30.79	-4.41	305
420 [2]	Pataula Charter	1 - A†	0-1	-48.45	-16.71	313
421 [56]	Cross Keys	5 - AAAAA†	0-1	-53.54	-6.13	307
422 [3]	ACE Charter	7 - A†	0-1	-58.98	3.80	296

† - Plays a non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the Competitive Rating is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank	Region	Comp Rating	Avg Rating
1	1 - AAAAAAA	91.46	79.87
2	8 - AAAAAAA	84.30	63.89
3	3 - AAAAAAA	81.50	69.42
4	1 - AAAAAA	81.12	70.87
5	6 - AAAAAAA	80.62	56.34
6	4 - AAAAAAA	79.41	65.45
7	7 - AAAAAAA	78.15	57.28
8	7 - AAAAA	75.21	50.44
9	5 - AAAA	74.48	51.49
10	8 - AAAAA	73.77	40.82
11	5 - AAAAAAA	72.43	55.65
12	4 - AAAAA	71.38	54.10
13	7 - AAAA	70.41	45.39
14	6 - AAAAAA	69.89	50.29
15	2 - AAAAAA	69.13	57.82
16	1 - AAAAA	68.18	52.42
17	5 - AAAAAA	67.94	51.40
18	5 - AAA	65.20	41.24
19	2 - AAAAAAA	65.03	53.69
20	4 - AAAAAA	63.82	39.62
21	1 - AA	62.89	48.41
22	2 - AAAA	61.21	48.02
23	2 - AAAAA	60.57	47.40
24	3 - AAAA	60.52	40.95
25	3 - AAAAA	59.33	42.64
26	8 - AAAAAA	59.13	44.32
27	3 - AAA	58.98	21.19
28	5 - A	58.76	28.17
29	4 - AAA	57.85	34.58
30	7 - AAA	57.70	29.30
31	7 - AAAAAA	56.74	39.48
32	8 - AAAA	56.23	43.26
33	6 - AA	56.04	28.38
34	6 - AAA	55.78	22.86
35	5 - AA	54.58	35.55
36	1 - AAAA	53.57	38.51
37	4 - AAAA	52.86	31.90
38	3 - AA	51.77	36.26
39	6 - AAAAA	51.38	35.65
40	1 - AAA	50.75	39.69
41	2 - A	50.00	30.70
42	6 - AAAA	49.95	31.83
43	2 - AA	49.88	35.84
44	5 - AAAAA	49.10	34.52
45	3 - AAAAAA	49.05	37.83
46	6 - A	48.71	22.10
	6-Div A - A	43.63	24.27
	6-Div B - A	42.35	20.17
47	8 - AAA	48.54	31.36
48	8 - A	48.42	23.05
	8-Div A - A	48.44	32.09
	8-Div B - A	33.79	15.18
49	2 - AAA	46.25	30.26
50	8 - AA	45.22	15.89
51	4 - AA	44.78	17.52
52	7 - A	43.75	21.42
	7-Div A - A	39.76	24.42
	7-Div B - A	36.58	18.90
53	4 - A	43.71	18.06
	4-Div A - A	39.00	10.40
	4-Div B - A	37.46	22.57
54	3 - A	42.89	20.61
	3-Div A - A	41.43	27.13
	3-Div B - A	31.43	14.40
55	7 - AA	42.77	19.48
56	1 - A	30.44	6.00

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date	Team	Opponent	Score	Diff	Pct	Likelihood
08/17	Treutlen	ACE Charter	35 - 21	62.78	99.8%	0.403
08/18	Rabun County	Bremen	10 - 13	3.92	59.7%	0.446
08/17	Houston County	Perry	17 - 23	2.25	55.6%	0.467
08/17	Jonesboro	Mount Zion (Jonesboro)	13 - 14	1.57	53.9%	0.482
08/17	Jefferson	Oconee County	13 - 20	1.07	52.7%	0.484
08/17	Milton	Archer	21 - 19	0.31	50.8%	0.503
08/17	Swainsboro	Jefferson County	14 - 12	0.34	50.9%	0.504
08/17	Salem	Heritage (Conyers)	22 - 16	1.25	53.1%	0.517
08/17	Claxton	Tattnall County	14 - 6	1.20	53.0%	0.517
08/17	Chapel Hill	Newnan	10 - 7	2.30	55.7%	0.525
08/17	Clinch County	Hebron Christian Academy	24 - 17	26.68	93.5%	0.531
08/17	Hampton	Fayette County	15 - 7	2.65	56.6%	0.536
08/17	LaFayette	Model	28 - 25	3.60	58.9%	0.537
08/17	Lithonia	Forest Park	26 - 24	15.87	83.0%	0.539
08/17	Lakeside (Atlanta)	Decatur	21 - 20	4.97	62.2%	0.540

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating	Date	Team	Opponent	Score	Diff	Pct
94.51	09/21	Colquitt County	Grayson	-	1.32	53.3%
88.89	10/26	Colquitt County	Lowndes	-	9.68	72.5%
86.41	09/14	North Gwinnett	Walton	-	3.34	58.3%
84.21	08/18	Colquitt County	McEachern	41 - 7	13.96	80.2%
81.61	09/07	North Gwinnett	Norcross	-	10.13	73.4%
80.39	08/31	Lowndes	Parkview	-	8.40	69.8%
80.37	10/05	North Gwinnett	Mill Creek	-	11.40	75.8%
80.32	08/18	Walton	Mill Creek	45 - 27	6.54	65.8%
79.29	09/21	Buford	Archer	-	12.35	77.5%
78.83	09/14	Colquitt County	Warner Robins	-	18.52	86.4%
78.63	08/31	Norcross	Mill Creek	-	2.03	55.1%
78.41	09/28	Norcross	Parkview	-	1.09	52.7%
78.08	10/12	Grayson	Archer	-	18.00	85.8%
77.45	09/14	Norcross	Archer	-	3.86	59.5%
77.16	09/07	Mill Creek	Archer	-	1.07	52.7%

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Loren Maxwell

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