Maxwell Week 6 Summary: Packers assert over Rams, state

By Loren Maxwell

Updated Sept 25, 2018

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association's 422 teams throughout the 2018 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:

- Colquitt County down Grayson 26-14 in a game that could have been at least another touchdown worse than the final score to increase their rating by nearly a full field goal. The Packers are just below a rating of 100.00, of which only 58 teams have surpassed since 1948. Colquitt is nearly two touchdowns better the any other team in the state and has a 79.6% chance to finish the season undefeated and a 58.7% chance to win the title.

- Archer blasted Buford 48-24 in one of the season’s highest rated match ups to move into the number two spot in Class AAAAAAA. In comparison, the impressive victory also makes Archer’s 21-19 loss to Milton the least likeliest result of the season so far.

- Cedar Grove routed Lovett 45-0 to move into the top spot in Class AAA, edging out Benedictine. Still, there is only a two point difference between those two and Calhoun in the GHSA’s most highly contested classification.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 20.00%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 937 of 982 total games including 0 tie(s) (95.42%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.82 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Home Advantage: 1.76

By Class

AAAAAAA				AAAAAA
Rank	Team	Rec	Rating	Rank	Team	Rec	Rating
1	Colquitt County	6-0	99.75	1	Lee County	5-0	79.48
2	Archer	4-1	86.55	2	Coffee	6-0	73.78
3	Grayson	3-2	86.26	3	Harrison	6-0	66.53
4	Walton	5-0	84.47	4	Creekview	5-0	65.35
5	North Gwinnett	3-2	83.97	5	Mays	2-2	62.83
6	Parkview	4-0	82.46	6	Tucker	3-2	62.63
7	McEachern	4-1	82.00	7	Valdosta	2-3	62.60
8	Lowndes	5-1	80.51	8	Northside (Warner Robins)	3-3	62.56
9	Hillgrove	5-0	78.18	9	Sequoyah	4-0	61.59
10	Mill Creek	3-2	76.61	10	Allatoona	3-2	60.66
11	Milton	3-2	73.48	11	Dacula	3-2	60.16
12	Tift County	3-2	72.21	12	Alpharetta	3-1	59.88
13	Brookwood	4-1	71.64	13	Glynn Academy	2-3	59.02
14	Camden County	4-1	71.28	14	Douglas County	4-1	59.01
15	Roswell	4-1	70.34	15	Lanier	3-2	53.58

AAAAA				AAAA
Rank	Team	Rec	Rating	Rank	Team	Rec	Rating
1	Rome	5-0	84.21	1	Blessed Trinity	5-0	85.28
2	Buford	3-2	78.79	2	Cartersville	5-0	77.99
3	Warner Robins	4-1	74.35	3	St. Pius X	5-1	72.76
4	Stockbridge	5-0	71.90	4	Mary Persons	5-0	72.25
5	Jones County	5-0	67.55	5	Troup	5-0	70.64
6	Ware County	4-1	66.55	6	Marist	4-1	68.70
7	Wayne County	5-0	65.68	7	Burke County	3-2	61.02
8	Dutchtown	5-0	65.65	8	Eastside	4-0	58.17
9	Carrollton	4-1	64.04	9	Flowery Branch	4-0	57.75
10	Veterans	6-0	58.68	10	Sandy Creek	3-1	56.99
11	Kell	2-2	57.01	11	Chapel Hill	4-1	56.22
12	Southwest DeKalb	5-0	56.67	12	Ridgeland	2-2	55.87
13	Locust Grove	2-3	54.17	13	Woodward Academy	2-2	55.43
14	Griffin	3-2	53.48	14	West Laurens	4-1	54.56
15	East Paulding	1-3	53.18	15	Cedartown	2-3	54.13

AAA				AA
Rank	Team	Rec	Rating	Rank	Team	Rec	Rating
1	Cedar Grove	4-1	72.82	1	Hapeville Charter	4-0	72.68
2	Benedictine	3-1	72.11	2	Thomasville	4-1	62.01
3	Calhoun	5-0	70.79	3	Dodge County	5-0	60.07
4	Peach County	3-2	64.20	4	Rockmart	5-0	58.15
5	Greater Atlanta Christian	3-2	63.48	5	Callaway	4-1	56.32
6	Westminster (Atlanta)	3-2	60.65	6	Bremen	4-0	55.81
7	Monroe Area	5-0	56.71	7	Rabun County	4-1	55.54
8	Jefferson	4-1	55.58	8	Fitzgerald	3-2	51.44
9	Crisp County	3-3	53.53	9	Washington County	4-0	50.67
10	Pace Academy	3-2	52.83	10	Brooks County	3-2	50.42
11	Lovett	1-4	51.96	11	Vidalia	5-0	49.48
12	Dawson County	5-0	50.12	12	Heard County	3-2	46.57
13	Liberty County	3-1	49.69	13	Dublin	4-1	45.38
14	North Hall	5-0	47.15	14	Douglass	5-0	44.67
15	Pierce County	5-0	45.51	15	Jefferson County	3-2	40.99

A - Public				A - Private
Rank	Team	Rec	Rating	Rank	Team	Rec	Rating
1	Irwin County	5-0	61.46	1	Eagle's Landing Christian	4-1	62.33
2	Clinch County	4-1	52.68	2	Prince Avenue Christian	5-0	53.29
3	Commerce	5-0	44.72	3	Athens Academy	4-0	53.20
4	Marion County	5-0	42.46	4	Fellowship Christian	5-0	46.58
5	Mount Zion (Carroll)	4-1	39.54	5	Calvary Day	4-0	42.17
6	Charlton County	4-1	38.23	6	Mount Paran Christian	2-2	41.59
7	Pelham	5-0	38.22	7	George Walton Academy	5-0	39.65
8	Macon County	2-2	34.01	8	Aquinas	4-0	37.94
9	Schley County	4-1	33.03	9	Darlington	4-1	37.67
10	Emanuel County Institute	2-3	31.86	10	Savannah Christian	3-1	36.99
11	Mitchell County	4-1	31.72	11	Savannah Country Day	4-0	35.33
12	Manchester	2-2	30.46	12	Mount Vernon Presbyterian	4-1	35.24
13	Turner County	3-2	30.37	13	Wesleyan	2-3	34.16
14	Dooly County	1-3	29.23	14	Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)	3-2	33.86
15	Telfair County	2-3	27.00	15	Christian Heritage	4-0	33.34

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

Rank	Team	Region	Rec	Rating	SchStr	Rank
1 [1]	Colquitt County	1 - AAAAAAA	6-0	99.75	73.56	5
2 [2]	Archer	8 - AAAAAAA	4-1	86.55	74.05	4
3 [3]	Grayson	8 - AAAAAAA	3-2	86.26	73.36	6
4 [1]	Blessed Trinity	7 - AAAA	5-0	85.28	62.02	18
5 [4]	Walton	4 - AAAAAAA	5-0	84.47	61.92	19
6 [1]	Rome	7 - AAAAA	5-0	84.21	49.67	83
7 [5]	North Gwinnett	6 - AAAAAAA	3-2	83.97	67.30	11
8 [6]	Parkview	7 - AAAAAAA	4-0	82.46	72.09	8
9 [7]	McEachern	3 - AAAAAAA	4-1	82.00	61.13	23
10 [8]	Lowndes	1 - AAAAAAA	5-1	80.51	48.53	91
11 [1]	Lee County	1 - AAAAAA	5-0	79.48	39.01	187
12 [2]	Buford	8 - AAAAA	3-2	78.79	60.38	25
13 [9]	Hillgrove	3 - AAAAAAA	5-0	78.18	57.37	39
14 [2]	Cartersville	5 - AAAA	5-0	77.99	41.34	157
15 [10]	Mill Creek	6 - AAAAAAA	3-2	76.61	69.36	10
16 [3]	Warner Robins	1 - AAAAA	4-1	74.35	63.74	14
17 [2]	Coffee	1 - AAAAAA	6-0	73.78	36.21	209
18 [11]	Milton	5 - AAAAAAA	3-2	73.48	75.37	3
19 [1]	Cedar Grove	5 - AAA	4-1	72.82	52.27	66
20 [3]	St. Pius X	8 - AAAA	5-1	72.76	50.32	79
21 [1]	Hapeville Charter	6 - AA	4-0	72.68	27.34	283
22 [4]	Mary Persons	2 - AAAA	5-0	72.25	45.48	117
23 [12]	Tift County	1 - AAAAAAA	3-2	72.21	60.87	24
24 [2]	Benedictine	3 - AAA	3-1	72.11	38.09	194
25 [4]	Stockbridge	4 - AAAAA	5-0	71.90	41.86	150
26 [13]	Brookwood	7 - AAAAAAA	4-1	71.64	50.49	77
27 [14]	Camden County	1 - AAAAAAA	4-1	71.28	53.30	59
28 [3]	Calhoun	6 - AAA	5-0	70.79	31.52	250
29 [5]	Troup	5 - AAAA	5-0	70.64	49.35	84
30 [15]	Roswell	4 - AAAAAAA	4-1	70.34	58.29	36
31 [16]	Marietta	3 - AAAAAAA	1-4	69.22	76.46	2
32 [17]	Norcross	7 - AAAAAAA	2-3	69.09	72.80	7
33 [6]	Marist	7 - AAAA	4-1	68.70	54.80	50
34 [18]	North Cobb	3 - AAAAAAA	5-0	68.57	52.44	63
35 [19]	Westlake	2 - AAAAAAA	3-2	68.18	61.15	22
36 [20]	North Paulding	3 - AAAAAAA	5-0	67.77	44.56	123
37 [21]	South Forsyth	5 - AAAAAAA	3-2	67.65	62.84	16
38 [5]	Jones County	4 - AAAAA	5-0	67.55	43.93	128
39 [6]	Ware County	2 - AAAAA	4-1	66.55	58.39	35
40 [3]	Harrison	6 - AAAAAA	6-0	66.53	42.96	139
41 [7]	Wayne County	2 - AAAAA	5-0	65.68	40.33	171
42 [8]	Dutchtown	4 - AAAAA	5-0	65.65	44.70	122
43 [22]	Mountain View	6 - AAAAAAA	4-1	65.46	54.72	51
44 [4]	Creekview	6 - AAAAAA	5-0	65.35	44.09	127
45 [4]	Peach County	4 - AAA	3-2	64.20	57.96	37
46 [9]	Carrollton	7 - AAAAA	4-1	64.04	50.47	78
47 [23]	Wheeler	2 - AAAAAAA	5-0	63.55	47.98	99
48 [5]	Greater Atlanta Christian	7 - AAA	3-2	63.48	47.59	102
49 [5]	Mays	5 - AAAAAA	2-2	62.83	48.02	96
50 [6]	Tucker	4 - AAAAAA	3-2	62.63	47.46	104
51 [7]	Valdosta	1 - AAAAAA	2-3	62.60	66.68	12
52 [8]	Northside (Warner Robins)	1 - AAAAAA	3-3	62.56	55.34	48
53 [1]	Eagle's Landing Christian	5 - A	4-1	62.33	35.44	216
54 [2]	Thomasville	1 - AA	4-1	62.01	53.30	58
55 [9]	Sequoyah	6 - AAAAAA	4-0	61.59	40.27	173
56 [1]	Irwin County	2 - A	5-0	61.46	41.72	152
57 [7]	Burke County	3 - AAAA	3-2	61.02	47.54	103
58 [10]	Allatoona	6 - AAAAAA	3-2	60.66	49.84	81
59 [6]	Westminster (Atlanta)	5 - AAA	3-2	60.65	59.50	30
60 [11]	Dacula	8 - AAAAAA	3-2	60.16	51.02	72
61 [3]	Dodge County	3 - AA	5-0	60.07	44.80	121
62 [12]	Alpharetta	7 - AAAAAA	3-1	59.88	47.25	107
63 [13]	Glynn Academy	2 - AAAAAA	2-3	59.02	47.99	98
64 [14]	Douglas County	5 - AAAAAA	4-1	59.01	47.36	105
65 [24]	Collins Hill	6 - AAAAAAA	0-4	58.73	76.83	1
66 [25]	West Forsyth	5 - AAAAAAA	1-4	58.69	62.24	17
67 [10]	Veterans	1 - AAAAA	6-0	58.68	43.10	138
68 [26]	Etowah	4 - AAAAAAA	2-3	58.63	61.36	21
69 [8]	Eastside	4 - AAAA	4-0	58.17	40.28	172
70 [4]	Rockmart	7 - AA	5-0	58.15	28.36	276
71 [27]	Newton	8 - AAAAAAA	2-3	57.99	56.66	41
72 [9]	Flowery Branch	7 - AAAA	4-0	57.75	40.65	166
73 [11]	Kell	7 - AAAAA	2-2	57.01	56.32	42
74 [10]	Sandy Creek	5 - AAAA	3-1	56.99	40.84	164
75 [7]	Monroe Area	8 - AAA	5-0	56.71	32.79	238
76 [12]	Southwest DeKalb	5 - AAAAA	5-0	56.67	38.23	193
77 [5]	Callaway	5 - AA	4-1	56.32	21.75	330
78 [11]	Chapel Hill	5 - AAAA	4-1	56.22	47.67	100
79 [12]	Ridgeland	6 - AAAA	2-2	55.87	59.13	32
80 [6]	Bremen	5 - AA	4-0	55.81	30.27	257
81 [8]	Jefferson	8 - AAA	4-1	55.58	33.83	229
82 [7]	Rabun County	8 - AA	4-1	55.54	32.72	239
83 [13]	Woodward Academy	4 - AAAA	2-2	55.43	44.26	125
84 [28]	Woodstock	4 - AAAAAAA	2-3	54.74	56.27	43
85 [14]	West Laurens	2 - AAAA	4-1	54.56	39.41	185
86 [13]	Locust Grove	4 - AAAAA	2-3	54.17	61.44	20
87 [15]	Cedartown	5 - AAAA	2-3	54.13	52.25	67
88 [15]	Lanier	8 - AAAAAA	3-2	53.58	50.56	76
89 [9]	Crisp County	1 - AAA	3-3	53.53	55.21	49
90 [14]	Griffin	3 - AAAAA	3-2	53.48	45.80	116
91 [16]	Stephenson	4 - AAAAAA	3-1	53.42	34.18	227
92 [2]	Prince Avenue Christian	8 - A	5-0	53.29	22.60	325
93 [3]	Athens Academy	8 - A	4-0	53.20	21.32	332
94 [15]	East Paulding	7 - AAAAA	1-3	53.18	60.11	27
95 [16]	Thomas County Central	1 - AAAAA	4-1	52.85	41.04	162
96 [10]	Pace Academy	5 - AAA	3-2	52.83	40.86	163
97 [17]	Clarke Central	8 - AAAAA	3-2	52.72	51.39	70
98 [29]	South Gwinnett	8 - AAAAAAA	2-3	52.70	57.75	38
99 [2]	Clinch County	2 - A	4-1	52.68	37.08	200
100 [17]	Brunswick	2 - AAAAAA	2-3	52.65	52.55	62
101 [30]	Newnan	2 - AAAAAAA	2-3	52.44	54.54	53
102 [31]	East Coweta	2 - AAAAAAA	0-5	52.36	70.00	9
103 [18]	Banneker	6 - AAAAA	4-1	52.01	42.02	147
104 [11]	Lovett	5 - AAA	1-4	51.96	65.91	13
105 [18]	Dalton	6 - AAAAAA	2-3	51.52	53.08	61
106 [32]	Pebblebrook	2 - AAAAAAA	2-3	51.47	53.85	55
107 [16]	Upson-Lee	2 - AAAA	3-2	51.46	51.92	69
108 [8]	Fitzgerald	1 - AA	3-2	51.44	46.09	113
109 [33]	Central Gwinnett	7 - AAAAAAA	1-4	51.42	59.83	28
110 [34]	Meadowcreek	7 - AAAAAAA	5-0	50.83	31.42	251
111 [9]	Washington County	3 - AA	4-0	50.67	36.50	205
112 [10]	Brooks County	1 - AA	3-2	50.42	46.82	111
113 [19]	Centennial	7 - AAAAAA	2-2	50.36	49.82	82
114 [35]	Kennesaw Mountain	3 - AAAAAAA	4-1	50.30	41.61	154
115 [17]	Oconee County	8 - AAAA	4-2	50.20	44.88	120
116 [12]	Dawson County	7 - AAA	5-0	50.12	27.43	281
117 [13]	Liberty County	2 - AAA	3-1	49.69	41.78	151
118 [20]	Johns Creek	7 - AAAAAA	4-1	49.63	30.17	258
119 [18]	Thomson	3 - AAAA	2-3	49.55	47.66	101
120 [19]	Cairo	1 - AAAA	3-2	49.52	42.55	143
121 [11]	Vidalia	2 - AA	5-0	49.48	21.57	331
122 [19]	Hiram	7 - AAAAA	3-1	49.18	42.43	144
123 [21]	Effingham County	2 - AAAAAA	4-2	48.66	35.63	214
124 [20]	Carver (Columbus)	1 - AAAA	5-0	48.42	31.36	252
125 [22]	Hughes	5 - AAAAAA	1-4	48.30	59.36	31
126 [36]	Cherokee	4 - AAAAAAA	2-3	48.04	55.39	46
127 [21]	Perry	2 - AAAA	4-1	48.04	40.74	165
128 [23]	Richmond Hill	2 - AAAAAA	1-3	47.66	55.68	45
129 [20]	Bainbridge	1 - AAAAA	2-3	47.31	43.84	129
130 [24]	Alexander	5 - AAAAAA	2-2	47.27	43.55	134
131 [14]	North Hall	7 - AAA	5-0	47.15	23.23	318
132 [37]	Lambert	5 - AAAAAAA	3-2	47.07	43.72	132
133 [4]	Fellowship Christian	6 - A	5-0	46.58	26.14	294
134 [12]	Heard County	5 - AA	3-2	46.57	41.38	156
135 [22]	Richmond Academy	3 - AAAA	5-0	45.85	28.15	278
136 [25]	Lovejoy	4 - AAAAAA	3-2	45.60	42.41	145
137 [15]	Pierce County	2 - AAA	5-0	45.51	13.50	386
138 [26]	Houston County	1 - AAAAAA	2-3	45.48	43.64	133
139 [13]	Dublin	3 - AA	4-1	45.38	30.09	260
140 [16]	Jackson	4 - AAA	3-2	45.27	43.25	136
141 [27]	Northgate	5 - AAAAAA	2-3	45.11	48.91	86
142 [21]	Starr's Mill	3 - AAAAA	2-3	45.00	44.09	126
143 [38]	North Forsyth	5 - AAAAAAA	2-3	44.79	45.88	115
144 [3]	Commerce	8 - A	5-0	44.72	22.43	326
145 [14]	Douglass	6 - AA	5-0	44.67	22.95	322
146 [28]	Winder-Barrow	8 - AAAAAA	2-3	44.37	48.00	97
147 [22]	Arabia Mountain	5 - AAAAA	2-3	44.35	48.50	92
148 [39]	Lassiter	4 - AAAAAAA	1-4	44.27	55.37	47
149 [23]	Stephens County	8 - AAAA	4-2	43.98	40.24	175
150 [24]	Spalding	2 - AAAA	3-2	43.84	38.03	195
151 [17]	Westside (Macon)	4 - AAA	3-2	43.61	37.58	198
152 [29]	Sprayberry	6 - AAAAAA	1-4	43.46	60.36	26
153 [40]	Campbell	2 - AAAAAAA	1-4	43.30	63.62	15
154 [30]	Creekside	5 - AAAAAA	2-3	43.30	47.05	110
155 [25]	Howard	2 - AAAA	3-2	43.28	40.08	179
156 [23]	Woodland (Stockbridge)	4 - AAAAA	2-3	42.54	44.53	124
157 [4]	Marion County	4 - A	5-0	42.46	23.22	319
158 [24]	Carver (Atlanta)	6 - AAAAA	2-3	42.40	43.54	135
159 [25]	Cedar Shoals	8 - AAAAA	3-2	42.18	38.63	192
160 [5]	Calvary Day	3 - A	4-0	42.17	2.43	410
161 [26]	Statesboro	2 - AAAAA	2-3	42.02	48.56	90
162 [26]	Pickens	6 - AAAA	5-0	41.93	6.37	407
163 [31]	Mundy's Mill	4 - AAAAAA	4-2	41.81	35.54	215
164 [27]	New Hampstead	2 - AAAAA	2-2	41.71	35.88	211
165 [18]	Appling County	2 - AAA	2-3	41.68	49.00	85
166 [6]	Mount Paran Christian	6 - A	2-2	41.59	25.19	300
167 [28]	Villa Rica	7 - AAAAA	3-2	41.51	37.38	199
168 [32]	Heritage (Conyers)	3 - AAAAAA	2-3	41.42	45.17	119
169 [29]	Ola	4 - AAAAA	1-4	41.36	54.07	54
170 [19]	Pike County	4 - AAA	4-0	41.32	9.10	401
171 [15]	Jefferson County	4 - AA	3-2	40.99	29.53	266
172 [30]	Jonesboro	3 - AAAAA	2-3	40.56	52.34	65
173 [33]	South Paulding	5 - AAAAAA	1-4	40.30	53.16	60
174 [31]	Riverwood	6 - AAAAA	3-2	40.08	31.70	248
175 [27]	Americus-Sumter	1 - AAAA	2-3	40.05	40.09	178
176 [16]	Swainsboro	2 - AA	2-2	39.99	39.42	184
177 [32]	Eagle's Landing	4 - AAAAA	1-4	39.95	50.65	74
178 [7]	George Walton Academy	8 - A	5-0	39.65	17.68	361
179 [5]	Mount Zion (Carroll)	6 - A	4-1	39.54	24.56	306
180 [28]	Hardaway	1 - AAAA	3-2	39.51	35.10	218
181 [17]	Elbert County	8 - AA	4-1	39.23	19.06	347
182 [33]	Loganville	8 - AAAAA	2-3	39.07	47.29	106
183 [34]	Harris County	1 - AAAAA	1-4	39.06	48.70	88
184 [18]	Early County	1 - AA	4-1	39.02	33.55	232
185 [29]	North Oconee	8 - AAAA	5-1	38.96	26.92	286
186 [34]	Gainesville	8 - AAAAAA	0-5	38.88	54.60	52
187 [19]	Southwest	3 - AA	2-3	38.67	48.32	94
188 [20]	Jenkins	3 - AAA	3-1	38.62	26.60	291
189 [41]	Peachtree Ridge	6 - AAAAAAA	0-5	38.52	58.86	33
190 [35]	Riverdale	3 - AAAAA	4-1	38.47	29.99	262
191 [6]	Charlton County	2 - A	4-1	38.23	26.07	295
192 [30]	Baldwin	3 - AAAA	1-5	38.22	57.33	40
193 [7]	Pelham	1 - A	5-0	38.22	-0.50	413
194 [20]	Washington	6 - AA	4-2	38.22	27.25	285
195 [36]	Woodland (Cartersville)	7 - AAAAA	4-1	38.18	29.52	267
196 [31]	Columbus	1 - AAAA	2-2	37.99	42.60	142
197 [32]	Denmark	7 - AAAA	4-1	37.96	27.43	282
198 [37]	Maynard Jackson	6 - AAAAA	2-3	37.95	40.19	177
199 [8]	Aquinas	7 - A	4-0	37.94	19.73	343
200 [33]	Northwest Whitfield	6 - AAAA	3-1	37.73	7.67	403
201 [9]	Darlington	6 - A	4-1	37.67	24.34	309
202 [35]	Pope	7 - AAAAAA	1-4	37.48	52.41	64
203 [42]	Shiloh	8 - AAAAAAA	2-3	37.37	38.83	189
204 [36]	Evans	3 - AAAAAA	0-5	37.31	52.00	68
205 [37]	Habersham Central	8 - AAAAAA	3-2	37.09	34.95	221
206 [38]	Alcovy	3 - AAAAAA	2-2	37.06	46.46	112
207 [10]	Savannah Christian	3 - A	3-1	36.99	25.13	301
208 [39]	Bradwell Institute	2 - AAAAAA	2-3	36.76	41.89	149
209 [34]	Salem	4 - AAAA	2-2	36.72	40.23	176
210 [21]	North Murray	6 - AAA	3-2	36.06	35.85	212
211 [21]	Union County	8 - AA	5-0	35.75	12.55	390
212 [40]	South Cobb	6 - AAAAAA	1-5	35.69	56.00	44
213 [11]	Savannah Country Day	3 - A	4-0	35.33	14.13	384
214 [41]	Northview	7 - AAAAAA	3-2	35.26	31.91	246
215 [12]	Mount Vernon Presbyterian	5 - A	4-1	35.24	23.33	317
216 [38]	Union Grove	4 - AAAAA	2-2	35.06	42.83	140
217 [22]	Southeast Bulloch	3 - AAA	4-0	35.04	18.47	353
218 [22]	Berrien	1 - AA	4-1	34.61	25.83	296
219 [43]	Forsyth Central	5 - AAAAAAA	4-1	34.61	15.94	371
220 [23]	Cook	1 - AAA	2-4	34.46	42.70	141
221 [13]	Wesleyan	5 - A	2-3	34.16	34.84	223
222 [42]	Grovetown	3 - AAAAAA	1-4	34.09	47.09	108
223 [8]	Macon County	4 - A	2-2	34.01	22.92	323
224 [35]	West Hall	7 - AAAA	1-4	33.99	50.63	75
225 [14]	Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)	5 - A	3-2	33.86	32.42	240
226 [43]	River Ridge	6 - AAAAAA	1-4	33.69	59.68	29
227 [23]	Screven County	4 - AA	3-2	33.44	22.76	324
228 [15]	Christian Heritage	6 - A	4-0	33.34	15.28	375
229 [39]	Whitewater	3 - AAAAA	0-5	33.29	53.78	56
230 [36]	Westover	1 - AAAA	2-3	33.11	35.00	220
231 [9]	Schley County	4 - A	4-1	33.03	20.62	336
232 [40]	Paulding County	7 - AAAAA	0-5	32.75	48.85	87
233 [24]	Chattooga	7 - AA	4-1	32.59	20.11	340
234 [16]	Whitefield Academy	6 - A	4-1	32.58	17.21	364
235 [24]	Hart County	8 - AAA	2-3	32.54	35.71	213
236 [37]	Central (Carrollton)	5 - AAAA	2-3	32.25	39.93	181
237 [44]	North Atlanta	7 - AAAAAA	3-1	32.19	27.78	280
238 [25]	Hephzibah	4 - AA	4-1	32.17	23.67	314
239 [44]	Rockdale County	8 - AAAAAAA	1-4	32.08	41.93	148
240 [10]	Emanuel County Institute	3 - A	2-3	31.86	28.96	272
241 [38]	Northside (Columbus)	1 - AAAA	2-3	31.81	34.36	226
242 [11]	Mitchell County	1 - A	4-1	31.72	6.96	405
243 [45]	Drew	4 - AAAAAA	1-4	31.71	48.60	89
244 [45]	Discovery	6 - AAAAAAA	1-4	31.67	51.22	71
245 [39]	LaGrange	5 - AAAA	1-3	31.51	41.25	159
246 [25]	Central (Macon)	4 - AAA	1-4	31.47	41.30	158
247 [41]	Columbia	5 - AAAAA	1-4	31.20	58.62	34
248 [26]	Northeast	3 - AA	2-3	31.00	35.08	219
249 [46]	Cambridge	7 - AAAAAA	1-4	30.82	45.30	118
250 [27]	Harlem	4 - AA	3-2	30.75	26.18	293
251 [40]	White County	7 - AAAA	1-4	30.72	41.12	160
252 [28]	Bleckley County	3 - AA	2-3	30.63	33.36	234
253 [12]	Manchester	4 - A	2-2	30.46	24.17	311
254 [29]	Pepperell	7 - AA	3-2	30.45	24.92	304
255 [47]	Morrow	4 - AAAAAA	1-5	30.45	50.67	73
256 [46]	Duluth	6 - AAAAAAA	2-3	30.41	40.36	170
257 [13]	Turner County	2 - A	3-2	30.37	26.30	292
258 [48]	M.L. King	4 - AAAAAA	1-3	30.10	39.52	182
259 [49]	New Manchester	5 - AAAAAA	1-4	29.94	47.07	109
260 [42]	Decatur	6 - AAAAA	2-2	29.51	30.14	259
261 [14]	Dooly County	4 - A	1-3	29.23	38.90	188
262 [50]	Tri-Cities	5 - AAAAAA	0-4	29.01	48.21	95
263 [17]	Mount de Sales	7 - A	5-0	28.90	17.75	360
264 [18]	Hebron Christian Academy	8 - A	2-2	28.83	31.57	249
265 [43]	North Springs	6 - AAAAA	1-3	28.14	33.47	233
266 [51]	Lakeside (Evans)	3 - AAAAAA	2-2	28.14	28.65	273
267 [44]	South Effingham	2 - AAAAA	1-4	27.93	41.64	153
268 [30]	South Atlanta	6 - AA	3-2	27.50	19.79	342
269 [45]	Cass	7 - AAAAA	1-4	27.50	40.25	174
270 [31]	Metter	2 - AA	4-1	27.47	18.87	348
271 [15]	Telfair County	2 - A	2-3	27.00	28.63	274
272 [26]	Sonoraville	6 - AAA	2-2	26.76	26.70	289
273 [32]	Spencer	5 - AA	0-5	26.68	40.55	168
274 [46]	Lithonia	5 - AAAAA	3-2	26.51	21.18	333
275 [27]	Ringgold	6 - AAA	1-4	26.50	39.23	186
276 [41]	Luella	4 - AAAA	2-2	26.48	30.32	256
277 [42]	Madison County	8 - AAAA	2-4	26.47	31.96	245
278 [28]	Morgan County	8 - AAA	1-4	26.38	38.65	191
279 [29]	East Hall	7 - AAA	1-4	25.92	43.81	131
280 [19]	Stratford Academy	7 - A	1-4	25.75	34.51	225
281 [52]	Apalachee	8 - AAAAAA	2-3	25.71	32.20	243
282 [43]	Hampton	4 - AAAA	1-3	25.66	36.23	208
283 [33]	Toombs County	2 - AA	3-2	25.64	19.69	346
284 [34]	Jeff Davis	2 - AA	4-1	25.53	16.25	368
285 [53]	Greenbrier	3 - AAAAAA	0-4	25.48	43.13	137
286 [20]	North Cobb Christian	6 - A	5-0	25.45	14.67	378
287 [30]	Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe	6 - AAA	4-1	25.40	14.40	382
288 [47]	Miller Grove	5 - AAAAA	1-3	25.31	36.56	204
289 [48]	Walnut Grove	8 - AAAAA	1-4	24.88	36.56	203
290 [54]	Chattahoochee	7 - AAAAAA	0-5	24.59	41.46	155
291 [31]	Windsor Forest	3 - AAA	2-2	24.54	24.44	308
292 [21]	Brookstone	4 - A	3-1	24.27	2.37	411
293 [16]	Washington-Wilkes	7 - A	2-3	24.13	25.03	302
294 [17]	Lincoln County	7 - A	2-3	23.37	24.12	312
295 [22]	Pinecrest Academy	6 - A	2-3	23.35	26.79	288
296 [49]	McIntosh	3 - AAAAA	1-4	23.20	33.68	230
297 [55]	Mount Zion (Jonesboro)	4 - AAAAAA	1-4	23.20	37.67	196
298 [32]	Monroe	1 - AAA	3-3	23.19	23.17	320
299 [35]	Bacon County	2 - AA	1-4	22.96	36.29	207
300 [18]	Trion	6 - A	4-1	22.86	9.66	400
301 [23]	Holy Innocents	5 - A	2-3	22.64	27.90	279
302 [33]	Adairsville	6 - AAA	2-3	22.58	23.79	313
303 [44]	Heritage (Ringgold)	6 - AAAA	1-4	22.48	33.15	236
304 [50]	Fayette County	3 - AAAAA	0-4	22.43	37.04	201
305 [19]	Wilcox County	2 - A	3-2	22.28	17.95	359
306 [20]	Atkinson County	2 - A	3-2	22.07	20.58	337
307 [36]	Lamar County	5 - AA	3-2	21.90	7.62	404
308 [34]	Franklin County	8 - AAA	1-3	21.88	34.83	224
309 [45]	Shaw	1 - AAAA	2-2	21.79	22.18	328
310 [37]	Butler	4 - AA	2-2	21.73	26.85	287
311 [47]	Lakeside (Atlanta)	7 - AAAAAAA	1-4	21.66	35.89	210
312 [51]	Grady	6 - AAAAA	1-4	21.62	32.23	242
313 [46]	North Clayton	4 - AAAA	0-4	21.56	53.53	57
314 [35]	Jackson County	8 - AAA	2-3	21.18	24.26	310
315 [21]	Johnson County	3 - A	3-1	21.02	12.93	388
316 [22]	Claxton	3 - A	3-1	20.98	18.51	352
317 [56]	Dunwoody	7 - AAAAAA	1-4	20.80	40.60	167
318 [38]	B.E.S.T. Academy	6 - AA	1-4	20.62	39.46	183
319 [24]	Tattnall Square	7 - A	2-3	20.07	20.24	338
320 [47]	LaFayette	6 - AAAA	4-1	19.92	14.10	385
321 [36]	Tattnall County	2 - AAA	0-4	19.92	36.32	206
322 [23]	Jenkins County	3 - A	2-3	19.15	21.11	335
323 [24]	Greene County	7 - A	2-2	18.54	17.05	365
324 [25]	Strong Rock Christian	5 - A	3-2	18.20	14.43	381
325 [39]	Laney	4 - AA	2-3	18.14	28.30	277
326 [37]	Haralson County	6 - AAA	3-1	18.04	10.83	397
327 [25]	Taylor County	4 - A	1-3	17.83	25.26	299
328 [48]	Chestatee	7 - AAAA	1-4	17.78	34.92	222
329 [26]	Hancock Central	7 - A	3-2	17.54	11.73	395
330 [38]	Savannah	3 - AAA	0-4	17.44	45.90	114
331 [40]	Coosa	7 - AA	0-5	17.43	32.37	241
332 [41]	Therrell	6 - AA	1-4	17.17	48.34	93
333 [26]	Mount Pisgah Christian	6 - A	2-3	16.88	19.73	344
334 [27]	Montgomery County	3 - A	2-2	16.51	15.23	376
335 [49]	Henry County	4 - AAAA	0-4	16.40	40.06	180
336 [39]	Worth County	1 - AAA	1-4	16.26	33.60	231
337 [42]	KIPP Atlanta Collegiate	6 - AA	2-4	16.02	24.82	305
338 [40]	Brantley County	2 - AAA	0-4	15.53	31.87	247
339 [27]	Athens Christian	8 - A	2-3	15.39	22.15	329
340 [50]	Cross Creek	3 - AAAA	2-2	14.87	15.15	377
341 [43]	McNair	6 - AA	2-3	14.83	29.41	269
342 [28]	Miller County	1 - A	2-2	14.77	14.13	383
343 [44]	Monticello	8 - AA	1-4	14.59	30.55	255
344 [29]	Chattahoochee County	1 - A	3-2	14.51	12.22	392
345 [30]	Bowdon	6 - A	0-4	14.31	29.80	263
346 [51]	Southeast Whitfield	6 - AAAA	2-3	14.22	20.02	341
347 [31]	McIntosh County Academy	3 - A	0-4	14.13	40.43	169
348 [45]	Model	7 - AA	2-3	14.05	17.29	363
349 [32]	Warren County	7 - A	3-2	13.83	11.92	394
350 [41]	Islands	3 - AAA	1-3	13.53	29.29	270
351 [57]	Forest Park	4 - AAAAAA	0-5	13.43	33.06	237
352 [28]	First Presbyterian	7 - A	0-4	13.39	30.01	261
353 [52]	Dougherty	1 - AAAA	0-5	13.24	41.09	161
354 [42]	Redan	5 - AAA	0-5	12.98	33.23	235
355 [46]	Temple	5 - AA	1-4	12.32	30.66	254
356 [47]	Banks County	8 - AA	3-2	12.30	2.82	408
357 [48]	Bryan County	2 - AA	1-3	12.09	27.28	284
358 [49]	Putnam County	8 - AA	1-4	11.44	32.02	244
359 [43]	Beach	3 - AAA	0-4	11.39	38.65	190
360 [50]	East Laurens	3 - AA	1-4	10.27	29.73	264
361 [29]	St. Francis	6 - A	1-3	10.13	18.38	354
362 [52]	Lithia Springs	6 - AAAAA	2-3	9.77	14.58	380
363 [30]	Walker	6 - A	0-4	9.63	26.67	290
364 [53]	Druid Hills	4 - AAAA	2-2	9.35	11.95	393
365 [33]	Hawkinsville	4 - A	2-3	9.03	17.57	362
366 [53]	Johnson (Gainesville)	8 - AAAAA	4-1	8.69	-7.89	417
367 [44]	Lumpkin County	7 - AAA	2-3	8.17	15.67	373
368 [34]	Wilkinson County	7 - A	0-4	7.20	34.17	228
369 [35]	Gordon Lee	6 - A	1-4	6.97	22.31	327
370 [45]	Fannin County	7 - AAA	1-3	6.80	16.00	370
371 [46]	Towers	5 - AAA	0-5	6.78	31.00	253
372 [36]	Towns County	8 - A	2-3	6.55	42.23	146
373 [51]	Glenn Hills	4 - AA	0-4	6.40	25.02	303
374 [37]	Seminole County	1 - A	3-2	5.51	-2.14	414
375 [54]	Chamblee	5 - AAAAA	0-5	5.50	49.85	80
376 [31]	Our Lady of Mercy	5 - A	0-5	4.75	29.15	271
377 [32]	Landmark Christian	5 - A	1-4	4.61	18.80	350
378 [47]	Kendrick	4 - AAA	1-4	4.36	25.31	298
379 [48]	Long County	2 - AAA	0-5	3.83	37.58	197
380 [49]	Rutland	4 - AAA	0-5	2.95	28.42	275
381 [52]	Gordon Central	7 - AA	1-4	2.83	23.49	315
382 [38]	Greenville	4 - A	1-3	2.68	23.14	321
383 [39]	Portal	3 - A	1-3	2.57	16.01	369
384 [53]	Westside (Augusta)	4 - AA	1-3	2.35	25.35	297
385 [58]	Osborne	6 - AAAAAA	0-6	2.27	35.21	217
386 [33]	Riverside Military Academy	8 - A	1-3	2.21	21.14	334
387 [54]	Social Circle	8 - AA	2-2	0.58	0.82	412
388 [40]	Terrell County	1 - A	1-4	-0.08	16.84	366
389 [55]	Dade County	7 - AA	0-5	-0.48	23.41	316
390 [56]	Armuchee	7 - AA	1-4	-0.49	18.37	355
391 [41]	Wheeler County	3 - A	1-3	-1.13	15.68	372
392 [34]	Providence Christian	8 - A	2-2	-2.70	18.86	349
393 [50]	Coahulla Creek	6 - AAA	1-3	-2.94	18.34	356
394 [42]	Lanier County	2 - A	0-5	-3.04	19.72	345
395 [35]	Lakeview Academy	8 - A	0-4	-3.35	20.13	339
396 [57]	Jordan	5 - AA	0-5	-3.41	16.46	367
397 [36]	Georgia Military College	7 - A	3-2	-3.88	-13.85	420
398 [58]	Josey	4 - AA	0-4	-5.23	18.07	358
399 [43]	Treutlen	3 - A	2-3	-5.75	2.48	409
400 [37]	Pacelli	4 - A	3-2	-6.39	-8.82	418
401 [38]	King's Ridge Christian	6 - A	0-4	-6.67	13.17	387
402 [51]	Cherokee Bluff	7 - AAA	0-5	-7.02	36.90	202
403 [48]	Berkmar	7 - AAAAAAA	2-3	-7.04	10.86	396
404 [52]	Murray County	6 - AAA	0-5	-7.55	12.27	391
405 [44]	Calhoun County	1 - A	1-4	-7.67	6.78	406
406 [53]	Stone Mountain	5 - AAA	0-4	-7.88	29.72	265
407 [54]	East Jackson	8 - AAA	1-4	-9.14	15.29	374
408 [55]	Johnson (Savannah)	3 - AAA	1-2	-9.23	29.50	268
409 [45]	Crawford County	4 - A	2-2	-9.86	-14.34	421
410 [54]	Gilmer	6 - AAAA	0-5	-15.17	10.66	398
411 [46]	Baconton Charter	1 - A	1-3	-17.42	14.61	379
412 [56]	Groves	3 - AAA	0-5	-18.22	43.82	130
413 [47]	Twiggs County	7 - A	0-5	-19.78	18.54	351
414 [59]	Oglethorpe County	8 - AA	0-5	-19.80	7.79	402
415 [48]	Central (Talbotton)	4 - A	0-4	-20.21	10.32	399
416 [49]	Stewart County	1 - A	2-3	-21.08	-7.20	416
417 [55]	Clarkston	5 - AAAAA†	0-6	-22.17	18.10	357
418 [50]	Randolph-Clay	1 - A	0-4	-24.72	24.45	307
419 [1]	Glascock County	7 - A†	0-5	-33.82	-8.82	419
420 [2]	ACE Charter	7 - A†	3-3	-35.13	-6.02	415
421 [3]	Pataula Charter	1 - A†	0-5	-52.38	-20.10	422
422 [56]	Cross Keys	5 - AAAAA†	0-6	-53.92	12.57	389

† - Plays a non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the Competitive Rating is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank	Region	Comp Rating	Avg Rating
1	1 - AAAAAAA	92.59	80.00
2	8 - AAAAAAA	82.64	57.24
3	3 - AAAAAAA	82.01	69.79
4	6 - AAAAAAA	78.05	55.06
5	1 - AAAAAA	77.32	65.21
6	4 - AAAAAAA	76.59	59.06
7	7 - AAAAAAA	76.37	54.18
8	7 - AAAA	74.25	45.16
9	5 - AAAA	73.03	54.77
10	7 - AAAAA	72.64	48.54
11	4 - AAAAA	70.32	51.84
12	5 - AAAAAAA	70.00	54.30
13	6 - AAAAAA	68.19	49.38
14	1 - AAAAA	67.78	53.92
15	2 - AAAAAAA	67.27	55.08
16	8 - AAAAA	65.88	40.17
17	2 - AAAA	65.65	51.50
18	5 - AAA	65.58	40.13
19	2 - AAAAA	64.39	48.50
20	8 - AAAA	63.00	45.36
21	5 - AAAAAA	61.55	44.95
22	2 - AAAAAA	59.09	49.06
23	1 - AA	59.09	47.46
24	6 - AA	57.65	28.54
25	8 - AAAAAA	57.17	43.25
26	4 - AAAAAA	56.85	36.50
27	3 - AAAA	56.64	43.30
28	7 - AAAAAA	55.89	37.41
29	4 - AAA	55.69	35.37
30	3 - AA	55.52	38.72
31	7 - AAA	55.35	27.30
32	3 - AAA	54.83	19.52
33	5 - AA	54.23	31.24
34	2 - A	53.96	31.22
35	6 - AAA	53.66	23.00
36	4 - AAAA	53.00	29.66
37	8 - AAA	52.46	29.59
38	8 - A	51.50	23.15
	8-Div A - A	52.06	34.71
	8-Div B - A	35.40	13.69
39	1 - AAAA	51.33	35.55
40	3 - AAAAA	51.06	36.65
41	5 - A	49.93	26.10
42	6 - AAAAA	49.21	33.04
43	6 - AAAA	47.95	26.61
44	2 - AAA	47.63	29.89
45	5 - AAAAA	47.62	31.48
46	6 - A	46.82	23.95
	6-Div B - A	42.37	21.69
	6-Div A - A	40.44	26.06
47	1 - AAA	45.54	30.87
48	8 - AA	45.45	18.14
49	7 - AA	44.71	17.27
50	3 - AAAAAA	44.56	33.96
51	2 - AA	44.39	28.55
52	3 - A	41.20	19.82
	3-Div A - A	40.89	26.01
	3-Div B - A	28.46	14.15
53	4 - A	40.46	17.27
	4-Div A - A	35.23	12.71
	4-Div B - A	34.95	20.48
54	4 - AA	39.41	20.82
55	7 - A	36.08	17.23
	7-Div B - A	33.05	19.14
	7-Div A - A	27.73	14.76
56	1 - A	30.27	2.56

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date	Team	Opponent	Score	Diff	Pct	Likelihood
08/17	Archer	Milton	19 - 21	13.08	78.7%	0.304
09/21	Lincoln County	Warren County	21 - 28	11.29	75.6%	0.310
08/24	Shiloh	Discovery	0 - 31	7.46	67.8%	0.334
09/14	Oconee County	Cedar Shoals	0 - 14	6.26	65.2%	0.381
08/31	Liberty County	Statesboro	6 - 23	5.91	64.4%	0.383
08/17	Chattooga	Adairsville	20 - 21	8.25	69.5%	0.385
08/24	Eagle's Landing Christian	Pace Academy	16 - 17	7.75	68.5%	0.393
09/07	Toombs County	Claxton	14 - 21	6.42	65.5%	0.395
09/07	Emanuel County Institute	Metter	13 - 14	6.15	64.9%	0.418
08/17	Decatur	Lakeside (Atlanta)	20 - 21	6.09	64.8%	0.419
09/14	Mount Zion (Carroll)	Christian Heritage	22 - 30	4.44	60.9%	0.427
09/14	Griffin	Upson-Lee	7 - 21	3.78	59.3%	0.429
08/31	Woodland (Stockbridge)	Jonesboro	7 - 19	3.74	59.2%	0.433
09/14	Milton	Roswell	20 - 22	4.90	62.0%	0.434
09/21	Roswell	Wheeler	36 - 37	5.03	62.3%	0.435

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating	Date	Team	Opponent	Score	Diff	Pct
89.79	09/21	Colquitt County	Grayson	26 - 14	11.73	76.4%
86.35	10/12	Grayson	Archer	-	1.46	53.7%
84.22	08/18	Colquitt County	McEachern	41 - 7	17.75	85.5%
84.10	09/14	Walton	North Gwinnett	27 - 24	2.26	55.6%
81.46	10/26	Colquitt County	Lowndes	-	20.99	89.1%
81.14	08/31	Parkview	Lowndes	39 - 27	3.70	59.2%
80.50	09/21	Archer	Buford	48 - 24	9.52	72.2%
79.98	10/05	McEachern	Hillgrove	-	2.06	55.1%
79.04	08/18	Walton	Mill Creek	48 - 27	7.86	68.7%
78.38	09/07	Archer	Mill Creek	42 - 0	11.70	76.3%
78.29	10/05	North Gwinnett	Mill Creek	-	9.12	71.3%
76.74	09/14	Colquitt County	Warner Robins	41 - 14	23.64	91.4%
76.28	08/17	Blessed Trinity	St. Pius X	35 - 13	10.76	74.6%
76.25	11/02	Lee County	Coffee	-	3.94	59.7%
76.09	08/17	Archer	Milton	19 - 21	13.08	78.7%

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

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