Sports

Maxwell Week 1 Summary: Lowndes dumps Valdosta, Colquitt, Mill Creek nip opposition in top games

(Daniel Varnado/For the AJC)
(Daniel Varnado/For the AJC)
By Loren Maxwell
Aug 21, 2017

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association's 418 teams throughout the 2017 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:

- Lowndes routed Valdosta in the most lopsided contest ever between the two South Georgia rivals. While giving a boost worth nearly a touchdown to Lowndes, the system still has some faith in the Wildcats, dropping them only three points to leave them at number two in Class AAAAAA. Meanwhile Tucker survived an overtime scare from Class AAAAA Kell to move past Valdosta.

- Colquitt County held off a late Norcross rally while Mill Creek staged a successful one against McEachern in two of the top rated games of the season. All four teams are still in the top six in Class AAAAAAA and although Grayson is still the front runner, the computer says there is a 44% chance the eventual state champion was involved in one of these games.

- Grayson hosts Alabama's top team, Hoover, this weekend in a game that unfortunately carries little weight in the ratings. Although I personally consider the MaxPreps/CalPreps formula to be suspect, what with "state scaling" and such, they project Grayson as a healthy favorite by a 31-14 score.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 73.35%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 124 of 131 total games including 0 tie(s) (94.66%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.93 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Home Advantage: -0.20

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Grayson 0-0 99.40 1 Tucker 1-0 79.94
2 Colquitt County 1-0 93.23 2 Valdosta 0-1 76.19
3 Mill Creek 1-0 93.02 3 Mays 0-0 74.34
4 Lowndes 1-0 85.65 4 Lee County 1-0 73.29
5 McEachern 0-1 84.82 5 Dalton 0-0 70.54
6 Norcross 0-1 78.87 6 Coffee 1-0 70.23
7 Archer 1-0 78.04 7 Harrison 1-0 70.01
8 Roswell 0-1 77.48 8 Allatoona 0-1 68.75
9 North Cobb 1-0 77.30 9 Glynn Academy 0-1 67.59
10 Parkview 1-0 75.28 10 Lovejoy 1-0 67.04
11 South Forsyth 1-0 73.60 11 Northgate 1-0 66.04
12 Westlake 0-0 71.16 12 Northside (Warner Robins) 0-1 65.91
13 Walton 1-0 69.70 13 Hughes 1-0 64.85
14 Camden County 1-0 69.38 14 Alexander 0-0 64.01
15 Tift County 1-0 67.84 15 Dacula 0-0 63.20
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 1-0 84.67 1 Cartersville 1-0 87.18
2 Stockbridge 0-0 72.95 2 Woodward Academy 0-0 72.42
3 Rome 0-0 70.82 3 Sandy Creek 1-0 70.73
4 Kell 0-1 70.20 4 Blessed Trinity 1-0 69.52
5 Carrollton 1-0 69.88 5 Thomson 1-0 68.02
6 Ware County 0-0 69.37 6 Jefferson 1-0 63.87
7 Jones County 1-0 69.28 7 Mary Persons 0-1 61.88
8 Warner Robins 1-0 63.96 8 Marist 0-0 61.32
9 Woodland (Stockbridge) 1-0 59.03 9 Burke County 1-0 55.53
10 Griffin 0-0 58.68 10 Spalding 0-0 54.50
11 Thomas County Central 1-0 58.58 11 St. Pius X 0-0 52.50
12 Bainbridge 0-0 57.66 12 West Laurens 0-0 49.68
13 Starr's Mill 0-0 56.26 13 Eastside 1-0 49.06
14 Carver (Atlanta) 1-0 52.57 14 Cairo 0-1 47.61
15 East Paulding 0-1 51.13 15 Upson-Lee 0-0 47.37
AAA AA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Greater Atlanta Christian 1-0 71.97 1 Benedictine 1-0 81.27
2 Cedar Grove 1-0 70.64 2 Callaway 1-0 58.34
3 Calhoun 1-0 60.88 3 Fitzgerald 0-1 57.41
4 Peach County 0-0 60.14 4 Brooks County 1-0 55.08
5 Westminster (Atlanta) 0-1 58.68 5 Rabun County 0-0 54.44
6 Lovett 0-1 56.50 6 Hapeville Charter 1-0 53.59
7 Pace Academy 0-0 53.05 7 Thomasville 1-0 52.20
8 Liberty County 0-0 52.82 8 Jefferson County 1-0 48.05
9 Crisp County 1-0 51.60 9 Screven County 1-0 47.70
10 Westside (Macon) 1-0 46.22 10 Dodge County 1-0 45.61
11 Worth County 0-1 46.08 11 Pepperell 0-0 45.34
12 Pierce County 0-0 45.01 12 Vidalia 0-1 41.74
13 Dawson County 0-0 40.19 13 Washington County 0-0 40.51
14 Cook 0-1 39.75 14 Model 0-0 39.97
15 Jenkins 1-0 39.12 15 Elbert County 1-0 39.25
A - Public A - Private
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Macon County 0-0 56.84 1 Eagle's Landing Christian 1-0 65.23
2 Clinch County 1-0 49.36 2 Prince Avenue Christian 1-0 54.79
3 Irwin County 1-0 47.50 3 Wesleyan 1-0 51.09
4 Emanuel County Institute 1-0 44.82 4 Mount Paran Christian 1-0 47.81
5 Manchester 1-0 42.19 5 Tattnall Square 0-0 47.01
6 Commerce 0-0 41.66 6 Fellowship Christian 1-0 44.48
7 McIntosh County Academy 1-0 41.62 7 Calvary Day 1-0 44.23
8 Mount Zion (Carroll) 0-0 38.06 8 Darlington 0-0 42.67
9 Turner County 1-0 36.06 9 Stratford Academy 0-0 41.32
10 Lincoln County 0-0 35.64 10 Aquinas 0-1 38.70
11 Taylor County 1-0 33.71 11 Mount Pisgah Christian 1-0 37.35
12 Dooly County 0-1 33.36 12 Pinecrest Academy 0-0 36.64
13 Charlton County 0-0 33.24 13 Athens Academy 1-0 36.49
14 Bowdon 0-0 33.07 14 Savannah Christian 0-1 34.54
15 Trion 0-0 31.22 15 Landmark Christian 0-1 34.29

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Grayson 8 - AAAAAAA 0-0 99.40    
2 [2] Colquitt County 1 - AAAAAAA 1-0 93.23 78.87 9
3 [3] Mill Creek 6 - AAAAAAA 1-0 93.02 84.82 5
4 [1] Cartersville 5 - AAAA 1-0 87.18 68.56 27
5 [4] Lowndes 1 - AAAAAAA 1-0 85.65 76.39 13
6 [5] McEachern 3 - AAAAAAA 0-1 84.82 93.02 2
7 [1] Buford 8 - AAAAA 1-0 84.67 64.02 46
8 [1] Benedictine 2 - AA 1-0 81.27 67.59 30
9 [1] Tucker 4 - AAAAAA 1-0 79.94 70.20 21
10 [6] Norcross 7 - AAAAAAA 0-1 78.87 93.23 1
11 [7] Archer 8 - AAAAAAA 1-0 78.04 66.63 33
12 [8] Roswell 4 - AAAAAAA 0-1 77.48 73.60 15
13 [9] North Cobb 3 - AAAAAAA 1-0 77.30 60.27 55
14 [2] Valdosta 1 - AAAAAA 0-1 76.19 85.45 4
15 [10] Parkview 7 - AAAAAAA 1-0 75.28 66.19 35
16 [3] Mays 5 - AAAAAA 0-0 74.34    
17 [11] South Forsyth 5 - AAAAAAA 1-0 73.60 77.48 12
18 [4] Lee County 1 - AAAAAA 1-0 73.29 61.88 51
19 [2] Stockbridge 4 - AAAAA 0-0 72.95    
20 [2] Woodward Academy 4 - AAAA 0-0 72.42    
21 [1] Greater Atlanta Christian 7 - AAA 1-0 71.97 56.30 66
22 [12] Westlake 2 - AAAAAAA 0-0 71.16    
23 [3] Rome 7 - AAAAA 0-0 70.82    
24 [3] Sandy Creek 5 - AAAA 1-0 70.73 55.70 68
25 [2] Cedar Grove 5 - AAA 1-0 70.64 61.76 52
26 [5] Dalton 6 - AAAAAA 0-0 70.54    
27 [6] Coffee 1 - AAAAAA 1-0 70.23 53.87 72
28 [4] Kell 7 - AAAAA 0-1 70.20 79.94 8
29 [7] Harrison 6 - AAAAAA 1-0 70.01 51.33 79
30 [5] Carrollton 7 - AAAAA 1-0 69.88 51.43 78
31 [13] Walton 4 - AAAAAAA 1-0 69.70 65.42 38
32 [4] Blessed Trinity 7 - AAAA 1-0 69.52 58.48 60
33 [14] Camden County 1 - AAAAAAA 1-0 69.38    
34 [6] Ware County 2 - AAAAA 0-0 69.37    
35 [7] Jones County 4 - AAAAA 1-0 69.28 62.95 50
36 [8] Allatoona 6 - AAAAAA 0-1 68.75 87.37 3
37 [5] Thomson 3 - AAAA 1-0 68.02 33.98 152
38 [15] Tift County 1 - AAAAAAA 1-0 67.84 33.81 154
39 [9] Glynn Academy 2 - AAAAAA 0-1 67.59 81.27 7
40 [16] Etowah 4 - AAAAAAA 1-0 67.42 25.09 188
41 [10] Lovejoy 4 - AAAAAA 1-0 67.04 58.82 58
42 [17] Brookwood 7 - AAAAAAA 0-1 66.63 78.04 10
43 [18] Peachtree Ridge 6 - AAAAAAA 0-1 66.39 75.48 14
44 [19] West Forsyth 5 - AAAAAAA 1-0 66.33 57.58 64
45 [11] Northgate 5 - AAAAAA 1-0 66.04 45.77 101
46 [12] Northside (Warner Robins) 1 - AAAAAA 0-1 65.91 63.96 47
47 [20] North Gwinnett 6 - AAAAAAA 0-1 65.42 69.70 25
48 [1] Eagle's Landing Christian 5 - A 1-0 65.23 45.87 99
49 [21] North Paulding 3 - AAAAAAA 1-0 64.99 44.58 109
50 [13] Hughes 5 - AAAAAA 1-0 64.85 40.72 122
51 [22] Newton 8 - AAAAAAA 1-0 64.76 48.33 86
52 [23] Milton 5 - AAAAAAA 1-0 64.28 51.66 77
53 [24] Lassiter 4 - AAAAAAA 1-0 64.28 46.26 94
54 [25] Central Gwinnett 7 - AAAAAAA 1-0 64.15 60.31 54
55 [26] Hillgrove 3 - AAAAAAA 0-1 64.02 84.67 6
56 [14] Alexander 5 - AAAAAA 0-0 64.01    
57 [8] Warner Robins 1 - AAAAA 1-0 63.96 65.91 37
58 [6] Jefferson 8 - AAAA 1-0 63.87 24.80 189
59 [27] Collins Hill 6 - AAAAAAA 1-0 63.69 49.25 84
60 [15] Dacula 8 - AAAAAA 0-0 63.20    
61 [16] Houston County 1 - AAAAAA 0-1 62.95 69.28 26
62 [7] Mary Persons 2 - AAAA 0-1 61.88 73.29 16
63 [17] Stephenson 4 - AAAAAA 0-1 61.76 70.64 18
64 [8] Marist 7 - AAAA 0-0 61.32    
65 [3] Calhoun 6 - AAA 1-0 60.88 35.61 144
66 [28] South Gwinnett 8 - AAAAAAA 0-1 60.51 64.35 44
67 [29] Cherokee 4 - AAAAAAA 0-1 60.47 77.49 11
68 [4] Peach County 4 - AAA 0-0 60.14    
69 [30] Marietta 3 - AAAAAAA 1-0 60.01 49.80 82
70 [31] Lambert 5 - AAAAAAA 0-0 59.59    
71 [9] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 - AAAAA 1-0 59.03 28.62 175
72 [10] Griffin 3 - AAAAA 0-0 58.68    
73 [5] Westminster (Atlanta) 5 - AAA 0-1 58.68 69.72 24
74 [32] East Coweta 2 - AAAAAAA 0-1 58.63 66.84 32
75 [33] Mountain View 6 - AAAAAAA 1-0 58.58 15.31 218
76 [11] Thomas County Central 1 - AAAAA 1-0 58.58 45.88 98
77 [2] Callaway 5 - AA 1-0 58.34 40.88 121
78 [12] Bainbridge 1 - AAAAA 0-0 57.66    
79 [3] Fitzgerald 1 - AA 0-1 57.41 53.39 73
80 [34] Woodstock 4 - AAAAAAA 0-1 57.38 66.14 36
81 [1] Macon County 4 - A 0-0 56.84    
82 [6] Lovett 5 - AAA 0-1 56.50 72.17 17
83 [18] Lanier 8 - AAAAAA 1-0 56.35 38.81 129
84 [13] Starr's Mill 3 - AAAAA 0-0 56.26    
85 [19] Gainesville 8 - AAAAAA 1-0 56.19 38.61 130
86 [9] Burke County 3 - AAAA 1-0 55.53 32.64 161
87 [20] Creekside 5 - AAAAAA 0-1 55.50 70.54 19
88 [4] Brooks County 1 - AA 1-0 55.08 39.55 125
89 [2] Prince Avenue Christian 8 - A 1-0 54.79 38.50 131
90 [10] Spalding 2 - AAAA 0-0 54.50    
91 [5] Rabun County 8 - AA 0-0 54.44    
92 [21] Effingham County 2 - AAAAAA 0-1 53.87 70.23 20
93 [22] Creekview 6 - AAAAAA 0-0 53.86    
94 [6] Hapeville Charter 6 - AA 1-0 53.59 57.61 63
95 [23] Douglas County 5 - AAAAAA 0-0 53.08    
96 [7] Pace Academy 5 - AAA 0-0 53.05    
97 [8] Liberty County 2 - AAA 0-0 52.82    
98 [24] Centennial 7 - AAAAAA 0-0 52.63    
99 [14] Carver (Atlanta) 6 - AAAAA 1-0 52.57 33.78 155
100 [11] St. Pius X 8 - AAAA 0-0 52.50    
101 [7] Thomasville 1 - AA 1-0 52.20 47.80 88
102 [9] Crisp County 1 - AAA 1-0 51.60 33.16 160
103 [25] Alpharetta 7 - AAAAAA 0-1 51.47 64.08 45
104 [35] Newnan 2 - AAAAAAA 0-1 51.43 69.88 22
105 [15] East Paulding 7 - AAAAA 0-1 51.13 69.81 23
106 [26] Sequoyah 6 - AAAAAA 1-0 51.10 42.70 115
107 [3] Wesleyan 5 - A 1-0 51.09 19.72 201
108 [16] Loganville 8 - AAAAA 0-0 50.94    
109 [36] Wheeler 2 - AAAAAAA 0-1 49.99 60.21 56
110 [17] Dutchtown 4 - AAAAA 0-0 49.88    
111 [12] West Laurens 2 - AAAA 0-0 49.68    
112 [18] Locust Grove 4 - AAAAA 0-0 49.58    
113 [37] Shiloh 8 - AAAAAAA 0-1 49.45 63.89 48
114 [2] Clinch County 2 - A 1-0 49.36 13.19 225
115 [27] Cambridge 7 - AAAAAA 0-0 49.21    
116 [13] Eastside 4 - AAAA 1-0 49.06 35.56 145
117 [28] Brunswick 2 - AAAAAA 0-0 48.69    
118 [19] Whitewater 3 - AAAAA 0-0 48.15    
119 [29] Drew 4 - AAAAAA 0-1 48.13 64.56 42
120 [30] South Paulding 5 - AAAAAA 0-0 48.07    
121 [8] Jefferson County 4 - AA 1-0 48.05 34.34 150
122 [4] Mount Paran Christian 6 - A 1-0 47.81 20.64 199
123 [9] Screven County 4 - AA 1-0 47.70    
124 [14] Cairo 1 - AAAA 0-1 47.61 52.00 75
125 [3] Irwin County 2 - A 1-0 47.50 23.46 191
126 [15] Upson-Lee 2 - AAAA 0-0 47.37    
127 [16] Ridgeland 6 - AAAA 1-0 47.16 30.93 167
128 [5] Tattnall Square 7 - A 0-0 47.01    
129 [31] Sprayberry 6 - AAAAAA 0-0 47.00    
130 [17] Stephens County 8 - AAAA 0-0 47.00    
131 [32] Jonesboro 4 - AAAAAA 1-0 47.00 28.52 177
132 [18] Carver (Columbus) 1 - AAAA 0-1 46.78 45.95 97
133 [33] Johns Creek 7 - AAAAAA 0-1 46.46 64.47 43
134 [10] Westside (Macon) 4 - AAA 1-0 46.22 26.93 182
135 [20] Harris County 1 - AAAAA 1-0 46.15 46.98 93
136 [11] Worth County 1 - AAA 0-1 46.08 58.78 59
137 [21] Veterans 1 - AAAAA 0-1 45.97 66.24 34
138 [22] Arabia Mountain 5 - AAAAA 1-0 45.76 -1.17 248
139 [23] Eagle's Landing 4 - AAAAA 0-1 45.67 65.03 40
140 [10] Dodge County 3 - AA 1-0 45.61 41.54 119
141 [11] Pepperell 7 - AA 0-0 45.34    
142 [34] Winder-Barrow 8 - AAAAAA 1-0 45.25 41.42 120
143 [19] Northwest Whitfield 6 - AAAA 1-0 45.21 28.68 174
144 [12] Pierce County 2 - AAA 0-0 45.01    
145 [20] Troup 5 - AAAA 1-0 44.98 31.06 165
146 [21] Oconee County 8 - AAAA 0-0 44.94    
147 [24] Ola 4 - AAAAA 1-0 44.89 27.76 179
148 [25] Southwest DeKalb 5 - AAAAA 1-0 44.87 24.42 190
149 [4] Emanuel County Institute 3 - A 1-0 44.82 22.54 195
150 [26] Paulding County 7 - AAAAA 0-1 44.77 65.19 39
151 [27] Villa Rica 7 - AAAAA 1-0 44.66 27.64 180
152 [6] Fellowship Christian 6 - A 1-0 44.48 16.05 215
153 [7] Calvary Day 3 - A 1-0 44.23 4.49 246
154 [38] Kennesaw Mountain 3 - AAAAAAA 1-0 43.97 38.16 136
155 [22] Pickens 6 - AAAA 1-0 43.94 33.73 156
156 [23] Cedartown 5 - AAAA 1-0 43.54 33.36 158
157 [28] Riverwood 6 - AAAAA 0-0 43.49    
158 [8] Darlington 6 - A 0-0 42.67    
159 [35] Richmond Hill 2 - AAAAAA 0-0 42.64    
160 [39] North Forsyth 5 - AAAAAAA 0-1 42.50 50.90 80
161 [5] Manchester 4 - A 1-0 42.19 -2.29 249
162 [36] Heritage (Conyers) 3 - AAAAAA 1-0 41.84 29.05 173
163 [12] Vidalia 2 - AA 0-1 41.74 45.80 100
164 [6] Commerce 8 - A 0-0 41.66    
165 [7] McIntosh County Academy 3 - A 1-0 41.62 31.02 166
166 [24] Chapel Hill 5 - AAAA 0-0 41.56    
167 [9] Stratford Academy 7 - A 0-0 41.32    
168 [29] Clarke Central 8 - AAAAA 0-1 41.22 45.05 103
169 [30] Cass 7 - AAAAA 0-0 41.15    
170 [31] Wayne County 2 - AAAAA 0-0 41.10    
171 [25] LaGrange 5 - AAAA 0-1 40.88 58.34 62
172 [37] Mundy's Mill 4 - AAAAAA 0-1 40.52 64.65 41
173 [13] Washington County 3 - AA 0-0 40.51    
174 [13] Dawson County 7 - AAA 0-0 40.19    
175 [14] Model 7 - AA 0-0 39.97    
176 [26] Westover 1 - AAAA 1-0 39.90 27.77 178
177 [38] South Cobb 6 - AAAAAA 1-0 39.84 36.98 139
178 [14] Cook 1 - AAA 0-1 39.75 55.28 70
179 [32] Grady 6 - AAAAA 0-1 39.72 36.50 140
180 [15] Elbert County 8 - AA 1-0 39.25 25.81 185
181 [15] Jenkins 3 - AAA 1-0 39.12 14.84 219
182 [39] Northview 7 - AAAAAA 0-1 39.01 56.55 65
183 [10] Aquinas 7 - A 0-1 38.70 54.99 71
184 [16] Jackson 4 - AAA 0-1 38.61 36.14 142
185 [16] B.E.S.T. Academy 6 - AA 1-0 38.55 34.49 149
186 [27] West Hall 7 - AAAA 0-1 38.42 55.99 67
187 [28] Northside (Columbus) 1 - AAAA 1-0 38.40 16.13 214
188 [40] Evans 3 - AAAAAA 0-0 38.38    
189 [17] Heard County 5 - AA 1-0 38.36 14.77 220
190 [33] Hiram 7 - AAAAA 0-1 38.36 44.17 112
191 [8] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 - A 0-0 38.06    
192 [34] Fayette County 3 - AAAAA 0-0 37.95    
193 [18] Dublin 3 - AA 1-0 37.79 26.40 184
194 [19] Lamar County 5 - AA 0-0 37.59    
195 [17] Monroe 1 - AAA 0-0 37.58    
196 [29] Americus-Sumter 1 - AAAA 0-0 37.49    
197 [11] Mount Pisgah Christian 6 - A 1-0 37.35 25.68 186
198 [35] Flowery Branch 8 - AAAAA 0-0 37.20    
199 [40] Pebblebrook 2 - AAAAAAA 0-1 36.78 39.64 124
200 [41] New Manchester 5 - AAAAAA 0-0 36.77    
201 [20] Chattooga 7 - AA 0-0 36.76    
202 [12] Pinecrest Academy 6 - A 0-0 36.64    
203 [13] Athens Academy 8 - A 1-0 36.49 17.56 211
204 [18] Appling County 2 - AAA 0-0 36.46    
205 [19] Sonoraville 6 - AAA 0-0 36.31    
206 [42] North Atlanta 7 - AAAAAA 1-0 36.30 39.52 126
207 [9] Turner County 2 - A 1-0 36.06 23.10 193
208 [21] Spencer 5 - AA 0-0 36.01    
209 [22] Swainsboro 2 - AA 1-0 35.95 38.41 132
210 [10] Lincoln County 7 - A 0-0 35.64    
211 [23] Douglass 6 - AA 0-1 35.41 60.68 53
212 [36] Columbia 5 - AAAAA 1-0 35.41 29.57 172
213 [30] Luella 4 - AAAA 0-1 35.36 48.86 85
214 [43] Pope 7 - AAAAAA 0-0 35.34    
215 [44] Lakeside (Evans) 3 - AAAAAA 0-1 34.72    
216 [20] Morgan County 8 - AAA 0-0 34.65    
217 [41] Forsyth Central 5 - AAAAAAA 0-0 34.59    
218 [14] Savannah Christian 3 - A 0-1 34.54 48.24 87
219 [37] McIntosh 3 - AAAAA 1-0 34.49 19.27 204
220 [42] Rockdale County 8 - AAAAAAA 1-0 34.34 -2.67 250
221 [15] Landmark Christian 5 - A 0-1 34.29 38.36 134
222 [24] Laney 4 - AA 0-1 34.18 68.22 28
223 [45] Habersham Central 8 - AAAAAA 1-0 33.94 21.49 197
224 [46] Chattahoochee 7 - AAAAAA 0-1 33.93 44.14 113
225 [38] South Effingham 2 - AAAAA 0-1 33.81 67.84 29
226 [11] Taylor County 4 - A 1-0 33.71 15.74 217
227 [39] Lithonia 5 - AAAAA 0-1 33.58 52.37 74
228 [31] North Clayton 4 - AAAA 1-0 33.52 30.17 170
229 [32] Perry 2 - AAAA 0-0 33.37    
230 [12] Dooly County 4 - A 0-1 33.36 51.80 76
231 [13] Charlton County 2 - A 0-0 33.24    
232 [25] Rockmart 7 - AA 0-1 33.16 43.35 114
233 [33] Heritage (Ringgold) 6 - AAAA 1-0 33.09 -11.95 255
234 [14] Bowdon 6 - A 0-0 33.07    
235 [21] Central (Macon) 4 - AAA 0-0 33.02    
236 [22] Union County 7 - AAA 0-0 32.62    
237 [34] Chestatee 7 - AAAA 1-0 32.58 27.24 181
238 [47] Grovetown 3 - AAAAAA 0-1 32.44 55.33 69
239 [35] Columbus 1 - AAAA 0-0 32.39    
240 [48] River Ridge 6 - AAAAAA 1-0 31.94 18.38 207
241 [36] Baldwin 3 - AAAA 1-0 31.72 11.56 227
242 [16] First Presbyterian 7 - A 0-0 31.41    
243 [23] Bremen 6 - AAA 0-0 31.41    
244 [15] Trion 6 - A 0-0 31.22    
245 [24] Brantley County 2 - AAA 0-1 31.21 41.82 117
246 [25] Adairsville 6 - AAA 0-1 31.13 47.36 90
247 [37] White County 7 - AAAA 1-0 30.89 18.22 209
248 [38] Hardaway 1 - AAAA 0-1 30.86 44.78 106
249 [16] Marion County 4 - A 1-0 30.64 6.91 238
250 [17] Washington-Wilkes 7 - A 0-0 30.29    
251 [40] Riverdale 3 - AAAAA 0-1 30.17 33.52 157
252 [26] Southeast Bulloch 3 - AAA 0-0 30.12    
253 [17] Athens Christian 8 - A 0-0 30.04    
254 [26] Early County 1 - AA 0-0 30.01    
255 [41] Banneker 6 - AAAAA 0-0 29.99    
256 [49] Bradwell Institute 2 - AAAAAA 0-0 29.98    
257 [42] Miller Grove 5 - AAAAA 1-0 29.97 -17.97 259
258 [50] M.L. King 4 - AAAAAA 0-1 29.57 35.41 146
259 [18] Twiggs County 7 - A 0-0 29.17    
260 [19] Greene County 7 - A 0-0 29.13    
261 [27] Southwest 3 - AA 0-0 28.99    
262 [39] Salem 4 - AAAA 0-1 28.86 41.64 118
263 [20] Telfair County 2 - A 0-0 28.71    
264 [51] Dunwoody 7 - AAAAAA 1-0 28.53 23.45 192
265 [52] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 - AAAAAA 0-1 28.52 47.00 92
266 [27] Ringgold 6 - AAA 0-1 28.48 45.02 104
267 [43] Union Grove 4 - AAAAA 0-1 28.42 58.83 57
268 [44] Cedar Shoals 8 - AAAAA 0-0 28.19    
269 [40] Shaw 1 - AAAA 0-0 28.16    
270 [45] Maynard Jackson 6 - AAAAA 0-0 28.03    
271 [21] Pelham 1 - A 0-1 27.97 40.10 123
272 [28] Pike County 4 - AAA 0-1 27.96 45.09 102
273 [46] Walnut Grove 8 - AAAAA 0-0 27.96    
274 [18] George Walton Academy 8 - A 0-0 27.72    
275 [41] Central (Carrollton) 5 - AAAA 0-1 27.44 44.46 110
276 [29] North Hall 7 - AAA 0-1 27.04 32.38 162
277 [30] North Murray 6 - AAA 1-0 26.75 6.86 239
278 [42] Howard 2 - AAAA 0-1 26.74 46.03 95
279 [43] Madison County 8 - AAAA 0-0 26.53    
280 [31] Tattnall County 2 - AAA 0-1 26.21 37.59 137
281 [47] North Springs 6 - AAAAA 0-0 26.07    
282 [53] Tri-Cities 5 - AAAAAA 0-0 26.05    
283 [48] Statesboro 2 - AAAAA 0-0 25.81    
284 [32] Hart County 8 - AAA 0-1 25.61 39.06 128
285 [19] Holy Innocents 5 - A 0-1 25.49 37.15 138
286 [28] Washington 6 - AA 0-0 25.48    
287 [33] Savannah 3 - AAA 0-0 25.48    
288 [34] Jackson County 8 - AAA 1-0 25.47 18.53 206
289 [43] Campbell 2 - AAAAAAA 0-1 24.89 67.22 31
290 [22] Mitchell County 1 - A 0-0 24.64    
291 [44] North Oconee 8 - AAAA 0-0 24.62    
292 [44] Discovery 6 - AAAAAAA 0-1 24.60 63.67 49
293 [35] Redan 5 - AAA 0-1 24.42 44.87 105
294 [45] Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 - AAAAAAA 0-1 23.45 28.53 176
295 [29] Berrien 1 - AA 0-1 23.26 47.31 91
296 [30] Toombs County 2 - AA 1-0 22.97 10.11 229
297 [36] Dougherty 1 - AAA 0-1 22.91 35.86 143
298 [54] Greenbrier 3 - AAAAAA 0-0 22.59    
299 [31] Metter 2 - AA 0-1 22.34 44.62 108
300 [55] Alcovy 3 - AAAAAA 1-0 22.26 14.49 222
301 [32] Bacon County 2 - AA 0-0 21.87    
302 [37] East Hall 7 - AAA 0-1 21.68 34.14 151
303 [33] Bryan County 2 - AA 0-0 21.10    
304 [49] Chamblee 5 - AAAAA 1-0 20.99 16.98 212
305 [38] Lumpkin County 7 - AAA 0-0 20.98    
306 [23] Miller County 1 - A 0-0 20.94    
307 [39] Towers 5 - AAA 1-0 20.71 6.17 241
308 [20] Our Lady of Mercy 5 - A 0-1 20.44 47.62 89
309 [24] Johnson County 3 - A 0-0 20.33    
310 [34] KIPP Atlanta Collegiate 6 - AA 0-0 20.14    
311 [35] Therrell 6 - AA 0-1 19.53 50.90 81
312 [50] Decatur 6 - AAAAA 0-1 19.46 34.69 147
313 [56] Apalachee 8 - AAAAAA 0-0 19.42    
314 [36] Coosa 7 - AA 0-0 19.36    
315 [21] Hebron Christian Academy 8 - A 1-0 19.17 4.98 243
316 [45] Southeast Whitfield 6 - AAAA 1-0 19.17 -17.85 258
317 [37] Northeast 3 - AA 0-0 18.92    
318 [38] Dade County 7 - AA 1-0 18.75 14.32 223
319 [51] Woodland (Cartersville) 7 - AAAAA 0-1 18.58 32.14 163
320 [25] Wilkinson County 7 - A 0-0 18.48    
321 [39] Banks County 8 - AA 0-1 18.34 25.27 187
322 [40] Fannin County 7 - AAA 1-0 18.25 4.56 245
323 [26] Seminole County 1 - A 0-0 18.09    
324 [41] Rutland 4 - AAA 0-0 18.09    
325 [40] Jordan 5 - AA 1-0 18.06 14.74 221
326 [42] Monroe Area 8 - AAA 0-0 18.04    
327 [43] Franklin County 8 - AAA 0-1 18.02 30.69 168
328 [22] Savannah Country Day 3 - A 0-0 17.51    
329 [23] Walker 6 - A 0-1 17.37 36.29 141
330 [46] Richmond Academy 3 - AAAA 0-0 17.34    
331 [52] Lithia Springs 6 - AAAAA 0-0 17.00    
332 [47] Druid Hills 4 - AAAA 0-1 16.98 20.99 198
333 [27] Hawkinsville 4 - A 0-0 16.81    
334 [48] Henry County 4 - AAAA 0-0 16.29    
335 [28] Atkinson County 2 - A 0-1 16.25 44.67 107
336 [44] Kendrick 4 - AAA 0-1 16.13 38.40 133
337 [29] Randolph-Clay 1 - A 0-0 16.11    
338 [30] Terrell County 1 - A 0-1 15.94 33.91 153
339 [53] Morrow 3 - AAAAA 1-0 15.94 9.78 231
340 [41] Putnam County 8 - AA 1-0 15.84 6.52 240
341 [42] Jeff Davis 2 - AA 0-0 15.56    
342 [45] Long County 2 - AAA 0-0 15.45    
343 [57] Osborne 6 - AAAAAA† 0-1 15.11 58.39 61
344 [24] Brookstone 4 - A 0-1 14.94 18.26 208
345 [54] New Hampstead 2 - AAAAA 0-1 14.84 39.12 127
346 [43] South Atlanta 6 - AA 0-1 14.57 38.17 135
347 [46] Duluth 6 - AAAAAAA 0-1 14.30 22.06 196
348 [31] Gordon Lee 6 - A 0-1 14.12 18.55 205
349 [44] Monticello 8 - AA 0-0 13.52    
350 [45] Bleckley County 3 - AA 0-1 13.38 49.56 83
351 [46] Butler 4 - AA 1-0 13.13 9.74 233
352 [25] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 - A 0-0 12.75    
353 [32] Crawford County 4 - A 0-0 12.38    
354 [46] Murray County 6 - AAA 1-0 11.95 -19.61 260
355 [33] Hancock Central 7 - A 0-1 11.76 31.92 164
356 [47] McNair 5 - AAA 0-0 11.45    
357 [47] Temple 5 - AA 0-0 11.16    
358 [34] Jenkins County 3 - A 1-0 10.71 -12.53 256
359 [48] East Laurens 3 - AA 0-1 10.11 22.97 194
360 [55] Hampton 4 - AAAAA 0-1 9.97 16.13 213
361 [49] Cross Creek 3 - AAAA 0-1 9.94 13.33 224
362 [26] Mount de Sales 7 - A 1-0 9.74 -9.84 252
363 [35] Wheeler County 3 - A 1-0 9.57 -10.86 253
364 [50] LaFayette 6 - AAAA 1-0 8.95 -1.16 247
365 [48] Haralson County 6 - AAA 0-0 8.67    
366 [36] Treutlen 3 - A 0-1 8.40 7.27 237
367 [47] Meadowcreek 7 - AAAAAAA 0-0 8.22    
368 [49] Josey 4 - AA 0-0 8.10    
369 [37] Wilcox County 2 - A 0-0 8.02    
370 [49] Beach 3 - AAA 0-0 7.69    
371 [27] King's Ridge Christian 6 - A 1-0 7.65 -22.22 261
372 [1] Georgia Military College 7 - A† 1-0 7.46 8.60 235
373 [50] Harlem 4 - AA 0-0 7.31    
374 [38] Chattahoochee County 1 - A 0-0 7.06    
375 [39] Warren County 7 - A 0-1 6.72 16.04 216
376 [40] Schley County 4 - A 0-1 6.72 30.44 169
377 [28] Christian Heritage 6 - A 0-1 6.66 26.55 183
378 [41] Montgomery County 3 - A 0-0 6.26    
379 [29] Whitefield Academy 6 - A 0-0 6.04    
380 [58] Forest Park 4 - AAAAAA† 0-1 5.97 20.51 200
381 [30] Lakeview Academy 8 - A 0-0 5.79    
382 [50] East Jackson 8 - AAA 0-1 5.18 19.37 202
383 [31] Strong Rock Christian 5 - A 1-0 5.15 -11.93 254
384 [51] Social Circle 8 - AA 1-0 4.98 -3.96 251
385 [42] Portal 3 - A 0-0 4.64    
386 [51] Islands 3 - AAA 0-1 4.49 44.23 111
387 [51] Gilmer 6 - AAAA 0-1 4.36 18.05 210
388 [43] Towns County 8 - A 1-0 4.33    
389 [32] Riverside Military Academy 8 - A 0-0 3.22    
390 [52] Windsor Forest 3 - AAA 0-0 2.97    
391 [52] Glenn Hills 4 - AA 0-0 2.45    
392 [44] Lanier County 2 - A 0-0 1.87    
393 [33] St. Francis 6 - A 0-0 0.30    
394 [53] Stone Mountain 5 - AAA 0-1 -0.98 45.96 96
395 [53] Armuchee 7 - AA 0-1 -1.36 8.75 234
396 [48] Berkmar 7 - AAAAAAA 0-1 -2.47 34.54 148
397 [45] Greenville 4 - A 0-1 -2.49 41.99 116
398 [54] Groves 3 - AAA 0-0 -3.37    
399 [46] Claxton 3 - A 0-0 -3.66    
400 [56] Johnson (Gainesville) 8 - AAAAA 0-1 -3.77 5.17 242
401 [54] Westside (Augusta) 4 - AA 0-0 -4.89    
402 [47] Calhoun County 1 - A 0-0 -5.62    
403 [55] Johnson (Savannah) 3 - AAA 0-0 -6.27    
404 [34] Pacelli 4 - A 0-1 -9.64 9.93 230
405 [35] North Cobb Christian 6 - A 0-0 -9.74    
406 [55] Oglethorpe County 8 - AA 0-0 -10.24    
407 [48] Central (Talbotton) 4 - A 0-1 -10.66 9.77 232
408 [56] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 - AAA 0-1 -11.75 33.29 159
409 [36] Providence Christian 8 - A 0-1 -12.13 4.95 244
410 [52] Hephzibah 3 - AAAA 0-1 -12.33 10.91 228
411 [49] Baconton Charter 1 - A 1-0 -16.69 -42.28 262
412 [57] Coahulla Creek 6 - AAA 0-1 -17.65 19.37 203
413 [57] Clarkston 5 - AAAAA† 0-1 -17.97 29.97 171
414 [56] Gordon Central 7 - AA 0-1 -19.41 12.15 226
415 [50] Stewart County 1 - A 0-0 -22.18    
416 [2] Glascock County 7 - A† 0-1 -22.42 7.45 236
417 [58] Cross Keys 5 - AAAAA† 0-0 -36.99    
418 [3] Pataula Charter 1 - A† 0-1 -42.47 -16.89 257
†-Plays non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the Competitive Rating is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 - AAAAAAA 89.84 78.86
2 8 - AAAAAAA 87.72 63.38
3 6 - AAAAAAA 81.39 58.47
4 3 - AAAAAAA 80.82 66.03
5 1 - AAAAAA 78.92 69.72
6 4 - AAAAAAA 77.27 66.04
7 7 - AAAAAAA 76.19 52.03
8 5 - AAAA 75.50 47.91
9 5 - AAAAAA 72.87 55.34
10 5 - AAAAAAA 71.92 57.79
11 4 - AAAAAA 71.27 49.52
12 6 - AAAAAA 71.26 54.26
13 7 - AAAAA 71.19 49.95
14 4 - AAAAA 69.55 49.12
15 8 - AAAAA 68.67 36.99
16 2 - AAAAAAA 65.22 49.20
17 1 - AAAAA 64.62 54.51
18 5 - AAA 64.36 37.67
19 7 - AAAA 63.48 45.24
20 2 - AA 63.28 28.89
21 2 - AAAAAA 61.97 48.50
22 8 - AAAAAA 61.65 46.97
23 2 - AAAA 59.72 46.03
24 4 - AAAA 59.40 33.94
25 8 - AAAA 58.95 43.54
26 3 - AAAA 58.33 26.90
27 1 - AA 57.74 44.59
28 2 - AAAAA 57.34 34.87
29 3 - AAAAA 57.15 40.53
30 7 - AAA 56.99 30.31
31 7 - AAAAAA 56.25 41.42
32 5 - A 54.92 28.65
33 4 - AAA 52.44 33.66
34 1 - AAAA 50.87 37.66
35 1 - AAA 50.86 39.96
36 5 - AA 50.40 33.29
37 6 - A 49.27 24.53
  6-Div B - A 45.99 24.96
  6-Div A - A 41.33 24.09
38 2 - AAA 49.06 34.53
39 6 - AAAAA 48.53 31.62
40 6 - AAA 48.27 22.15
  6-South - AAA 50.95 33.21
  6-North - AAA 26.15 8.69
41 6 - AAAA 47.61 29.80
42 2 - A 47.46 28.24
43 4 - A 47.05 18.35
  4-Div B - A 46.32 25.29
  4-Div A - A 33.74 9.05
44 8 - A 46.59 21.18
45 7 - A 46.52 27.89
  7-Div A - A 44.25 29.75
  7-Div B - A 38.00 26.08
46 6 - AA 46.35 28.80
47 5 - AAAAA 45.64 35.19
48 3 - A 44.43 18.62
  3-Div A - A 42.30 24.08
  3-Div B - A 33.73 14.82
49 4 - AA 44.33 17.19
50 3 - AA 44.12 28.01
51 8 - AA 43.65 17.83
52 7 - AA 43.62 24.56
53 3 - AAAAAA 43.50 32.12
54 8 - AAA 33.46 21.34
55 3 - AAA 33.12 11.29
56 1 - A 28.76 10.66

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
08/18 Grady North Atlanta 7 - 21 3.21 58.0% 0.440
08/18 Fitzgerald Hapeville Charter 22 - 25 4.02 59.9% 0.445
08/18 Roswell South Forsyth 14 - 17 3.88 59.6% 0.447
08/18 Northside (Warner Robins) Warner Robins 17 - 28 1.95 54.9% 0.467
08/18 Jackson Swainsboro 21 - 23 2.47 56.1% 0.469
08/18 Calhoun Douglass 17 - 14 25.27 92.6% 0.481
08/18 Treutlen Georgia Military College 20 - 21 1.13 52.8% 0.487
08/18 Carver (Columbus) Harris County 45 - 46 0.83 52.1% 0.491
08/18 South Cobb Pebblebrook 10 - 7 2.85 57.1% 0.530
08/18 Dodge County Vidalia 14 - 13 4.07 60.0% 0.535
08/18 Dade County Gordon Lee 20 - 19 4.43 60.9% 0.537
08/18 Central Gwinnett South Gwinnett 28 - 24 3.83 59.5% 0.541
08/19 Walton North Gwinnett 31 - 28 4.28 60.5% 0.542
08/18 Turner County Dougherty 29 - 28 12.96 78.5% 0.543
08/18 Morrow Hampton 27 - 26 6.16 64.9% 0.545

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
87.97 10/27 Colquitt County Lowndes - 7.78 68.5%
87.46 09/01 Grayson McEachern - 14.38 80.8%
87.29 08/19 Mill Creek McEachern 23 - 19 8.20 69.4%
82.65 09/01 Colquitt County Tucker - 13.10 78.8%
81.41 08/19 Colquitt County Norcross 20 - 17 14.36 80.8%
80.64 09/08 Mill Creek Archer - 14.79 81.4%
80.02 09/08 Colquitt County Roswell - 15.56 82.6%
79.70 10/13 Grayson Archer - 21.56 89.6%
79.61 10/06 McEachern North Cobb - 7.72 68.4%
78.86 08/18 Lowndes Valdosta 45 - 0 9.26 71.6%
78.60 09/22 Colquitt County Valdosta - 16.85 84.4%
78.43 09/15 Norcross Archer - 1.03 52.6%
78.00 09/01 Lowndes Parkview - 10.17 73.4%
77.74 09/22 Archer Roswell - 0.76 51.9%
76.79 09/29 Norcross Parkview - 3.39 58.4%

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

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