Sports

Maxwell Week 9 Summary: 4-AAAAAAA closes in on at-large bid

By Loren Maxwell
Oct 17, 2016

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 421 teams throughout the 2016 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:

- Although there are three games left to play, the computer says top rated Roswell is practically a shoo-in for the Region 4-AAAAAAA championship.  However the race for the other playoff spots is fairly wide open, plus the region has nearly a 60% chance to capture the at-large bid to place a total of five of its six teams in the playoffs.  In fact, every team in the region, including Walton, Lassiter, and Etowah who are all 0-2 in region play, has better than a 30% chance of making it either through a traditional seed or the at-large bid.

Here are all the teams with a greater than 1% chance of earning the at-large bid:

4 - AAAAAAA    Walton    21.4%

4 - AAAAAAA    Lassiter    19.2%

4 - AAAAAAA    Etowah    15.3%

1 - AAAAAAA    Tift County    11.9%

8 - AAAAAAA    South Gwinnett    7.7%

3 - AAAAAAA    North Paulding    7.4%

5 - AAAAAAA    North Forsyth    4.3%

8 - AAAAAAA    Newton    3.1%

4 - AAAAAAA    Cherokee    1.9%

4 - AAAAAAA    Woodstock    1.8%

5 - AAAAAAA    Milton    1.4%

5 - AAAAAAA    South Forsyth    1.2%

And each region's chances:

4 - AAAAAAA    59.6%

1 - AAAAAAA    13.0%

8 - AAAAAAA    10.8%

3 - AAAAAAA    7.6%

5 - AAAAAAA    7.2%

2 - AAAAAAA    0.9%

6 - AAAAAAA    0.5%

7 - AAAAAAA    0.4%

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 5.24%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 1,342 of 1,455 total games including 7 tie(s) (92.47%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.47 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.

Home Advantage: 1.07

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Roswell 7-0 97.96 1 Valdosta 6-1 84.54
2 Grayson 6-1 94.03 2 Northside (Warner Robins) 7-1 82.27
3 Mill Creek 8-0 91.92 3 Harrison 7-0 79.23
4 Norcross 7-0 86.03 4 Mays 6-1 73.84
5 Colquitt County 4-4 83.80 5 Lee County 6-1 73.23
6 McEachern 6-1 82.84 6 Tucker 6-1 71.54
7 Lowndes 7-1 79.49 7 Alexander 7-0 71.44
8 North Cobb 5-2 73.35 8 Glynn Academy 6-1 69.01
9 Archer 2-5 72.69 9 Dalton 7-0 67.80
10 Parkview 5-2 72.60 10 Hughes 6-2 65.56
11 North Gwinnett 4-3 70.57 11 Coffee 5-2 64.89
12 Lassiter 5-2 68.55 12 Northgate 6-1 64.23
13 Brookwood 5-2 68.54 13 Houston County 6-2 63.83
14 Tift County 5-3 67.17 14 Allatoona 3-4 62.11
15 South Gwinnett 5-2 66.33 15 Lanier 5-2 60.02
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 6-1 80.78 1 Cartersville 8-0 82.73
2 Stockbridge 7-0 75.21 2 Woodward Academy 7-1 73.04
3 Kell 6-1 70.45 3 Thomson 7-0 72.45
4 Rome 5-2 69.36 4 Sandy Creek 4-3 60.88
5 Woodland (Stockbridge) 6-2 67.98 5 Jefferson 6-1 56.96
6 Ware County 3-3 67.38 6 Marist 5-2 56.96
7 Grady 6-1 66.76 7 Mary Persons 5-2 56.01
8 Carrollton 6-1 61.17 8 Blessed Trinity 6-2 55.03
9 Jones County 5-2 58.17 9 Cairo 6-1 54.52
10 Griffin 7-1 55.83 10 Stephens County 6-1 54.02
11 Thomas County Central 5-3 54.67 11 Troup 6-1 53.34
12 Loganville 6-1 54.64 12 Ridgeland 6-0 53.30
13 Arabia Mountain 6-1 53.11 13 Cedartown 5-2 52.64
14 Bainbridge 2-4 52.34 14 Eastside 5-2-1 51.91
15 Carver (Atlanta) 5-2 50.98 15 Burke County 6-1 51.25
AAA AA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Greater Atlanta Christian 7-1 71.93 1 Benedictine 7-0 70.85
2 Westminster (Atlanta) 5-2 64.45 2 Fitzgerald 6-1 63.81
3 Cedar Grove 5-2 58.48 3 Callaway 7-0 60.38
4 Peach County 6-1 56.76 4 Rabun County 6-0 59.12
5 Crisp County 7-0 55.22 5 Brooks County 6-1 53.51
6 Calhoun 5-2 54.09 6 Jefferson County 8-0 50.41
7 Lovett 5-2 53.80 7 Pepperell 5-1 46.83
8 Pace Academy 4-3 52.97 8 Washington County 5-2 42.68
9 Liberty County 6-1 49.53 9 Vidalia 5-2 41.06
10 Jackson 6-2 46.82 10 Model 5-2 39.30
11 Dawson County 5-1 43.75 11 Thomasville 3-3 38.74
12 Pierce County 5-2 42.54 12 Hapeville Charter 4-3 37.56
13 Worth County 4-3 42.06 13 Lamar County 4-3 37.52
14 Sonoraville 6-2 41.37 14 Elbert County 5-1-1 37.17
15 Cook 4-4 39.50 15 Toombs County 5-2 36.74
A - Public A - Private
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Manchester 8-0 54.40 1 Eagle's Landing Christian 7-0 59.30
2 Macon County 5-2 53.75 2 Tattnall Square 7-0 53.02
3 Clinch County 6-1 51.41 3 Wesleyan 6-1 49.70
4 Mount Zion (Carroll) 7-0 50.37 4 Fellowship Christian 7-0 48.07
5 Twiggs County 5-2 46.98 5 Landmark Christian 7-0 45.75
6 Emanuel County Institute 7-0 41.90 6 Prince Avenue Christian 8-0 45.47
7 Irwin County 4-3 40.32 7 Darlington 6-2 45.44
8 McIntosh County Academy 4-1 38.71 8 Calvary Day 5-0 44.27
9 Bowdon 5-3 36.98 9 Mount Paran Christian 6-1 43.65
10 Lincoln County 5-1-1 36.59 10 Stratford Academy 5-2 40.86
11 Dooly County 4-3 35.79 11 Aquinas 5-2 35.58
12 Taylor County 6-1 33.32 12 Pinecrest Academy 4-3 33.65
13 Turner County 4-3 33.07 13 Athens Academy 7-0 31.55
14 Washington-Wilkes 2-5 29.68 14 First Presbyterian 5-2 31.39
15 Commerce 5-2 29.25 15 Savannah Christian 3-2 31.03

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Roswell 4 - AAAAAAA 7-0 97.96 67.01 6
2 [2] Grayson 8 - AAAAAAA 6-1 94.03 60.23 19
3 [3] Mill Creek 6 - AAAAAAA 8-0 91.92 58.57 26
4 [4] Norcross 7 - AAAAAAA 7-0 86.03 58.67 25
5 [1] Valdosta 1 - AAAAAA 6-1 84.54 68.62 3
6 [5] Colquitt County 1 - AAAAAAA 4-4 83.80 78.27 2
7 [6] McEachern 3 - AAAAAAA 6-1 82.84 61.43 16
8 [1] Cartersville 5 - AAAA 8-0 82.73 50.00 71
9 [2] Northside (Warner Robins) 1 - AAAAAA 7-1 82.27 55.36 40
10 [1] Buford 8 - AAAAA 6-1 80.78 37.08 166
11 [7] Lowndes 1 - AAAAAAA 7-1 79.49 63.21 15
12 [3] Harrison 6 - AAAAAA 7-0 79.23 49.67 72
13 [2] Stockbridge 4 - AAAAA 7-0 75.21 54.48 44
14 [4] Mays 5 - AAAAAA 6-1 73.84 55.13 41
15 [8] North Cobb 3 - AAAAAAA 5-2 73.35 64.16 11
16 [5] Lee County 1 - AAAAAA 6-1 73.23 54.44 45
17 [2] Woodward Academy 4 - AAAA 7-1 73.04 43.93 112
18 [9] Archer 8 - AAAAAAA 2-5 72.69 83.64 1
19 [10] Parkview 7 - AAAAAAA 5-2 72.60 58.12 29
20 [3] Thomson 3 - AAAA 7-0 72.45 31.26 228
21 [1] Greater Atlanta Christian 7 - AAA 7-1 71.93 33.75 204
22 [6] Tucker 4 - AAAAAA 6-1 71.54 44.65 106
23 [7] Alexander 5 - AAAAAA 7-0 71.44 48.19 81
24 [1] Benedictine 2 - AA 7-0 70.85 34.05 201
25 [11] North Gwinnett 6 - AAAAAAA 4-3 70.57 65.42 7
26 [3] Kell 7 - AAAAA 6-1 70.45 51.69 58
27 [4] Rome 7 - AAAAA 5-2 69.36 51.67 59
28 [8] Glynn Academy 2 - AAAAAA 6-1 69.01 50.85 64
29 [12] Lassiter 4 - AAAAAAA 5-2 68.55 61.42 17
30 [13] Brookwood 7 - AAAAAAA 5-2 68.54 55.77 38
31 [5] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 - AAAAA 6-2 67.98 47.80 86
32 [9] Dalton 6 - AAAAAA 7-0 67.80 44.55 107
33 [6] Ware County 2 - AAAAA 3-3 67.38 67.53 4
34 [14] Tift County 1 - AAAAAAA 5-3 67.17 63.99 12
35 [7] Grady 6 - AAAAA 6-1 66.76 35.45 184
36 [15] South Gwinnett 8 - AAAAAAA 5-2 66.33 58.18 27
37 [16] West Forsyth 5 - AAAAAAA 6-1 66.31 53.16 51
38 [17] Woodstock 4 - AAAAAAA 5-2 65.77 56.29 35
39 [10] Hughes 5 - AAAAAA 6-2 65.56 52.96 52
40 [11] Coffee 1 - AAAAAA 5-2 64.89 58.14 28
41 [18] North Paulding 3 - AAAAAAA 5-2 64.52 54.97 42
42 [2] Westminster (Atlanta) 5 - AAA 5-2 64.45 52.17 55
43 [12] Northgate 5 - AAAAAA 6-1 64.23 47.95 84
44 [19] Mountain View 6 - AAAAAAA 7-1 64.10 42.68 119
45 [13] Houston County 1 - AAAAAA 6-2 63.83 54.01 50
46 [2] Fitzgerald 1 - AA 6-1 63.81 37.63 163
47 [20] Hillgrove 3 - AAAAAAA 4-3 62.92 60.14 20
48 [21] South Forsyth 5 - AAAAAAA 4-3 62.81 57.88 31
49 [22] Westlake 2 - AAAAAAA 4-3 62.77 59.13 23
50 [23] Cherokee 4 - AAAAAAA 4-3 62.65 59.11 24
51 [24] Newton 8 - AAAAAAA 4-2-1 62.48 59.68 21
52 [25] Peachtree Ridge 6 - AAAAAAA 2-5 62.11 67.10 5
53 [14] Allatoona 6 - AAAAAA 3-4 62.11 60.75 18
54 [26] East Coweta 2 - AAAAAAA 5-2 61.82 51.25 62
55 [8] Carrollton 7 - AAAAA 6-1 61.17 43.81 113
56 [4] Sandy Creek 5 - AAAA 4-3 60.88 50.78 65
57 [3] Callaway 5 - AA 7-0 60.38 37.98 159
58 [15] Lanier 8 - AAAAAA 5-2 60.02 48.78 78
59 [27] Walton 4 - AAAAAAA 3-4 59.93 64.16 10
60 [1] Eagle's Landing Christian 5 - A 7-0 59.30 28.11 265
61 [4] Rabun County 8 - AA 6-0 59.12 20.65 329
62 [28] Lambert 5 - AAAAAAA 4-3 58.57 56.72 32
63 [3] Cedar Grove 5 - AAA 5-2 58.48 45.33 103
64 [29] Etowah 4 - AAAAAAA 4-3 58.46 56.19 36
65 [16] Creekside 5 - AAAAAA 4-3 58.24 51.36 61
66 [9] Jones County 4 - AAAAA 5-2 58.17 44.47 108
67 [17] Johns Creek 7 - AAAAAA 6-2 57.05 46.98 92
68 [5] Jefferson 8 - AAAA 6-1 56.96 35.39 185
69 [6] Marist 7 - AAAA 5-2 56.96 45.57 100
70 [4] Peach County 4 - AAA 6-1 56.76 40.53 136
71 [18] Centennial 7 - AAAAAA 6-2 56.11 45.44 102
72 [7] Mary Persons 2 - AAAA 5-2 56.01 43.48 114
73 [10] Griffin 3 - AAAAA 7-1 55.83 38.42 154
74 [5] Crisp County 1 - AAA 7-0 55.22 35.29 186
75 [8] Blessed Trinity 7 - AAAA 6-2 55.03 35.90 180
76 [11] Thomas County Central 1 - AAAAA 5-3 54.67 50.41 67
77 [12] Loganville 8 - AAAAA 6-1 54.64 36.43 174
78 [9] Cairo 1 - AAAA 6-1 54.52 40.73 131
79 [19] Douglas County 5 - AAAAAA 5-3 54.46 42.93 117
80 [1] Manchester 4 - A 8-0 54.40 12.79 374
81 [20] Stephenson 4 - AAAAAA 4-3 54.29 47.17 90
82 [6] Calhoun 6 - AAA 5-2 54.09 27.27 277
83 [10] Stephens County 8 - AAAA 6-1 54.02 36.59 172
84 [7] Lovett 5 - AAA 5-2 53.80 35.70 182
85 [2] Macon County 4 - A 5-2 53.75 37.65 162
86 [21] Effingham County 2 - AAAAAA 4-2 53.69 48.53 79
87 [30] Camden County 1 - AAAAAAA 2-5 53.65 65.25 9
88 [5] Brooks County 1 - AA 6-1 53.51 36.60 171
89 [11] Troup 5 - AAAA 6-1 53.34 38.65 148
90 [12] Ridgeland 6 - AAAA 6-0 53.30 30.37 237
91 [13] Arabia Mountain 5 - AAAAA 6-1 53.11 28.78 259
92 [22] Lovejoy 4 - AAAAAA 4-4 53.03 52.27 54
93 [2] Tattnall Square 7 - A 7-0 53.02 10.04 389
94 [8] Pace Academy 5 - AAA 4-3 52.97 51.86 56
95 [13] Cedartown 5 - AAAA 5-2 52.64 36.26 175
96 [23] Dacula 8 - AAAAAA 3-4 52.42 55.48 39
97 [14] Bainbridge 1 - AAAAA 2-4 52.34 47.85 85
98 [31] Milton 5 - AAAAAAA 2-5 52.15 63.68 13
99 [14] Eastside 4 - AAAA 5-2-1 51.91 41.44 126
100 [3] Clinch County 2 - A 6-1 51.41 27.55 273
101 [32] Wheeler 2 - AAAAAAA 3-4 51.32 52.77 53
102 [24] Brunswick 2 - AAAAAA 3-3 51.26 46.52 94
103 [15] Burke County 3 - AAAA 6-1 51.25 28.62 260
104 [25] Creekview 6 - AAAAAA 3-4 51.07 54.13 48
105 [15] Carver (Atlanta) 6 - AAAAA 5-2 50.98 36.73 169
106 [33] North Forsyth 5 - AAAAAAA 4-3 50.96 50.41 66
107 [34] Shiloh 8 - AAAAAAA 2-5 50.79 65.27 8
108 [26] Alpharetta 7 - AAAAAA 4-3 50.63 43.96 111
109 [16] Oconee County 8 - AAAA 6-1 50.60 34.66 194
110 [6] Jefferson County 4 - AA 8-0 50.41 15.51 362
111 [4] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 - A 7-0 50.37 18.24 345
112 [35] Central Gwinnett 7 - AAAAAAA 3-5 50.23 57.99 30
113 [16] Locust Grove 4 - AAAAA 5-3 50.22 41.54 125
114 [3] Wesleyan 5 - A 6-1 49.70 26.91 279
115 [36] Newnan 2 - AAAAAAA 3-4 49.67 48.37 80
116 [9] Liberty County 2 - AAA 6-1 49.53 29.63 245
117 [17] Spalding 2 - AAAA 3-4 49.17 50.07 70
118 [17] Dutchtown 4 - AAAAA 3-4 49.11 49.51 73
119 [27] Cambridge 7 - AAAAAA 5-3 49.03 42.90 118
120 [18] Ola 4 - AAAAA 4-3 48.68 50.85 63
121 [37] Marietta 3 - AAAAAAA 3-4 48.53 47.98 83
122 [19] Riverdale 3 - AAAAA 6-1 48.43 30.36 238
123 [4] Fellowship Christian 6 - A 7-0 48.07 15.05 367
124 [18] West Laurens 2 - AAAA 5-2 47.81 35.14 191
125 [28] Sequoyah 6 - AAAAAA 3-4 47.61 51.80 57
126 [5] Twiggs County 7 - A 5-2 46.98 33.77 203
127 [20] Starr's Mill 3 - AAAAA 4-4 46.93 46.48 95
128 [29] Gainesville 8 - AAAAAA 3-4 46.86 48.08 82
129 [7] Pepperell 7 - AA 5-1 46.83 30.20 241
130 [10] Jackson 4 - AAA 6-2 46.82 31.96 219
131 [30] Richmond Hill 2 - AAAAAA 6-0 46.57 27.61 270
132 [21] Warner Robins 1 - AAAAA 2-6 46.00 56.44 34
133 [5] Landmark Christian 5 - A 7-0 45.75 16.42 356
134 [6] Prince Avenue Christian 8 - A 8-0 45.47 16.45 355
135 [7] Darlington 6 - A 6-2 45.44 32.19 216
136 [38] Collins Hill 6 - AAAAAAA 2-6 45.24 56.06 37
137 [31] Sprayberry 6 - AAAAAA 4-3 45.17 41.31 127
138 [22] Veterans 1 - AAAAA 4-4 44.76 45.86 98
139 [8] Calvary Day 3 - A 5-0 44.27 1.76 416
140 [32] Heritage (Conyers) 3 - AAAAAA 4-3 43.89 40.43 137
141 [11] Dawson County 7 - AAA 5-1 43.75 29.24 251
142 [9] Mount Paran Christian 6 - A 6-1 43.65 20.57 330
143 [23] Whitewater 3 - AAAAA 5-2 43.51 32.88 210
144 [24] Clarke Central 8 - AAAAA 4-4 43.37 40.26 139
145 [8] Washington County 3 - AA 5-2 42.68 33.01 209
146 [12] Pierce County 2 - AAA 5-2 42.54 26.72 283
147 [19] Upson-Lee 2 - AAAA 4-3 42.48 39.20 143
148 [25] East Paulding 7 - AAAAA 2-5 42.37 54.93 43
149 [13] Worth County 1 - AAA 4-3 42.06 38.27 156
150 [20] Carver (Columbus) 1 - AAAA 3-4 42.00 39.16 144
151 [21] St. Pius X 8 - AAAA 0-7 41.99 59.50 22
152 [6] Emanuel County Institute 3 - A 7-0 41.90 7.61 400
153 [26] Hiram 7 - AAAAA 4-4 41.72 41.09 129
154 [27] Southwest DeKalb 5 - AAAAA 4-3 41.45 38.33 155
155 [14] Sonoraville 6 - AAA 6-2 41.37 28.60 261
156 [9] Vidalia 2 - AA 5-2 41.06 31.53 223
157 [10] Stratford Academy 7 - A 5-2 40.86 29.01 257
158 [22] West Hall 7 - AAAA 5-3 40.76 35.87 181
159 [23] LaGrange 5 - AAAA 2-6 40.59 54.28 47
160 [33] Drew 4 - AAAAAA 2-5 40.57 50.15 68
161 [24] Chapel Hill 5 - AAAA 3-3-1 40.39 40.64 133
162 [25] Northwest Whitfield 6 - AAAA 5-3 40.37 31.41 224
163 [7] Irwin County 2 - A 4-3 40.32 34.70 193
164 [28] Eagle's Landing 4 - AAAAA 2-6 40.20 51.65 60
165 [34] Evans 3 - AAAAAA 5-2 40.11 25.29 293
166 [26] Madison County 8 - AAAA 5-2 39.68 31.92 220
167 [29] Paulding County 7 - AAAAA 3-4 39.57 47.07 91
168 [15] Cook 1 - AAA 4-4 39.50 39.28 142
169 [27] Hardaway 1 - AAAA 4-2 39.49 41.18 128
170 [10] Model 7 - AA 5-2 39.30 30.15 242
171 [30] Cass 7 - AAAAA 3-4 39.24 42.96 116
172 [31] Villa Rica 7 - AAAAA 4-4 38.86 40.95 130
173 [11] Thomasville 1 - AA 3-3 38.74 38.57 152
174 [8] McIntosh County Academy 3 - A 4-1 38.71 27.60 271
175 [32] Fayette County 3 - AAAAA 3-3-1 38.62 39.44 141
176 [39] Pebblebrook 2 - AAAAAAA 4-3 38.51 31.31 225
177 [35] Winder-Barrow 8 - AAAAAA 4-3 38.16 35.03 192
178 [36] Pope 7 - AAAAAA 2-5 38.14 49.14 75
179 [28] Americus-Sumter 1 - AAAA 3-4 37.73 44.00 110
180 [16] Westside (Macon) 4 - AAA 3-4 37.71 37.75 160
181 [17] Appling County 2 - AAA 4-2 37.62 32.25 214
182 [12] Hapeville Charter 6 - AA 4-3 37.56 38.17 158
183 [13] Lamar County 5 - AA 4-3 37.52 35.99 176
184 [18] Pike County 4 - AAA 5-2 37.42 29.51 247
185 [29] Salem 4 - AAAA 5-2 37.27 27.81 267
186 [14] Elbert County 8 - AA 5-1-1 37.17 18.39 341
187 [30] Luella 4 - AAAA 4-4 37.11 38.57 151
188 [9] Bowdon 6 - A 5-3 36.98 28.57 262
189 [40] Kennesaw Mountain 3 - AAAAAAA 2-5 36.78 46.57 93
190 [15] Toombs County 2 - AA 5-2 36.74 23.81 308
191 [16] Southwest 3 - AA 4-3 36.63 36.97 167
192 [10] Lincoln County 7 - A 5-1-1 36.59 26.88 280
193 [37] Habersham Central 8 - AAAAAA 4-3 36.43 35.20 188
194 [33] Harris County 1 - AAAAA 3-4 36.41 39.98 140
195 [17] Heard County 5 - AA 5-2 36.34 21.90 322
196 [31] Westover 1 - AAAA 4-3 36.27 32.74 211
197 [11] Dooly County 4 - A 4-3 35.79 30.25 240
198 [18] Spencer 5 - AA 5-2 35.71 26.02 288
199 [11] Aquinas 7 - A 5-2 35.58 27.28 275
200 [19] Screven County 4 - AA 6-1 35.50 10.35 385
201 [34] Banneker 6 - AAAAA 5-2 34.88 24.34 304
202 [20] Rockmart 7 - AA 5-2 34.86 24.66 301
203 [41] Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 - AAAAAAA 4-4 34.78 40.60 134
204 [19] Morgan County 8 - AAA 5-2 34.74 20.22 332
205 [32] Columbus 1 - AAAA 3-4 34.57 35.57 183
206 [21] Chattooga 7 - AA 4-3 34.53 32.52 212
207 [22] Dodge County 3 - AA 3-5 34.47 36.76 168
208 [38] Chattahoochee 7 - AAAAAA 3-4 34.45 38.87 146
209 [33] Northside (Columbus) 1 - AAAA 4-3 34.29 31.30 226
210 [39] South Paulding 5 - AAAAAA 1-6 34.27 56.66 33
211 [35] Riverwood 6 - AAAAA 3-4 34.11 35.93 179
212 [20] Monroe 1 - AAA 2-4 34.09 40.60 135
213 [40] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 - AAAAAA 3-4 34.00 38.58 150
214 [21] Jenkins 3 - AAA 5-1 33.94 13.94 370
215 [41] Jonesboro 4 - AAAAAA 1-6 33.79 54.04 49
216 [12] Pinecrest Academy 6 - A 4-3 33.65 30.99 232
217 [12] Taylor County 4 - A 6-1 33.32 10.46 384
218 [42] Forsyth Central 5 - AAAAAAA 3-3 33.25 33.29 206
219 [43] Rockdale County 8 - AAAAAAA 2-6 33.17 50.09 69
220 [42] Mundy's Mill 4 - AAAAAA 2-6 33.15 44.77 104
221 [13] Turner County 2 - A 4-3 33.07 31.98 218
222 [34] Pickens 6 - AAAA 3-4 32.96 33.02 208
223 [22] Central (Macon) 4 - AAA 5-3 32.50 28.33 263
224 [35] Perry 2 - AAAA 3-4 32.10 34.31 198
225 [23] Union County 7 - AAA 6-2 31.97 27.72 268
226 [23] Dublin 3 - AA 6-2 31.83 22.16 320
227 [43] Tri-Cities 5 - AAAAAA 0-7 31.74 63.34 14
228 [24] Redan 5 - AAA 2-5 31.58 46.26 96
229 [13] Athens Academy 8 - A 7-0 31.55 3.91 411
230 [36] McIntosh 3 - AAAAA 3-4 31.49 34.31 199
231 [37] Wayne County 2 - AAAAA 1-6 31.41 49.39 74
232 [14] First Presbyterian 7 - A 5-2 31.39 22.31 319
233 [25] Bremen 6 - AAA 4-3 31.21 22.52 317
234 [26] North Hall 7 - AAA 5-3 31.17 27.65 269
235 [15] Savannah Christian 3 - A 3-2 31.03 25.79 292
236 [24] K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6 - AA 6-1 30.75 15.45 363
237 [44] Grovetown 3 - AAAAAA 3-5 30.65 34.42 197
238 [38] Lithonia 5 - AAAAA 3-4 30.37 30.71 235
239 [16] Mount Pisgah Christian 6 - A 5-1 30.05 8.47 396
240 [25] Douglass 6 - AA 5-2 29.87 18.85 339
241 [14] Washington-Wilkes 7 - A 2-5 29.68 37.62 164
242 [27] Brantley County 2 - AAA 4-2 29.41 24.27 305
243 [45] Northview 7 - AAAAAA 1-6 29.39 49.07 76
244 [15] Commerce 8 - A 5-2 29.25 9.68 391
245 [39] Flowery Branch 8 - AAAAA 3-5 29.15 34.59 196
246 [46] River Ridge 6 - AAAAAA 2-5 28.94 44.74 105
247 [40] Cedar Shoals 8 - AAAAA 3-4 28.28 33.42 205
248 [28] Hart County 8 - AAA 1-5-1 28.26 42.39 121
249 [16] Marion County 4 - A 6-2 28.15 8.08 398
250 [41] North Springs 6 - AAAAA 4-3 27.93 25.24 295
251 [17] George Walton Academy 8 - A 6-1 27.89 2.83 413
252 [47] Lakeside (Evans) 3 - AAAAAA 2-5 27.82 35.94 178
253 [26] Laney 4 - AA 2-5 27.65 34.65 195
254 [48] M.L. King 4 - AAAAAA 2-5 27.59 37.67 161
255 [29] Adairsville 6 - AAA 2-5 27.33 38.78 147
256 [17] Greene County 7 - A 4-3 27.31 27.13 278
257 [42] Walnut Grove 8 - AAAAA 3-4 27.11 29.08 255
258 [49] South Cobb 6 - AAAAAA 1-6 26.97 48.91 77
259 [36] Baldwin 3 - AAAA 3-4 26.75 35.25 187
260 [37] Heritage (Ringgold) 6 - AAAA 5-3 26.69 15.23 366
261 [30] Franklin County 8 - AAA 3-5 26.34 30.74 234
262 [18] Mitchell County 1 - A 6-1 26.11 10.26 386
263 [18] Athens Christian 8 - A 4-3 26.06 20.81 327
264 [19] Telfair County 2 - A 3-3 25.19 25.95 290
265 [27] B.E.S.T. Academy 6 - AA 2-6 25.12 36.64 170
266 [20] Pelham 1 - A 6-1 25.09 6.58 406
267 [50] New Manchester 5 - AAAAAA 0-8 24.90 54.37 46
268 [31] Savannah 3 - AAA 5-1 24.84 7.20 403
269 [51] Greenbrier 3 - AAAAAA 5-2 24.73 15.57 361
270 [52] Bradwell Institute 2 - AAAAAA 2-3-1 24.59 28.31 264
271 [21] Randolph-Clay 1 - A 6-1 24.34 1.96 415
272 [53] North Atlanta 7 - AAAAAA 1-6 24.27 42.38 122
273 [32] Lumpkin County 7 - AAA 3-4 24.18 28.93 258
274 [22] Charlton County 2 - A 2-4 24.08 26.00 289
275 [38] Chestatee 7 - AAAA 3-5 24.06 30.77 233
276 [43] Statesboro 2 - AAAAA 0-7 24.05 45.69 99
277 [33] Dougherty 1 - AAA 2-5 23.97 32.23 215
278 [28] Berrien 1 - AA 3-4 23.62 31.00 231
279 [44] Union Grove 4 - AAAAA 1-5-1 23.60 43.30 115
280 [39] Shaw 1 - AAAA 1-6 23.42 38.50 153
281 [19] Our Lady of Mercy 5 - A 2-5 23.33 44.45 109
282 [34] North Murray 6 - AAA 4-3 23.16 18.38 342
283 [40] North Clayton 4 - AAAA 3-4 23.02 29.12 253
284 [35] Ringgold 6 - AAA 4-4 22.68 23.10 311
285 [36] Southeast Bulloch 3 - AAA 2-4 22.46 29.38 248
286 [37] Tattnall County 2 - AAA 3-4 22.34 23.17 310
287 [41] White County 7 - AAAA 1-6 22.27 38.95 145
288 [54] Dunwoody 7 - AAAAAA 2-5 22.16 32.11 217
289 [29] Swainsboro 2 - AA 2-5 22.11 33.07 207
290 [23] Trion 6 - A 4-3 21.98 14.94 368
291 [45] South Effingham 2 - AAAAA 0-7 21.98 47.56 87
292 [46] Columbia 5 - AAAAA 2-5 21.57 34.25 200
293 [30] Therrell 6 - AA 3-5 21.54 26.83 281
294 [44] Discovery 6 - AAAAAAA 1-6 20.91 45.92 97
295 [20] Holy Innocents 5 - A 3-4 20.91 26.29 285
296 [42] Howard 2 - AAAA 1-6 20.90 35.16 190
297 [38] East Hall 7 - AAA 2-5 20.80 27.52 274
298 [24] Gordon Lee 6 - A 4-3 20.78 16.14 358
299 [55] Apalachee 8 - AAAAAA 2-4-1 20.61 27.94 266
300 [47] Maynard Jackson 6 - AAAAA 2-5 20.57 31.26 229
301 [25] Warren County 7 - A 3-4 20.26 24.98 298
302 [39] Jackson County 8 - AAA 3-5 19.59 25.25 294
303 [31] Bryan County 2 - AA 2-4 19.29 29.33 250
304 [48] Miller Grove 5 - AAAAA 2-5 19.26 29.69 244
305 [40] Rutland 4 - AAA 2-6 19.12 35.16 189
306 [45] Campbell 2 - AAAAAAA 0-7 19.11 47.47 88
307 [49] Hampton 4 - AAAAA 1-6 18.26 42.68 120
308 [56] Alcovy 3 - AAAAAA 4-4 18.11 22.89 313
309 [41] Murray County 6 - AAA 5-3 17.92 11.84 377
310 [43] Central (Carrollton) 5 - AAAA 0-8 17.92 42.17 123
311 [26] Terrell County 1 - A 4-3 17.77 13.86 371
312 [46] Duluth 6 - AAAAAAA 2-5 17.49 32.44 213
313 [50] Decatur 6 - AAAAA 1-6 17.39 31.84 221
314 [27] Hancock Central 7 - A 3-4 17.22 21.40 324
315 [32] Bacon County 2 - AA 1-5 17.15 30.31 239
316 [21] Savannah Country Day 3 - A 4-1 16.97 3.28 412
317 [22] Brookstone 4 - A 3-4 16.89 22.66 316
318 [33] Early County 1 - AA 0-7-1 16.75 38.25 157
319 [34] Washington 6 - AA 2-6 16.62 31.74 222
320 [35] Metter 2 - AA 2-4 16.55 22.03 321
321 [36] Northeast 3 - AA 1-6 16.35 31.30 227
322 [28] Miller County 1 - A 5-2 16.23 7.73 399
323 [44] Richmond Academy 3 - AAAA 2-4 16.11 22.73 315
324 [37] South Atlanta 6 - AA 2-6 15.77 26.32 284
325 [45] North Oconee 8 - AAAA 0-7 15.70 40.42 138
326 [29] Atkinson County 2 - A 2-5 15.67 29.59 246
327 [38] Coosa 7 - AA 3-4 15.01 21.14 326
328 [51] Woodland (Cartersville) 7 - AAAAA 0-8 14.89 40.68 132
329 [42] Kendrick 4 - AAA 0-7 14.26 33.81 202
330 [46] Druid Hills 4 - AAAA 2-5 14.14 24.98 299
331 [39] Banks County 8 - AA 3-4 14.03 17.90 350
332 [23] Hebron Christian Academy 8 - A 4-3 13.82 11.93 376
333 [30] Wheeler County 3 - A 6-2 13.73 2.19 414
334 [47] Cross Creek 3 - AAAA 4-3 13.52 7.23 402
335 [31] Crawford County 4 - A 3-3 13.50 19.95 336
336 [52] New Hampstead 2 - AAAAA 1-4-1 12.72 25.09 297
337 [48] Southeast Whitfield 6 - AAAA 5-3 12.70 5.42 407
338 [24] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 - A 4-3 12.50 8.89 394
339 [43] Towers 5 - AAA 2-5 12.41 24.83 300
340 [32] Seminole County 1 - A 3-3-1 12.27 10.11 388
341 [53] Chamblee 5 - AAAAA 1-6 12.24 31.16 230
342 [40] Temple 5 - AA 5-2 11.84 6.81 405
343 [33] Hawkinsville 4 - A 3-4 11.77 17.93 349
344 [41] Jeff Davis 2 - AA 1-5 11.59 25.86 291
345 [54] Morrow 3 - AAAAA 1-7 11.53 41.73 124
346 [42] Monticello 8 - AA 2-5 11.52 22.86 314
347 [44] Long County 2 - AAA 1-3-2 11.08 20.22 333
348 [49] Henry County 4 - AAAA 0-7 11.01 47.17 89
349 [34] Johnson County 3 - A 4-3 10.93 7.30 401
350 [35] Jenkins County 3 - A 4-3 10.29 7.12 404
351 [45] Monroe Area 8 - AAA 2-6 10.26 25.09 296
352 [46] Fannin County 7 - AAA 2-5 10.18 29.74 243
353 [36] Wilkinson County 7 - A 1-6 9.51 24.08 307
354 [43] Jordan 5 - AA 0-7 9.40 36.51 173
355 [44] Josey 4 - AA 4-3 9.24 5.36 408
356 [45] Albany 1 - AA 0-7 8.92 35.94 177
357 [25] Walker 6 - A 1-6 8.52 29.05 256
358 [46] Putnam County 8 - AA 1-7 8.44 24.60 302
359 [37] Schley County 4 - A 2-5 7.87 23.08 312
360 [26] Mount de Sales 7 - A 2-5 7.22 24.56 303
361 [47] Windsor Forest 3 - AAA 4-2 6.83 3.91 410
362 [38] Treutlen 3 - A 3-4 6.77 10.20 387
363 [27] Strong Rock Christian 5 - A 3-4 6.49 15.37 364
364 [47] Meadowcreek 7 - AAAAAAA 1-6 6.40 27.28 276
365 [47] Dade County 7 - AA 2-5 6.34 21.70 323
366 [57] Osborne 6 - AAAAAA† 0-7 5.92 38.64 149
367 [55] Lithia Springs 6 - AAAAA 0-7 5.30 37.44 165
368 [48] Butler 4 - AA 2-5 4.72 16.71 353
369 [50] LaFayette 6 - AAAA 2-5 4.68 18.03 346
370 [48] McNair 5 - AAA 3-4 4.56 8.82 395
371 [28] King's Ridge Christian 6 - A 3-4 4.35 9.41 392
372 [49] Bleckley County 3 - AA 2-6 4.16 18.92 338
373 [49] East Jackson 8 - AAA 2-5 3.95 17.80 351
374 [50] East Laurens 3 - AA 1-6 3.87 26.77 282
375 [51] Harlem 4 - AA 2-6 3.60 15.86 360
376 [51] Gilmer 6 - AAAA 0-7 3.50 27.56 272
377 [52] Glenn Hills 4 - AA 2-5 3.44 18.31 344
378 [58] Forest Park 4 - AAAAAA† 1-7 3.37 29.12 254
379 [1] Georgia Military College 7 - A† 4-3 3.00 -2.84 418
380 [39] Wilcox County 2 - A 1-6 2.95 22.46 318
381 [40] Towns County 8 - A 2-5 2.06 24.23 306
382 [41] Chattahoochee County 1 - A 2-5 1.61 13.49 372
383 [50] Haralson County 6 - AAA 1-6 1.55 30.40 236
384 [51] Islands 3 - AAA 2-4 0.48 11.53 378
385 [29] Christian Heritage 6 - A 1-6 0.44 18.37 343
386 [42] Montgomery County 3 - A 1-6 -0.17 20.00 334
387 [43] Lanier County 2 - A 1-6 -0.23 18.51 340
388 [44] Claxton 3 - A 0-5 -0.36 29.35 249
389 [30] Lakeview Academy 8 - A 1-6 -2.17 23.69 309
390 [52] Beach 3 - AAA 1-6 -3.27 16.19 357
391 [45] Portal 3 - A 0-5 -3.73 16.59 354
392 [53] Social Circle 8 - AA 2-6 -4.42 14.22 369
393 [31] Whitefield Academy 6 - A 2-5 -4.69 21.18 325
394 [53] Groves 3 - AAA 1-6 -5.00 11.38 380
395 [54] Stone Mountain 5 - AAA 1-6 -5.47 26.13 286
396 [54] Armuchee 7 - AA 2-5 -5.55 9.93 390
397 [32] Riverside Military Academy 8 - A 1-6 -5.91 20.69 328
398 [46] Greenville 4 - A 1-7 -6.63 26.09 287
399 [55] Westside (Augusta) 4 - AA 1-6 -7.13 19.22 337
400 [56] Johnson (Gainesville) 8 - AAAAA 0-8 -7.57 29.17 252
401 [47] Central (Talbotton) 4 - A 1-6 -8.15 17.79 352
402 [48] Berkmar 7 - AAAAAAA 0-8 -8.79 45.48 101
403 [48] Calhoun County 1 - A 1-6 -9.36 10.76 383
404 [33] Pacelli 4 - A 1-7 -11.35 17.95 348
405 [55] Johnson (Savannah) 3 - AAA 0-5 -11.79 20.52 331
406 [34] St. Francis 6 - A 1-6 -11.83 11.50 379
407 [56] Oglethorpe County 8 - AA 0-7 -14.10 9.15 393
408 [35] North Cobb Christian 6 - A 0-7 -14.44 15.99 359
409 [36] Providence Christian 8 - A 1-6 -14.85 11.24 381
410 [56] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 - AAA 1-6 -15.71 13.36 373
411 [52] Hephzibah 3 - AAAA 0-7 -16.75 11.10 382
412 [49] Stewart County 1 - A 2-5 -17.79 5.10 409
413 [57] Clarkston 5 - AAAAA† 1-7 -21.42 12.00 375
414 [50] Baconton Charter 1 - A 1-6 -23.19 8.22 397
415 [57] Gordon Central 7 - AA 0-7 -24.10 15.36 365
416 [57] Coahulla Creek 6 - AAA 0-7 -26.91 19.97 335
417 [2] Glascock County 7 - A† 1-5 -27.41 -3.04 419
418 [51] Fulton Leadership Academy 5 - A 0-7 -30.68 17.96 347
419 [58] Cross Keys 5 - AAAAA† 1-3 -36.46 -8.81 420
420 [3] Webster County 1 - A† 0-0 -41.35 0.00 417
421 [4] Pataula Charter 1 - A† 0-3 -50.28 -29.35 421

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 - AAAAAA 89.76 73.72
2 1 - AAAAAAA 88.66 71.51
3 4 - AAAAAAA 86.84 66.89
4 8 - AAAAAAA 85.06 63.29
5 3 - AAAAAAA 81.20 62.12
6 6 - AAAAAAA 79.92 55.16
7 7 - AAAAAAA 78.16 49.12
8 5 - AAAAAA 74.35 54.84
9 5 - AAAA 71.13 49.62
10 5 - AAAAAAA 70.86 54.69
11 6 - AAAAAA 70.09 50.98
12 4 - AAAAA 69.16 48.67
13 2 - AAAAAA 67.91 49.79
14 7 - AAAAA 67.35 46.07
15 2 - AAAAAAA 66.45 48.65
16 8 - AAAAA 62.47 35.86
17 5 - AAA 62.26 37.10
18 1 - AAAAA 61.88 46.91
19 8 - AAAA 61.47 44.66
20 8 - AAAAAA 60.47 42.82
21 4 - AAAAAA 60.22 42.26
22 7 - AAAA 59.68 39.95
23 2 - AAAA 58.89 42.06
24 4 - AAAA 58.70 33.58
25 7 - AAAAAA 58.53 40.16
26 3 - AAAA 58.35 25.21
27 1 - AA 58.20 33.13
28 3 - AAAAA 57.63 40.77
29 1 - AAA 55.71 38.86
30 7 - AAA 54.15 31.05
31 6 - AAAAA 53.89 30.89
32 2 - AAAAA 53.70 28.00
33 4 - AAA 53.69 35.08
34 1 - AAAA 53.43 37.64
35 5 - AA 52.85 31.89
36 5 - A 51.91 24.99
37 2 - AAA 50.33 32.48
38 2 - AA 49.74 26.43
39 3 - AAAAAA 46.98 30.79
40 6 - AAAA 46.54 24.47
41 6 - A 45.92 22.02
6 - Div A - A 47.83 24.99
6 - Div B - A 44.11 19.11
42 7 - A 45.87 29.80
7 - Div A - A 53.13 32.86
7 - Div B - A 39.34 27.83
43 2 - A 44.78 24.10
44 7 - AA 44.04 21.05
45 3 - AA 43.92 25.14
46 4 - A 43.86 18.21
4 - Div B - A 46.90 24.93
4 - Div A - A 39.01 8.86
47 5 - AAAAA 43.62 28.83
48 6 - AAA 42.53 20.41
6 - South - AAA 52.07 32.37
6 - North - AAA 28.52 7.62
49 8 - AA 41.58 12.96
50 6 - AA 40.76 25.27
51 3 - A 38.84 16.20
3 - Div A - A 43.66 22.00
3 - Div B - A 31.86 12.22
52 4 - AA 38.47 13.67
53 8 - A 37.66 15.95
54 8 - AAA 37.51 20.80
55 3 - AAA 29.00 7.65
56 1 - A 25.65 9.18

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
09/16 Salem Chamblee 0 - 6 26.10 93.2% 0.123
08/26 Cedar Grove Southwest DeKalb 20 - 21 18.10 85.9% 0.236
08/26 West Forsyth Pace Academy 10 - 20 14.41 80.9% 0.248
08/26 Wheeler County Georgia Military College 20 - 41 11.80 76.5% 0.263
09/02 West Laurens Dodge County 0 - 3 14.41 80.9% 0.278
08/19 Troup Hardaway 14 - 21 12.77 78.2% 0.286
09/03 Colquitt County Tucker 20 - 21 13.33 79.1% 0.305
08/26 Veterans Dublin 20 - 21 11.86 76.6% 0.328
09/23 B.E.S.T. Academy Washington 0 - 7 9.57 72.3% 0.340
09/02 Cherokee Creekview 34 - 35 10.52 74.1% 0.349
09/30 Griffin Starr's Mill 49 - 52 9.97 73.0% 0.349
10/08 Monroe Dougherty 14 - 21 9.05 71.2% 0.349
08/26 Norcross Collins Hill 17 - 14 39.73 98.2% 0.351
09/30 Sandy Creek Troup 20 - 28 8.61 70.3% 0.353
09/02 Pelham Terrell County 15 - 24 8.38 69.8% 0.354

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
86.26 08/20 Mill Creek Colquitt County 34 - 27 8.13 69.3%
85.99 09/02 Grayson McEachern 16 - 13 10.12 73.3%
85.73 09/09 Roswell Colquitt County 34 - 3 15.23 82.1%
84.09 09/23 Valdosta Colquitt County 24 - 45 1.81 54.5%
83.12 10/07 Valdosta Northside (Warner Robins) 14 - 6 3.34 58.3%
83.06 08/19 Roswell Buford 24 - 7 17.18 84.8%
81.09 08/19 Valdosta Lowndes 38 - 13 6.12 64.8%
80.93 10/28 Colquitt County Lowndes - 5.38 63.1%
76.39 10/21 Valdosta Lee County - 10.24 73.6%
75.78 09/30 Norcross Parkview 38 - 15 12.36 77.5%
75.45 10/07 McEachern North Cobb 17 - 10 10.56 74.2%
75.40 09/09 Mill Creek Archer 31 - 10 18.16 86.0%
75.32 08/20 McEachern Archer 27 - 14 10.14 73.4%
75.31 10/14 Northside (Warner Robins) Lee County 26 - 7 10.11 73.3%
75.21 09/03 Lowndes Parkview 35 - 34 5.81 64.1%

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

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