Sports

Maxwell Week Six Summary: ECLA struggles against tough schedule; Region 1-AAAAAA's real work begins

By Todd Holcomb
Sept 30, 2014

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 417 teams throughout the 2014 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results after Week Six:

- Eagle’s Christian Landing is off to its worst start since 2000 and has locked in its worst season since joining the GHSA in 2004. Its six losses to date are more than their entire total from the last four years combined. However, according to Maxwell, they’ve played the toughest schedule in the state’s bottom two classes and the 15th toughest in the state’s bottom five classes. In fact, they’ve played a tougher schedule than any of the number one teams in each class.

- As expected, Lee County rolled over Mitchell County last Friday to extend Region 1-AAAAAA’s record to 29-0. Although the region has faced some criticism over their outside schedule, to put this accomplishment into perspective, a weighted coin that comes up heads 98.6% of the time would still only have a 50% chance of getting 29 heads in a row.

- However, Region 1-AAAAAA's heavy lifting begins as region play starts this weekend. The marquee game across the state occurs as Colquitt County hosts Lowndes Friday in Maxwell’s highest rated matchup of the season. Valdosta visits Camden County in another of the region's notable contests. The region schedule ensures only one team, at most, will finish the season undefeated, although Maxwell estimates a 42% chance no one will escape unblemished.

Each Region 1-AAAAAA team’s odds of a perfect regular season record:

Team Rating Pct Odds
Colquitt County 97.25 42.9% 1.33
Lowndes 87.46 7.6% 12.09
Camden County 86.97 6.8% 13.80
Valdosta 78.48 0.7% 146.14
Tift County 70.43 0.0% 2,871.65
Lee County 61.92 0.0% 142,473.25

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 20.80%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 877 of 954 total games including 4 ties (92.14%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 11.97 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

Home Advantage: 0.45

By Class

AAAAAA AAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Colquitt County 5-0 97.25 1 Ware County 5-0 79.56
2 North Gwinnett 4-1 89.25 2 Northside (Warner Robins) 4-1 77.44
3 Grayson 5-0 88.09 3 Creekside 4-1 77.16
4 Lowndes 5-0 87.46 4 Gainesville 3-1 75.83
5 Camden County 5-0 86.97 5 Coffee 4-1 75.01
6 McEachern 2-2 85.79 6 Allatoona 5-0 74.59
7 Dacula 5-0 84.05 7 Kell 5-0 72.15
8 Peachtree Ridge 4-1 80.26 8 Mays 4-1 71.97
9 North Cobb 4-1 80.19 9 Jones County 5-0 70.91
10 Hughes 3-1 79.92 10 Carver (Columbus) 4-1 67.40
11 Milton 3-1 79.78 11 Stephenson 2-2 66.96
12 Norcross 4-1 79.19 12 East Paulding 2-2 65.96
13 Valdosta 5-0 78.48 13 Dalton 4-1 65.75
14 Tucker 3-2 78.05 14 Glynn Academy 3-2 64.35
15 Collins Hill 3-2 77.75 15 South Paulding 3-1 64.23
AAAA AAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 4-0 95.14 1 Washington County 5-0 82.13
2 Sandy Creek 5-0 87.82 2 Calhoun 5-0 77.36
3 Griffin 5-0 80.66 3 Blessed Trinity 5-0 71.52
4 Marist 5-0 77.45 4 Westminster (Atlanta) 5-0 66.64
5 Cartersville 3-1 70.56 5 Westside (Macon) 5-0 65.92
6 Thomas County Central 3-1 67.96 6 Jefferson 5-0 65.57
7 Woodward Academy 4-1 66.11 7 Hart County 5-0 64.50
8 Cairo 4-1 64.14 8 Peach County 5-0 63.52
9 Whitewater 3-1 63.46 9 Central (Carrollton) 5-0 59.61
10 Mary Persons 4-1 62.52 10 Cedar Grove 4-1 58.82
11 Burke County 2-3 62.52 11 Adairsville 4-0 57.53
12 Carrollton 2-3 61.78 12 Elbert County 3-2 56.95
13 St. Pius X 2-2 60.59 13 Ringgold 3-2 51.69
14 North Oconee 2-2 59.33 14 Appling County 4-1 51.34
15 Troup 3-2 58.44 15 West Hall 4-1 50.19
AA A
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Greater Atlanta Christian 5-0 69.49 1 Aquinas 5-0 50.30
2 Lovett 4-2 65.60 2 Hawkinsville 5-0 50.20
3 Brooks County 3-2 63.20 3 Charlton County 5-0 49.43
4 Benedictine 3-1 62.54 4 Marion County 4-0 49.28
5 Fitzgerald 5-0 59.93 5 Mount Paran Christian 5-0 49.07
6 Vidalia 5-0 59.43 6 Irwin County 3-1-1 47.56
7 Lamar County 3-1-1 57.18 7 Landmark Christian 4-1 46.01
8 Thomasville 2-3 52.23 8 Savannah Christian 5-0 45.37
9 Washington-Wilkes 3-1 50.22 9 Calvary Day 4-0 44.61
10 Jefferson County 2-3 46.62 10 Dooly County 4-1 43.62
11 Macon County 3-2 46.57 11 Mount Pisgah Christian 3-1 42.21
12 Screven County 5-0 46.49 12 Tattnall Square 4-0 41.00
13 B.E.S.T. Academy 2-3 45.40 13 Eagle's Landing Christian 0-6 40.45
14 Bowdon 2-2 44.10 14 Pacelli 4-1 40.39
15 Model 5-0 42.57 15 Emanuel County Institute 4-1 39.81

All-Class

Rank Cls Rnk Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rnk
1 1 Colquitt County 1-AAAAAA 5-0 97.25 44.34 171
2 1 Buford 8-AAAA 4-0 95.14 55.62 73
3 2 North Gwinnett 7-AAAAAA 4-1 89.25 79.58 3
4 3 Grayson 8-AAAAAA 5-0 88.09 70.75 14
5 2 Sandy Creek 5-AAAA 5-0 87.82 52.54 97
6 4 Lowndes 1-AAAAAA 5-0 87.46 60.27 45
7 5 Camden County 1-AAAAAA 5-0 86.97 56.45 69
8 6 McEachern 4-AAAAAA 2-2 85.79 85.41 1
9 7 Dacula 8-AAAAAA 5-0 84.05 66.26 24
10 1 Washington County 3-AAA 5-0 82.13 49.32 121
11 3 Griffin 4-Div B-AAAA 5-0 80.66 43.56 182
12 8 Peachtree Ridge 7-AAAAAA 4-1 80.26 63.50 34
13 9 North Cobb 4-AAAAAA 4-1 80.19 68.48 20
14 10 Hughes 3-AAAAAA 3-1 79.92 72.82 9
15 11 Milton 5-AAAAAA 3-1 79.78 72.46 11
16 1 Ware County 3-AAAAA 5-0 79.56 56.81 67
17 12 Norcross 7-AAAAAA 4-1 79.19 62.23 41
18 13 Valdosta 1-AAAAAA 5-0 78.48 50.56 114
19 14 Tucker 2-AAAAAA 3-2 78.05 38.46 232
20 15 Collins Hill 7-AAAAAA 3-2 77.75 72.09 12
21 16 Roswell 5-AAAAAA 3-1 77.63 75.29 6
22 17 Archer 8-AAAAAA 1-3 77.57 81.32 2
23 18 Hillgrove 4-AAAAAA 3-2 77.49 70.24 15
24 4 Marist 6-AAAA 5-0 77.45 37.72 238
25 2 Northside (Warner Robins) 2-AAAAA 4-1 77.44 58.70 52
26 2 Calhoun 6-AAA 5-0 77.36 44.91 166
27 3 Creekside 6-Div B-AAAAA 4-1 77.16 63.86 31
28 19 Mill Creek 7-AAAAAA 2-3 76.86 76.38 5
29 20 Lovejoy 2-AAAAAA 3-2 76.81 68.59 19
30 4 Gainesville 8-AAAAA 3-1 75.83 48.52 126
31 5 Coffee 3-AAAAA 4-1 75.01 56.97 66
32 21 Walton 5-AAAAAA 4-1 74.82 65.72 25
33 6 Allatoona 5-AAAAA 5-0 74.59 54.07 84
34 22 Alpharetta 6-AAAAAA 4-1 72.39 50.87 110
35 7 Kell 7-Div B-AAAAA 5-0 72.15 53.93 86
36 23 Etowah 5-AAAAAA 4-1 71.98 59.14 49
37 8 Mays 6-Div B-AAAAA 4-1 71.97 58.48 54
38 3 Blessed Trinity 4-Div B-AAA 5-0 71.52 43.90 177
39 24 East Coweta 3-AAAAAA 4-0 71.37 53.79 88
40 25 Woodstock 5-AAAAAA 5-0 71.13 52.37 99
41 9 Jones County 2-AAAAA 5-0 70.91 33.17 280
42 26 Central Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 3-1 70.87 65.30 28
43 5 Cartersville 7-AAAA 3-1 70.56 57.54 59
44 27 Tift County 1-AAAAAA 5-0 70.43 43.15 185
45 1 Greater Atlanta Christian 6-AA 5-0 69.49 46.57 147
46 6 Thomas County Central 1-Div A-AAAA 3-1 67.96 49.45 120
47 28 South Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 1-4 67.88 73.64 8
48 29 Marietta 4-AAAAAA 2-3 67.55 69.15 17
49 10 Carver (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 4-1 67.40 50.44 115
50 30 Parkview 8-AAAAAA 2-3 67.30 71.58 13
51 11 Stephenson 6-Div A-AAAAA 2-2 66.96 53.45 93
52 4 Westminster (Atlanta) 4-Div B-AAA 5-0 66.64 45.69 156
53 7 Woodward Academy 5-AAAA 4-1 66.11 45.12 162
54 12 East Paulding 5-AAAAA 2-2 65.96 63.67 32
55 5 Westside (Macon) 2-AAA 5-0 65.92 38.15 237
56 13 Dalton 7-Div A-AAAAA 4-1 65.75 46.59 146
57 2 Lovett 6-AA 4-2 65.60 52.26 100
58 6 Jefferson 8-AAA 5-0 65.57 37.49 240
59 7 Hart County 8-AAA 5-0 64.50 41.15 207
60 14 Glynn Academy 3-AAAAA 3-2 64.35 64.92 29
61 15 South Paulding 5-AAAAA 3-1 64.23 57.44 60
62 8 Cairo 1-Div A-AAAA 4-1 64.14 50.79 111
63 8 Peach County 2-AAA 5-0 63.52 35.39 250
64 9 Whitewater 5-AAAA 3-1 63.46 47.48 136
65 31 Northview 6-AAAAAA 5-0 63.24 41.25 204
66 3 Brooks County 1-AA 3-2 63.20 43.78 178
67 32 Newton 2-AAAAAA 2-1 62.57 47.81 132
69 16 Lanier 8-AAAAA 5-0 62.54 48.52 127
68 4 Benedictine 2-AA 3-1 62.54 39.75 221
70 10 Mary Persons 2-AAAA 4-1 62.52 51.24 108
71 11 Burke County 3-AAAA 2-3 62.52 62.85 38
72 33 Cherokee 5-AAAAAA 4-1 62.15 50.03 117
73 34 Lee County 1-AAAAAA 4-0 61.92 30.54 300
74 17 Brunswick 3-AAAAA 3-2 61.81 52.48 98
75 12 Carrollton 5-AAAA 2-3 61.78 57.89 58
76 18 Harris County 1-AAAAA 2-2 61.74 58.03 57
77 35 Harrison 4-AAAAAA 3-2 61.48 56.51 68
78 36 Newnan 3-AAAAAA 1-3 60.90 68.35 21
79 37 South Cobb 3-AAAAAA 2-2 60.78 63.10 35
80 19 Stockbridge 4-Div B-AAAAA 3-2 60.71 44.50 169
81 13 St. Pius X 6-AAAA 2-2 60.59 57.13 65
82 38 Lassiter 5-AAAAAA 0-5 60.42 74.97 7
83 39 Brookwood 8-AAAAAA 1-4 60.32 69.08 18
84 5 Fitzgerald 1-AA 5-0 59.93 42.09 196
85 9 Central (Carrollton) 5-AAA 5-0 59.61 40.41 213
86 6 Vidalia 2-AA 5-0 59.43 29.97 307
87 20 New Manchester 5-AAAAA 3-1 59.41 53.23 95
88 14 North Oconee 8-AAAA 2-2 59.33 58.43 55
89 40 Shiloh 8-AAAAAA 1-3 59.27 72.70 10
90 10 Cedar Grove 4-Div A-AAA 4-1 58.82 45.61 157
91 21 Alexander 5-AAAAA 4-0 58.44 40.74 212
92 15 Troup 5-AAAA 3-2 58.44 53.20 96
93 16 Columbia 6-AAAA 4-1 58.28 38.26 236
94 22 Carver (Atlanta) 6-Div B-AAAAA 4-1 57.87 49.96 118
95 11 Adairsville 6-AAA 4-0 57.53 39.73 222
96 23 Luella 4-Div B-AAAAA 4-1 57.27 47.77 133
97 41 North Paulding 4-AAAAAA 2-3 57.23 61.42 43
98 24 Houston County 2-AAAAA 4-1 57.19 43.36 183
99 7 Lamar County 4-AA 3-1-1 57.18 39.07 225
100 25 Mundy's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 3-2 57.14 54.28 82
101 42 Westlake 3-AAAAAA 2-1 57.03 45.72 155
102 43 South Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 4-1 56.96 42.68 189
103 12 Elbert County 8-AAA 3-2 56.95 54.46 78
104 44 West Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 2-3 55.43 58.66 53
105 17 Bainbridge 1-Div B-AAAA 3-2 55.26 51.46 107
106 26 Evans 2-AAAAA 4-1 55.07 41.20 206
107 27 Southwest DeKalb 6-Div A-AAAAA 2-2 54.97 60.14 47
108 45 Wheeler 5-AAAAAA 1-4 54.84 63.59 33
109 28 Lakeside (Evans) 2-AAAAA 2-3 54.38 55.80 72
110 46 Lambert 6-AAAAAA 2-3 54.05 53.63 90
111 47 Centennial 6-AAAAAA 3-2 53.77 54.21 83
112 29 Richmond Hill 3-AAAAA 2-2 53.67 48.54 125
113 18 Gilmer 7-AAAA 3-1 53.01 33.55 276
114 30 Drew 4-Div A-AAAAA 3-1 52.77 37.33 242
115 31 Tri-Cities 6-Div B-AAAAA 3-1 52.39 38.55 231
116 19 West Laurens 2-AAAA 3-2 52.24 50.94 109
117 8 Thomasville 1-AA 2-3 52.23 54.98 75
118 48 Rockdale County 2-AAAAAA 3-2 52.20 53.80 87
119 32 Hiram 5-AAAAA 3-1 52.16 42.18 195
120 33 Flowery Branch 8-AAAAA 2-2 52.02 46.88 141
121 20 Eastside 4-Div A-AAAA 3-2 51.97 48.02 129
122 34 Cambridge 7-Div B-AAAAA 3-1 51.86 39.90 217
123 21 Wayne County 3-AAAA 2-4 51.86 54.65 76
124 35 Salem 8-AAAAA 4-1 51.78 45.47 159
125 13 Ringgold 6-AAA 3-2 51.69 43.93 176
126 22 Westover 1-Div B-AAAA 2-3 51.66 52.21 101
127 49 Douglas County 3-AAAAAA 1-3 51.50 60.60 44
128 14 Appling County 1-Div A-AAA 4-1 51.34 35.31 252
129 23 Stephens County 8-AAAA 3-1 51.20 40.88 211
130 36 Warner Robins 2-AAAAA 3-2 51.01 38.46 233
131 24 Thomson 3-AAAA 1-3 50.92 59.83 48
132 37 Miller Grove 6-Div A-AAAAA 3-1 50.91 41.37 203
133 25 Grady 6-AAAA 3-2 50.56 44.24 173
134 38 Effingham County 3-AAAAA 3-2 50.44 53.58 91
135 39 Clarke Central 8-AAAAA 2-3 50.40 50.09 116
137 40 M. L. King 6-Div A-AAAAA 0-4 50.30 69.33 16
136 1 Aquinas 7-Div B-A 5-0 50.30 30.46 301
138 9 Washington-Wilkes 8-AA 3-1 50.22 38.38 234
139 2 Hawkinsville 4-A 5-0 50.20 27.49 330
140 15 West Hall 7-AAA 4-1 50.19 35.33 251
141 26 Upson-Lee 2-AAAA 4-0 50.04 34.30 267
142 41 Sequoyah 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-4 50.03 65.35 27
143 16 Laney 3-AAA 2-2 49.96 46.74 143
144 27 Monroe 1-Div A-AAAA 3-2 49.87 41.49 201
145 28 Eagle's Landing 4-Div A-AAAA 4-1 49.69 41.21 205
146 29 Arabia Mountain 6-AAAA 1-3 49.64 65.56 26
147 3 Charlton County 2-A 5-0 49.43 29.06 318
148 30 Ridgeland 7-AAAA 3-1 49.31 36.83 244
149 4 Marion County 4-A 4-0 49.28 26.38 341
150 17 Callaway 5-AAA 2-3 49.10 48.82 124
151 5 Mount Paran Christian 6-Div A-A 5-0 49.07 26.11 344
152 50 Mountain View 7-AAAAAA 1-4 48.71 66.51 23
153 42 Heritage (Conyers) 8-AAAAA 1-4 48.69 54.50 77
154 31 Northwest Whitfield 7-AAAA 3-1 48.38 33.91 273
155 18 Dodge County 1-Div A-AAA 5-0 48.34 26.98 334
156 43 Riverwood 7-Div B-AAAAA 4-1 48.02 33.97 271
157 44 Dutchtown 4-Div B-AAAAA 2-3 47.59 54.34 81
158 6 Irwin County 2-A 3-1-1 47.56 40.07 215
159 51 Kennesaw Mountain 4-AAAAAA 2-2 47.20 50.60 112
160 32 Jonesboro 4-Div B-AAAA 1-4 47.06 62.73 39
161 45 Creekview 7-Div A-AAAAA 2-3 46.93 51.77 105
162 10 Jefferson County 3-AA 2-3 46.62 47.69 134
163 11 Macon County 4-AA 3-2 46.57 42.77 188
164 52 Berkmar 8-AAAAAA 0-5 46.51 78.57 4
165 12 Screven County 3-AA 5-0 46.49 27.50 329
166 33 Baldwin 2-AAAA 2-3 46.44 46.13 150
167 46 Starr's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 2-2 46.39 44.93 165
168 34 White County 8-AAAA 2-2 46.18 44.31 172
169 7 Landmark Christian 5-A 4-1 46.01 31.71 289
170 53 Duluth 7-AAAAAA 1-4 45.96 62.86 37
171 47 Forsyth Central 7-Div B-AAAAA 3-2 45.63 42.23 194
172 54 Chattahoochee 6-AAAAAA 1-4 45.55 53.55 92
173 19 Pierce County 1-Div A-AAA 3-1 45.50 36.20 245
174 13 B.E.S.T. Academy 6-AA 2-3 45.40 55.81 71
175 8 Savannah Christian 3-Div A-A 5-0 45.37 19.74 374
176 48 Loganville 8-AAAAA 2-2 45.35 46.94 139
177 49 Villa Rica 5-AAAAA 1-4 45.19 57.29 63
178 35 Pickens 7-AAAA 3-1 45.10 35.07 256
179 50 LaGrange 1-AAAAA 2-3 45.09 46.89 140
180 51 Sprayberry 7-Div B-AAAAA 3-2 45.07 32.67 284
181 52 McIntosh 4-Div A-AAAAA 2-3 45.03 46.68 144
182 53 Paulding County 5-AAAAA 2-2 45.03 46.11 151
183 54 Ola 4-Div B-AAAAA 3-2 44.73 42.35 193
184 9 Calvary Day 3-Div A-A 4-0 44.61 15.30 390
185 55 Winder-Barrow 8-AAAAA 2-3 44.19 53.73 89
186 14 Bowdon 5-AA 2-2 44.10 40.21 214
187 36 Fayette County 5-AAAA 2-3 44.07 47.88 130
188 55 Pope 5-AAAAAA 0-4 44.05 63.99 30
189 56 Northgate 4-Div A-AAAAA 2-3 43.81 45.02 163
190 37 Worth County 1-Div B-AAAA 1-2 43.80 54.43 79
191 20 Cook 1-Div A-AAA 3-2 43.76 34.77 259
192 10 Dooly County 4-A 4-1 43.62 31.08 293
193 57 Cass 7-Div A-AAAAA 2-3 43.30 52.18 102
194 58 Rome 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-3 43.18 47.84 131
195 21 Jenkins 1-Div B-AAA 2-2 43.16 45.89 153
196 56 Pebblebrook 3-AAAAAA 2-2 42.64 43.69 180
197 15 Model 7-AA 5-0 42.57 28.70 319
198 22 Washington 4-Div B-AAA 2-3 42.48 41.83 198
199 11 Mount Pisgah Christian 6-Div B-A 3-1 42.21 34.48 264
200 38 Perry 2-AAAA 1-4 42.18 57.21 64
201 59 Woodland (Stockbridge) 4-Div B-AAAAA 4-1 42.06 31.00 295
202 39 Locust Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 4-1 41.95 31.63 290
203 57 Johns Creek 6-AAAAAA 0-5 41.85 63.04 36
204 60 Dunwoody 6-Div A-AAAAA 3-1 41.81 33.96 272
205 16 Bleckley County 4-AA 2-3 41.74 45.38 160
206 61 Statesboro 3-AAAAA 0-4 41.57 54.38 80
207 62 South Effingham 3-AAAAA 2-2 41.42 40.04 216
208 40 Veterans 2-AAAA 0-4 41.41 66.71 22
209 17 Darlington 7-AA 4-1 41.32 25.50 347
210 12 Tattnall Square 7-Div A-A 4-0 41.00 11.73 399
211 23 Jackson 2-AAA 3-1 40.82 31.19 292
212 63 Union Grove 4-Div B-AAAAA 1-4 40.51 48.89 122
213 13 Eagle's Landing Christian 5-A 0-6 40.45 58.75 51
214 14 Pacelli 4-A 4-1 40.39 31.07 294
215 24 Decatur 4-Div B-AAA 3-2 40.19 38.33 235
216 41 North Hall 8-AAAA 0-4 40.00 57.40 61
217 42 Americus-Sumter 1-Div B-AAAA 2-3 40.00 43.14 186
218 64 Cedar Shoals 8-AAAAA 0-4 39.95 55.44 74
219 65 Shaw 1-AAAAA 2-3 39.86 41.43 202
220 18 Dublin 3-AA 3-2 39.85 32.62 286
221 15 Emanuel County Institute 3-Div B-A 4-1 39.81 25.84 345
222 58 Campbell 3-AAAAAA 2-2 39.53 30.63 299
223 66 Druid Hills 6-Div A-AAAAA 2-2 39.49 44.73 167
224 19 Early County 1-AA 1-3-1 39.33 42.49 191
225 43 Madison County 8-AAAA 3-1 39.28 32.80 283
226 44 Lithonia 6-AAAA 2-3 38.34 44.15 174
227 45 Spalding 4-Div B-AAAA 3-2 38.28 33.76 274
228 46 Liberty County 3-AAAA 2-4 38.24 45.90 152
229 59 North Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 0-5 37.99 56.44 70
230 47 Maynard Jackson 4-Div A-AAA 2-3 37.92 47.22 137
231 67 Banneker 6-Div B-AAAAA 0-5 37.69 60.20 46
232 20 Wesleyan 6-AA 4-1 37.62 23.29 354
233 48 Chestatee 8-AAAA 1-3 37.44 48.27 128
234 21 Seminole County 1-AA 2-2 37.17 32.54 287
235 16 Clinch County 2-A 2-3 36.94 39.77 219
236 49 Crisp County 1-Div A-AAAA 1-4 36.89 54.01 85
237 50 Chamblee 6-AAAA 1-3 36.69 39.05 226
238 17 Stratford Academy 7-Div A-A 2-2 36.55 28.26 321
239 18 Brookstone 4-A 2-2 36.19 39.21 224
240 68 Grovetown 2-AAAAA 2-3 36.16 45.25 161
241 69 Lithia Springs 5-AAAAA 1-3 36.13 52.14 103
242 25 Cedartown 5-AAA 1-4 36.13 44.48 170
243 51 Henry County 4-Div A-AAAA 3-2 36.05 33.05 281
244 19 Greenville 4-A 3-1 35.89 27.41 331
245 70 Northside (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 2-3 35.85 39.37 223
246 20 Commerce 8-A 4-1 35.43 26.46 340
247 22 Berrien 1-AA 2-2 35.26 42.52 190
248 23 Rabun County 8-AA 3-2 35.22 33.38 278
249 52 Howard 2-AAAA 2-2-1 34.87 39.75 220
250 60 Alcovy 2-AAAAAA 0-5 34.52 53.35 94
251 24 Bacon County 2-AA 2-3 34.36 38.78 228
252 25 Coosa 7-AA 2-2 34.22 34.90 257
253 26 Pace Academy 6-AA 2-4 34.13 41.77 199
254 21 First Presbyterian 7-Div A-A 3-1 34.13 27.05 333
255 71 Richmond Academy 2-AAAAA 1-3-1 33.92 43.76 179
256 27 Union County 8-AA 5-0 33.89 6.85 406
257 22 Lincoln County 7-Div B-A 3-2 33.49 30.11 304
258 23 Our Lady of Mercy 5-A 3-2 33.47 24.96 350
259 26 Tattnall County 1-Div A-AAA 3-2 33.06 29.27 315
260 24 Claxton 3-Div A-A 3-1 32.92 26.61 339
261 61 Osborne 4-AAAAAA† 1-3 32.73 45.82 154
262 72 River Ridge 7-Div A-AAAAA 3-2 32.64 33.02 282
263 53 Walnut Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 3-2 32.46 34.84 258
264 28 Pelham 1-AA 3-2 32.43 29.54 313
265 54 Riverdale 4-Div B-AAAA 3-2 32.42 26.87 336
266 55 Monroe Area 8-AAAA 0-4 32.39 46.16 149
267 27 Jackson County 8-AAA 1-4 32.37 41.60 200
268 29 Heard County 5-AA 1-4 32.11 42.87 187
269 25 Telfair County 2-A 4-1 32.03 22.88 358
270 28 Oconee County 8-AAA 5-0 31.96 11.61 401
271 26 Johnson County 3-Div B-A 2-3 31.92 30.65 298
272 62 Lakeside (Atlanta) 2-AAAAAA 2-3 31.88 36.12 246
273 30 Bremen 5-AA 3-2 31.80 25.14 349
274 31 Northeast 4-AA 2-3 31.74 34.74 261
275 32 Swainsboro 3-AA 2-3 31.24 38.77 229
276 29 Morgan County 8-AAA 2-2 31.22 26.63 338
277 27 Prince Avenue Christian 8-A 3-2 31.10 22.11 362
278 73 Bradwell Institute 3-AAAAA 0-4 31.01 52.01 104
279 28 Wilcox County 2-A 2-3 30.71 34.71 262
280 30 Sonoraville 6-AAA 3-2 30.16 27.61 327
281 31 Toombs County 1-Div A-AAA 2-2 30.16 37.39 241
282 74 Apalachee 8-AAAAA 0-5 30.12 51.70 106
283 75 Columbus 1-AAAAA 2-3 29.72 38.65 230
284 29 Pinecrest Academy 6-Div B-A 3-1 29.62 25.31 348
285 32 Rutland 2-AAA 1-4 29.51 43.28 184
286 30 Atkinson County 2-A 4-1 29.48 20.18 371
287 56 Southeast Whitfield 7-AAAA 4-0 29.30 1.31 414
288 76 Chapel Hill 5-AAAAA 0-4 29.22 49.76 119
289 33 Westside (Augusta) 3-AAA 1-3-1 28.94 37.08 243
290 33 Metter 3-AA 2-3 28.93 31.56 291
291 34 Monticello 4-AA 2-3 28.87 30.78 297
292 77 Woodland (Cartersville) 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-4 28.73 44.98 164
293 35 Dade County 7-AA 1-4 28.60 46.62 145
295 34 Spencer 2-AAA 1-3 28.13 48.88 123
294 36 Manchester 5-AA 2-3 28.13 29.56 311
296 31 Trion 6-Div A-A 4-1 28.10 16.00 387
297 35 Towers 4-Div A-AAA 1-4 27.89 42.43 192
299 36 Southwest 2-AAA 2-2 27.81 41.06 208
298 32 Athens Christian 8-A 2-3 27.81 27.40 332
300 37 Lumpkin County 7-AAA 2-3 27.74 30.98 296
301 38 Kendrick 2-AAA 2-3 27.60 34.77 260
302 33 St. Francis 6-Div B-A 4-0 27.37 1.39 413
303 39 East Hall 7-AAA 1-3 27.17 35.65 249
304 34 Calhoun County 1-A 3-2 27.05 29.54 312
305 40 Franklin County 7-AAA 2-2 26.97 35.17 253
306 78 Morrow 4-Div A-AAAAA 1-4 26.90 43.65 181
307 35 Mount de Sales 7-Div A-A 2-2 26.57 27.55 328
308 41 Dawson County 7-AAA 0-4 26.40 43.95 175
309 42 Central (Macon) 2-AAA 2-3 26.17 30.44 302
310 37 Bryan County 2-AA 2-3 25.98 29.98 306
311 43 Pepperell 5-AAA 1-4 25.75 36.09 247
312 38 Jeff Davis 2-AA 4-1 25.28 14.83 391
313 39 Holy Innocents 6-AA 1-4 25.17 35.15 254
314 44 North Clayton 4-Div A-AAA 1-4 25.06 39.01 227
315 45 Therrell 4-Div B-AAA 2-3 24.95 35.86 248
316 36 Christian Heritage 6-Div A-A 2-3 24.69 31.98 288
317 40 McIntosh County Academy 2-AA 0-5 24.51 46.37 148
318 37 Turner County 2-A 2-3 24.31 29.80 309
319 63 Habersham Central 6-AAAAAA 0-5 24.30 57.36 62
320 46 Glenn Hills 3-AAA 0-5 24.13 62.41 40
321 47 Brantley County 1-Div A-AAA 2-3 24.05 29.87 308
322 38 Hancock Central 7-Div B-A 3-2 23.87 20.64 367
323 57 Pike County 4-Div B-AAAA 0-5 23.82 44.57 168
324 58 Stone Mountain 6-AAAA 0-5 23.65 58.24 56
325 39 Athens Academy 8-A 1-2 23.56 21.31 365
326 40 Mitchell County 1-A 1-4 23.06 34.26 269
327 48 Rockmart 5-AAA 1-3 22.65 29.10 316
328 41 George Walton Academy 8-A 3-2 22.42 11.88 398
329 79 Greenbrier 2-AAAAA 1-4 22.34 50.57 113
330 42 Mount Zion (Carroll) 6-Div A-A 3-2 22.28 15.70 389
331 49 Southeast Bulloch 1-Div B-AAA 0-4 22.12 40.98 210
332 59 Heritage (Ringgold) 7-AAAA 2-2 21.90 28.20 323
333 60 Dougherty 1-Div B-AAAA 2-2 21.89 23.10 355
334 43 Whitefield Academy 6-Div B-A 2-2 21.58 17.49 384
335 80 Cross Creek 2-AAAAA 1-4 21.25 46.86 142
336 61 LaFayette 7-AAAA 2-2 21.10 22.56 360
337 50 Johnson (Savannah) 1-Div B-AAA 0-4 20.75 35.11 255
338 51 North Murray 6-AAA 2-3 20.69 23.09 356
339 44 Wilkinson County 7-Div A-A 1-3 20.21 28.12 324
340 64 Meadowcreek 7-AAAAAA 1-4 20.11 61.72 42
341 52 Beach 1-Div B-AAA 2-3 20.08 26.64 337
342 53 Banks County 7-AAA 3-2 20.01 14.18 393
343 45 Savannah Country Day 3-Div A-A 1-4 19.46 34.51 263
344 54 Fannin County 7-AAA 2-2 19.28 18.05 381
345 81 Forest Park 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-5 19.25 47.21 138
346 41 Long County 2-AA 1-3 19.19 30.41 303
347 42 Chattahoochee County 5-AA 3-1 19.14 13.57 394
348 43 Hapeville 6-AA 2-3 18.92 27.95 325
349 46 Jenkins County 3-Div A-A 4-0 18.90 8.82 405
350 47 Schley County 4-A 2-2 18.48 25.73 346
351 48 Taylor County 4-A 0-3-1 18.48 26.88 335
352 62 Albany 1-Div A-AAAA 0-4 17.80 33.24 279
353 63 Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4-Div B-AAAA 0-4 17.48 34.33 266
354 55 Jordan 2-AAA 1-4 17.14 27.81 326
355 56 McNair 4-Div A-AAA 1-4 17.06 24.43 353
356 49 Portal 3-Div A-A 2-2 16.81 21.27 366
357 44 East Laurens 3-AA 2-1-1 16.63 6.80 407
358 57 Douglass 4-Div B-AAA 2-3 16.47 26.13 343
359 64 Johnson (Gainesville) 8-AAAA† 1-5 16.28 32.66 285
360 65 Redan 6-AAAA 0-5 15.96 47.53 135
361 45 Greene County 8-AA 2-3 15.87 20.60 368
362 82 North Atlanta 7-Div B-AAAAA 1-4 15.84 40.98 209
363 46 Groves 2-AA 3-2 15.65 11.67 400
364 58 South Atlanta 4-Div A-AAA 1-4 15.51 28.30 320
365 83 North Springs 7-Div B-AAAAA 0-4 15.40 37.56 239
366 47 Chattooga 7-AA 2-3 15.11 19.52 376
367 84 Hardaway 1-AAAAA 0-5 15.09 39.86 218
368 50 Miller County 1-A 1-4 15.02 34.10 270
369 51 King's Ridge Christian 6-Div B-A 0-4 14.53 33.42 277
370 52 Hebron Christian Academy 8-A 3-2 14.43 10.03 403
371 59 Savannah 1-Div B-AAA 1-4 14.39 34.46 265
372 60 Butler 3-AAA 1-2 14.37 22.90 357
373 61 Hephzibah 3-AAA 3-1 14.36 1.92 412
374 53 Walker 6-Div A-A 1-4 14.21 26.26 342
375 48 Gordon Lee 7-AA 1-4 14.17 24.77 352
376 54 Strong Rock Christian 5-A 2-2 13.95 24.80 351
377 62 Haralson County 5-AAA 1-3 13.50 19.90 372
378 55 Terrell County 1-A 0-4 12.58 42.04 197
379 49 Putnam County 4-AA 2-4 12.30 18.19 380
380 50 Riverside Military Academy 8-AA 1-3 11.54 19.41 377
381 56 Lanier County 2-A 1-4 11.36 22.48 361
382 57 Randolph-Clay 1-A 2-3 10.84 19.02 378
383 58 Treutlen 3-Div B-A 0-5 9.14 29.10 317
384 85 Clarkston 6-Div A-AAAAA† 0-6 8.76 45.52 158
385 66 Hampton 4-Div A-AAAA 0-4 8.41 59.04 50
386 59 Fellowship Christian 6-Div B-A 1-3 8.19 12.42 396
387 63 Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6-AAA 3-2 8.14 4.61 409
388 60 Central (Talbotton) 4-A 2-3 7.72 30.09 305
389 61 Montgomery County 3-Div B-A 1-4 7.30 21.81 363
390 62 Georgia Military College 7-Div B-A 1-4 7.03 29.56 310
391 64 Josey 3-AAA 1-4 5.66 21.48 364
392 67 Windsor Forest 3-AAAA 0-5 4.96 22.85 359
393 65 Gordon Central 6-AAA 0-5 3.75 34.29 268
394 63 Wheeler County 3-Div B-A 1-4 3.25 20.44 370
395 64 Warren County 7-Div B-A 2-3 2.94 11.93 397
396 51 Crawford County 4-AA† 3-3 2.71 2.05 410
397 66 East Jackson 8-AAA 1-4 2.61 18.52 379
398 65 Twiggs County 7-Div A-A 0-4 0.80 28.23 322
399 52 Oglethorpe County 8-AA 0-4 0.49 33.69 275
400 53 Harlem 3-AA 1-4 -0.32 17.53 383
401 54 Armuchee 7-AA 1-4 -1.15 12.91 395
402 55 Temple 5-AA 2-3 -1.15 1.92 411
403 67 Islands 1-Div B-AAA 1-3 -1.37 19.77 373
404 56 K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6-AA 1-4 -2.88 29.42 314
405 66 Towns County 8-A 1-4 -5.18 11.57 402
406 68 New Hampstead 3-AAAA† 0-5 -5.63 16.97 385
407 67 Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5-A 2-3 -5.79 -1.01 415
408 68 Lakeview Academy 8-A 1-3 -7.04 -1.06 416
409 68 Murray County 6-AAA 0-4 -7.46 19.69 375
410 69 Coahulla Creek 6-AAA 0-4 -8.93 16.92 386
411 69 Baconton 1-A 0-5 -9.94 20.49 369
412 70 Glascock County 7-Div B-A† 0-5 -10.41 9.41 404
413 71 Stewart County 1-A† 0-5 -14.46 15.91 388
414 57 Social Circle 8-AA 0-4 -14.85 14.19 392
415 72 North Cobb Christian 6-Div A-A† 1-3 -18.96 5.85 408
416 69 Cross Keys 6-AAAA† 0-3 -27.35 -3.26 417
417 73 Providence Christian 8-A 0-4 -31.92 18.05 382
†-Plays non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 - AAAAAA 97.99 80.66
2 7 - AAAAAA 88.80 68.82
3 8 - AAAAAA 86.94 69.19
4 4 - AAAAAA 84.44 68.36
5 5 - AAAAAA 83.46 66.87
6 5 - AAAA 81.60 63.00
7 2 - AAAAAA 78.56 56.50
8 3 - AAAAAA 76.12 57.76
9 3 - AAAAA 75.41 55.22
10 5 - AAAAA 71.60 53.38
11 6 - AAAAA 71.32 54.22
6 - Div B - AAAAA 78.60 59.75
6 - Div A - AAAAA 64.63 50.49
12 2 - AAAAA 69.82 48.26
13 6 - AAAAAA 68.59 50.99
14 8 - AAAAA 67.32 49.56
15 8 - AAAA 66.31 46.75
16 8 - AAA 65.22 41.48
17 6 - AAAA 65.17 45.93
18 1 - AAAA 64.82 45.61
1 - Div A - AAAA 69.44 48.76
1 - Div B - AAAA 59.89 43.31
19 1 - AA 63.46 45.17
20 1 - AAAAA 63.19 41.73
21 2 - AAAA 62.88 46.93
22 7 - AAAAA 62.55 43.63
7 - Div B - AAAAA 63.67 43.17
7 - Div A - AAAAA 61.51 44.00
23 7 - AAAA 62.44 42.38
24 6 - AA 62.07 36.50
25 4 - AAAAA 61.97 45.57
4 - Div B - AAAAA 64.38 48.63
4 - Div A - AAAAA 59.59 42.52
26 3 - AAAA 60.86 45.20
27 4 - AAA 59.94 34.99
4 - Div B - AAA 68.05 42.80
4 - Div A - AAA 49.66 28.77
28 6 - AAA 58.07 22.14
29 4 - AAAA 58.03 37.55
4 - Div B - AAAA 62.41 36.74
4 - Div A - AAAA 55.52 38.25
30 2 - AAA 57.10 33.92
31 3 - AAA 56.58 26.30
32 5 - AAA 55.09 33.61
33 2 - AA 54.92 30.86
34 4 - AA 53.05 36.79
35 4 - A 52.36 34.34
36 2 - A 50.12 32.85
37 1 - AAA 50.01 30.84
1 - Div A - AAA 55.91 39.68
1 - Div B - AAA 37.94 19.59
38 3 - AA 49.76 31.40
39 5 - A 47.95 27.97
40 7 - AA 44.63 25.74
41 7 - AAA 44.37 27.43
42 5 - AA 44.26 26.89
43 3 - A 44.09 24.30
3 - Div A - A 47.75 29.31
3 - Div B - A 38.42 17.17
44 7 - A 43.59 25.81
7 - Div A - A 44.76 27.79
7 - Div B - A 41.84 22.84
45 8 - AA 42.93 19.23
46 6 - A 41.51 25.12
6 - Div A - A 42.03 26.72
6 - Div B - A 41.06 23.76
47 8 - A 35.44 15.71
48 1 - A 28.36 13.95

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
09/26 Westside (Augusta) Butler 27 - 29 14.11 80.4% 0.288
08/22 Athens Christian Strong Rock Christian 7 - 8 14.32 80.7% 0.290
08/22 Lamar County Howard 19 - 19 22.77 90.7% 0.291
08/29 Wesleyan East Hall 13 - 20 10.91 74.8% 0.317
09/19 Early County Calhoun County 12 - 14 11.83 76.5% 0.323
08/29 North Gwinnett North Cobb 29 - 36 9.51 72.1% 0.341
09/12 Metter Long County 20 - 28 9.29 71.7% 0.341
08/29 Southeast Whitfield Murray County 22 - 21 36.30 97.4% 0.346
09/05 Cook Berrien 14 - 21 8.95 71.0% 0.351
08/23 Monroe Perry 14 - 21 8.14 69.3% 0.365
08/22 South Forsyth Mountain View 31 - 38 7.80 68.6% 0.371
09/05 Appling County Jenkins 20 - 23 8.64 70.3% 0.371
09/12 Campbell Lakeside (Atlanta) 38 - 42 8.10 69.2% 0.376
09/05 Butler Josey 20 - 22 8.26 69.5% 0.381
08/28 Northside (Columbus) Kendrick 14 - 16 7.80 68.6% 0.389

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
89.86 10/03 Colquitt County Lowndes - 10.25 73.6%
89.38 11/07 Colquitt County Camden County - 10.74 74.5%
88.17 09/05 Buford McEachern 27 - 20 9.81 72.7%
87.22 08/23 North Gwinnett McEachern 52 - 49 3.45 58.6%
87.19 10/10 Lowndes Camden County - 0.94 52.4%
85.75 10/24 Grayson Dacula - 3.59 58.9%
83.00 10/10 North Gwinnett Peachtree Ridge - 8.53 70.1%
82.56 09/05 Grayson Hughes 26 - 16 7.72 68.4%
82.55 08/29 North Gwinnett North Cobb 29 - 36 9.51 72.1%
82.34 10/10 McEachern North Cobb - 5.15 62.6%
82.15 09/12 McEachern Peachtree Ridge 35 - 21 5.98 64.5%
81.59 10/03 North Gwinnett Norcross - 10.52 74.1%
81.22 10/31 Lowndes Valdosta - 8.52 70.1%
80.86 10/17 Colquitt County Valdosta - 18.31 86.2%
80.80 10/03 Camden County Valdosta - 8.94 71.0%

About the Author

Todd Holcomb

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