Sports

Maxwell Week Four Summary: Many top teams shining in spite of tough opposition

By Todd Holcomb
Sept 16, 2014

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 417 teams throughout the 2014 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results after Week Four:

- Grayson is 3-0 against the tenth toughest schedule in the state, Ware County is 3-0 against the fourth toughest schedule in Class AAAAA, Buford is 3-0 against the fourth toughest schedule in Class AAAA, and Greater Atlanta Christian is 3-0 against the seventh toughest schedule in Class AA. Blessed Trinity, Calhoun, Washington County, and Westminster (Atlanta) are all 3-0 against schedules that rated among the toughest eight in Class AAA.

- Meanwhile, McEachern earned its first win against the state's toughest schedule with a victory over Peachtree Ridge. Archer drops to 0-3 against the state's second toughest schedule to date, but is favored in six of their last seven regular season games.

- Although Colquitt County is clearly on top, Class AAAAAA is generally characterized by parity. There is roughly a 14-point difference separating #2 Camden County and #22 Archer, which can be overcome by one key turnaround play in a game.

- Region 1-AAAAAA is still marching on history with the ratings showing an 83.2% chance of defeating their last seven non-region opponents to finish the season 29-0. The closest game left, and perhaps the one to watch for anyone following the streak, is Lowndes' matchup against Newton this Friday. Still, the ratings show Lowndes as a 28-point favorite with a 94.4% chance of winning.

- The region ratings have been expanded for this week. Each region's record against outside competition and the schedule strength against their outside competition is shown. Region 8-AAAAAA is 7-11 against the toughest schedule.

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 34.70%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 575 of 608 total games including 4 ties (94.90%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 11.61 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

Home Advantage: 0.17

By Class

AAAAAA AAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Colquitt County 4-0 95.91 1 Northside (Warner Robins) 3-0 83.93
2 Camden County 4-0 87.48 2 Ware County 3-0 77.15
3 Lowndes 4-0 87.34 3 Kell 3-0 76.24
4 Grayson 3-0 87.21 4 Gainesville 1-1 74.68
5 North Gwinnett 2-1 86.68 5 Creekside 3-1 72.71
6 Milton 2-0 84.19 6 Allatoona 4-0 71.20
7 Norcross 2-1 83.90 7 Coffee 2-1 69.97
8 McEachern 1-2 83.89 8 Stephenson 2-1 68.61
9 Lovejoy 3-0 83.70 9 South Paulding 3-0 66.18
10 Dacula 3-0 82.59 10 Lanier 3-0 64.85
11 North Cobb 3-1 79.96 11 Carver (Columbus) 2-1 64.77
12 Tucker 2-2 79.76 12 East Paulding 1-2 64.35
13 Valdosta 4-0 78.91 13 Glynn Academy 2-1 63.51
14 Peachtree Ridge 2-1 78.73 14 Mays 2-1 62.86
15 Mill Creek 1-2 77.66 15 Stockbridge 2-1 62.49
AAAA AAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 3-0 94.41 1 Washington County 3-0 80.15
2 Sandy Creek 4-0 86.65 2 Calhoun 3-0 77.16
3 Griffin 3-0 83.01 3 Blessed Trinity 3-0 69.97
4 Marist 3-0 76.72 4 Westminster (Atlanta) 3-0 66.48
5 Cartersville 2-1 68.35 5 Peach County 3-0 66.47
6 Thomas County Central 1-1 68.33 6 Jefferson 4-0 65.60
7 Woodward Academy 2-1 66.33 7 Westside (Macon) 3-0 62.82
8 Burke County 2-2 65.36 8 Hart County 3-0 62.24
9 Carrollton 0-3 64.05 9 Central (Carrollton) 3-0 57.68
10 Whitewater 2-1 63.42 10 Cedar Grove 2-1 56.89
11 Cairo 2-1 61.96 11 West Hall 3-0 56.80
12 St. Pius X 1-2 60.24 12 Callaway 2-1 54.87
13 Mary Persons 2-1 58.88 13 Adairsville 3-0 54.42
14 Troup 2-1 56.78 14 Elbert County 2-1 54.31
15 Columbia 2-1 55.90 15 Laney 2-1 54.19
AA A
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Greater Atlanta Christian 3-0 66.95 1 Aquinas 3-0 54.03
2 Lovett 2-2 66.59 2 Marion County 2-0 50.65
3 Brooks County 1-2 63.33 3 Savannah Christian 3-0 49.23
4 Benedictine 1-1 60.95 4 Emanuel County Institute 3-0 46.96
5 Fitzgerald 3-0 60.32 5 Mount Paran Christian 3-0 46.52
6 Vidalia 3-0 56.77 6 Landmark Christian 3-0 46.05
7 Lamar County 1-1-1 53.74 7 Calvary Day 2-0 45.93
8 Jefferson County 1-2 49.34 8 Charlton County 3-0 45.72
9 Bowdon 2-1 48.42 9 Prince Avenue Christian 2-1 44.42
10 Thomasville 0-3 47.13 10 Irwin County 1-1-1 43.96
11 Washington-Wilkes 2-1 46.39 11 Hawkinsville 3-0 43.93
12 Early County 1-1-1 45.08 12 Mount Pisgah Christian 2-1 42.32
13 Heard County 1-2 44.25 13 Brookstone 2-0 42.13
14 Macon County 2-1 44.16 14 Eagle's Landing Christian 0-4 41.31
15 B.E.S.T. Academy 2-1 43.80 15 Dooly County 2-1 41.21

All-Class

Rank Cls Rnk Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rnk
1 1 Colquitt County 1-AAAAAA 4-0 95.91 57.67 74
2 1 Buford 8-AAAA 3-0 94.41 65.42 32
3 2 Camden County 1-AAAAAA 4-0 87.48 55.13 90
4 3 Lowndes 1-AAAAAA 4-0 87.34 56.78 79
5 4 Grayson 8-AAAAAA 3-0 87.21 75.22 10
6 5 North Gwinnett 7-AAAAAA 2-1 86.68 80.02 4
7 2 Sandy Creek 5-AAAA 4-0 86.65 51.85 107
8 6 Milton 5-AAAAAA 2-0 84.19 79.08 6
9 1 Northside (Warner Robins) 2-AAAAA 3-0 83.93 60.29 54
10 7 Norcross 7-AAAAAA 2-1 83.90 76.50 8
11 8 McEachern 4-AAAAAA 1-2 83.89 86.61 1
12 9 Lovejoy 2-AAAAAA 3-0 83.70 58.08 73
13 3 Griffin 4-Div B-AAAA 3-0 83.01 48.61 133
14 10 Dacula 8-AAAAAA 3-0 82.59 69.05 23
15 1 Washington County 3-AAA 3-0 80.15 51.37 113
16 11 North Cobb 4-AAAAAA 3-1 79.96 72.34 18
17 12 Tucker 2-AAAAAA 2-2 79.76 52.83 100
18 13 Valdosta 1-AAAAAA 4-0 78.91 53.45 98
19 14 Peachtree Ridge 7-AAAAAA 2-1 78.73 75.63 9
20 15 Mill Creek 7-AAAAAA 1-2 77.66 80.75 3
21 16 Hughes 3-AAAAAA 2-1 77.23 73.95 12
22 17 Collins Hill 7-AAAAAA 2-1 77.22 70.75 22
23 2 Calhoun 6-AAA 3-0 77.16 51.37 114
24 2 Ware County 3-AAAAA 3-0 77.15 66.48 29
25 4 Marist 6-AAAA 3-0 76.72 56.95 78
26 3 Kell 7-Div B-AAAAA 3-0 76.24 59.24 64
27 18 Hillgrove 4-AAAAAA 2-2 76.22 73.12 14
28 19 Etowah 5-AAAAAA 4-0 75.92 57.16 76
29 4 Gainesville 8-AAAAA 1-1 74.68 60.23 55
30 20 Alpharetta 6-AAAAAA 2-1 74.26 62.80 46
31 21 Walton 5-AAAAAA 3-1 74.01 66.73 27
32 22 Archer 8-AAAAAA 0-3 73.58 84.23 2
33 5 Creekside 6-Div B-AAAAA 3-1 72.71 59.83 59
34 6 Allatoona 5-AAAAA 4-0 71.20 52.00 104
35 23 Roswell 5-AAAAAA 2-1 71.18 71.49 20
36 24 East Coweta 3-AAAAAA 3-0 70.68 57.62 75
37 25 Marietta 4-AAAAAA 2-2 70.51 68.16 26
39 7 Coffee 3-AAAAA 2-1 69.97 51.60 110
38 3 Blessed Trinity 4-Div B-AAA 3-0 69.97 51.95 106
40 26 Parkview 8-AAAAAA 2-1 69.53 63.25 43
41 27 Tift County 1-AAAAAA 4-0 68.84 43.62 185
42 8 Stephenson 6-Div A-AAAAA 2-1 68.61 44.88 167
43 5 Cartersville 7-AAAA 2-1 68.35 58.59 68
44 6 Thomas County Central 1-Div A-AAAA 1-1 68.33 60.59 53
45 1 Greater Atlanta Christian 6-AA 3-0 66.95 51.95 105
46 28 Central Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 2-1 66.71 65.88 31
47 2 Lovett 6-AA 2-2 66.59 63.21 44
48 4 Westminster (Atlanta) 4-Div B-AAA 3-0 66.48 58.32 71
49 5 Peach County 2-AAA 3-0 66.47 42.43 196
50 7 Woodward Academy 5-AAAA 2-1 66.33 57.14 77
51 9 South Paulding 5-AAAAA 3-0 66.18 52.84 99
52 29 Woodstock 5-AAAAAA 4-0 65.91 46.87 149
53 6 Jefferson 8-AAA 4-0 65.60 36.45 240
54 8 Burke County 3-AAAA 2-2 65.36 59.71 60
55 30 Newnan 3-AAAAAA 1-2 65.06 73.34 13
56 10 Lanier 8-AAAAA 3-0 64.85 55.97 85
57 11 Carver (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 2-1 64.77 51.34 115
58 31 Brookwood 8-AAAAAA 0-3 64.69 77.62 7
59 12 East Paulding 5-AAAAA 1-2 64.35 64.37 38
60 9 Carrollton 5-AAAA 0-3 64.05 72.92 16
61 32 South Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 0-3 63.73 72.63 17
62 13 Glynn Academy 3-AAAAA 2-1 63.51 64.71 34
63 10 Whitewater 5-AAAA 2-1 63.42 50.43 117
64 3 Brooks County 1-AA 1-2 63.33 56.56 81
65 14 Mays 6-Div B-AAAAA 2-1 62.86 51.44 112
66 7 Westside (Macon) 2-AAA 3-0 62.82 44.76 169
67 33 Cherokee 5-AAAAAA 3-1 62.56 55.15 89
68 15 Stockbridge 4-Div B-AAAAA 2-1 62.49 32.67 272
69 34 Lee County 1-AAAAAA 2-0 62.48 45.98 162
70 35 West Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 1-2 62.31 68.72 24
71 8 Hart County 8-AAA 3-0 62.24 45.86 164
72 11 Cairo 1-Div A-AAAA 2-1 61.96 50.28 121
73 36 Lassiter 5-AAAAAA 0-4 61.49 73.07 15
74 16 Warner Robins 2-AAAAA 2-1 61.22 30.48 292
75 37 Harrison 4-AAAAAA 3-1 61.01 49.52 126
76 4 Benedictine 2-AA 1-1 60.95 55.11 91
77 17 New Manchester 5-AAAAA 3-0 60.78 50.24 123
78 18 Flowery Branch 8-AAAAA 1-1 60.71 53.73 97
79 38 Shiloh 8-AAAAAA 1-1 60.69 66.07 30
80 5 Fitzgerald 1-AA 3-0 60.32 44.16 178
81 12 St. Pius X 6-AAAA 1-2 60.24 60.03 57
82 19 Dalton 7-Div A-AAAAA 2-1 60.16 45.89 163
83 20 Harris County 1-AAAAA 1-2 59.23 59.97 58
84 39 Newton 2-AAAAAA 2-0 59.18 33.21 267
85 21 Brunswick 3-AAAAA 1-2 59.16 62.50 49
86 13 Mary Persons 2-AAAA 2-1 58.88 56.12 84
87 9 Central (Carrollton) 5-AAA 3-0 57.68 36.88 237
88 40 South Cobb 3-AAAAAA 1-2 57.19 63.78 40
89 22 Alexander 5-AAAAA 3-0 57.11 39.31 220
90 23 Mundy's Mill #N/A 1-2 57.07 66.51 28
91 10 Cedar Grove 4-Div A-AAA 2-1 56.89 52.60 101
92 11 West Hall 7-AAA 3-0 56.80 36.24 243
93 14 Troup 5-AAAA 2-1 56.78 50.17 125
94 6 Vidalia 2-AA 3-0 56.77 36.32 241
95 24 Richmond Hill 3-AAAAA 2-0 56.27 29.30 306
96 41 Westlake 3-AAAAAA 1-1 55.91 51.22 116
97 15 Columbia 6-AAAA 2-1 55.90 47.35 143
98 25 Houston County 2-AAAAA 3-0 55.86 35.16 251
99 42 Northview 6-AAAAAA 3-0 55.79 37.32 233
100 43 North Paulding 4-AAAAAA 1-3 55.64 62.84 45
101 16 Eagle's Landing #N/A 3-0 55.35 40.01 215
102 26 Lakeside (Evans) 2-AAAAA 1-2 55.20 59.34 63
103 17 Thomson 3-AAAA 1-2 54.93 63.50 41
104 12 Callaway 5-AAA 2-1 54.87 44.55 170
105 13 Adairsville 6-AAA 3-0 54.42 40.95 205
106 14 Elbert County 8-AAA 2-1 54.31 50.37 118
107 27 Riverwood 7-Div B-AAAAA 3-0 54.21 37.87 229
109 28 Clarke Central 8-AAAAA 1-2 54.19 56.47 83
108 15 Laney 3-AAA 2-1 54.19 42.81 193
110 18 Westover 1-Div B-AAAA 2-1 54.12 44.79 168
111 1 Aquinas 7-Div B-A 3-0 54.03 33.61 262
112 29 Carver (Atlanta) 6-Div B-AAAAA 3-1 54.02 46.62 152
113 7 Lamar County 4-AA 1-1-1 53.74 39.94 216
114 30 Jones County 2-AAAAA 3-0 53.55 25.59 329
115 19 North Oconee 8-AAAA 0-2 53.44 68.55 25
116 20 Bainbridge 1-Div B-AAAA 2-1 53.42 49.46 128
117 31 Southwest DeKalb 6-Div A-AAAAA 2-1 53.27 53.88 96
118 44 Wheeler 5-AAAAAA 1-3 53.05 59.06 66
119 45 Lambert 6-AAAAAA 1-2 52.89 52.20 102
120 21 Wayne County 3-AAAA 1-3 52.84 55.79 86
121 46 South Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 2-1 52.37 40.11 213
122 32 Statesboro 3-AAAAA 0-2 52.23 58.93 67
123 47 Chattahoochee 6-AAAAAA 1-2 52.16 56.48 82
124 33 Effingham County 3-AAAAA 3-0 51.87 39.94 217
125 34 Cambridge 7-Div B-AAAAA 3-0 51.81 38.33 226
126 35 Sequoyah 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-3 51.63 74.00 11
127 36 Villa Rica 5-AAAAA 1-3 51.51 61.62 51
128 16 Appling County 1-Div A-AAA 2-1 51.39 44.02 180
129 22 Baldwin 2-AAAA 2-1 51.23 42.30 197
130 48 Rockdale County 2-AAAAAA 3-1 51.06 44.89 166
131 37 Luella 4-Div B-AAAAA 3-1 51.01 41.90 199
132 38 Loganville 8-AAAAA 2-0 50.96 40.19 211
133 39 M. L. King 6-Div A-AAAAA 0-3 50.95 71.14 21
134 2 Marion County 4-A 2-0 50.65 30.58 291
135 23 Gilmer 7-AAAA 2-0 50.63 23.31 335
136 24 Eastside 4-Div A-AAAA 2-1 50.61 46.31 155
137 17 Ringgold 6-AAA 2-1 50.37 43.71 184
138 40 Drew 4-Div A-AAAAA 2-1 50.19 44.12 179
139 49 Douglas County 3-AAAAAA 1-2 49.94 54.60 92
140 50 Centennial 6-AAAAAA 1-2 49.77 58.47 69
141 41 Hiram 5-AAAAA 2-1 49.46 44.35 175
142 8 Jefferson County 3-AA 1-2 49.34 55.47 87
143 42 Evans 2-AAAAA 2-1 49.31 42.14 198
144 3 Savannah Christian 3-Div A-A 3-0 49.23 31.34 285
145 43 Tri-Cities 6-Div B-AAAAA 1-1 48.94 32.77 270
147 26 North Hall 8-AAAA 0-2 48.85 61.20 52
146 25 Pickens 7-AAAA 2-0 48.85 40.81 208
148 44 Union Grove 4-Div B-AAAAA 1-2 48.57 51.80 108
149 27 Northwest Whitfield 7-AAAA 1-1 48.56 43.10 189
150 45 Miller Grove 6-Div A-AAAAA 2-1 48.43 43.11 188
151 9 Bowdon 5-AA 2-1 48.42 39.78 218
152 28 Arabia Mountain 6-AAAA 0-3 47.66 72.04 19
153 29 Grady 6-AAAA 2-1 47.30 36.47 238
154 51 Berkmar 8-AAAAAA 0-3 47.29 79.68 5
155 10 Thomasville 1-AA 0-3 47.13 62.51 48
156 4 Emanuel County Institute 3-Div B-A 3-0 46.96 26.66 324
157 46 Rome 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-2 46.94 51.49 111
158 30 Upson-Lee 2-AAAA 2-0 46.81 30.09 300
159 31 West Laurens 2-AAAA 2-2 46.79 50.29 120
160 5 Mount Paran Christian 6-Div A-A 3-0 46.52 29.30 307
161 11 Washington-Wilkes 8-AA 2-1 46.39 32.08 277
162 32 Stephens County 8-AAAA 2-1 46.26 38.19 227
163 6 Landmark Christian 5-A 3-0 46.05 30.98 288
164 7 Calvary Day 3-Div A-A 2-0 45.93 13.24 375
166 48 Northgate 4-Div A-AAAAA 1-2 45.76 47.69 139
165 47 LaGrange 1-AAAAA 1-2 45.76 49.49 127
167 52 Mountain View 7-AAAAAA 1-2 45.75 55.28 88
168 8 Charlton County 2-A 3-0 45.72 30.41 296
169 49 Woodland (Stockbridge) 4-Div B-AAAAA 4-0 45.66 25.44 331
170 33 White County 8-AAAA 2-1 45.65 35.67 244
171 53 Kennesaw Mountain 4-AAAAAA 2-1 45.37 46.27 157
172 12 Early County 1-AA 1-1-1 45.08 40.17 212
173 18 Jenkins 1-Div B-AAA 2-1 44.83 46.07 159
174 54 Duluth 7-AAAAAA 1-2 44.78 47.48 142
175 55 Pope 5-AAAAAA 0-3 44.47 64.50 36
176 34 Worth County 1-Div B-AAAA 1-1 44.44 48.91 129
177 9 Prince Avenue Christian 8-A 2-1 44.42 28.91 308
178 50 Salem 8-AAAAA 2-1 44.29 40.40 210
179 13 Heard County 5-AA 1-2 44.25 48.23 136
180 56 Pebblebrook 3-AAAAAA 2-1 44.22 39.14 222
181 14 Macon County 4-AA 2-1 44.16 40.57 209
182 10 Irwin County 2-A 1-1-1 43.96 46.88 148
183 11 Hawkinsville 4-A 3-0 43.93 28.23 311
184 15 B.E.S.T. Academy 6-AA 2-1 43.80 47.06 147
185 19 Decatur 4-Div B-AAA 2-1 43.68 41.69 201
186 57 North Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 0-3 43.59 56.75 80
187 51 Creekview 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-3 43.48 59.63 61
188 52 Sprayberry 7-Div B-AAAAA 1-2 43.30 46.55 153
189 35 Jonesboro 4-Div B-AAAA 0-3 43.29 63.35 42
190 53 Heritage (Conyers) 8-AAAAA 0-3 43.26 48.73 131
191 36 Ridgeland 7-AAAA 2-1 43.23 31.31 286
192 54 Cass 7-Div A-AAAAA 2-1 43.10 43.21 187
193 37 Liberty County 3-AAAA 2-2 42.92 44.02 181
194 20 Cook 1-Div A-AAA 1-2 42.90 47.12 146
195 38 Locust Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 2-1 42.76 39.15 221
196 58 Johns Creek 6-AAAAAA 0-3 42.55 64.57 35
197 39 Monroe 1-Div A-AAAA 1-2 42.51 37.37 232
198 16 Dublin 3-AA 2-1 42.49 28.15 313
199 55 Starr's Mill #N/A 1-2 42.34 47.18 144
200 12 Mount Pisgah Christian 6-Div B-A 2-1 42.32 38.96 224
202 41 Chestatee 8-AAAA 1-2 42.27 50.18 124
201 40 Riverdale 4-Div B-AAAA 2-1 42.27 30.88 289
203 13 Brookstone 4-A 2-0 42.13 35.56 245
204 56 Banneker 6-Div B-AAAAA 0-3 42.09 62.72 47
205 21 Dodge County 1-Div A-AAA 3-0 41.60 19.53 356
206 57 Dutchtown 4-Div B-AAAAA 1-3 41.56 61.69 50
207 22 Pierce County 1-Div A-AAA 2-1 41.47 30.75 290
208 14 Eagle's Landing Christian #N/A 0-4 41.31 54.47 93
209 42 Americus-Sumter 1-Div B-AAAA 1-2 41.24 42.63 195
210 15 Dooly County 4-A 2-1 41.21 35.45 247
211 58 McIntosh 4-Div A-AAAAA 1-2 41.18 43.03 190
212 59 Shaw 1-AAAAA 1-2 41.09 46.06 160
213 59 Campbell 3-AAAAAA 2-1 40.95 27.18 317
214 43 Perry 2-AAAA 1-2 40.61 50.26 122
215 60 Cedar Shoals 8-AAAAA 0-2 40.39 54.25 95
216 44 Lithonia 6-AAAA 2-1 40.00 30.17 298
217 45 Veterans 2-AAAA 0-3 39.69 59.09 65
218 61 Ola 4-Div B-AAAAA 2-1 39.68 36.28 242
219 62 Dunwoody 6-Div A-AAAAA 2-1 39.30 32.56 274
220 16 Tattnall Square 7-Div A-A 3-0 38.77 8.24 396
221 17 Screven County 3-AA 3-0 38.62 31.39 284
222 46 Fayette County 5-AAAA 1-2 38.52 44.47 172
223 18 Model 7-AA 4-0 38.34 26.19 326
224 63 Paulding County 5-AAAAA 1-2 38.32 45.59 165
225 23 Jackson 2-AAA 2-1 38.22 34.14 257
226 19 Holy Innocents 6-AA 1-2 38.21 46.01 161
227 17 Pacelli 4-A 3-0 38.12 21.00 352
228 20 Seminole County 1-AA 1-1 38.03 31.73 281
229 24 Washington 4-Div B-AAA 0-3 37.90 46.16 158
230 47 Crisp County 1-Div A-AAAA 0-3 37.84 65.14 33
231 60 Alcovy 2-AAAAAA 0-3 37.82 48.65 132
232 21 Darlington 7-AA 2-1 37.81 22.21 347
233 25 Morgan County 8-AAA 2-1 37.26 26.76 323
234 48 Monroe Area 8-AAAA 0-3 37.12 51.73 109
235 64 South Effingham 3-AAAAA 1-2 36.95 40.07 214
236 49 Maynard Jackson 4-Div A-AAA 2-1 36.74 34.68 254
237 65 Druid Hills 6-Div A-AAAAA 2-1 36.72 35.52 246
238 22 Wesleyan 6-AA 2-1 36.67 29.94 302
239 66 Forsyth Central 7-Div B-AAAAA 2-1 36.56 32.30 276
240 26 Cedartown 5-AAA 0-3 36.18 48.87 130
241 18 First Presbyterian 7-Div A-A 2-0 36.04 27.51 314
242 19 Clinch County 2-A 1-2 35.98 37.79 230
243 27 East Hall 7-AAA 1-1 35.97 42.93 191
244 23 Berrien 1-AA 2-1 35.89 40.92 207
246 51 Spalding 4-Div B-AAAA 2-1 35.05 30.01 301
245 50 Howard 2-AAAA 2-1-1 35.05 35.28 248
247 28 Tattnall County 1-Div A-AAA 2-1 34.77 31.44 283
248 67 Lithia Springs 5-AAAAA 1-2 34.50 48.12 138
249 68 Richmond Academy 2-AAAAA 0-2-1 34.42 48.41 134
250 20 Stratford Academy 7-Div A-A 1-1 34.36 26.42 325
251 52 Chamblee 6-AAAA 0-2 33.84 38.01 228
252 53 Madison County 8-AAAA 2-1 33.56 28.77 309
253 69 Winder-Barrow 8-AAAAA 1-2 33.25 59.49 62
254 24 Rabun County 8-AA 2-2 33.17 37.07 236
255 25 Pace Academy 6-AA 1-3 32.73 46.75 150
256 26 McIntosh County Academy 2-AA 0-3 32.36 50.33 119
257 29 Toombs County 1-Div A-AAA 2-1 32.29 32.55 275
258 27 Bleckley County 4-AA 0-3 32.17 44.16 177
259 28 Pelham 1-AA 3-0 32.07 12.34 379
260 70 Bradwell Institute 3-AAAAA 0-3 31.99 48.24 135
261 21 Commerce 8-A 2-1 31.81 23.88 333
262 29 Coosa 7-AA 1-2 31.74 40.92 206
263 61 Lakeside (Atlanta) 2-AAAAAA 2-2 31.64 34.08 258
264 62 Osborne 4-AAAAAA† 1-3 31.62 44.24 176
265 71 Grovetown 2-AAAAA 1-2 31.57 41.62 202
266 30 Westside (Augusta) 3-AAA 1-2-1 31.56 37.71 231
267 30 Northeast 4-AA 1-2 30.89 32.74 271
268 31 Metter 3-AA 2-2 30.76 30.42 295
269 22 Trion 6-Div A-A 3-0 30.56 12.13 380
271 33 Bacon County 2-AA 1-2 30.31 34.73 253
270 32 Swainsboro 3-AA 0-3 30.31 60.06 56
272 34 Manchester 5-AA 1-2 30.16 32.00 278
273 23 Our Lady of Mercy 5-A 1-2 29.99 30.43 294
274 24 Wilcox County 2-A 1-2 29.79 35.18 250
275 72 Chapel Hill 5-AAAAA 0-3 29.72 48.16 137
276 73 River Ridge 7-Div A-AAAAA 2-1 29.35 24.87 332
277 54 Pike County 4-Div B-AAAA 0-3 29.28 47.68 140
278 74 Northside (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 1-2 29.23 33.20 268
279 31 Kendrick 2-AAA 2-1 29.22 22.69 341
280 25 Lincoln County 7-Div B-A 1-2 29.16 38.98 223
281 26 Johnson County 3-Div B-A 1-2 29.13 29.37 305
282 27 George Walton Academy 8-A 1-2 29.05 32.99 269
283 55 Stone Mountain 6-AAAA 0-3 28.92 58.10 72
284 32 Sonoraville 6-AAA 2-1 28.86 27.22 316
285 75 Columbus 1-AAAAA 2-1 28.80 29.67 304
286 76 Woodland (Cartersville) 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-3 28.77 44.49 171
287 35 Dade County 7-AA 1-2 28.51 43.40 186
288 33 Oconee County 8-AAA 3-0 28.49 14.59 369
289 28 Turner County 2-A 2-1 27.92 21.05 351
290 34 Pepperell 5-AAA 0-3 27.87 42.93 192
291 29 Greenville 4-A 2-0 27.87 11.59 381
292 35 Towers 4-Div A-AAA 0-3 27.81 43.86 183
293 30 Claxton 3-Div A-A 1-1 27.54 27.45 315
294 36 Union County 8-AA 3-0 27.52 8.47 393
295 56 Henry County 4-Div A-AAAA 1-2 27.50 63.89 39
296 36 Central (Macon) 2-AAA 2-1 27.46 23.24 336
297 37 North Clayton 4-Div A-AAA 0-3 27.22 46.39 154
298 31 Telfair County 2-A 3-0 27.18 12.76 378
299 37 Bremen 5-AA 1-2 27.09 30.45 293
300 38 Glenn Hills 3-AAA 0-3 26.96 58.45 70
301 39 Southwest 2-AAA 1-2 26.88 52.18 103
302 32 Hancock Central 7-Div B-A 2-1 26.80 22.38 345
303 40 Johnson (Savannah) 1-Div B-AAA 0-3 26.62 44.45 173
304 41 Jackson County 8-AAA 0-3 26.59 37.29 234
305 33 Pinecrest Academy 6-Div B-A 2-0 26.56 15.89 366
306 42 Rutland 2-AAA 0-3 26.31 41.37 203
307 34 Mount Zion (Carroll) 6-Div A-A 3-1 26.22 12.94 377
308 38 Long County 2-AA 1-1 26.09 32.60 273
309 57 Walnut Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 2-1 26.05 31.13 287
310 35 Christian Heritage 6-Div A-A 1-2 25.83 33.85 260
311 77 Apalachee 8-AAAAA 0-3 25.80 41.33 204
312 43 Dawson County 7-AAA 0-3 25.56 37.29 235
313 36 Mitchell County 1-A 1-2 25.00 30.11 299
314 58 Heritage (Ringgold) 7-AAAA 2-1 24.78 27.09 319
315 78 Morrow 4-Div A-AAAAA 1-2 24.02 38.91 225
316 59 Southeast Whitfield 7-AAAA 3-0 23.97 -4.07 413
317 39 Bryan County 2-AA 1-2 23.80 25.90 328
318 44 Rockmart 5-AAA 1-2 23.67 27.03 321
319 37 Mount de Sales 7-Div A-A 1-1 23.16 23.06 337
320 79 Greenbrier 2-AAAAA 1-2 23.01 46.29 156
321 45 Lumpkin County 7-AAA 1-2 23.00 26.06 327
322 38 Taylor County 4-A 0-2-1 22.81 30.40 297
323 39 Athens Christian 8-A 1-2 22.33 20.46 353
324 46 Franklin County 7-AAA 0-2 22.07 54.25 94
325 63 Habersham Central 6-AAAAAA 0-3 21.61 47.67 141
326 47 Therrell 4-Div B-AAA 1-2 21.61 33.24 266
327 60 LaFayette 7-AAAA 2-1 21.44 16.90 364
328 48 South Atlanta 4-Div A-AAA 1-2 21.39 35.13 252
329 49 Fannin County 7-AAA 2-1 21.05 6.30 398
330 40 Athens Academy 8-A 1-1 20.57 5.74 400
331 50 North Murray 6-AAA 1-2 20.52 22.43 344
332 51 Beach 1-Div B-AAA 2-2 20.33 22.08 348
333 40 Monticello 4-AA 0-3 20.31 33.57 263
334 80 Forest Park 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-3 20.18 43.94 182
335 41 Whitefield Academy 6-Div B-A 1-2 19.89 23.00 339
336 52 Spencer 2-AAA 0-2 19.87 47.17 145
338 61 Albany 1-Div A-AAAA 0-2 19.60 39.42 219
337 42 Miller County 1-A 0-3 19.60 42.71 194
339 53 Southeast Bulloch 1-Div B-AAA 0-3 19.45 34.42 255
340 43 Wilkinson County 7-Div A-A 0-3 19.44 33.89 259
341 44 Jenkins County 3-Div A-A 3-0 19.40 11.50 382
342 64 Meadowcreek 7-AAAAAA 1-2 19.13 44.44 174
343 45 Portal 3-Div A-A 2-1 18.79 17.30 362
344 54 Banks County 7-AAA 2-1 18.61 14.37 371
345 46 Walker 6-Div A-A 1-2 18.51 26.90 322
346 41 Greene County 8-AA 1-2 17.73 27.12 318
347 47 Calhoun County 1-A 2-2 17.48 23.45 334
348 48 King's Ridge Christian #N/A 0-2 17.34 28.16 312
349 42 Putnam County 4-AA 1-3 17.16 22.32 346
350 43 East Laurens 3-AA 1-1-1 17.14 13.89 373
351 81 Cross Creek 2-AAAAA 1-2 17.01 46.63 151
352 55 Douglass 4-Div B-AAA 2-1 16.94 8.50 392
353 62 Dougherty 1-Div B-AAAA 1-1 16.79 14.81 367
354 56 McNair 4-Div A-AAA 1-2 16.78 18.26 359
355 49 Savannah Country Day 3-Div A-A 0-3 16.52 41.80 200
356 57 Jordan 2-AAA 1-2 16.23 23.04 338
357 63 Redan 6-AAAA 0-3 16.09 31.93 280
358 44 Groves 2-AA 3-0 15.96 -1.38 411
359 58 Savannah 1-Div B-AAA 1-3 15.16 31.98 279
361 82 North Atlanta 7-Div B-AAAAA 1-2 14.99 28.69 310
360 50 Atkinson County 2-A 3-0 14.99 0.44 408
362 45 Chattooga 7-AA 1-2 14.75 22.89 340
363 59 Haralson County 5-AAA 0-2 14.40 27.05 320
364 51 Terrell County 1-A 0-2 13.89 35.22 249
365 46 Gordon Lee 7-AA 1-3 13.78 21.76 350
366 83 North Springs 7-Div B-AAAAA 0-3 13.61 33.61 261
367 60 Brantley County 1-Div A-AAA 1-2 12.56 16.78 365
369 52 Strong Rock Christian 5-A 2-1 12.44 18.78 357
368 47 Hapeville 6-AA 1-2 12.44 22.62 342
370 84 Hardaway 1-AAAAA 0-4 12.27 33.50 264
371 53 Randolph-Clay 1-A 2-2 12.14 18.44 358
372 64 Johnson (Gainesville) 8-AAAA† 0-4 11.81 31.45 282
373 65 Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4-Div B-AAAA 0-2 11.49 25.59 330
374 48 Chattahoochee County 5-AA 1-1 11.43 14.71 368
375 49 Riverside Military Academy 8-AA 1-1 11.40 9.90 389
376 54 Lanier County 2-A 1-2 11.05 14.53 370
377 66 Hampton 4-Div A-AAAA 0-2 10.04 64.46 37
378 55 Treutlen 3-Div B-A 0-3 9.10 21.81 349
379 56 Montgomery County 3-Div B-A 2-1 8.53 5.67 401
380 57 Schley County 4-A 1-1 8.44 5.56 402
381 61 Hephzibah 3-AAA 1-1 8.13 2.91 404
382 85 Clarkston 6-Div A-AAAAA† 0-4 8.10 34.30 256
383 58 Georgia Military College 7-Div B-A 1-2 8.00 19.87 355
384 62 Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6-AAA 1-2 7.89 11.02 384
385 59 St. Francis 6-Div B-A 2-0 7.74 -20.96 417
386 63 Gordon Central 6-AAA 0-3 7.26 33.40 265
387 60 Fellowship Christian 6-Div B-A 1-2 7.00 8.94 390
388 61 Hebron Christian Academy 8-A 2-1 6.51 6.04 399
389 64 Josey 3-AAA 1-2 6.36 17.19 363
390 65 Butler 3-AAA 0-1 5.63 6.54 397
391 67 Windsor Forest 3-AAAA 0-3 4.65 17.31 361
392 50 Temple 5-AA 2-1 4.50 -7.18 415
393 62 Warren County 7-Div B-A 2-2 4.47 10.33 386
394 51 Oglethorpe County 8-AA 0-2 3.91 36.45 239
395 52 Jeff Davis 2-AA 1-2 3.61 2.51 405
396 63 Wheeler County 3-Div B-A 1-2 2.21 10.14 388
397 66 East Jackson 8-AAA 1-2 1.04 5.19 403
398 53 Harlem 3-AA 0-3 0.82 20.00 354
399 54 Armuchee 7-AA 1-3 0.57 13.10 376
400 64 Central (Talbotton) 4-A 2-1 -0.08 0.48 407
401 65 Twiggs County 7-Div A-A 0-2 -3.16 29.82 303
402 67 Islands 1-Div B-AAA 1-2 -3.34 8.26 395
403 55 Crawford County 4-AA† 2-2 -4.88 -4.29 414
404 68 New Hampstead 3-AAAA† 0-4 -5.16 18.02 360
405 66 Towns County 8-A 1-2 -6.39 0.16 409
406 56 K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6-AA 1-2 -6.60 11.10 383
407 68 Coahulla Creek 6-AAA 0-3 -8.03 10.41 385
408 67 Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5-A 1-3 -8.41 -0.57 410
409 68 Lakeview Academy 8-A 0-3 -10.10 0.97 406
410 69 Murray County 6-AAA 0-2 -10.49 22.51 343
411 69 Glascock County 7-Div B-A† 0-4 -10.85 10.22 387
412 70 Baconton 1-A 0-4 -16.76 13.29 374
413 71 Stewart County 1-A† 0-3 -17.08 8.51 391
414 57 Social Circle 8-AA 0-2 -17.45 8.47 394
415 72 North Cobb Christian 6-Div A-A† 1-2 -22.68 -10.22 416
416 69 Cross Keys 6-AAAA† 0-2 -30.17 -2.87 412
417 73 Providence Christian 8-A 0-2 -31.47 13.98 372
†-Plays non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition. Each region's record is its record against outside competition while the region's schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against its outside opponents.

Rank Region Competitive Average Record Sch Str
1 1-AAAAAA 97.65 80.46 22-0 51.35
2 7-AAAAAA 88.87 68.73 12-12 67.49
3 8-AAAAAA 85.63 68.42 7-11 75.75
4 4-AAAAAA 83.91 68.05 14-12 65.37
5 5-AAAAAA 83.20 66.16 12-6 61.00
6 5-AAAA 81.31 62.66 11-8 56.07
7 2-AAAAAA 81.09 56.42 12-8 44.02
8 3-AAAAAA 75.42 57.43 13-10 55.57
9 3-AAAAA 74.06 55.85 10-7 47.98
10 5-AAAAA 70.98 52.89 8-2 46.71
11 6-AAAAAA 68.50 51.19 1-9 62.05
12 6-AAAAA 68.42 52.17 14-10 48.65
6-Div B-AAAAA 73.23 55.87 9-7 53.22
6-Div A-AAAAA 63.98 49.15 10-8 47.10
13 8-AAAAA 68.25 49.00 3-7 53.75
14 2-AAAAA 68.14 46.52 7-2-1 31.30
15 8-AAAA 65.15 47.02 9-12 48.88
16 1-AAAA 63.96 44.75 8-12 44.45
1-Div A-AAAA 67.81 46.29 4-9 49.89
1-Div B-AAAA 60.26 43.55 7-6 42.11
17 6-AAAA 63.86 44.98 6-12 49.47
18 8-AAA 63.86 40.40 15-7 31.72
19 3-AAAA 63.74 48.29 6-12 49.15
20 1-AA 63.39 45.55 11-8-1 40.76
21 7-AAAAA 62.27 42.77 10-13 51.01
7-Div B-AAAAA 64.85 41.86 13-8 39.67
7-Div A-AAAAA 60.23 43.43 6-14 52.50
22 6-AA 61.88 37.66 12-12 39.82
23 1-AAAAA 61.42 40.20 8-14 42.77
24 7-AAAA 61.04 41.22 16-5 29.09
25 2-AAAA 61.01 45.47 11-10-1 46.23
26 4-AAAAA 60.83 44.35 11-11 42.32
4-Div B-AAAAA 63.62 47.91 13-8 37.72
4-Div A-AAAAA 58.02 40.75 5-10 43.95
27 4-AAA 59.15 34.91 10-12 48.25
4-Div B-AAA 67.28 41.93 11-7 42.08
4-Div A-AAA 49.32 29.85 6-12 39.30
28 3-AAA 58.77 25.78 7-9-1 38.80
29 4-AAAA 58.56 37.01 8-11 46.56
4-Div B-AAAA 63.29 38.11 7-10 41.21
4-Div A-AAAA 55.67 35.86 7-7 43.38
30 5-AAA 56.64 35.01 6-11 38.91
31 6-AAA 56.36 21.98 8-10 27.60
32 2-AAA 56.16 32.20 10-8 34.81
33 2-AA 53.44 29.81 11-11 29.27
34 4-A 50.74 32.26 13-1-1 22.37
35 3-AA 49.35 31.22 9-12-1 33.77
36 4-AA 48.91 32.62 5-13-1 35.46
37 1-AAA 48.81 30.03 8-11 33.87
1-Div A-AAA 53.75 37.59 10-5 29.48
1-Div B-AAA 39.32 20.42 5-13 32.52
38 5-AA 48.13 27.99 8-9 28.68
39 5-A 47.42 26.55 7-6 16.82
40 2-A 47.09 29.74 15-8-1 24.64
41 7-AAA 46.54 27.45 9-10 31.84
42 3-A 45.44 23.94 13-8 22.35
3-Div A-A 48.55 28.58 10-4 22.38
3-Div B-A 40.52 17.26 7-8 19.59
43 7-A 43.10 25.04 13-11 25.94
7-Div A-A 43.49 26.31 7-7 24.32
7-Div B-A 42.47 23.23 9-7 24.96
44 7-AA 42.10 24.31 11-13 25.36
45 6-A 40.61 24.06 16-7 15.08
6-Div A-A 43.02 29.03 11-5 21.47
6-Div B-A 37.86 19.42 8-5 13.48
46 8-AA 39.93 18.42 9-10 24.86
47 8-A 36.80 14.11 6-11 13.39
48 1-A 27.74 13.73 5-15 26.04

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
8/29 Callaway B.E.S.T. Academy 7 - 14 10.90 74.8% 0.317
9/5 Monroe Area Walnut Grove 18 - 23 11.24 75.5% 0.319
8/22 Lamar County Howard 19 - 19 18.85 86.8% 0.338
9/12 Campbell Lakeside (Atlanta) 38 - 42 9.48 72.1% 0.353
8/22 Athens Christian Strong Rock Christian 7 - 8 10.06 73.2% 0.357
8/29 Southeast Whitfield Murray County 22 - 21 34.29 96.9% 0.365
9/5 Cook Berrien 14 - 21 7.19 67.2% 0.382
8/29 North Gwinnett North Cobb 29 - 36 6.89 66.6% 0.387
8/22 South Forsyth Mountain View 31 - 38 6.46 65.6% 0.394
9/5 Appling County Jenkins 20 - 23 6.73 66.2% 0.402
9/12 Metter Long County 20 - 28 4.50 61.1% 0.426
8/29 Northeast Southwest 16 - 20 4.18 60.3% 0.440
9/5 Starr's Mill Fayette County 14 - 21 3.65 59.0% 0.443
9/12 Walton Roswell 15 - 27 3.01 57.5% 0.447
9/12 Lambert Centennial 21 - 28 2.95 57.3% 0.454

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
89.91 11/7 Colquitt County Camden County 8.60 70.3%
89.78 10/3 Colquitt County Lowndes 8.74 70.6%
87.41 10/10 Lowndes Camden County 0.03 50.1%
86.44 9/5 Buford McEachern 27 - 20 10.69 74.4%
85.09 8/23 North Gwinnett McEachern 52 - 49 2.80 56.9%
85.07 10/03 North Gwinnett Norcross 2.95 57.3%
84.41 10/24 Grayson Dacula 4.45 60.9%
84.04 9/5 Milton Norcross 26 - 0 0.46 51.1%
83.79 9/19 McEachern Lovejoy 0.19 50.5%
82.16 8/29 North Gwinnett North Cobb 29 - 36 6.89 66.6%
81.57 10/10 McEachern North Cobb 3.76 59.3%
81.52 8/22 Northside (Warner Robins) North Cobb 38 - 20 4.14 60.2%
81.47 10/31 Lowndes Valdosta 8.26 69.6%
81.41 8/23 Norcross Tucker 32 - 29 4.14 60.2%
81.35 10/3 Camden County Valdosta 8.75 70.6%
81.35 10/31 Lovejoy Tucker 3.93 59.7%

About the Author

Todd Holcomb

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