Sports

Maxwell Round Two Summary: Parity edging in

By Loren Maxwell
Nov 23, 2015

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 417 teams throughout the 2015 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results from this past week:

- In Class AAAAAA all three dark horses fell this past week leaving Grayson, Colquitt County, Roswell, Archer, and Mill Creek as the remaining legitimate contenders. Although Grayson and Colquitt County lead the pack, all have greater than a 5% chance.

- Class AAAAA has six remaining teams with greater than 5% chance of winning the championship. Northgate surged past Stockbridge to become the slight favorite due to their big victory over previously undefeated Lanier.  However, Stockbridge defeated Northgate 20-2 just a couple of weeks ago to close the regular season.

- Woodward Academy, Cartersville, Buford, and Bainbridge all continue to stand above the field in Class AAAA. Still, the other four teams combine for a 7.4% chance of winning and every remaining team has at least a 1% chance.

- Blessed Trinity pushed past Calhoun both in the ratings and the playoff odds although Calhoun and Cedar Grove remain strong contenders for the title. Cedar Grove's rating is roughly a touchdown below the other two, but their favorable draw gives them over a 70% chance of being in the championship game.

- Benedictine hangs on to the top rating just barely over Greater Atlanta Christian, a team they beat to open the season. However, GAC is slightly ahead of Benedictine on the championship odds due to their easier path.

- In Class A Public, although Clinch County is a somewhat heavy favorite with a 38.8% chance of winning the championship, seven of the remaining eight teams have a greater than 5% chance of claiming the title as well.

- In the one remaining playoff race where there is an overwhelming favorite, Prince Avenue Christian holds a 64.8% chance of being crowned champion in Class A Private, however, both ELCA and Aquinas have over a 15% chance as well.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 0.11%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 2,004 of 2,192 total games including 2 tie(s) (91.47%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.05 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.

Home Advantage: 1.71

By Class

AAAAAA AAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Grayson 12-0 98.55 1 Northgate 11-1 75.14
2 Colquitt County 12-0 95.70 2 Stockbridge 12-0 73.71
3 Roswell 12-0 93.24 3 Houston County 11-1 69.90
4 Archer 11-1 92.74 4 Allatoona 11-1 68.96
5 Mill Creek 12-0 89.00 5 Mays 10-2 68.20
6 McEachern 10-2 81.34 6 Glynn Academy 10-2 67.77
7 Camden County 10-2 79.31 7 Ware County 10-2 67.52
8 Peachtree Ridge 8-4 78.39 8 Stephenson 9-2 66.82
9 Lowndes 6-5 71.22 9 Starr's Mill 10-2 65.27
10 Central Gwinnett 7-5 70.55 10 Drew 9-3 64.49
11 Valdosta 8-4 69.67 11 Lanier 11-1 63.70
12 Walton 9-2 69.37 12 Coffee 10-2 63.37
13 South Forsyth 11-1 67.81 13 Northside (Warner Robins) 9-2 61.88
14 Collins Hill 7-5 66.88 14 Jones County 9-2 61.73
15 Etowah 8-3 66.69 15 Dalton 9-3 61.59
AAAA AAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Woodward Academy 12-0 75.99 1 Blessed Trinity 11-0-1 69.29
2 Buford 11-1 71.48 2 Calhoun 12-0 69.08
3 Cartersville 12-0 70.29 3 Cedar Grove 10-1-1 62.72
4 Bainbridge 12-0 68.35 4 Jefferson 10-2 56.62
5 Sandy Creek 9-3 63.69 5 Elbert County 10-2 50.23
6 St. Pius X 10-2 61.21 6 Adairsville 11-1 50.20
7 Marist 10-2 60.68 7 Peach County 9-3 48.27
8 Thomson 11-1 59.92 8 Westminster (Atlanta) 8-4 45.52
9 Jonesboro 11-1 58.01 9 Oconee County 9-3 45.48
10 Worth County 8-4 56.31 10 Westside (Macon) 9-3 45.01
11 Spalding 10-2 55.40 11 Jackson 9-3 44.05
12 Mary Persons 11-1 54.69 12 Dodge County 11-1 44.02
13 Liberty County 8-4 52.24 13 Callaway 10-2 43.05
14 Carrollton 6-6 51.57 14 Hart County 7-4 42.29
15 Burke County 7-4 49.33 15 Spencer 8-4 41.09
AA A
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Benedictine 12-0 64.64 1 Prince Avenue Christian 11-0 64.30
2 Greater Atlanta Christian 11-1 64.10 2 Eagle's Landing Christian 8-3 55.96
3 Fitzgerald 11-1 55.24 3 Aquinas 10-1 49.61
4 Rabun County 11-1 52.34 4 Mount Paran Christian 10-1 46.83
5 Brooks County 10-2 50.14 5 Clinch County 10-1 44.43
6 Pace Academy 10-2 50.06 6 Pinecrest Academy 10-1 41.99
7 Jefferson County 10-2 48.96 7 Emanuel County Institute 10-1 39.90
8 Wesleyan 9-3 48.82 8 Trion 8-3 39.57
9 Lovett 6-6 47.67 9 Irwin County 8-2-1 39.16
10 Macon County 10-2 42.29 10 Stratford Academy 8-3 36.88
11 Darlington 10-1 40.61 11 Commerce 8-3 36.60
12 Early County 7-4-1 39.64 12 Charlton County 7-3 34.95
13 Screven County 10-2 39.53 13 Marion County 10-1 34.85
14 Hapeville 6-4 37.77 14 Turner County 8-3 33.81
15 Model 9-2 36.93 15 Mount Zion (Carroll) 8-3 33.50

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Grayson 8-AAAAAA 12-0 98.55 59.94 17
2 [2] Colquitt County 1-AAAAAA 12-0 95.70 59.59 19
3 [3] Roswell 5-AAAAAA 12-0 93.24 56.26 23
4 [4] Archer 8-AAAAAA 11-1 92.74 64.09 9
5 [5] Mill Creek 7-AAAAAA 12-0 89.00 56.68 21
6 [6] McEachern 4-AAAAAA 10-2 81.34 57.87 20
7 [7] Camden County 1-AAAAAA 10-2 79.31 63.75 10
8 [8] Peachtree Ridge 7-AAAAAA 8-4 78.39 63.52 11
9 [1] Woodward Academy 5-AAAA 12-0 75.99 39.87 131
10 [1] Northgate 4-Div A-AAAAA 11-1 75.14 42.72 106
11 [2] Stockbridge 4-Div B-AAAAA 12-0 73.71 40.66 121
12 [2] Buford 8-AAAA 11-1 71.48 27.95 251
13 [9] Lowndes 1-AAAAAA 6-5 71.22 70.29 1
14 [10] Central Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 7-5 70.55 65.68 7
15 [3] Cartersville 7-AAAA 12-0 70.29 33.15 198
16 [3] Houston County 2-AAAAA 11-1 69.90 38.73 146
17 [11] Valdosta 1-AAAAAA 8-4 69.67 60.15 15
18 [12] Walton 5-AAAAAA 9-2 69.37 52.96 35
19 [1] Blessed Trinity 4-Div B-AAA 11-0-1 69.29 39.71 135
20 [2] Calhoun 6-AAA 12-0 69.08 21.93 305
21 [4] Allatoona 5-AAAAA 11-1 68.96 44.32 96
22 [4] Bainbridge 1-Div B-AAAA 12-0 68.35 41.82 114
23 [5] Mays 6-Div B-AAAAA 10-2 68.20 45.76 78
24 [13] South Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 11-1 67.81 45.88 77
25 [6] Glynn Academy 3-AAAAA 10-2 67.77 51.83 39
26 [7] Ware County 3-AAAAA 10-2 67.52 47.78 58
27 [14] Collins Hill 7-AAAAAA 7-5 66.88 60.12 16
28 [8] Stephenson 6-Div A-AAAAA 9-2 66.82 36.50 167
29 [15] Etowah 5-AAAAAA 8-3 66.69 53.50 33
30 [16] Dacula 8-AAAAAA 5-5 66.52 68.32 2
31 [17] Westlake 3-AAAAAA 10-2 66.31 42.65 108
32 [18] Norcross 7-AAAAAA 7-4 65.76 59.86 18
33 [9] Starr's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 10-2 65.27 40.71 120
34 [19] Lee County 1-AAAAAA 6-4 65.18 54.80 28
35 [20] Parkview 8-AAAAAA 6-5 65.00 66.49 6
36 [1] Benedictine 2-AA 12-0 64.64 28.01 249
37 [10] Drew 4-Div A-AAAAA 9-3 64.49 45.11 82
38 [1] Prince Avenue Christian 8-A 11-0 64.30 13.24 376
39 [2] Greater Atlanta Christian 6-AA 11-1 64.10 37.09 160
40 [11] Lanier 8-AAAAA 11-1 63.70 42.09 112
41 [5] Sandy Creek 5-AAAA 9-3 63.69 44.32 97
42 [12] Coffee 3-AAAAA 10-2 63.37 43.57 102
43 [21] Newton 2-AAAAAA 9-3 63.28 46.41 73
44 [3] Cedar Grove 4-Div A-AAA 10-1-1 62.72 27.19 257
45 [13] Northside (Warner Robins) 2-AAAAA 9-2 61.88 40.37 127
46 [14] Jones County 2-AAAAA 9-2 61.73 36.05 178
47 [15] Dalton 7-Div A-AAAAA 9-3 61.59 49.16 50
48 [6] St. Pius X 6-AAAA 10-2 61.21 37.62 155
49 [22] Brookwood 8-AAAAAA 4-6 61.11 68.13 4
50 [7] Marist 6-AAAA 10-2 60.68 36.03 179
51 [8] Thomson 3-AAAA 11-1 59.92 36.61 163
52 [16] Rome 7-Div A-AAAAA 8-4 59.62 50.41 48
53 [23] Newnan 3-AAAAAA 9-3 59.52 47.90 57
54 [17] Kell 7-Div B-AAAAA 9-3 59.12 47.37 61
55 [18] Creekside 6-Div B-AAAAA 8-3 58.87 44.69 88
56 [24] North Gwinnett 7-AAAAAA 5-5 58.77 62.58 13
57 [25] Tucker 2-AAAAAA 8-4 58.39 40.31 128
58 [9] Jonesboro 4-Div B-AAAA 11-1 58.01 40.41 126
59 [19] Creekview 7-Div A-AAAAA 7-4 57.36 52.88 36
60 [20] Effingham County 3-AAAAA 7-3 57.21 48.09 56
61 [26] Tift County 1-AAAAAA 5-5 56.95 50.82 46
62 [27] West Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 7-4 56.94 48.24 55
63 [28] Hillgrove 4-AAAAAA 6-5 56.93 54.57 29
64 [4] Jefferson 8-AAA 10-2 56.62 39.22 139
65 [29] Shiloh 8-AAAAAA 3-7 56.34 65.50 8
66 [10] Worth County 1-Div B-AAAA 8-4 56.31 47.31 64
67 [21] South Paulding 5-AAAAA 9-3 56.26 44.50 92
68 [30] North Cobb 4-AAAAAA 5-6 56.14 54.44 31
69 [2] Eagle's Landing Christian 5-A 8-3 55.96 27.40 254
70 [31] Lambert 6-AAAAAA 8-3 55.85 46.83 70
71 [22] East Paulding 5-AAAAA 8-3 55.55 45.22 81
72 [11] Spalding 4-Div B-AAAA 10-2 55.40 34.65 187
73 [3] Fitzgerald 1-AA 11-1 55.24 32.78 202
74 [23] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4-Div B-AAAAA 7-3 55.02 36.64 162
75 [12] Mary Persons 2-AAAA 11-1 54.69 39.78 133
76 [32] Lassiter 5-AAAAAA 5-5 54.42 56.11 24
77 [33] Wheeler 5-AAAAAA 5-6 54.00 54.57 30
78 [24] Gainesville 8-AAAAA 8-4 53.34 43.82 100
79 [34] East Coweta 3-AAAAAA 8-3 53.18 41.20 117
80 [25] South Effingham 3-AAAAA 7-4 52.90 46.30 74
81 [35] South Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 2-8 52.64 67.37 5
82 [4] Rabun County 8-AA 11-1 52.34 21.27 313
83 [13] Liberty County 3-AAAA 8-4 52.24 43.63 101
84 [26] Alexander 5-AAAAA 8-3 52.07 42.69 107
85 [27] Dutchtown 4-Div B-AAAAA 5-5 52.01 51.60 41
86 [36] Hughes 3-AAAAAA 5-6 51.87 53.02 34
87 [14] Carrollton 5-AAAA 6-6 51.57 47.21 66
88 [28] Carver (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 9-2 51.51 39.71 136
89 [29] Carver (Atlanta) 6-Div B-AAAAA 7-4 51.33 40.23 129
90 [30] Riverwood 7-Div B-AAAAA 7-3 50.94 36.52 166
91 [37] Milton 5-AAAAAA 4-6 50.80 55.18 27
92 [5] Elbert County 8-AAA 10-2 50.23 37.76 151
93 [31] Cambridge 7-Div B-AAAAA 7-3 50.22 39.20 140
94 [6] Adairsville 6-AAA 11-1 50.20 18.13 342
95 [5] Brooks County 1-AA 10-2 50.14 29.17 239
96 [6] Pace Academy 6-AA 10-2 50.06 32.16 208
97 [38] Lovejoy 2-AAAAAA 5-6 49.68 51.64 40
98 [3] Aquinas 7-Div B-A 10-1 49.61 15.39 362
99 [39] North Paulding 4-AAAAAA 3-8 49.56 62.61 12
100 [40] Mountain View 7-AAAAAA 3-7 49.51 60.44 14
101 [41] Harrison 4-AAAAAA 5-5 49.34 47.42 60
102 [15] Burke County 3-AAAA 7-4 49.33 44.34 95
103 [32] Loganville 8-AAAAA 8-3 49.21 36.22 174
104 [7] Jefferson County 3-AA 10-2 48.96 26.67 262
105 [8] Wesleyan 6-AA 9-3 48.82 34.25 189
106 [16] West Laurens 2-AAAA 8-4 48.68 38.92 142
107 [7] Peach County 2-AAA 9-3 48.27 31.58 212
108 [33] Paulding County 5-AAAAA 7-3 48.17 41.69 115
109 [17] Locust Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 9-2 48.15 30.31 222
110 [34] Warner Robins 2-AAAAA 7-4 48.15 40.65 122
111 [35] Sequoyah 7-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 47.83 52.21 37
112 [9] Lovett 6-AA 6-6 47.67 44.39 93
113 [4] Mount Paran Christian 6-Div A-A 10-1 46.83 25.22 274
114 [36] Cass 7-Div A-AAAAA 6-4 46.82 40.53 124
115 [37] Mundy's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 5-5 46.65 44.02 99
116 [18] Upson-Lee 2-AAAA 8-3 46.29 34.90 185
117 [42] Northview 6-AAAAAA 6-5 46.06 44.82 86
118 [43] Cherokee 5-AAAAAA 4-6 45.95 51.24 44
119 [19] Thomas County Central 1-Div A-AAAA 6-5 45.88 43.50 104
120 [44] Centennial 6-AAAAAA 5-5 45.61 47.48 59
121 [8] Westminster (Atlanta) 4-Div B-AAA 8-4 45.52 33.28 195
122 [9] Oconee County 8-AAA 9-3 45.48 29.79 232
123 [10] Westside (Macon) 2-AAA 9-3 45.01 33.23 197
124 [20] Cairo 1-Div A-AAAA 4-6 44.97 47.36 62
125 [5] Clinch County 2-A 10-1 44.43 17.97 344
126 [45] Woodstock 5-AAAAAA 4-6 44.37 51.31 43
127 [46] Marietta 4-AAAAAA 3-7 44.31 55.81 26
128 [11] Jackson 2-AAA 9-3 44.05 29.31 236
129 [12] Dodge County 1-Div A-AAA 11-1 44.02 21.62 308
130 [47] Alpharetta 6-AAAAAA 5-5 43.85 44.93 83
131 [21] Wayne County 3-AAAA 3-8 43.15 52.17 38
132 [13] Callaway 5-AAA 10-2 43.05 28.13 248
133 [22] Monroe 1-Div A-AAAA 6-4 43.00 37.63 154
134 [38] Flowery Branch 8-AAAAA 6-4 42.46 34.04 191
135 [10] Macon County 4-AA 10-2 42.29 26.80 261
136 [14] Hart County 8-AAA 7-4 42.29 36.38 170
137 [23] Eagle's Landing 4-Div A-AAAA 6-4 42.04 36.44 169
138 [39] Winder-Barrow 8-AAAAA 6-5 42.03 42.10 111
139 [6] Pinecrest Academy 6-Div B-A 10-1 41.99 21.06 316
140 [40] New Manchester 5-AAAAA 5-5 41.89 42.43 110
141 [24] Griffin 4-Div B-AAAA 6-5 41.86 36.48 168
142 [25] Eastside 4-Div A-AAAA 7-3 41.86 30.16 224
143 [26] Grady 6-AAAA 7-5 41.28 36.14 176
144 [15] Spencer 2-AAA 8-4 41.09 33.56 192
145 [41] LaGrange 1-AAAAA 5-5 40.92 38.88 145
146 [42] Northside (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 6-4 40.84 37.53 156
147 [27] Veterans 2-AAAA 4-7 40.68 46.74 71
148 [11] Darlington 7-AA 10-1 40.61 21.70 307
149 [28] Stephens County 8-AAAA 8-3 40.25 29.67 234
150 [43] Sprayberry 7-Div B-AAAAA 5-5 39.93 39.65 137
151 [7] Emanuel County Institute 3-Div B-A 10-1 39.90 10.30 392
152 [44] Brunswick 3-AAAAA 3-7 39.81 51.38 42
153 [12] Early County 1-AA 7-4-1 39.64 29.00 241
154 [8] Trion 6-Div A-A 8-3 39.57 21.38 312
155 [13] Screven County 3-AA 10-2 39.53 20.24 322
156 [29] Howard 2-AAAA 6-4 39.20 35.68 180
157 [9] Irwin County 2-A 8-2-1 39.16 23.43 291
158 [30] Crisp County 1-Div A-AAAA 3-7 38.90 50.85 45
159 [16] Central (Carrollton) 5-AAA 9-2 38.70 24.24 283
160 [17] Central (Macon) 2-AAA 6-4 38.23 29.78 233
161 [48] Johns Creek 6-AAAAAA 4-6 37.86 44.93 84
162 [14] Hapeville 6-AA 6-4 37.77 26.46 263
163 [45] Lakeside (Evans) 2-AAAAA 5-5 37.73 36.59 165
164 [46] Columbus 1-AAAAA 7-4 37.69 33.43 194
165 [47] Miller Grove 6-Div A-AAAAA 6-4 37.37 32.54 204
166 [15] Model 7-AA 9-2 36.93 24.59 281
167 [10] Stratford Academy 7-Div A-A 8-3 36.88 20.25 321
168 [31] North Hall 8-AAAA 6-5 36.84 33.47 193
169 [48] Clarke Central 8-AAAAA 4-6 36.80 38.90 143
170 [18] Cook 1-Div A-AAA 7-4 36.70 28.78 244
171 [11] Commerce 8-A 8-3 36.60 19.17 330
172 [49] Salem 8-AAAAA 5-5 36.56 35.38 182
173 [32] Westover 1-Div B-AAAA 2-7 36.53 48.81 52
174 [50] Ola 4-Div B-AAAAA 4-6 36.38 39.71 134
175 [16] Vidalia 2-AA 8-4 36.38 23.54 289
176 [51] Southwest DeKalb 6-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 35.96 43.54 103
177 [19] Laney 3-AAA 8-3 35.61 13.68 372
178 [52] Tri-Cities 6-Div B-AAAAA 6-4 35.57 30.07 226
179 [33] Arabia Mountain 6-AAAA 4-6 35.42 40.63 123
180 [17] Heard County 5-AA 8-4 35.34 24.05 288
181 [34] Columbia 6-AAAA 5-6 35.27 37.41 158
182 [35] Pickens 7-AAAA 8-3 35.25 25.20 275
183 [49] South Cobb 3-AAAAAA 3-7 35.18 44.62 90
184 [53] M. L. King 6-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 35.12 42.03 113
185 [54] Shaw 1-AAAAA 5-6 35.00 37.81 150
186 [12] Charlton County 2-A 7-3 34.95 23.12 294
187 [50] Meadowcreek 7-AAAAAA 3-7 34.85 55.98 25
188 [13] Marion County 4-A 10-1 34.85 10.23 393
189 [55] Richmond Hill 3-AAAAA 3-7 34.73 48.43 54
190 [14] Turner County 2-A 8-3 33.81 19.39 329
191 [56] Forsyth Central 7-Div B-AAAAA 4-6 33.58 36.14 175
192 [57] Villa Rica 5-AAAAA 2-8 33.52 47.24 65
193 [15] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6-Div A-A 8-3 33.50 19.61 328
194 [18] Lamar County 4-AA 7-4 33.38 25.75 268
195 [58] Luella 4-Div B-AAAAA 4-6 33.31 37.47 157
196 [36] Northwest Whitfield 7-AAAA 7-4 33.29 25.52 271
197 [20] Pierce County 1-Div A-AAA 7-4 33.11 27.85 252
198 [16] Savannah Christian 3-Div A-A 9-2 33.11 13.47 374
199 [21] Sonoraville 6-AAA 8-4 32.97 18.53 337
200 [59] Chapel Hill 5-AAAAA 2-8 32.96 45.98 75
201 [51] Pebblebrook 3-AAAAAA 4-6 32.90 38.53 148
202 [60] Statesboro 3-AAAAA 2-8 32.89 50.66 47
203 [52] North Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 2-8 32.84 45.53 79
204 [22] Southeast Bulloch 1-Div B-AAA 7-4 32.44 22.46 300
205 [37] Lithonia 6-AAAA 6-4 32.30 28.31 247
206 [17] Christian Heritage 6-Div A-A 6-5 32.18 30.86 217
207 [53] Kennesaw Mountain 4-AAAAAA 2-8 32.11 47.34 63
208 [23] Decatur 4-Div B-AAA 6-4 32.05 27.29 256
209 [18] Landmark Christian 5-A 7-4 31.91 21.16 314
210 [54] Douglas County 3-AAAAAA 2-8 31.76 44.23 98
211 [38] Americus-Sumter 1-Div B-AAAA 3-7 31.63 39.88 130
212 [19] Athens Academy 8-A 9-2 31.49 8.50 403
213 [39] Perry 2-AAAA 2-8 31.33 44.38 94
214 [19] Chattooga 7-AA 7-4 31.28 25.40 272
215 [24] Morgan County 8-AAA 4-6 31.21 34.99 184
216 [25] Dawson County 7-AAA 9-3 31.00 20.89 318
217 [20] Lincoln County 7-Div B-A 9-2 30.98 14.72 365
218 [26] Pepperell 5-AAA 7-4 30.98 24.42 282
219 [61] Grovetown 2-AAAAA 5-5 30.92 35.33 183
220 [55] Chattahoochee 6-AAAAAA 1-9 30.87 45.95 76
221 [62] Hiram 5-AAAAA 3-7 30.67 42.73 105
222 [40] North Oconee 8-AAAA 5-6 30.53 35.54 181
223 [41] Baldwin 2-AAAA 4-6 30.33 36.60 164
224 [42] Fayette County 5-AAAA 3-8 30.16 48.60 53
225 [21] Calvary Day 3-Div A-A 9-2 29.95 8.94 401
226 [63] Evans 2-AAAAA 4-6 29.95 33.25 196
227 [27] Jackson County 8-AAA 4-6 29.92 34.64 188
228 [22] Mount Pisgah Christian 6-Div B-A 6-5 29.87 28.93 243
229 [20] Putnam County 4-AA 7-4 29.65 21.87 306
230 [28] Appling County 1-Div A-AAA 5-5 29.29 28.99 242
231 [29] Jenkins 1-Div B-AAA 6-4 28.96 22.86 296
232 [21] Dade County 7-AA 6-5 28.76 29.26 237
233 [22] Manchester 5-AA 8-4 28.53 18.93 332
234 [64] North Atlanta 7-Div B-AAAAA 4-6 28.38 39.81 132
235 [56] Habersham Central 6-AAAAAA 1-9 28.36 46.59 72
236 [65] Harris County 1-AAAAA 2-8 28.31 37.17 159
237 [66] McIntosh 4-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 28.28 37.73 152
238 [23] Dublin 3-AA 6-4 28.26 22.52 299
239 [30] Douglass 4-Div B-AAA 6-4 28.07 23.40 292
240 [43] Redan 6-AAAA 4-6 27.93 29.87 230
241 [44] Ridgeland 7-AAAA 4-7 27.88 31.99 209
242 [57] Duluth 7-AAAAAA 1-9 27.05 56.43 22
243 [45] Henry County 4-Div A-AAAA 4-6 26.98 30.65 219
244 [24] Swainsboro 3-AA 5-6 26.91 31.57 213
245 [25] Union County 8-AA 9-2 26.89 10.62 390
246 [31] Washington County 3-AAA 5-6 26.69 24.64 279
247 [67] Cedar Shoals 8-AAAAA 2-8 26.22 41.62 116
248 [32] East Hall 7-AAA 6-5 25.44 24.07 286
249 [46] Riverdale 4-Div B-AAAA 5-5 24.72 27.72 253
250 [26] Metter 3-AA 6-5 24.67 26.21 264
251 [33] Brantley County 1-Div A-AAA 6-4 24.04 14.56 367
252 [27] Bowdon 5-AA 6-6 23.97 24.91 277
253 [68] Union Grove 4-Div B-AAAAA 1-9 23.91 44.59 91
254 [34] Franklin County 7-AAA 6-5 23.89 23.20 293
255 [47] Troup 5-AAAA 1-9 23.42 47.14 67
256 [35] Maynard Jackson 4-Div A-AAA 6-5 23.41 24.62 280
257 [48] Walnut Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 4-6 23.31 27.97 250
258 [23] Fellowship Christian 6-Div B-A 5-5 23.06 17.49 347
259 [24] First Presbyterian 7-Div A-A 6-5 22.80 18.29 341
260 [49] White County 8-AAAA 3-7 22.77 31.09 215
261 [36] Ringgold 6-AAA 6-5 22.61 18.36 339
262 [28] Pelham 1-AA 6-5 22.57 25.87 267
263 [69] Druid Hills 6-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 22.43 29.14 240
264 [70] Bradwell Institute 3-AAAAA 0-10 21.98 50.07 49
265 [29] B.E.S.T. Academy 6-AA 2-8 21.97 38.71 147
266 [37] Jordan 2-AAA 3-7 21.84 32.25 207
267 [58] Berkmar 8-AAAAAA 0-10 21.68 68.31 3
268 [38] North Clayton 4-Div A-AAA 3-7 21.54 31.91 210
269 [30] McIntosh County Academy 2-AA 4-7 21.40 30.28 223
270 [25] Athens Christian 8-A 6-5 21.34 18.08 343
271 [31] Bacon County 2-AA 5-5 20.87 21.40 311
272 [59] Lakeside (Atlanta) 2-AAAAAA 4-7 20.73 29.97 227
273 [26] Brookstone 4-A 6-5 20.62 17.21 354
274 [71] Woodland (Cartersville) 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-9 20.16 45.47 80
275 [50] Heritage (Ringgold) 7-AAAA 4-6 19.96 24.18 284
276 [32] Gordon Lee 7-AA 4-6 19.89 22.35 301
277 [27] Dooly County 4-A 7-4 19.60 12.59 379
278 [39] West Hall 7-AAA 5-6 19.52 22.21 303
279 [33] Bryan County 2-AA 5-6 19.45 22.32 302
280 [28] Telfair County 2-A 5-6 19.37 20.11 324
281 [29] Wilkinson County 7-Div A-A 6-5 19.22 17.21 353
282 [40] Tattnall County 1-Div A-AAA 5-5 19.21 18.75 335
283 [60] Pope 5-AAAAAA 0-10 19.20 54.41 32
284 [41] Southwest 2-AAA 3-7 19.18 32.57 203
285 [61] Rockdale County 2-AAAAAA 2-8 18.99 44.88 85
286 [34] Greene County 8-AA 5-6 18.94 22.61 297
287 [42] Washington 4-Div B-AAA 3-7 18.78 30.10 225
288 [51] Gilmer 7-AAAA 4-6 18.60 25.72 269
289 [43] Cedartown 5-AAA 2-9 18.60 30.76 218
290 [35] Holy Innocents 6-AA 2-8 18.51 41.17 118
291 [52] Southeast Whitfield 7-AAAA 5-5 18.46 17.38 351
292 [30] Johnson County 3-Div B-A 7-4 18.21 13.02 377
293 [44] Banks County 7-AAA 5-5 17.86 17.61 346
294 [31] Pacelli 4-A 7-4 17.71 11.30 386
295 [53] Monroe Area 8-AAAA 3-7 17.07 33.08 200
296 [45] Fannin County 7-AAA 4-6 17.01 18.68 336
297 [62] Osborne 4-AAAAAA† 3-6 16.74 27.02 258
298 [36] Washington-Wilkes 8-AA 4-7 16.62 25.22 273
299 [54] Dougherty 1-Div B-AAAA 3-5 16.43 30.50 221
300 [32] Twiggs County 7-Div A-A 4-7 16.33 22.00 304
301 [37] Berrien 1-AA 2-8 16.07 33.02 201
302 [55] Whitewater 5-AAAA 2-8 16.06 46.87 69
303 [46] Kendrick 2-AAA 3-7 15.89 32.31 206
304 [38] Bremen 5-AA 4-7 15.39 24.73 278
305 [72] Heritage (Conyers) 8-AAAAA 1-9 14.97 37.66 153
306 [39] Jeff Davis 2-AA 5-5 14.44 13.74 371
307 [63] Campbell 3-AAAAAA 2-8 14.42 36.26 173
308 [47] Towers 4-Div A-AAA 2-8 14.30 29.88 228
309 [73] River Ridge 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-9 14.18 40.46 125
310 [56] Chamblee 6-AAAA 2-8 14.14 32.38 205
311 [33] Walker 6-Div A-A 4-6 13.98 26.93 260
312 [74] Lithia Springs 5-AAAAA 0-10 13.86 44.76 87
313 [57] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4-Div B-AAAA 2-8 13.77 29.87 229
314 [40] Thomasville 1-AA 1-8 13.65 38.88 144
315 [64] Alcovy 2-AAAAAA 1-9 13.47 40.76 119
316 [34] Hebron Christian Academy 8-A 6-4 13.20 10.54 391
317 [75] Richmond Academy 2-AAAAA 2-8 12.91 36.89 161
318 [41] Harlem 3-AA 3-7 12.62 21.61 309
319 [35] Hancock Central 7-Div B-A 4-6 12.43 16.28 358
320 [76] Greenbrier 2-AAAAA 2-8 12.40 36.34 171
321 [77] North Springs 7-Div B-AAAAA 1-9 11.78 39.45 138
322 [42] Northeast 4-AA 2-9 11.54 28.34 246
323 [48] Beach 1-Div B-AAA 5-5 11.47 14.12 370
324 [43] Seminole County 1-AA 3-7 11.22 19.02 331
325 [44] Crawford County 4-AA† 8-2 10.97 -4.46 416
326 [36] George Walton Academy 8-A 3-7 10.82 19.81 326
327 [45] Long County 2-AA 3-7 10.51 19.94 325
328 [78] Cross Creek 2-AAAAA 1-9 10.49 36.31 172
329 [37] Randolph-Clay 1-A 7-4 10.46 4.84 410
330 [49] Lumpkin County 7-AAA 2-8 10.17 21.40 310
331 [79] Dunwoody 6-Div A-AAAAA 3-7 10.13 27.01 259
332 [80] Hardaway 1-AAAAA 1-9 10.12 34.74 186
333 [81] Banneker 6-Div B-AAAAA 0-10 9.92 49.12 51
334 [50] Therrell 4-Div B-AAA 3-7 9.84 22.55 298
335 [38] Treutlen 3-Div B-A 5-5 9.73 11.00 389
336 [39] Hawkinsville 4-A 5-5 9.63 8.57 402
337 [51] Rockmart 5-AAA 2-8 9.59 23.52 290
338 [52] Rutland 2-AAA 1-9 9.31 33.13 199
339 [46] Monticello 4-AA 1-9 9.16 25.54 270
340 [53] North Murray 6-AAA 4-6 8.88 17.28 352
341 [40] Terrell County 1-A 5-5 8.83 10.16 394
342 [54] Murray County 6-AAA 4-6 8.79 16.14 359
343 [55] Toombs County 1-Div A-AAA 2-8 8.39 24.06 287
344 [47] East Laurens 3-AA 4-6 8.37 18.90 334
345 [41] Our Lady of Mercy 5-A 4-6 8.13 17.40 350
346 [56] Josey 3-AAA 6-5 8.08 9.23 398
347 [48] Coosa 7-AA 1-9 8.08 30.62 220
348 [42] Atkinson County 2-A 3-7 7.41 20.20 323
349 [43] St. Francis 6-Div B-A 3-7 6.59 16.77 355
350 [58] Johnson (Gainesville) 8-AAAA† 2-8 6.51 18.31 340
351 [44] Mitchell County 1-A 4-6 6.34 9.92 396
352 [57] McNair 4-Div A-AAA 2-8 5.84 20.56 319
353 [45] Taylor County 4-A 3-7 5.64 12.36 381
354 [49] K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6-AA 1-9 5.44 34.07 190
355 [46] Miller County 1-A 5-5 5.23 7.96 405
356 [59] Pike County 4-Div B-AAAA 1-9 5.11 36.07 177
357 [50] Bleckley County 4-AA 1-9 4.88 27.38 255
358 [47] Greenville 4-A 4-6 4.54 11.91 383
359 [58] Savannah 1-Div B-AAA 3-7 4.22 23.02 295
360 [82] Morrow 4-Div A-AAAAA 1-9 4.13 44.63 89
361 [51] Armuchee 7-AA 2-8 4.10 24.94 276
362 [52] Social Circle 8-AA 4-6 3.86 12.03 382
363 [48] Savannah Country Day 3-Div A-A 3-7 3.77 16.48 357
364 [59] South Atlanta 4-Div A-AAA 1-9 3.55 20.89 317
365 [49] Mount de Sales 7-Div A-A 4-6 3.34 11.85 384
366 [53] Chattahoochee County 5-AA 3-7 2.91 11.00 388
367 [50] North Cobb Christian 6-Div A-A† 6-4 2.73 -2.60 415
368 [60] Madison County 8-AAAA 1-9 2.58 28.46 245
369 [51] Whitefield Academy 6-Div B-A 2-8 2.40 17.71 345
370 [54] Temple 5-AA 3-7 2.29 13.66 373
371 [61] New Hampstead 3-AAAA† 7-3 2.21 -5.57 417
372 [52] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5-A 4-6 1.70 5.07 408
373 [53] Tattnall Square 7-Div A-A 4-6 1.12 5.95 407
374 [60] Haralson County 5-AAA 1-9 0.95 20.41 320
375 [83] Apalachee 8-AAAAA 0-10 0.68 42.51 109
376 [54] Warren County 7-Div B-A 3-7 0.63 14.30 368
377 [62] Albany 1-Div A-AAAA 0-9 0.49 31.85 211
378 [61] East Jackson 8-AAA 1-9 0.26 31.27 214
379 [55] Jenkins County 3-Div A-A 4-6 0.16 3.56 411
380 [56] Wilcox County 2-A 2-8 0.08 19.76 327
381 [62] Butler 3-AAA 4-7 -0.09 11.04 387
382 [57] Portal 3-Div A-A 2-8 -0.12 12.77 378
383 [58] King's Ridge Christian 6-Div B-A 1-9 -0.73 26.08 265
384 [63] LaFayette 7-AAAA 1-9 -2.60 25.89 266
385 [59] Claxton 3-Div A-A 2-8 -2.84 15.82 361
386 [60] Wheeler County 3-Div B-A 3-7 -4.39 8.47 404
387 [55] Oglethorpe County 8-AA 1-9 -4.49 29.43 235
388 [61] Lakeview Academy 8-A 2-8 -5.09 13.36 375
389 [64] Hampton 4-Div A-AAAA 0-10 -5.29 38.99 141
390 [62] Central (Talbotton) 4-A 3-7 -5.41 9.01 400
391 [65] Stone Mountain 6-AAAA 0-10 -6.15 38.11 149
392 [63] Towns County 8-A 2-8 -6.44 17.49 348
393 [63] Westside (Augusta) 3-AAA 2-8 -6.69 17.43 349
394 [84] Clarkston 6-Div A-AAAAA† 1-8 -6.76 29.20 238
395 [64] Lanier County 2-A 1-9 -7.37 21.07 315
396 [85] Forest Park 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-10 -7.40 47.09 68
397 [64] Johnson (Savannah) 1-Div B-AAA 1-9 -7.62 18.45 338
398 [65] Hephzibah 3-AAA 3-7 -7.94 3.11 412
399 [66] Windsor Forest 3-AAAA 1-9 -7.98 30.97 216
400 [66] Coahulla Creek 6-AAA 2-8 -8.67 15.07 363
401 [56] Riverside Military Academy 8-AA 1-9 -9.35 16.61 356
402 [67] Chestatee 8-AAAA 0-10 -10.31 29.82 231
403 [65] Strong Rock Christian 5-A 1-9 -12.10 9.11 399
404 [67] Islands 1-Div B-AAA 1-9 -13.17 15.04 364
405 [66] Baconton 1-A 3-7 -13.91 -1.22 414
406 [67] Georgia Military College 7-Div B-A 1-9 -16.25 12.50 380
407 [68] Providence Christian 8-A 0-10 -16.74 14.62 366
408 [69] Montgomery County 3-Div B-A 0-10 -18.63 11.75 385
409 [57] Groves 2-AA 0-10 -18.78 15.90 360
410 [70] Calhoun County 1-A 0-10 -20.80 10.02 395
411 [68] Glenn Hills 3-AAA 0-10 -22.89 24.08 285
412 [69] Gordon Central 6-AAA 1-9 -24.32 14.24 369
413 [71] Schley County 4-A 0-10 -24.91 9.85 397
414 [72] Glascock County 7-Div B-A† 1-9 -30.12 0.38 413
415 [70] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6-AAA 0-10 -32.08 18.91 333
416 [68] Cross Keys 6-AAAA† 0-5 -32.45 7.16 406
417 [73] Stewart County 1-A† 0-10 -42.79 4.98 409
†-Plays non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 - AAAAAA 90.75 72.25
2 8 - AAAAAA 88.42 65.13
3 7 - AAAAAA 81.59 59.62
4 5 - AAAAAA 76.46 54.86
5 5 - AAAA 69.37 42.39
6 3 - AAAAA 69.13 49.27
7 4 - AAAAA 69.03 44.51
4 - Div A - AAAAA 71.02 43.98
4 - Div B - AAAAA 66.49 44.88
8 4 - AAAAAA 68.73 51.87
9 3 - AAAAAA 63.70 43.58
10 5 - AAAAA 62.92 43.78
11 2 - AAAAA 62.59 36.93
12 6 - AAAAAA 62.39 44.19
13 7 - AAAAA 62.12 43.01
7 - Div A - AAAAA 65.12 46.50
7 - Div B - AAAAA 58.57 39.94
14 2 - AAAAAA 62.08 37.00
15 6 - AAAAA 60.79 39.08
6 - Div B - AAAAA 67.85 47.43
6 - Div A - AAAAA 51.90 33.49
16 3 - AAAA 60.38 45.64
17 1 - AAAA 59.17 39.49
1 - Div B - AAAA 64.55 41.16
1 - Div A - AAAA 54.42 38.24
18 6 - AA 58.76 37.97
19 2 - AAAA 57.44 41.59
20 8 - AAAAA 57.42 37.99
21 8 - AAA 56.90 38.74
22 6 - AAAA 54.13 34.44
23 4 - AAAA 53.77 32.52
4 - Div B - AAAA 57.32 33.35
4 - Div A - AAAA 50.39 31.90
24 1 - AAAAA 52.31 35.77
25 1 - AA 51.66 28.51
26 4 - AAA 51.24 24.95
4 - Div B - AAA 56.48 31.83
4 - Div A - AAA 43.06 18.34
27 2 - AAA 50.53 31.99
28 7 - AAAA 47.84 25.83
29 8 - AAAA 47.60 25.81
30 6 - AAA 47.10 13.09
31 3 - AA 45.47 26.80
32 5 - A 45.07 13.90
33 5 - AAA 43.71 24.01
34 2 - A 43.67 22.69
35 6 - A 43.48 25.29
6 - Div A - A 47.69 33.80
6 - Div B - A 37.69 16.46
36 2 - AA 43.30 20.24
37 7 - AA 42.62 24.84
38 8 - A 41.42 14.97
39 1 - AAA 39.95 20.64
1 - Div A - AAA 44.89 28.10
1 - Div B - AAA 31.09 8.94
40 4 - AA 39.28 21.53
41 8 - AA 37.10 13.43
42 5 - AA 36.21 18.22
43 7 - A 35.79 15.75
7 - Div B - A 37.87 14.53
7 - Div A - A 34.38 16.40
44 7 - AAA 35.68 20.70
45 3 - A 31.65 8.71
3 - Div B - A 32.37 8.40
3 - Div A - A 31.11 8.93
46 4 - A 28.99 10.18
47 3 - AAA 27.84 3.20
48 1 - A 14.91 0.35

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
09/25 Westminster (Atlanta) Therrell 23 - 25 33.97 96.8% 0.082
09/04 Central Gwinnett Mundy's Mill 20 - 35 22.19 90.2% 0.133
08/28 Richmond Academy Westside (Augusta) 20 - 27 21.31 89.4% 0.167
09/04 Bryan County Claxton 7 - 13 20.58 88.7% 0.179
10/16 Gainesville Clarke Central 7 - 44 14.83 81.5% 0.194
10/23 B.E.S.T. Academy K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 26 - 27 18.24 86.1% 0.234
09/25 Swainsboro Harlem 27 - 34 16.00 83.2% 0.236
10/09 First Presbyterian Mount de Sales 21 - 22 17.75 85.5% 0.240
09/18 Pacelli Greenville 12 - 22 14.88 81.6% 0.241
08/28 Crawford County Central (Talbotton) 21 - 30 14.67 81.3% 0.248
09/11 Jonesboro Eagle's Landing 7 - 17 14.26 80.6% 0.251
09/04 Collins Hill South Gwinnett 17 - 20 15.95 83.1% 0.255
09/18 Dalton Cass 8 - 23 13.06 78.7% 0.255
10/16 Dawson County Fannin County 15 - 31 12.28 77.3% 0.265
09/11 Oconee County Putnam County 14 - 20 14.12 80.4% 0.268

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
94.27 09/11 Grayson Archer 26 - 24 7.52 68.0%
90.77 11/27 Archer Mill Creek - 2.03 55.1%
84.80 11/20 Archer McEachern 24 - 21 9.69 72.5%
82.68 11/06 Colquitt County Camden County 33 - 14 14.67 81.3%
80.89 11/20 Roswell Camden County 34 - 15 15.64 82.7%
80.17 11/06 Mill Creek Peachtree Ridge 20 - 17 12.33 77.4%
79.92 08/29 Archer Peachtree Ridge 26 - 10 16.07 83.3%
79.83 09/11 McEachern Peachtree Ridge 6 - 9 1.24 53.1%
74.42 11/06 Stockbridge Northgate 20 - 2 0.28 50.7%
73.69 10/02 Colquitt County Lowndes 42 - 20 22.77 90.7%
73.28 09/04 McEachern Buford 37 - 14 11.57 76.1%
73.01 11/13 McEachern Lowndes 34 - 11 11.83 76.6%
72.97 10/02 Camden County Valdosta 31 - 10 7.92 68.8%
72.97 10/09 Camden County Lowndes 38 - 19 9.80 72.7%
72.64 10/16 Grayson Central Gwinnett 35 - 2 26.28 93.3%

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

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