Maxwell playoff projections after the Second Round
Below are the current Maxwell Ratings' playoff projections for each class.
The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2019 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons.
While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.
All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAAAAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAAAAA team).
Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by 1) region record, 2) head to head, 3) point differential, 4) classification record, and 5) random tie breaker.
Class AAAAAAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the strength of draw, average depth, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | AvgDepth | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lowndes | #1 (1 - AAAAAAA) | 12-0 | 98.96 | 81.40 | 4.19 | 615,865.55 | 0.62 |
| Parkview | #1 (7 - AAAAAAA) | 11-1 | 82.40 | 83.02 | 3.31 | 115,481.41 | 7.66 |
| McEachern | #1 (3 - AAAAAAA) | 12-0 | 84.22 | 87.76 | 2.71 | 75,119.50 | 12.31 |
| North Gwinnett | #1 (6 - AAAAAAA) | 11-1 | 83.61 | 87.94 | 2.66 | 66,186.44 | 14.11 |
| Marietta | #2 (3 - AAAAAAA) | 10-2 | 80.11 | 84.87 | 2.95 | 62,829.98 | 14.92 |
| Grayson | #1 (8 - AAAAAAA) | 11-1 | 80.13 | 89.33 | 2.21 | 27,165.52 | 35.81 |
| Mill Creek | #2 (6 - AAAAAAA) | 10-2 | 76.11 | 85.87 | 2.58 | 25,376.03 | 38.41 |
| Archer | #2 (8 - AAAAAAA) | 9-3 | 72.94 | 86.20 | 2.37 | 11,975.58 | 82.50 |
Class AAAAAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the strength of draw, average depth, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | AvgDepth | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valdosta | #2 (1 - AAAAAA) | 10-2 | 80.26 | 67.11 | 4.13 | 458,809.59 | 1.18 |
| Lee County | #1 (1 - AAAAAA) | 11-1 | 77.55 | 74.62 | 3.08 | 184,287.36 | 4.43 |
| Dacula | #1 (8 - AAAAAA) | 12-0 | 76.04 | 75.20 | 2.90 | 140,480.82 | 6.12 |
| Harrison | #1 (6 - AAAAAA) | 12-0 | 72.67 | 72.60 | 3.23 | 126,269.57 | 6.92 |
| Coffee | #3 (1 - AAAAAA) | 9-3 | 69.68 | 74.07 | 2.86 | 64,524.70 | 14.50 |
| Allatoona | #2 (6 - AAAAAA) | 9-2-1 | 63.74 | 74.61 | 2.47 | 18,712.36 | 52.44 |
| Houston County | #4 (1 - AAAAAA) | 7-5 | 60.19 | 76.22 | 2.24 | 5,362.25 | 185.49 |
| Richmond Hill | #1 (2 - AAAAAA) | 8-3 | 53.22 | 74.37 | 2.08 | 1,553.34 | 642.77 |
Class AAAAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the strength of draw, average depth, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | AvgDepth | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warner Robins | #1 (1 - AAAAA) | 11-1 | 73.37 | 62.20 | 3.92 | 402,078.52 | 1.49 |
| Buford | #2 (8 - AAAAA) | 11-1 | 72.36 | 67.77 | 3.12 | 222,951.60 | 3.49 |
| Carrollton | #1 (7 - AAAAA) | 12-0 | 71.12 | 67.27 | 3.08 | 204,721.11 | 3.88 |
| Dutchtown | #2 (4 - AAAAA) | 11-1 | 63.24 | 66.15 | 3.05 | 83,188.95 | 11.02 |
| Jones County | #1 (4 - AAAAA) | 11-1 | 59.35 | 67.14 | 2.67 | 34,485.38 | 28.00 |
| Griffin | #2 (3 - AAAAA) | 11-1 | 59.71 | 67.90 | 2.62 | 31,729.78 | 30.52 |
| Clarke Central | #1 (8 - AAAAA) | 9-3 | 56.06 | 68.25 | 2.23 | 14,227.97 | 69.28 |
| Starr's Mill | #1 (3 - AAAAA) | 9-3 | 52.01 | 67.72 | 2.31 | 6,616.69 | 150.13 |
Class AAAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the strength of draw, average depth, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | AvgDepth | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandy Creek | #2 (5 - AAAA) | 11-1 | 67.45 | 62.53 | 3.69 | 223,192.31 | 3.48 |
| Cartersville | #1 (5 - AAAA) | 12-0 | 71.66 | 68.29 | 3.02 | 197,242.53 | 4.07 |
| Woodward Academy | #1 (4 - AAAA) | 12-0 | 71.58 | 68.32 | 3.01 | 194,519.86 | 4.14 |
| Marist | #2 (7 - AAAA) | 11-1 | 68.54 | 66.68 | 3.14 | 162,063.37 | 5.17 |
| Blessed Trinity | #1 (7 - AAAA) | 11-1 | 67.87 | 67.23 | 3.05 | 137,050.06 | 6.30 |
| Oconee County | #1 (8 - AAAA) | 11-1 | 62.16 | 67.76 | 2.57 | 49,228.84 | 19.31 |
| West Laurens | #1 (2 - AAAA) | 11-1 | 61.89 | 68.94 | 2.49 | 36,641.20 | 26.29 |
| Madison County | #4 (8 - AAAA) | 6-6 | 36.21 | 68.46 | 2.04 | 61.84 | 16,170.78 |
Class AAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the strength of draw, average depth, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | AvgDepth | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peach County | #1 (4 - AAA) | 11-1 | 70.24 | 61.59 | 3.31 | 334,192.49 | 1.99 |
| Cedar Grove | #1 (5 - AAA) | 10-2 | 68.94 | 62.22 | 3.13 | 277,563.98 | 2.60 |
| Jefferson | #1 (8 - AAA) | 10-1 | 62.47 | 60.45 | 3.20 | 163,534.52 | 5.11 |
| Jenkins | #1 (3 - AAA) | 11-1 | 56.52 | 60.94 | 2.88 | 63,561.52 | 14.73 |
| Crisp County | #1 (1 - AAA) | 9-3 | 57.60 | 62.08 | 2.66 | 62,237.09 | 15.07 |
| Greater Atlanta Christian | #1 (7 - AAA) | 11-1 | 55.80 | 61.30 | 2.79 | 52,859.64 | 17.92 |
| North Murray | #1 (6 - AAA) | 11-1 | 53.03 | 61.79 | 2.57 | 28,199.45 | 34.46 |
| Hart County | #2 (8 - AAA) | 10-2 | 52.06 | 63.01 | 2.45 | 17,851.32 | 55.02 |
Class AA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the strength of draw, average depth, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | AvgDepth | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rabun County | #1 (8 - AA) | 12-0 | 64.36 | 53.48 | 3.80 | 399,603.87 | 1.50 |
| Hapeville Charter | #1 (6 - AA) | 10-1-1 | 61.53 | 56.65 | 3.25 | 229,096.60 | 3.36 |
| Callaway | #1 (5 - AA) | 11-1 | 56.44 | 51.94 | 3.61 | 213,897.03 | 3.68 |
| Brooks County | #2 (1 - AA) | 8-4 | 51.22 | 54.08 | 3.17 | 83,746.01 | 10.94 |
| Dublin | #1 (3 - AA) | 11-1 | 53.71 | 59.38 | 2.46 | 50,678.47 | 18.73 |
| Thomasville | #1 (1 - AA) | 8-4 | 46.25 | 59.49 | 2.18 | 10,705.58 | 92.41 |
| Douglass | #2 (6 - AA) | 11-1 | 41.97 | 56.72 | 2.25 | 7,923.62 | 125.20 |
| Metter | #1 (2 - AA) | 10-2 | 38.47 | 55.91 | 2.29 | 4,348.84 | 228.95 |
Class A Public
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the strength of draw, average depth, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | AvgDepth | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irwin County | #1 (2 - A) | 10-0 | 64.17 | 43.54 | 4.35 | 650,801.15 | 0.54 |
| Clinch County | #4 (2 - A) | 10-1 | 54.65 | 49.57 | 3.44 | 208,978.95 | 3.79 |
| Mitchell County | #3 (1 - A) | 10-1 | 45.91 | 48.29 | 3.23 | 91,808.86 | 9.89 |
| Pelham | #6 (1 - A) | 10-1 | 41.15 | 50.22 | 2.64 | 31,093.46 | 31.16 |
| Lincoln County | #7 (7 - A) | 9-2 | 35.25 | 49.46 | 2.78 | 12,237.88 | 80.71 |
| Marion County | #2 (4 - A) | 9-2 | 30.24 | 49.29 | 2.49 | 4,107.78 | 242.44 |
| Manchester | #9 (4 - A) | 10-2 | 30.86 | 56.30 | 2.04 | 843.37 | 1,184.72 |
| Warren County | #21 (7 - A) | 8-4 | 23.07 | 56.04 | 2.04 | 128.54 | 7,778.43 |
Class A Private
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the strength of draw, average depth, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | AvgDepth | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holy Innocents | #2 (5 - A) | 11-0 | 69.15 | 53.57 | 4.08 | 500,040.79 | 1.00 |
| Athens Academy | #3 (8 - A) | 11-0 | 67.30 | 63.24 | 3.05 | 209,603.30 | 3.77 |
| Eagle's Landing Christian | #6 (5 - A) | 10-1 | 64.94 | 64.92 | 2.70 | 125,326.78 | 6.98 |
| Fellowship Christian | #4 (6 - A) | 11-0 | 54.41 | 55.97 | 3.33 | 101,639.74 | 8.84 |
| Wesleyan | #9 (5 - A) | 10-2 | 49.92 | 56.25 | 3.24 | 51,336.75 | 18.48 |
| Hebron Christian | #12 (8 - A) | 8-4 | 45.35 | 58.99 | 2.40 | 11,021.82 | 89.73 |
| Savannah Christian | #16 (3 - A) | 8-3 | 35.42 | 58.79 | 2.20 | 1,022.33 | 977.16 |
| Mount Paran Christian | #23 (6 - A) | 7-4 | 23.95 | 64.63 | 2.01 | 8.48 | 117,908.23 |
